Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is rapidly approaching, while Joe Biden is a moderate, he is proposing higher taxes and more regulation and President Trump is not having a good run. Trump’s re-election chances have fallen with a majority of surveyed Americans disapproving of his handling of the pandemic and recent civil unrest at a time when the US has plunged into its deepest recession since the 1930s. The historical record indicates incumbent presidents tend to lose when there is a recession in the two years before the election and unemployment has gone up.
Source: Strategas
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
