Property investors brace for 30% price falls

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, was interviewed by ABC’s Radio National where he warned that Melbourne and Sydney property are facing possible 30% price falls due to COVID-19:

“We are now recording falling dwelling prices as we speak… It’s Sydney and Melbourne that are the primary concerns. What’s triggering this housing downturn in Sydney and Melbourne, it’s not just the downturn in the economy but the specific closure of the international border, which has meant that the normal migration numbers that we have come through into Australia, we just aren’t getting at the moment. And those migrants generally come to Sydney and Melbourne first. And they take up the surplus stock that we build each year in the Sydney and Melbourne housing market. That’s not happening right now, so what we are seeing is surplus stock in the marketplace that is affecting the rental market. It’s affecting the sales market. And given the fact the border is going to be closed for some time, and then on top of that the forecast rise in unemployment, it’s a fair assumption that we are going to see further falls in dwelling prices going forward…

“The banks have been giving a moratorium on those borrowers that cannot meet repayments. The question of course, is can the banks keep that up? Or will they at some point be forced to call in loans? Our bet is that eventually they’ll have to start calling in loans or, on the other side of the ledger, they will have to significantly stop new lending. And potentially we are starting to see that already…

“Property investment has already been in decline… If you were a property investor at the moment, what are you actually looking at? You are looking at falling housing prices, falling rents. Not really a great time to go and buy a property if you are a property investor… I think property investors are going to stay on the sidelines for some time to come.

“Let’s go back to the last downturn in 2018. That was, of course, driven by restrictions in bank lending. Housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne peak-to-trough fell 15% in that particular event. Well, the event we are facing right now is a lot bigger than that. So we’re thinking that potentially we could see falls in Sydney and Melbourne of up to 30% peak-to-trough”.

As we keep saying, the Australian property market is facing gale force headwinds in the form of:

  • Mass unemployment and falling incomes;
  • Collapsing immigration;
  • Rising dwelling supply and rental vacancies;
  • Falling rents; and
  • Tightening bank lending.

The key risk is that Australia’s army of negatively geared landlords, seeing no capital growth on the horizon, cut their losses and sell en masse, thus causing a feedback loop of further price falls and forced sales.

I would not want like to be a highly geared investor in Sydney or Melbourne right now.

Unconventional Economist


  1. Hang on, we were all told that huge NOM made no difference to house prices on the way up? Now a huge reduction in NOM suddenly makes things go further down on the way down? Go figure, WTF?
    I’m so confused……? Surely Mr Property Spruiker didn’t lie to me for all those massive net NOM boom years since forever?
    Next I’ll discover that the great Aus miracle economy was one great big Ponzi Scheme, surely not!. Yeh/Nah couldn’t be, we’re exceptional, you know, 28 years uninterrupted economic growth… blah blah blah…!

    • If I were you I would not waste time waiting for the bottom. Make an offer, as much as you can afford. It won’t make a difference in a decade or two.

    • Forrest GumpMEMBER

      which has meant that the normal migration numbers that we have come through into Australia, we just aren’t getting at the moment. And those migrants generally come to Sydney and Melbourne first. And they take up the surplus stock that we build each year in the Sydney and Melbourne housing market.

      @ Sool.

      Yes we have been consistently told by these property bullshitters that the problem is and always has been lack of supply- NOT DEMAND!

      When there was an uproar over the lack of oversight from the Fed regarding illegal foreign investors, these same bullshitters claimed that the numbers of foreign investors and immigrants played no part in the property market.

      What I would enjoy seeing is MB throwing these comments back in their face and calling out their bullshit lies.

      Can MB Please step up and put the property bullshitters under the spot light….?

    • Last I read Perth rents have gone up. I am genuinely concerned that Perth may be a victim of its own success with Covid and wont experience the property downturn i would have hoped for. Everyone i know that had a job before covid in perth is now back at work. Restaurants, pubs are open, public transport is packed again. You see the occasional mask but thats it.

      • Don’t know what your reading, but I’d not pay much attention to it or any REIWA crap! My rent in mid 2012 (6148) was $390 and leased that place for close to 5 yrs and in that time the rent lifted to $450 and then fell to $410. Offered to re-lease for $360 (same price his other in the 4 unit joint was renting for) and he said no. So moved to 6107 and a much better place for $380 (down from $450) in early 2017 and no rent increases since.

        • Someone ElseMEMBER

          Similar for me in Perth. My pied de terre in 6014 was $360/week in 2012, down to $340 in 2014, and reduced every year since. I’m now paying $220/week – which includes gas and water.

          I could ask for less, but the lady I deal with is very good and prompt and personable with any problems, so I’ll let them have the small premium just so I can keep a good property manager.

      • What do you think an extra 20,000 dwellings will do to rents with zero migration ?

        What do you think would happen to the Perth economy if those dwellings were not built.

        There you go tiger.

        Now tell me – whats going to happen to Perth when China goes zero Iron Ore in 2021-2023 ?

        • Well hang on. There are plenty of stories about eastern states FIFO workers who work up north moving to Perth to avoid border closures. That would keep rents up.

          (And no China is not going ex Pilbara iron ore any time 2021-23, the alternatives are a lot further into the future than that).

          • Only if you read Macrobusiness and nothing else.

            Their port expansions for Valemax (No ports 5 years ago, 7 today and 5 more just announced) is all about transitioning to Africa, South America etc.

            Yes right now China gets a lot of Ore from Australia – but Ore is the MOST abundant mineral there is. Our competitors (outside Brasil, Russia, China) run token operations of which China has 27 suppliers outside of Australia.

            All of these could very easily be ramped up and displace vast amounts of Australian Iron Ore – when that is coupled with recycling enough Iron Ore could be displaced from Australia to absolutely crush our economy – it would only take 30% maybe 40% to see us in a catastrophic position financially.

            That would only take a year or two. From there Simandou would be fully online within 2-3 years with China throwing everything behind it.

            So yes – as I said – don’t rely on Macrobusiness for your world views – they will only say the same thing regarding China – apparently it was meant to collapse half a dozen times since 2008. Definitely, absolutely, without a doubt, tomorrow, no question.

          • Rasputin, you’re right about those ports and ships.

            Australia doesn’t keep up with technological advancements. It’s too arrogant. It will ultimately be it’s downfall. Unfortunately.

            Recycled steel in China doesn’t even get a mention. The country is run by an evil regime but it’s decades ahead of Australia in infrastructure and technology.

          • PaperRooDogMEMBER

            But aren’t most other deposits much lower quality? The proposed west African one is high quality supposedly but in a troubled area, inland and on the other side of Africa, so immediately the Chinese will have to pay more, though they will finance & build it so that is a plus, but not without negatives. But I can see China taking higher cost ore maybe subsidising industry more which will be a net negative & further squeeze their already low national efficiency. Question is will they completely cut us? If they do the LNP will be forced by their sponsors to build steel processing plants, I’d think, impose tarriffs, implement ADGSM etc

          • Rasputin – nope.

            Australia does around 660MT of iron ore to China each year. Simandou is five years off producing 100MT per year as an absolute best case – and it’s a very difficult part of the world to get things done. Yes China could probably get there in the end but at huge cost and even then it’s 100MT – ie they are still not going to displace that much Pilbara ore, and not that soon.

        • Mike Herman Trout

          I understand the motives of twiggy and Kerry early in the Covid saga much more in light of this…

      • Angry
        Interest rates are going to rise (I know not many agree)
        You’ll get your place much cheaper
        Not yet
        This time next year Perth will be another 10 to 20% cheaper

      • bcn, your theory of interest rates rising relies solely on the assumption that corporate debts will become too risky and will demand higher rates of I’m not mistaken?

        If so, then that’s an entirely valid theory – in a magical economics textbook that completely disregards all other things. In this instance, one thing being the fact that all debentures issues by whatever insolvent business will be bought, no questions asked, by the central banks at whatever low rate is provided.

        Mortgage rates are going down.

        I know you’ll understand and change your view one day and realise reality. I’m just trying to help you get there sooner.

        • Jumping jack flash

          “Mortgage rates are going down.”

          They would certainly love for that to happen, but unless they go negative I don’t think that can actually happen, and they’ve said they wont go negative.
          The equivalent and alternative option of a UBI is something else they could do, and they are kind of doing it right now, so in my opinion there is no real urgency for rates to fall at the moment.

          Understood that what they say now may not be what they say in 6 months’ time.

          I think they will do everything possible to prevent interest rates rising, but if the shtf in bcn’s scenario then they will most certainly rise.

        • In a strong current account surplus AUD world I would agree that it is a possibility. Without a surplus its a wet dream.

          But I am open to changing my mind I have no fixed view which is in my view the correct setting for now.

          • Yes, that’s my understanding too and also dependent on foreign interest rates – if these are kept to the floor then just enough rate margin to fund CAD if required.

          • @Ginger
            You make ‘funding the CAD’ so easypeasy.. Confidence in the USD is falling rapidly at the momment. If that pressure continues to build and either Commodity prices soften or China just goes point blank hostile, our CAD will rapidly get not easy to finance.
            The very idea that we can continue the CAD forever is lunatic imbecility on the part of the RBA, Treasury, Banks, University professors, Economic commentators and our poor ignorant pollies of all colours. – but that’s another topic.

        • I’m not convinced that they’re going up, but mortgage rates aren’t going down.

        • To keep lowering interest rates to encourage people to borrow that will never be able to repay their debt is PARADOXICAL, you need to be raising interest rates into a higher risk environment, the system eventually blows up like the GFC, misallocation of risk. We are going to have the DEFLATIONARY crash in global asset prices over the next 12 months, in particular AUSTRALIA we are going to have the crash in residential and commercial property (it’s already started) deleveraging of Australian household debt, cost of borrowing will rise into that risk, RBA can be zero or negative on the cash rate but the cost of borrowing is going to rise, we will see out of cycle interest rate increases by the banks as mortgage defaults continue to rise banks will need to increase their margin to survive. The crash in Australian house hold debt this time will be exacerbated into an environment of rising interest rates. After we see the crash in asset prices, “capital destruction” we are going to see inflationary pressures in essential goods and services rise. We are moving back into a period similar to 1980s stagflation higher interest rates and high inflation but first the DEFLATIONARY BUST. You can throw in a pandemic and the next Great Depression.

          • There is no deleveraging. Come on mate.

            It is the complete opposite. Everything indicates the opposite into the future!

            More and more mortgage holders are refinancing to IO or lower rates. Mortgage rates are going lower (completely with disregard to the RBA’s thumb twiddling). Asset prices are rising old chap.

            Lending standards are and will loosen.

            You’re a smart man. Why are you so blinded to reality?

          • Hi Les
            I can’t help but think the short term, medium term and long term are all being confused in the one argument.

    • Expect an influx of interstate and NZ FIFO workers being forced to relocate to Perth. Even in my fairly small work circle I know several that are preparing to make the move soon.

      • I’ve got a mate whose done that. For him It’s only until the interstate border restrictions ease. It’s the ones who FIFO out of Bali that’ll be around longer term.

      • Only a single example, but a guy I know here in Brissy has been ordered by his firm to relocate to Perth – his wife has said no way, so he’s currently wrestling with that dilemma. Job or Jobseeker.

        • Yeah, a few companies have said that they want everyone to be Perth-based, even after the restrictions end. That always used to be the case anyway – if you wanted a FIFO job you were expected to move to WA. That’s what me and most of my colleagues did. It’s only been in the last few years that we’ve seen more and more interstate/NZ guys being flown in.

        • In this economy, better off getting a smarter wife. That one sounds like a complete moron.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            It’s something I saw a lot. Partners happy to thrive on the monetary and lifestyle benefits from FIFO but not willing to take any of the hardship. Hardship for them is any small inconvenience.

            Leading cause of divorce I’d say.

          • MiBo and don’t forget the local Reusa visiting the wife while hubby is FIFOing at a mine site somewhere… hardship no, hard something else maybe!

        • Jeepers the calculus is easy. Yes you lose access to the Bundaberg distillery, the surf, Fraser etc but sunsets over the Indian ocean and wine country and Rotto sounds rad to me. And don’t they have rad golf courses? Of course, you have the massive problem of being located in close proximity to West Coast supporters, so there is that.

          • That’s true Burnsie. At least you wouldn’t have to put up with endless twittery of league. And as an MFC supporter who are perennially bad at least the Weagles are so good you’d have their sympathy

            But dear me that corporate god awful theme song

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      These bat sniffles have got me worried, especially living in the middle of Sydney I think it’s time to sell up and move the family to Perth. Before the price increases really start.

      What will a million bucks get me over there?

      • Two (two) renovated houses in a working class suburb.

        Or did you want beach and the upper crust? 😁

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        A lot, but not in Cottesloe area.
        Beachfront mansion Safety by area.
        316 Safety Bay Road, Safety Bay, WA 6169
        4 3 4 883 m²House
        Offers Invited

      • DouglasMEMBER

        To answer your question-bought a 3 BR 2 bath 3 dunnies with upstairs deck with view of Scarborough Beach in Scarborough on 285 metres of land with garage and 2 car parking for 535K which Chinese had bought for 694K four years earlier. So they lost 50K each year they owned it. Rent 450 per week and estimate price up 10% in 9 months from
        My mates tell me the previously depressed industrial areas in Perth now gangbusters with gold boom, iron ore boom and NG still there though depressed but Chevron and Woodside etc have to maintain their steel monsters. Also lithium coming with Min Res Albermarle deal and electric cars in France and Germany available for 10 euros a month and electric bikes and scooters flying! Also McGowan has done a good job compared to Andrews’ fiasco.

        • DouglasMEMBER

          PS also dollar now 0.71 compared to way overvalued 1.12 when Perth malaise started in 2013 and this really counts.

  2. Migrants only buy the surplus properties?
    Banks may have to stop lending?
    Thanks for the laugh Louis.

  3. All Mr Christopher is trying to do with this piece is frighten the political class into “Action!” – you know, those with property investment portfolios ie: All of them.

    • LOL
      our policians know better than him what’s going to happen but there is more interest among the ruling elite for prices to crash
      who cares if our political puppets lose money on their portfolio … they are not in charge anyway and will be compensated to a degree by keeping their pensions

  4. been to tropical QLD on holidays recently and if Syd/Mel are going to see 30% price falls, QLD regional areas dependent on tourism are going to see double that

    in the peak season half of shops are already vacant or closed for more than 4 days a week, hotels are half empty, houses that used to be booked years in advance are vacant …

    but the queen of nepotism Palaszczuk is “saving” lives

    • That is just a bullshit generalisation. What will hold up some regions, Dr, are the steady stream of people who will never return to a big city again. New home sales and land are moving here around Cairns. Apartments and cheaper housing are toast, but the cost of building will continue to provide a floor on prices. Oh, and nice places with fresh air and clean water, they’re getting rarer.

      Glad you are not in charge of saving lives, Queenslanders like me would be gone with the epitaph ‘oh he only had a year or two anyway’

      • I thought cost of building would provide a floor in Ireland back in the day…turns out it doesnt..houses were being sold and foreclosed by banks for less than build cost..e.g a house on land costing 190k to build plus land value selling for 140k..even at that price no takers…this is back in 2008…still struggle to get 220k for it 12 years later…price in 2007 …420k 😖

        • Ireland ain’t Cairns, MM. And this depression is different from the GFC. Lot of people rethinking their lives away from the city. Even if people sell at 20 to 30 per cent from peak, that sort of equity buys a lot of house up here

          • Was a similar area, sea ( that you can swim in) , mountains, 1 hr from Dublin…many wanted to rrthink their lives and move to the country there too..but couldnt because their city house price had crashed too 🤷‍♂️

      • That is just a bullshit generalisation

        A DrX speciality!

        In my very recent chats with several QLD realtors, I learned that prices are actually climbing in many trendy locations (e.g Maleny and other desirable locations) as people move to telecommuting and/or retire far away from the infected hordes.

        DrX is a good contrarian indicator; whatever he says, believe the opposite.

        • Jumping jack flash

          I must admit that properties around the corner from where I live in Brisbane, ie nowhere special, are climbing up into the 1m mark. I was astounded.

          For any changes to occur the debt needs to stop. I will see how that goes in about 6 months when I look for my own pile of debt to hand over to someone else.

        • Yep he’s a pretty reliable contrarian indicator.

          Maleny is nice, really nice, sorry to hear it’s about to be wrecked by southern states boomers.

        • Yeah I’m good contrarian indicator:
          Everything I predicted so far was right. When I said covid fatality is similar to bad flu, when I said on 20/03 epidemic will be over here in two three weeks when everyone was doomy, when I said in late April we’ll definately get second, third … wave ,when everyone was pessimistic, when I said lockdown will kill more people than covid, when I said Melbourne lockdowns will not work, when I said Sydney will be fine this time around, when I said virus is airborne masks don’t protect …

          Maybe I just missed the timing of Sweden’s epidemic based on some rports from there but I didn’t miss the outcome that majority will get infected and 0.01-0.02% die

          • kannigetMEMBER

            But its not just a bad flu. Deaths around the world due to the flu have declined dramatically due to the social distancing, lockdowns and handwashing but the rate of covid related deaths is around the same. Doesnt take much thought to realise not doing the prevention measure would have seen not only the flu deaths but a much much larger number of covid deaths.

            Hospitals have never been overloaded like this since the spanish flu and that is with the annual flu deaths.

            But you keep on sprouting your views on this, nothing anyone has said has helped you see any flaw in it so it must be true.

          • it’s not a bad flue, it’s new common cold but fatality is same as for bad flu

            more (maybe twice as many) people will die from covid19 than from a seasonal flu not because novel coronavirus is more deadly but because more people will be infected with it first time – it’s new virus so large number of people don’t have immunity. Once majority of people get infected and gain immunity this virus is going to be less deadly than a bad flu. Virus will stay around but mostly young kids will get infected and they will have no problem with it, other people will not get infected as frequently (mostly those with poor immunity) and will not be dying more than from other viruses that have been around for a while like RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) for example that annually kills tens of thousand people in USA and probably over 1000 in Australia but 95% of people never even heard of it.

            In sweden where epidemic is already ending due to her immunity (not because of measures because there are almost none) number of deaths is double that attributed to flu in 2018. excess mortality is likely to be much larger because not all covid19 deaths have been caused by covid19.

      • Id didn’t say prices are falling. Didn’t even bother to check.
        What I’m saying is that poverty is going to destroy these places. So housing will just follow

        Many people are rethinking living in big cities but with no jobs in regions moving and living of welfare appears to be the only option for most – hardly positive outlook for property prices

        Btw. I went to port douglas and place looked empty relative to two years ago. I enjoyed <100 people on four mile beach but …

      • You are probably right, C.J. Life looks relatively normal up here compared to Melbourne. How long before people give up waiting for normal to return and just move somewhere to get it. Wait until Sydney becomes Melbourne 2.0

        • Lived in both, Adam. Could drive from Watsonia to Moorabin to see gf in 40 minutes on Friday arvo (40 years or so ago). Canberra to Sydney was a journey, not a destination… Nah, big demand now for cities like Cairns, with or without the tourists, students and backpackers. Too many people everywhere you go

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Saving lives? What a few sick old people? LOLOLOL. You mean destroying lives. Untold numbers.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    This bloke is just a sick bear like the rest of them. He’ll go the shamed way of Steve Keen and Peter North before him. LOLOLOL

  6. arthritic knee

    Watching some investors getting nervous.
    This one was listed a week or so ago on the Sunny Coast @ $680,000 which is under cutting all similar in the area.

    Now $630,000 already. I’m guessing a multi property investor needing to get one sold ASAP. Possibly got the tap on the shoulder from the bank and thinks this will be easier to flog off than a metro property.

  7. Louis does go on to say in that interview that the federal government may yet throw the kitchen sink at asset prices. The 30% figure is what could happen if they don’t do that.

    What will the government do? When will they do it? Will it be effective?

    • It’ll be effective until it ain’t. Can’t push on a string forever…

      Anyway, there’s plenty of other, more exciting bubbles being back stopped by govts/central banks that can be speculated on at the moment. If you’re gonna throw money at something, may as well have a chance of it being a 5 or 10 bagger!

      • Whatcha thinking in terms of other alternative bubbles that might be good for a 5+bagger?

  8. New Indian hellbourne migrants buying in new estates and renting to newer indian migraines..

    New chinee escaped RMBs buying new Harry Highri box and leaving emptee or rent to group of many new chinee student.

      • Peach, I won’t be crowing later (if a fall even happens). The anticipation is much more satisfying than the actual fall.

        • I hope so for your sake, because anticipation is all youse’ve ever had.

          Still, I reckon the crowing is the best part, so don’t rule it out from the get-go.

      • Agreed Peach. The ball are blue on this housing crash guff. No on likes boasty types though.

        • Heya Northy- I think I might christen the permanently postponed perma-bears the BBBs – Blue Ball Brigade.

          Thanks for the inspiration!

  9. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Like I said when he said these statements on the ABC over the weekend, if he’s saying 30%, you should probably see that as best case and 40% more likely. It’s bad this time, and people in the brace position rocking back and forth repeating to themselves “the government will fix it, the government will fix it are completely living in the past.”

    There is not enough ammo left! Nowhere to go on rates, no immigrants, banks tightening with unemployment headed for the teens and no FOMO.
    NSW is aiming to throw in no stamp duty on places below 800k, Recessionberg wants people to be having extra babies because there are no immigrants – jesus they aren’t even TRYING to hide the utter desperation now.

    • * Mortgage rates can go well lower.
      * Immigration will re-commence significantly sooner than you expect. There will be airport tests and a government app for self quarantine.
      * People in useless jobs or unemployed will be paid 35k pa to sit on the couch.
      * Mortgage repayments will be delayed as long as is required.
      * Lenders and banks virtually don’t need capital requirements and will relax lending.
      *The Australian government is overseeing the printing
      of so much cash that it’s impossible for a normal human being to relatively quantify in their mind.
      * There’s pent up sh..t.

      Sh..t for example:
      Immigration – pent up and bursting to get in, boomer cash – pent up (can’t be spent on overseas holidays, chasing yield, chasing safe havens, buying homes for kids), pent up bodies from HK that control loads of wealth and need to invest it somewhere.

      And I haven’t even mentioned SFM and Frydenburg packages soon to be announced.

      • Yawn.
        In the meantime, Melbourne’s been falling for more than three months after failing to appreciate more than 1% since the previous peak, isn’t looking like getting out of lockdown very soon and every time bad case numbers are report d in Victoria the other states tighten their borders against anyone currently not in Australia. Not going to be fixed soon.

          • I’m sure you’ll be able to cherry pick suburbs with no falls and even gains well into this crash, just as you can in any other, and just as even in boom times some suburbs experience year-on-year gains that are sideways or even downwards. Especially if your yardstick is what people want to be paid for their property not what they actually get paid.

          • Mike Herman Trout

            I’m watching there too swampy… although rents are definitely falling through that area… I would say between 10 and 15% so far…

          • All overrated suburbs. Scrappy paperbark and bottle brush trees along the nature strips. Some nice houses, but a lot of Georgian palazzo ugly houses. Scrappy sandy yards. Bay views – mostly choppy and or overcast weather / bleak water. Lots of yummy mummies judging each other, whilst they steer their SUV/4WD prams and wear their leggings and windbreakers (all looking the same, only difference is how much botox they go for).

          • kannigetMEMBER

            Isnt it actual sales prices that show a fall not asking prices? In any normal market asking price would be above the actual sale price as no idiot would offer more than the asking price.

            Even in renting, Everytime I have moved in Canberra I have got a place for lower than the asking rent. But price indicies use asking prices not actual prices. Current place was on the rental market for $760, Sat on the market for ages, offered $680 they waited another 4 weeks and then offered me $740, I countered with $700. They took it.

        • Out of all the scum that inhabits and crawls the earth, the Aussie real estate agent without doubt, takes the status of the lowest of all scum.

          There’s a difference between joining the enemy vs seeing the reality of the game.

          • I’m sending a few of these articles sans comments to the agent that sold our place as he is now trying to find a place including I think a place we’ll look at next week

            His vendor is 10% too high at least but they disavow any facts pointing to a potential calamity or even acknowledge any downside risk

            But then the local NAB is telling me I can borrow 560 for an 800k purchase and I pointedly asked their forward view – “no issues”

            Luckily a valuer acquaintance told me valuer view is the Shizzle is going to hit the fan

            Downside 20%+ northern rivers

      • ‘Pent up’ – elderly Indians that haven’t been able to get in during border lockdowns. They are just waiting to ‘visit’ Oz and never return – they have fake or ‘borrowed’ Medicare cards just waiting to be used.

    • Every time that there is a small hiccup of the awesome house boom, there are always a couple of guys like Goldie that appear – really excited… elated, almost manic. Red faced, grinning uncontrollably as they masturbate in public, jerking it this way, then that. Exclaiming loudly and triumphantly. Lots of examples in the archives here.

      Then the hiccup gets resolved and them guys slink away into obscurity. Often never to be seen again. Now masturbating privately, quietly and in a mournful (rather than elated) mood.

      • So true

        I’ve been here 7 or 8 years and I remember them coming and going

        Lord Dudley was the most animated

        • fitzroyMEMBER

          So the market tells us, or is it the same; fiat currencies turn to ashes with the RBA striving for 2% debasement.

      • You’re right about the masturbatory aspect. I do note that S Keen has quietened his delusional masturbatory outbursts since meeting his Thai partner and moving to Thailand.

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          You’ll never need to do it yourself ever again if you’ve got yourself a Thai lady.

          • hmmm not sure about that. Once they have their visa and qualify for de facto status it’s bye bye darliinnng.

            Or if you’ve decided to settled over there prepare for a nice flight off a balcony or a long leisurely swim in the ocean –

            Might be cheaper and safer to stick to the rub n tugs 😂

      • Ulrike Meinhof

        Totally agree, its so tiring just listening to them jerk off, so much effort exerted with such a little thing, no wonder they get so red faced and rant like lunatics.
        For me House Prices are the modern Aussie religion, as is the case with most religions it is all faith based, cold hard rational human logic plays no role in this religion and is completely meaningless to those with faith. Compare it with most other major religions or religious belief systems and you’ll see what I mean.
        But the wankers can’t see this truth so they run around in public ranting just like the pathetic tossers that they are.
        One day prices will fall but it will be for the same reason that churches empty, the faithful have gone elsewhere.

        • Nailed it on the “rational human being”. A wanker will cry “but, the fundamentals!”. There are no fundamentals. There’s emotions and irrational human beings. About half the population reached maximum intelligence at age 12.

          There’s no rational markets. There’s just free lunches.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        So just so I’m clear about your position……
        “no matter what, property will be sweet”. Wow, how could I argue?

        So we are clear, I’ve made my money in property and am currently renting as of mid last year. By choice. So yeah this time I have declared different. You most likely be sitting there wondering what happend after 20% declines. If I’m wrong, I’ll survive, if you are wrong, well… know what happens.

        • Nah. I provide balance.

          At the least by the application of the Cromwell rule. But often in a much more detailed and elaborate manner.

          • This site is worse than ZH IMO for snidey little comments like from Kodick
            If its a microcosm of australia then we deserve all thats coming to us

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Even if it does collapse, for house prices to not rebound there would have to be a 180 degree turn from Houses & Holes to value adding manufacturing.
        The latter would take a huge amount of political will along with some kind of existential threat to motivate change. The former is far easier, just blow another bubble.

        • Ulrike Meinhof

          Not to disagree, but Political will is the least of our problems.
          For Australia to become a value added manufacture would take a fundamental change in our education system that was sustained for over a decade. But before you cheer on such a change, ask yourself exactly what job these alternately educated individuals (some might say better educated), will have for the decade that it takes Australia to achieve a sort of minimum level of skill in Value added manufacture.
          Now ask yourself how a bankrupt post Houses and Holes economy, will sustain this investment for as long as is required to achieve some sort of self sufficiency in Value added manufacturing.
          Global competitors are not going to let Australia simply walk in and take market share just because Aussie think that they deserve their “fair” share. The real world’s just not like that.
          As I see it it will take 10 years to develop the underlying product expertise to become a value added manufacturer. It will take an additional decade for us to cement ourselves in place as a top three global supplier in those product spaces where we succeed in gains the requisite skills, depth of knowledge and educational pipeline to sustain us.
          But what has to happen before most Australians agree to and actively support this pathway?
          See what I mean the wankers will win long before this dream becomes reality. Disillusioned manufacturing rationalists will join forces with religious housing wankers if only to be on the winning side for a year or two.

          • Required change requires long-term vision and committment.

            The good thing about GDP and house-prices is you can get good (and visible) wins in the short-term. Any losses are down the line and someone else’s problem.

            We don’t reward (and therefore get) those who make tough decisions and have a long-term view. Parties and voters chop and change. Everyone wants to quick wins and doesn’t worry about the long-term. I don’t even think Boomers have much consideration for their grandchildren’s predicament (or even their children really).

            Sadly there isn’t even a vision or declaration of what we want Australia, a country (a society as well as economy), should be.

            No vision like Federation – fair pay, fair working conditions, democratic with good justice systems, and not too wide a gap between rich and poor (unlike the US), and no classism (unlike the Britain). To suggest a vision or ‘mission statement’ for Australia is deemed ‘populist’ (where somewhere along the line, populist, has become a dirty word, rather then actually mean something wanted by most people, or the average person).

        • JojoyubbyMEMBER

          What about mass desertion of the country? with all the new mine in Africa coming online in the next few years and the reduction of the dependency on Coal fire power generation. what is left for us to sell in exchange for all the rubbish that we are importing? After this pandemic, NZ trumped us on the safety preference for migrant. With the economy crippled by COVID, where are the job for any new migrants coming from?

  10. These are property speculators not investors. Investments usually have a defined rate of return, where most house speculations are making a loss and were brought in the hope that capital gains would outweigh the losses.

  11. “Let’s go back to the last downturn in 2018. That was, of course, driven by restrictions in bank lending. Housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne peak-to-trough fell 15% in that particular event. Well, the event we are facing right now is a lot bigger than that. So we’re thinking that potentially we could see falls in Sydney and Melbourne of up to 30% peak-to-trough”.

    We’re roughly 110 days into Melbourne’s covid crash, and we’ve seen falls of 3.6% from peak so far.
    For comparison, 110 days after the peak in Melbourne seen December 2017, it was down 0.7%

  12. All I know id what I see around me and what I see are lots of For Lease and For Sale signs. The most I have ever seen.
    That’s got to put pressure on prices.
    We are already 5% down from peak in Sydney so he is really talking about 25% drop from here.
    I still have a more balanced view on it and think 15% drop from here is more likely.

    • Western Sydney, I’m guessing?

      Temporary untill the floodgates from the Asian, Islamic and subcontinental lands open again.

      • Eastern suburbs. Back packers gone home and stretched families moving out.
        My short street has about 10 apartments for lease. Currently empty.
        There was 5 apartments for sale last month at the same time. 2 sold, 3 pulled out.

        • Still a loooong way to go. I live in Paddo, bought in 2011 and I cannot believe the prices some of these terraces are selling for now – I thought I overpaid but these things are at least 2x now.

          • Doubles every 7-10 years, innit?

            Interestingly mortgage rates have gone from 7% to 3% in that time. What a coincidence.

            Hooray for lowering teh rates. Hooray for opening the gates. Hooray for MPLOL!!

    • DPM – Like you I would prefer to use my own eyes to make an informed assessment of what the market is doing. Again like you I am seeing more “for lease” signs (residential & commercial) and a lot more housing stock starting to come on the market (upper north shore Syd). While I dont see anyone panic selling, if stock builds and sits around while prices go down, then that’s going to spell trouble. Going to be an interesting next 6 months.

      • I am watching the Upper North Shore of Sydney too and there are more “nicer” houses coming on now. Seeing a few discounts now which wouldn’t have happened earlier on in the year