VIC records 723 new COVID-19 infections, NSW 18

Victoria has officially recorded 723 new COVID-19 infections – a new daily record – alongside a record 13 deaths (all elderly):

There are now also 34 people in Victorian ICU.

Today’s surge suggests that Victoria’s infection rate is yet to peak:

NSW, by contrast, recorded 18 new COVID-19 infections, down from 19 yesterday.

While overall infections are accumulating, the rate of community transmission is flat in NSW:

Moreover, NSW is managing infections far better than Victoria:

There are now 5,520 active COVID-19 infections in Victoria, 96% of the nation’s total. NSW has 209 active infections, 3.6% of the nation’s total:

Since the pandemic first began, Victoria has recorded 9,998 COVID-19 infections, almost triple the 3,736 recorded in NSW:

 

Victoria’s infection rate has now hit 140 per 100,000 residents, more than triple NSW’s 43 per 100,000 residents:

The nightmare continues…

Leith van Onselen

Comments

    • Yeah I rubbished that at the time, there is clearly a varying pattern of high and low days each week and making calls based on a single high or low day is pretty risky.

      That said, while it still looks linear, today is a concerning number for anyone that worries it might turn exponential.

      As for NSW… hmm. Part of me wonders if mildly ill people there might be wary of getting tested because they don’t want to get locked down. So they are not self reporting. Whereas Vic is already locked down (or meant to be) so that disincentive to report doesn’t exist.

      • how do you mean “for anyone that worries it might turn exponential” – it’s already exponential – for more than a month with fairly stable coefficients
        it took 13 days to double between 25/06 and 8/07 (day when lockdown started) and 11 days between 19/07 and today
        it can’t be more exponential than that
        even if we had 400 cases today and 400 tomorrow it would have doubled in 12 days

        • Nope. Wrong shape for exponential. Still linear. Basically still a straight line. I mean, I understand your members, but remember today could be an outlier, need to be careful not to cherry pick dates for doubling.

          But today might not be an outlier, and yep if things accelerate from here it could go exponential.

          • you are definitely struggling with the terms
            here is a reminder from wiki
            As functions of a real variable, exponential functions are uniquely characterized by the fact that the growth rate of such a function (that is, its derivative) is directly proportional to the value of the function.
            The characteristic property of linear functions is that when the input variable is changed, the change in the output is proportional to the change in the input.

            input in this case is time

            it takes almost constant ~10-11 days to double number of cases for quite a while

      • Respectfully, I did disagree, because there are higher and lower individual days but the high days were consistently higher and the low days were also almost all rising too, ie I would ignore the single day results which are quite volatile and focus on the constantly rising overall pattern.

        My post yesterday:

        “It still looks like linear growth, a very steady succession of gradually higher lows and higher highs on the chart. I don’t agree with Leith that we can call “past the peak” yet. ”

        (Edit: maybe “rubbished” was a bit strong, I would say I gently disagreed!) 😁

          • No. From 4/7 until yesterday it was a straight line. The curve is not curved.

            Today is a big jump but could be an outlier. It’s one day in a volatile data set.

            Soon we will know. For now it is not exponential.

          • frag outMEMBER

            For Arrow and the next battle of semantics: A straight line is a curve of infinite radius.

          • so you base your estimates on your visual perception of the curve?
            every exponential function looks linear in the part that leads to the current top value

            try changing the scale
            clearly you didn’t spend much time on math classes LOL

          • Love it frag.

            Good on ya DocX. Let’s wait and see. We aren’t there yet but we might get there.

      • We all want it over Leith. Dow theory or an MA will keep you safer on the charting though, & even then there’s no guarantees with the randomness of testing, & all these entitled free radicals roaming around.

      • How about a blow off top on today’s figures? Geez I don’t like it, trying to sort out sewage volcano after effects in my albert Park semi posh hellhole as I search for rental home well away, Agents prices given to unit downstairs…vacant 3 months since the mouse plague of 750$. Versus owner saying rent it for 500$…apprised prospective tenants on way out to inspect dirty 3 room including living room with new bad kitchen plus bathroom for 670$ in bad southern north fitzroy. Agent standing out, bloodsuckers. Makes a tent look damn good well away from covid and dirt of the city.

    • “While overall infections are accumulating, the rate of community transmission is flat in NSW”

      Should read:

      While overall infections are accumulating, the rate of KNOWN community transmission is flat in NSW

      NSW should also mandate face masks now.

      • this last event has been going on in NSW for weeks now, if there was any significant spread even numbers in hospitals would be high already

        NSW should also mandate face masks now.
        because they worked so well in Melbourne and elsewhere or because you are selling them?

      • Why do we always have to go for mask fetishization?

        What about larger venues need to have their air/con adjusted to provide maximum fresh air/exhausting of stale air.
        Consideration given to more use of overnight UV sterilisation etc.
        Any number of innovative ideas, rather than just masks, which unless you are sick have their own problems. Watching people handle their mask all the time is disgusting. The guy at the supermarket last night, case in point. He was wearing a mask but handled every orange on the stand. Then we turn around and wonder why things spread.

    • As I said yesterday, there are huge holes in Victoria’s response that we learned from Dan Andrew;s press conference On Tues.

      Yesterday we learned that people who test positive and are fully contagious are allowed to leave home ‘for exercise’ unsupervised as often as they want.

      This is absolutely crazy.

      We also learned that close contacts of a confirmed case are not tested. Say the spouse and kids of a case. They have to quarantine at home for 14 days (with the confirmed case, so they are basically guaranteed to catch it from them).

      By not testing close contacts of a confirmed case, who are likely to have caught it from them, we don’t go on to test the second person’s close contacts.

      Hundreds of cases and entire transmission chains must be missed by this crazy policy. We’re not testing the people most likely to have it.

      The VIC government is incompetent.

  1. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Haven’t got a location update for the 18 cases in NSW yet. 2 are from hotel quarantine, and seems to be concentrated in the SW, although the Apollo restaurant cluster is growing. Personally I’ll be only buying takeaway until the number goes down.

    The jump in Victoria is mostly people in age care. The court dealing with probate will be very busy in the next few months.

  2. When you typically find 50+ cases per infected nursing home, it only takes a few new outbreaks to shift the numbers by a few hundred. Eventually we will run out of private nursing home to infect at this rate.

      • once all nursing homes and hospitals get infected there will be no need to prevent the spread

        the whole purpose of measures is to prevent spread among vulnerable, once that happens what’s the point? when that happens this failed government should start buying alcohol for covid19 parties

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Poor people (with trash diets and existing health problems are vulnerable)
          Anyone that isn’t elderly with an existing pre-condition is vulnerable.
          People who need to catch public transport for long distances (the outer suburbs) and who are already rundown are vulnerable.

          The elderly in nursing homes are simply the most vulnerable. Plenty of demographic groups to tick off yet.

        • I am GrootMEMBER

          OK Gigi. Never mind cancer patients on chemo or any number of medical conditions which suppress the immune system or require medications which do the same. Never mind the hypertensives or the diabetics. The numbers add up when you start to look at others who might be at an increased risk of nasty effects from this virus. Let alone that we are still learning about the virus itself.

          But your I’m ok Jack, bugger the rest of you attitude should see you through alright, which is all that really matters eh?

    • Sounds like those two delightful Victorian lasses who were infected when they snuck across the Qld border had about a week’s head start of spreading it before they got caught.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        To be fair, they were a couple of Brizvegas’s finest who popped down to Melbourne for a little shoplifting of lux handbags and a couple of parties. But yes, your point is valid. They have had plenty of time to share the love back home in Qld.

  3. the long night is over

    the crown of government is tarnished, but that will fade in time

    the blm protests; a fever dream

    covid 19; a horrible nightmare

    and like everything else such things will only be dimly remembered upon waking to their normal lives

    in the end all sins are forgiven; even ours

    • true, despite so many freaking out now, almost all of people will be making jokes about covid19 in a year or two

      if we did in March what we said we are going to do (flatten the curve) we would probably mostly be over by now and slowly start joking about it

  4. This will be the Monday/Tuesday test results. The low number yesterday was weekend testing I would bet. Typical lazy Australian behaviour of throwing a sickie on Monday. Due to COVID you get out of work if you are tested and then have to isolate…sick pay days.

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