Via the excellent George Tharneou at UBS:
Unemployment 7.4% (after 7.1%), highest since 1998; underutilisation 19.1%
Despite the rebound of jobs, the unemployment rate still lifted significantly, albeit ~as expected (UBS: 7.4%, mkt: 7.3%), to 7.4% in June, the highest since 1998, after 7.1% in May, and 5.1% in February. A more internationally comparable measure was 8.8% (from 5.4% in March); albeit still well below 11.1% in the US and 12.3% in Canada. The participation rate rebounded to 64.0%, after 62.7% was the lowest since 1999, albeit given it was 65.9% in March, it’s still likely to rise further ahead amid the reinstatement of the ‘work test’ for JobSeeker/unemployment payments. Elsewhere, the broadest measure of labour market slack is the underutilisation rate (also including underemployment), which retraced to 19.1% (after a record high of 20.2%), albeit remains very high given it’s still above the prior peak in 1992 of 18.2%.
