Until a few weeks ago, my Twitter feed was filled with Flying Circus taunts about an imminent housing bull market. Today there is only a few sad posts referencing vaccines:
Oxford coronavirus vaccine shows promise in early trial https://t.co/pU9BAfMRG6 via @financialtimes
— christopher joye (@cjoye) July 20, 2020
Joye’s original forecast was that by September the boom would be back:
So I will repeat what I have publicly and privately advised the many folks who have inquired about my forecast for the $7 trillion-plus residential real estate market: home values are unlikely to fall materially and, in my central case, will either move sideways or at most fall by up to 5 per cent over the next three to six months, after which the robust cyclical boom will resume.
Then the robust forecast turned “low conviction” in May:
For the time being, however, we are happy to bet against every other mainstream analyst on the performance of Aussie housing over the next 12 months, albeit that this cannot be a high conviction call given the unprecedented nature of the 1-in-100 year Great Virus Crisis.
With only two months to go until the boom is back, even as prices crash, it is surely time for an update from Chris Joye’s Flying Circus.
