From cartel champion, The Australian:
A gas deal between US energy major ConocoPhillips and junior explorer 3D Oil in Victoria’s offshore Otway Basin could help ease a forecast supply crunch set to hit the east coast by 2024.
After selling an 80 per cent stake in the T49P permit in the Otway Basin to Conoco, 3D Oil expects the joint venture will push ahead with a seismic survey followed by a potential exploration well in 2022.
…“We can see that Exxon‘s production is falling from a cliff and they’re in limbo because of the Bass Strait sale and then Beach have deferred their exploration and development drilling also,” 3D executive chairman Noel Newell told The Australian.
“The cheapest gas in the Melbourne market is coming from the Gippsland and Otway Basins. It’s hard to imagine how a LNG terminal can be competitive against gas that‘s local in my opinion.”
The shortage is 100% real. Via the AEMO, here’s where we are today:
And here is where we’re going fast as Bass Straight gas runs out:
Can Otway produce the 1000Tj per day to fill the gap? No. Even if it is substantial it will only displace northern gas into higher LNG export volumes. Conoco-Phillips is partner in QLD’s APLNG.
So will it lower prices? No. Only domestic reservation will do that.
But let’s roll the dice on a tiny prospector operating in a diminishing reserve instead.
