Victoria’s COVID-19 infections stabilise

Victoria has recorded another 357 COVID-19 infections, up from yesterday’s 300:

However, rates of infection look to be past their peak:

NSW recorded 15 new infections, up from yesterday’s 7. However, their infection rates also appear to be past their peak:

There are now 3,995 active COVID-19 cases in Victoria, 96% of the nation’s total. NSW now has 145 active cases, 3.5% of the nation’s total:

Since the pandemic began in March, Victoria has recorded 7,744 COVID-19 infections, equating to nearly 120 cases per 100,000 persons:

Victoria’s overall infection rate is now almost triple NSW’s, with its curve remaining frightening.

Leith van Onselen
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Comments

  1. So all good now?
    Politicians will claim lockdown victory despite no evidence of even any corelation, people will get back to normal until next wave and next lockdown…
    Sudney with hundreds of cases did way better than Melbourne with almost a month long lockdowns

    • “lockdown victory despite no evidence of even any corelation”

      What’s wrong with you?

      • Lockdowns have been shown to NOT be associated with reduced covid19 deaths or critical cases

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    So what happens next? If they stabilise but don’t reduce do we wear masks and stay at home forever?

    • They have to want the numbers to come down. There is no way consumer confidence recovers with infection all over the place. Even if they get the numbers down a bit, and people can start earning a living again, all you need is some other breakout and it all stops. This is as bad as the early 1990s in Victoria already. Hardly anyone is hiring, those that do are overrun with exceptional candidates. People in jobs are terrified of losing them or losing incomes. So suppression without elimination means a rolling depression until we can get a vaccine. The only way out of this is to eliminate the virus, wear masks all the time and have a near closed border for people, and then be able to restart the economy properly without restriction. Which was a real possibility in late May except for Victoria completely stuffing up the quarantine. Have to wonder whether army run quarantine on Christmas Island is the only access into Australia. In some respects the hope remains for a vaccine to be available in mass quantities in first half 2021. We still need to develop our own as a vaccine is a hell of a political bargaining chip. And we can control the quality standard then also ……

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Yep. I don’t buy their numbers now, I keep seeing a lot of ambulance activity.

    • Very few places have the luxury of random testing, which you would think would be the standard………all figures are being rorted everywhere, especially the deaths are being disguised by people who wish to pretend there is low risk in business as usual

      https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/random-testing-in-indiana-shows-covid-19-is-6-times-deadlier-than-flu/ar-BB1739NV

      If we had earned money economies instead of borrowed money economies we could pause them more easily……in this as in everything else we are ruled by the debt.

      • DominicMEMBER

        An economy built on debt-based consumption was always unsustainable — debt funded consumption just brings the future forward, leaving the future somewhat, er, empty.

        • That’s why I am interested in seeing how France pulls through this diaster. Shelter is reasonable and private debts I assume are proportionally lower.

          • DominicMEMBER

            The reason for France’s slightly different situation is that taxes are much higher, the Govt plays a much larger role in their economy (State activities are roughly 50% of their entire economy). You also have the state owning stakes in many of the country’s biggest companies. It’s a quasi-socialist set-up that ultimately does little positive for the long-term economic future. The French economy is undynamic relative to the more free-market oriented economies like the US and UK. The Govt there spends much of its time protecting the large multi-nationals (in which it has an interest) from competition and thus there is little incentive (or scope) for brand new companies to break through. In the meanwhile these once quite dynamic companies just whither on the vine, as you’d expect.

        • RE the below….
          Just noting that both the examples UK + US are debt based consumption economies so the compare contrast still stands as bing of interest.

          Thanks for those facts, I had no idea really with any precision, I knew is was quasi socialist ish.

  3. Can I ask which state is testing more ??
    I find it very hard to believe there isn’t more in SYD than what they are telling us

    • They test a lot in sydney buy yield is just so low
      125k test 77 positive last week – 0.06% probably the lowest yield in the world
      Virus for some reason is not spreading well in sydney at the moment … that may change but this time around outbreak is unlikely

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    My advice to old people:

    Move further out
    Get a better immune system
    Learn resilience…

    • If they want to spend rest of lives like lonely rats hiding in a hole
      Chance of dying from covid19 (once they catch it ) for a 80 year old is under 5%, chance of dying in next 12 months without covid is over 7%
      So covid hardly increase chance from 7% to maybe 9% (those more likely to die from covid are those in poor health that have greater chance of dying anyway)

      • Mortality rate for over 79 from covid is 7.8%. so according to your fevered math the combined mortality rate should be about 15%. You seem to have an irrational hatred of older people that you prefer they die. Assuming you ever make it to that age with your eugenics ideas I hope you get to experience being put on the scrap heap.

        • Fatality rate is between 6% and 8% among symptomatic cases depending where but combined mortality is not just simple sum because some of those people dying with coronavirus would die regardless like many of the people who died here in Australia who had terminal cancer or other serious conditions.
          Also there are estimates that even among very old there is large proportion of asymptomatic cases up to 50% which would make fatality under 4%

          • You seem to have this irrational idea that because someone with an underlying condition might have died sometime in the future, then those people who die as a result of covid should not be counted as dying from covid. So at some point in the future you will die because you suffer from a terminal condition called aging. but if you die now as result of covid then we should not count it as a coivd death. So using your methodology the only people we should count as dying from covid are the subset of the human population who are immortal, then contract covid and die. Congratulations. you have just proved the sum total of world wide covid deaths is zero. Feel free to organised an immediate protest in the middle of the cbd along with your eugenics and economic rationalist mates to inform everyone. But when you do i expect you to not wear masks or use hand sanitizer or social distance because you have just proved the covid death count is a complete hoax.

          • reusachtige – being a Trumptard style conspiracy theorist is no longer the “alternative” view here. It’s the majority.

    • LOL. Sound advice from the school of Joe Hockey.
      Also I would add: old people don’t need to go outside anyway.

  5. tripsterMEMBER

    Victoria’s COVID-19 infections stabilise

    Too early be calling the peak. There is a pattern with the infection numbers – not just in Aus but a common trend globally. The highest number for new cases is usually reported on a Wed or Thur, with the number then dropping towards the end of the week and into the weekend. We won’t know if it is the peak until another week.

      • Agreed. VIC new cases per MIGHT be topping out, or might not yet. 7 day trend still up but not as big a rate as before. But there is so much volatility in the daily numbers that we could get a 500+ day and make the “topped out”call look silly. Especially as aged care facilities are so vulnerable to staff getting infected and then spreading it. Saw that in Sydney a couple of months ago and now seeing it here.
        Sydney … they are where we were a month ago but have the advantage of seeing where it was coming from.

      • The FNG.MEMBER

        And look how many people know her and are dying!! Three funerals in two days!?!?
        She’s going to get a nickname.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Or what. (flippantly)
        You really aren’t Catholic after all (jk)
        It’s not like the contract tracing team/s went round all the churches with her picture and asked “Have you seen this woman?”. They asked her. She told them. CCP (et al) agent owns up to TWO of them. (serious).

        Reason for posting the serious bit is only because don’t want other people carrying on about that subject specifically (intentional virus spread). Nothing sus. Other people probably less able to nuance discussion. IYKWIM.

        Edit: don’t let that stop you from making a totally unnecessary over the top apology, if you’re so inclined.
        😁

        • Your logic is impeccable.

          So if a CCP agent owns up to five… she actually went to…?

          😁

        • PS – yes, IKWYM 😁

          Except – nuance?! What even is that?

          I presume it’s what you need if your ants die.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Nuance is what you get when your parents’ siblings get married to someone identifying as female.

            Or in skippy’s case, when they marry each other.

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So now that it’s over they better open everything back up before their destruction is irreversible.

    • Don’t forget : no relations, no massages, no parties..
      Imagine the pressure they’re under

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Fckn oath I wanna do targa high country this year life’s too fckn short excuse da pun

  7. bolstroodMEMBER

    Vic 300 yesterday, 357 today
    Sydney 7 yesterday, 15 today
    still looks like it’s going up.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Of the 15, 6 is from hotel quarantine, 9 in community transmission. So it’s not that bad.

      There is however one super spreader who attended 4 different church services, and we need to wait a few days to see how many end up infected from that person alone. In South Korea, one super spreader ended up infecting 10K+ fellow believers in a cult.

  8. From my page (feel free to cross post if you want).

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/39694335

    Melbourne now currently has 3,995 active cases – and the stage 3 lockdown and now wearing masks appears to be having next to no effect on bringing the daily case tally down.

    It’s certainly looking to me that Melbourne has lost it’s virus fight – with nearly all areas of Melbourne now getting strong increases over recent days on the back of rampant tramission still happening in workplaces across the city.

    Another 6-7 days of 500+ cases a day – and it may be time to admit that Melbourne has lost it’s virus fight and focus our energy on how to protect the rest of the country instead.

    Point 1 – We have transmission issue with transport and logistics

    We have two LGA’s approaching 500 active cases each (Brimbank & Wyndham), and another two over 200 active cases (Hume & Whittlesea) – and no direction for people who work within those areas to stop going to work for two weeks.

    These four LGA areas contain two of Melbourne’s three main warehouse corridors – with a large share of Melbourne’s freight task and warehouse activities coming from businesses operating within the boundaries of these two areas. Most of the cheap labour that works in these warehouses comes from the ajoining suburbs too. We are seeing this issue on a smaller scale for the third main warehouse corridor in south east around Dandenong and Casey.

    There is no plan to close down logistics for two weeks – so as long as we are still sending thousands of warehouse and logistics workers to their workplaces over the next two weeks – the numbers are going to keep spiking. It’s also important to note that mMany of the people that live within these four problem LGA’s also work for logistics companies that require them to drive trucks all over Greater Melbourne, Regional Victoria and also Interstate.

    We already know that the Sydney “Crossroads” outbreak was caused by a transport worker – and I have no doubt that the other cases we are seeing around regional Victoria are being caused by transport workers too. The harsh reality is that once a driver leaves his depot – he needs to find somewhere to have a shit eventually – potentially infecting a toilet seat – which brings me to my next point.

    Point 2 – Workplace PPE means nothing when everyone is still sharing the same toilet seat

    It’s all well and good to socially distance in the workplace, wear masks and use santiser on your hands – but if you are all shitting in the same toilet and putting your bare arses on the same seat – isn’t that a huge problem?

    We know the virus can live on surfaces – but do workplaces go in and sanitise the toilet seat after every last person has backed one out? Absolutely not. I am growing convinced that the reason that the virus spreads in workplaces is through peoples buttholes as they are all using the same toilet seats – with no real sanitisation happening to clean things properly between every flush.

    Without fixing the toilet issue (or gluing peoples buttholes shut for 8 hours while on shift) – we are going to continue to see the spread of the virus throughout workplaces – and with most of Melbourne still going to work because every a shoe shop attendant is classified as “essential” – we are going to see “workplace transmission” continue to escalate dramatically over the coming weeks.

    Point 3 – Last lockdown people were scared – this time they don’t give a fuck

    The third point to understand is that this time despite the drastically climbing toll in Melbourne – no one seems to really give a fuck. There is still plenty of traffic on the road on weekends (much more so than last lockdown), many people are still visiting relatives on the quiet, or even visiting the dentists or the hairdresser.

    A common party trick I’m hearing is for people to park their cars around the block when visiting friends and family – and then walk around the block to the house. So long as you quickly go inside with minimal noise, the neighbours don’t generally see it happen – and there is no tell tale car parked right out the front or in the driveway.

    Then we have people on Facebook bragging about getting through roadblocks, and thousands of others not caring about any of the rules either. As the days roll on – fewer and fewer people in Melbourne have any respect for Premier Dan Andrews (with the Murdoch Media and Tim Smith fuelling that) – and people are no longer intimidated by the virus given there are only 200 in hospital (out of nearly 5,000 active cases) and the only people they are hearing about dying on the news are those aged 80 and over.

    In summary

    Once you understand the three points above – you quickly understand that Melbourne has next to no fucking chance of containing / eliminating the virus – especially now it is approaching 5,000 active cases. Best case scenario now is for Melbourne to keep new cases at under 500 per day – but you also can’t keep people in lockdown forever as well.

    I suspect that Melbourne will go down the path of India which ended it’s strict lockdown after 47 days (8 weeks) after they discovered it was actually having no benefit anyway.

    Melbourne is 3 weeks into it’s lockdown with active cases continuing to soar – and we may get to a point within the next week that it’s obvious that the Melbourne “virus lockdown and masks” isn’t working – and by the middle of August the government is contemplating opening things back up – which they will be forced to likely to by the 1st of September regardless for the sake of the greater national economy.

    Does anyone else see it playing out that way?

    • DominicMEMBER

      Not sure about the toilet seat as I wfh and anyway wipe the seat and put cover down when using public facilities (rare as that may be). In any case, we are essentially locking down in the hope / belief that a vaccine will be developed and be available soon.

      But if not, what then? That’s the trillion $ question.

      • Yes. People’s buttholes don’t actually touch the seat. And I can’t imagine you can emit (or absorb) the virus through your thighs. I reckon if you don’t touch your face and mouth and you wash your hands fcken well upon exit you are probably fine. Mask might help too if someone was in there right before you!

        • DominicMEMBER

          I reckon a mask is a great idea if you commit a crime against humanity in the toilets at work (hopefully no one recognizes you!), or indeed if you fart in the lift and the best looking chick in the office gets in 😉

        • I always wipe the seat with toilet paper before sitting on it. This serves the dual purpose of cleaning the seat as well as checking that toilet paper is available. For bacterial infections, research from the 1980’s showed that flushing with the seat down might, ironically, increase the spread of infection, because it concentrates the bacteria and their food source into larger droplets in which it can multiply. I guess this wouldn’t happen for viruses, though, because they are unable to reproduce outside the body.

    • Seems depressingly realistic to me.

      On the topic of toilets and flush aerosol fumes etc. I found out the cleaners at work had mentioned that transmission risk and had requested that signs be put up walking everyoneto close the toilet lid before flushing. I alsosuggested that same. I was told that they decided not to put those signs up as they thought that #1we had enough signs up trying to encourage behaviour change that they were afraid of overloading people, and #2they didn’t think it was a high transmission risk given that community spread was basically zero. This was in miss June when we were getting ready for a June 22 reopen. It’s possible that will change, not sure when our council pool/gym is going to reopen though, depressingly we only managed 2.5 weeks before we were closed down again. Some casuals didn’t even manage to get a single shift during that time given we had a very much reduced amt of workavailable. Argh it’s depressing to think about all the implications on other people’s lives too much (I’m very fortunate in my situation) Gonna bury my head in a book

      • DominicMEMBER

        Popstar, I was going to suggest, on top of your knitting, you try your hand at writing!

        It’s a bit of a skill but if you have a degree of imagination it can be a lot of fun — you can create any situation you like. The sky’s the limit.

        (And, yes, to your dilemmas re toilets, being a lady you have no choice but to sit, so I sympathise). I had a male colleague once who downright refused to use the facilities at work – under any circumstances – except to pee. He must’ve had some uncomfortable days at work!

        • Oh you made me laugh! When I was a kid and teenager I wanted to be an author so badly. Mainly because I liked writing and got some good feedback from teachers etc, and because for some reason I thought authors took lots of long walks along deserted beaches. I haven’t written in about 15 years but I have toyed with the idea of getting back into it. I did write a few kids stories while in Beijing, but with the whole cultural appropriation thing I have kind of been put off (they didn’t really have people in them, but they were set in a northern Chinese city).

          I’m not sure about the females you know, but my understanding is most women squat hover over the toilet when they go, so it should be contactless, except for taking a dump, when I presume they all put down a layer of toilet paper.

          But here is my refusing to use the toilet story. I backpacked around western China with a colleague (we both quit at the same time in London and decided to go traveling together). She was Swedish and we decided to travel through Qinghai, western Sichuan in all the Tibetan areas. She’d lived in Switerland and France as well as the UK. It was a bit of a disaster traveling with her, but that’s another story. Anyway one day we were on a 8 hour bus ride through western Sichuan. These buses rarely stop for any breaks which is tough when you’re at altitude and need to drink a lot to ensure you don’t get altitude sickness (mainly killer headaches). I think we had 2 toilet stops the whole ride, you can ask the driver to stop, but most people don’t cos they get extremely cranky. A lot of the older Tibetans still wore traditional clothing so they could just squat in full view of everyone and no one would see anything with their Chuba covering them. The Han, young Tibetans in western dress and little old me had to get far enough out of sight to pull our pants down and pee. Anyway Swedish friend just could not relax enough to pee outside. She could only pee in a toilet no matter how stomach turning disgusting they were. Obviously I would prefer to pee outside that in a Chinese public toilet, esp the ones you’d find in western China which were a whole other exponential levels worse than those in eastern China. I made numerous offers to get the bus to stop but poor Ann had to hang on for 6+ hours before she could pee at the bus stop in Kanding. I was seriously afraid she’d get some kind of bladder infection or do herself some damage. It was a disgusting toilet but not as bad as the bus station toilets in Xiahe in Gansu which are legendary for their foulness. I had never been more glad of my Aussie childhood camping etc which meant I have no problem doing any of that business outside! I was very surprised that a Swede who grew up in northern Sweden would have this issue, but you learn new things about the world every day

      • slatteryMEMBER

        Actually that study was cautious in the implications of its findings. For example, it cited evidence that ‘current smokers were associated with a reduced risk of COVID-19 related mortality.’ It didn’t conclude from this that more people should take up smoking, but that ‘further study’ would be a good idea.

        The study did not prove that lockdowns are pointless, but suggested that there are a whole lot of factors that need to be considered when trying to control the virus.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes, riveting questions worthy of much consideration I’m sure. What I want to know the answer to… is how you got all those actual f words past the filter?

      • I am asking myself the same question – I guess perhaps because it’s a direct cross post from my own website in my own words.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Agreed. Who wants the State to stick a 5G microchip up their hooter? More power to this young lady who appears to have her head screwed …. on.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      what liberties? Australia doesn’t have a bill of rights.
      Both of them make a lot of noise and use a lot of words. Why do libertarians always use so many words?

  9. call me ArtieMEMBER

    Testing:
    The third point to understand is that this time despite the drastically climbing toll in Melbourne – no one seems to really give a fuck. There is still plenty of traffic on the road on weekends (much more so than last lockdown), many people are still visiting relatives on the quiet, or even visiting the dentists or the hairdresser.

  10. Doctors in Royal Melbourne hospital with covid patients working 12 days in 14. Pulled back from post maternity leave.
    The hospitals are at the pointy end, no thought on what happens as staff and doctors are infected and work load increases with fewer.