VIC records 627 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 21 new cases

The official COVID-19 data has been released with Victoria recording 627 new infections versus NSW’s 21:

Additional key data for Victoria includes:

  • 8 more deaths (all aged over 50);
  • 928 active cases in aged care; and
  • 1030 health workers infected.

Three weeks after lockdown, Melbourne’s infections continue to increase:

Worryingly, the virus is spreading fast through the community, with locally acquired cases continuing to grow:

After showing stability, NSW’s locally acquired infection rate has begun to tick up:

Even so, NSW is doing a far better job controlling the virus than Victoria did at the comparable time:

There are now 5,956 active COVID-19 cases in Victoria, 96% of the nation’s total. NSW has 229 active cases, 3.7% of the nation’s total:

Since the pandemic began, Victoria has recorded 10,577 COVID-19 cases, roughly triple NSW’s 3,756 cases:

Victoria’s infection rate is just under 160 people per 100,000 residents, more than triple NSW’s 46 per 100,000:

A public health disaster is unfolding in Victoria.

How long will the Government wait until moving to stage 4 restrictions?

Leith van Onselen

Comments

    • not sure this time around
      NSW has substantial number of imported cases on the loose for months but it’s not taking off
      I still think conditions are not right at the moment … maybe in a month or few

      it’s going to be interesting to see if conditions are right in QLD

      • News said their phones were confiscated for location tracing. It was the only way they find out about where these traitors actually went. One of them even completely refused to answer any questions. I hope they all get jail time. Of course the the family members of these degenerates insist its all racism and they are being targeted because of that.
        This is why the WA border needs to stay closed.There are too many people like this who will lie and scam to cross borders.

        • I am GrootMEMBER

          “Imagine if you have something like that, you don’t have any support and people treat you like a serious criminal.”

          Err, she is a serious criminal.

          “She’s very sad. She is my daughter. She’s not an animal.”

          Maybe, but remorse would probably be more appropriate. And? No she isn’t – an animal would not conduct itself in such a wilfully disgraceful manner.

          Doesn’t sound like Mum’s done much to help her little darling become an adult who takes responsibility for her actions.

  1. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Shift the NSW chart left by a week and it looks very similar to the Victorian one.

    The Crossroad hotel cluster is contained, however the Thai Rock cluster continues to expand, and the Potts Point cluster is getting bigger as well. Social distancing in restaurant obviously haven’t worked, and it may actually be better to limit meals to 45 minutes sessions. There seems to be a relationship between how long someone is at the place, and many people end up being infected.

  2. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    This is absoloutley game over. 100 people found not to be at home isolating in Melbourne while KNOWINGLY Covid positive.

    Forget going to another footy game/festival/concert/OS holiday for the next few years. Rolling semi-permanrnt lockdowns it is folks.

    If I was in health care, I’d be heading towards the exit quicksmart. Hospitals gonna be smashed. You may care about taking care of people but many certainly don’t seem to GAF about you.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        Wait.. Normal new Zealand? Or “normal” new York.

        Cos you still can’t go for a sit down dinner in new York. Let alone go watch the footy. You can go to the botanical Gardens again though which is lovely..

        • that’s because NYC has lunatic major and governors in charge
          with so many deaths NYC is clearly free to play any sport in front of as many spectators and nothing will happen

      • One of the articles yesterday showed quite a few variants of the virus so not sure the immunity argument has much foundation anymore.

        Personally, I am not for the high degree lockdowns and think the cure is worse than the disease. Nature will always mutate, so many examples globally. We wont outrun or out lockdown this thing forever. NZ’s success is temporary in my view…unless they 100% isolate…forever.

        • all viruses that spread among people mutate as much
          so far no case of reinfection has been discovered, only some cases where people tested positive than negative than positive but with false test results running at 30% or even 70% if done over 2 weeks after initial infection that’s useless
          so far none has been reinfected with worsening covid symptoms and positive test after the recovery

        • Considering a recent study showed heart inflammation in 80% of cases months after recovery (only 30% who sick enough to be hospitalized) you might want to reconsider letting it rip. You might find yourself dying of heart disease well before retirement. No wonder people report being fatigued for months after infection.

    • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

      Yes, remember that stat they threw around in the beginning about requiring 8 out of 10 people to cooperate to have a chance of “flattening the curve”. Never.Going.To.Happen.In.Oz

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Agree. It’s interesting to see The Age now confirm a doctor in his 30s is now in ICU with Covid. I recall seeing one of MB readers tipping us that 2 young doctors are In ICU, not just one

  3. Victoria and Australia still tracking 1.0% CFR

    So what’s the real IFR/mortality?

    70% are asymptomatic
    But there will be some asymptomatic cases captured by testing because they are known contacts or whatever
    That will be offset by some symptomatic cases who don’t think to test (or would refuse anyway – ie 5g nutcases, contract/casual workers etc)

    so probably the IFR 0.3% or so

        • It’s also very easy to move the goal posts.

          These lockdowns were initially meant to reduce the strain on hospitals for the ICU inpatients.

          Now you’re saying it’s to limit long-term damage from infection?

          Does that warrant lockdown? Perhaps that should be something put to the community. Whereas for now, the lockdowns are just done to reduce that KPI, number of cases. At least as far as it looks like.

          • Not at all. We did not know the long term implications then and we do not now. No country had proven elimination via lockdown worked but now we have NZ, WA, SA, NT that have done it. Keep borders closed until an effective/mass distributed vaccine is found and there is a clearer picture of the longer term impacts? Why do you want us to be guinea pigs? Why waste the natural advantage of Aus being an island and let er rip like countries that cannot easily control their borders.
            But yes all ears on the long term health implications of which you side step.

          • I am arguing that as far as I am aware, the justification for the lockdown has been and still is to limit deaths as much as possible. You are arguing now that the lockdowns are that + to limit infection because there might be long-term impacts. Did I miss the change in the social contract?

            And you’re right I am natural skeptic about long-term impacts given what looks like all the signs and traits of a mass hysteria. I would argue that the risks of long-term impacts that we are not certain of, but may be able to equate with potential long-term impacts of having a bad cold or flu, are probably not so bad, as compared to the long-term impacts that we are certain of of continued hard lockdowns (mental health, suicide, reams and reams of debt etc etc). But I am in the minority. I guess you will give me some more information.

          • Plenty of states in the US that are happy to be guinea pigs just as you advocate. I’m happy to see how that goes from a safe distance.
            If you have such strong beliefs and certainty in you views there are still flights to the US where there are plenty more who share your views.

          • You’re right, everything I have read about this virus, I am not concerned about the health effects long term or short term. And I’m still unsure as to the change in the social contract here relating to the lockdowns from “saving lives” (original) to “reducing long-term health effects” (new, apparently, because I haven’t heard about this). Is it not legitimate to ask what the strategy is here? I guess it’s to close down to wait for a vaccine. Which may come. Or may not.

            Anyway I fail to see how my views extend to wanting to live in the US? No thanks. But that view is not related to the virus.

    • IFR is approx 0.6% based on antibody studies. Way higher than seasonal flu at 0.05 to 0.01%. Just take New York. 8mil population, 32k deaths, 25% infection rate based of antibodies. So herd immunity of 70% Australia will cost 100k lives.

      • you cannot calculate CFR based on number of covid deaths is NY State and population of NY City
        NYC had 22k deaths while NY State has 20m population

        so it’s 0.16% of NYS population and 0.26% of NY City population

        BTW. excess mortality there was not that much higher because many on death-bed who just got infected didn’t die from it.

    • few sero-prevalence studies done in April in USA (santa clara, miami-dade and LA counties) produced IFR of 0.17-0.20 but those numbers are likely to be overestimates because we later learned that detectable antibodies drop quickly so actual incidence rate was expected to be significantly higher in late April when studies were done (because many cases from March would not be detectable).
      Diamond Princess CFR when age adjusted for USA population produce 0.13% (this is so far probably the best sample study)
      many countries have CFR lower than 0.2% (Qatar 0.15%, Singapore 0.05%) so IFR must be lower CFR although those countries have younger populations affected. Some places like NYC or Bergamo had so many deaths implying IFR of 0.2%-0.3% even if all of population got infected (which is probably true because in Bergamo 60% of population tested positive on antibodies after end of April). These numbers are probably overstated because excess mortality in these places was not nearly as high as the reported number of covid deaths – simply everyone got infected including those who would have died during that period anyway.
      With more than 50% of dead in the age group over 80 something IFR is quite dependent on size of that population group. So the fact that Bergamo has over 10% of population over 80 makes it likely to have almost 50% higher IFR than Australia that has 4% over age of 80.
      I think so far the best estimate is somewhere 0.1-0.2% for Australia, higher in countries with larger elderly population (e.g. Italy, Spain) or high number of chronic patients/poor health care (e.g. USA).

  4. QuentinMEMBER

    Another day of the early ‘success’ stories of Japan, Vietnam and Australia madly going about trying to lockdown their way out of recurrances. Another quiet day in Sweden.

  5. Sounds good let’s go for herd immunity in Vic I reckon we are half way there already. Then open our international border only while WA/NZ etc inbreds stay locked in forever while we travel to Europe

  6. Jevons ghostMEMBER

    There is a large clinical trial being conducted in the USA right now, under the auspices of the FDA, using infusions of mesenchymal stem cells to treat severe respiratory complications of SARS-2-CoV infection (COVID 19 disease), which if successful may revolutionise the treatment of life-threatening SARS-2-CoV infection. The interim results of this trial should be available within the next 1-2 months and there are high hopes for its success. Mesenchymal stem cell infusions have already been shown to be both safe and effective in the treatment of a condition known as steroid resistant acute graft versus host disease, so if an effective and safe treatment for COVID 19 using what is essentially the same form of treatment becomes a reality governments need to ensure that it is delivered promptly to those who are unfortunate enough to be laid low by this pernicious virus. With the rest of us freed from the current practice of locking down whole communities in an attempt to protect the few most vulnerable while we wait for an effective vaccine that might not ever emerge.

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