Specufestor stress by postcode

Great stuff from Martin North:

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Gonzo Woyzeck0

    Since months, clearance rates are down, given most RE agents live on commission, shouldn’t we see more defaults of larger RE agencies?

    • Now we’re getting started.. I am thinking give it a month and the -ves will be -0.double-digits daily.

      • as we get closer to the reduced RK and JS falls will accelerate. Nov and Dec will be interesting but by then Scumo will allow people to withdraw even more from their super.

    • not even the most optimistic speculator is trusting colelogic shit&y index

      if you look into sold even after significant renos they are selling under prices they sold in last 3 years

      corelogic hedonic index doesn’t adjust for renovations. According to their methodology a million dollar house sold for $100k more after $300k reno pushes the index up as much as it sold for 10% more without any renovation

      • Yes, the cost of renos are hiding a lot of losses which means comparisons between bought and sold prices from year to year are almost useless.

        The important thing is that the losses are real – even if you can’t see them.

      • Worse, Core Logic, subsidiary of US giant, also has a monopoly on the primary sales data precluding full analysis by others…

        The example cited follows how most Australians present their own nominal house prices i.e. ignore costs hence not presenting real (significantly lower) value.

        It’s more about PR shaping perceptions and attitudes.

    • I continue to have zero faith in this index but that doesn’t stop me loving the latest run of results! 😁

      • when even most “sophisticated” index in the world has to admit there are falls then you can imagine what speculators feel like when selling and knowing their $150k reno went down the gurgler.

  2. I dunno … he’s got the definite smell of someone who starts with a story then looks for data to fit it

  3. Wow – this is fascinating regarding Victoria with Fish Creek and the surrounding area the highest stress in the country.

    I have been speaking to people for months about WHY asking prices are so high and NOTHING sells.

    There it is – no one can afford to not sell for what they need – everyone is holding on and waiting for the expiry of the JobKeeper.

    • and than everyone will have to sell for 10% less than what would they get now

      who panics first panics best

      • if they sell now they will sell for 10% less as my guess is some mugs think 10% less is picking the bottom. Once JK and JS get their haircuts then highest bids will be 20-25% less.

  4. kannigetMEMBER

    I dont care where they live, I want to know where the properties they own are located.

  5. anyway mate wanted to bid $1.6m for a place opposite his house and his bank manager told him the place is not worth more than $1.3m. Mate got $1.7m pre-approved loan now and is looking for another place. I told him same about that place but he did not listen until the bank manager told him same.
    In the past banks did not care what crap people would have bought. Times are changing.

    • Are you saying bank manager gave him a valuation to a property that he neither owned nor had a contract of sale agreement on?

    • Right about now he’ll be doing the math on how much his place is really worth if the one opposite is 300k less than he thought.

  6. You should just leave it in the bank and watch it inflate away or gamble on stawks like good goyim.