Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

A very rough finish to the week here in Asia with sharp falls on most share markets, replicating the falls in Europe but not Wall Street overnight. Gold is having another go at its previous record high, now making a triple top on the four hourly chart to currently be at the $1974USD per ounce level with silver also re-engaging above the $24USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is the standout, lifting almost 0.7% going into the close to be at to 3310 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is slipping to be down 0.1% to 24677 points. Japanese stocks however had a shocker, with the Nikkei 225 falling almost 3% to 21710 points to a two month high. The USDJPY pair is also falling in kind, now matching its March weekly low (solid black horizontal line below) after only a very minor deceleration overnight:

The ASX200 also fell over 2% to close the week out below the 6000 point level, closing at 5927 points as bank and other financial stocks got whalloped. The Australian dollar however has continued its own little climb, now above the 72 handle after a strong session overnight as USD continues to wane:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are somewhat soft, only up a few points with the latter just holding on to last night’s gains, with resistance at 3270 points the key level to beat tonight:

Have a good weekend and stay safe – wear a mask and be good to each other.

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Comments

      • today I was tempted to buy and hold few gold stocks. I traded most of the morning and kept thinking gold is going to break over $2k and will keep on going..

          • It should, but if you have a bit of “f U” money to flick at Gold it could be worth riding the bubble for a bit and calling a point where you cash out to take a profit.

            I’m still long NASDAQ and prices didn’t really fall.. but being invested in Gold + BTC to me feels like a good hedge right now

          • I sold just under $2k per ounce, and just bought back in a bit…like Chris and Dave have been saying, if it cracks $2k then it’s all in and up like a rocket ..I’ve put in my hedge for tonight and Monday.

          • I really have nowhere else to put the money right now. I want to build my garage but not ready yet and I am not sure $AUD is where I want to hold the money.

      • same longer term but I did expect $100-$200 pull back and I thought that would have been the moment to jump back is ~$150 fall will trigger panic and miners will fall as if Au fell $500. Always happens.
        I am monitoring and may end up buying the next small dip – if there is any as it starts to fell Au will just keep gong from here. CBs can’t stop printing now so they are locked in position until all fiats burn.

        • Yep. Fiat is circling drain – and while I have a heap of gold exposure in my Super which I could sit on and ignore till retirement it’s just too tempting to trade it all the way up. Even if that could end in tears.

          Need some decent dips to trade it successfully

  1. Sadly so much of the data is subject to political [cough … ideologically driven economic] machinations due to latent McNamara, early Nash, Von Newman et al like GT driven methodology. Compounded by both a lack of government capacity [see next] and neoliberal market based incentives which both reduced data collection ability, quality of it, and a process to evaluate it, and lastly a means to use the aforementioned to arrive a informed policy decision and expedite it without any ideological “hang ups” – because of all the previous ideological propaganda is more important.

    All whilst understanding its an evolving reality which will necessitate changes and new information becomes apparent.

    Know wonder the fail rate of schools like rangers etc is so high … when some minds can’t deal with the dynamics E.g. submit a patrol plan based on GDP and then life happens ….

  2. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    #4.
    Codpiece should definately be a theme for this weekend.
    Daniel Andrews was wearing the Black Russian in April but now has the Asian thumbtack in July.

  3. FMD the ASX copped a pizzling today. I know Chris said it was financials dying in the ar$e, but what the hell caused it, remembering that both good and bad news causes stonks to go up.

    • The FallMEMBER

      Was fairly predictable. In Taiwan? anyone going into isolation has to install a smartphone app. It reports their location with GPS continuously. Leave home? Police come. At random intervals the app will request a selfie. Don’t provide within 10 minutes? Popo. Leave home without your phone? They can tell because the motion sensor in your phone will detect a lack of movement. If they think you’re in the community it’s like getting a 5-star alert in Grand Theft Auto. Trust should not be part of a public health issue like this.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Trust should not be part of a public health issue like this.

        Trust works both ways. Who has access to all that data being collected ? Does it get deleted after it’s not longer required ?

        GPS tagging people is potentially a small snowball at the top of a big slope. Legislation around it would need to be very carefully written.

    • One person I know of who did self quarantine in Darwin was visited 6 times in two weeks. My workmate’s daughter almost received a fine because she was sleeping through the door knocking. She ended up being checked on 5 times in a fortnight. Both had to undertake two tests.

    • Appealing to people’s honesty isfailing. They should get those Army types to rig up claymores around houses and shape charged door and window trips for units.

    • You will know when people are doing the right thing because numbers will be falling, but the numbers just proves people are not doing the right thing. It’s been obvious for weeks

      • Was talking to a friend in Melbourne today and that sentiment many share; just do the fvcking right thing you morons and we can all go back to some sort of normality.

      • Not sure it proves anything apart from people being people. Go to any supermarket, department store, Bunnings or school. Lots of close contact. It’s a virus. It spreads. Not sure why people think we can beat it. Either weld people into houses or don’t bother.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      I can somewhat understand someone breaking quarantine while waiting for result, but to do if after you have tested positive is mind boggling. Are the all psychopaths? Or they think it is just a flu?

      • Just selfish thoughtless self centered chvnts who don’t give a fkck. I see them all the time in other contexts eg people who park over two parking spaces, people who leave their dog’s sh!t on the footpath, you might think they’d act different when they have a deadly disease but nope.

        • Agree, selfish people everywhere. I think you can tell if someone is good and honest by how they act when they think nobody is watching. It does seem that most people are self centered and greedy these days.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Penske File will know – I presume they are one of these 2nd tier lenders that lends to all the ‘difficult’ borrowers.

      And fund themselves in the ABS market (?) If not, they’re dead.

        • They would have to charge a fortune because the risks (and therefore write-offs) would be huge. A lot of these small businesses operate on the razor’s edge as it is. I can see a heap of them taking out these loans and then defaulting, declaring bankruptcy etc.

          Why not? Just buy a Landcruiser and camper trailer and head off into the Strayan sunset with the missus (or mistress) leaving your debts and troubles behind you.

  4. I keep looking at today’s ASX chart and feeling the urge to fap. But I am in a pub with many people. What should I do? Stealth fap in place or go home?

  5. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Looks like everyone’s moving to Adelaide. The CoreLOLogics show them up for the quarter. I’m interested in tomorrow’s numbers, as we (Brisbane) had a big down day today. Over the last few weeks Saturday’s invariably up.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Victorians certainly are, or at least were, prior to the tighter restrictions that kicked in on midnight Wednesday. Bit of a laugh really after Dan Andrews smug face asking why anyone would want to come to South Australia. Perhaps he should ask the (many) thousands of his fellow proud Victorians desperate to get out of the place.

  6. SweeperMEMBER

    Pinning this all on Andrews seems unfair when the biggest single driver of cases across the world and in Melbourne seems to be the qty of libertarians per head of population.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        He just needs to enforce stage 3. I don’t see why people going to work when they already tested positive aren’t carted off to Siberia, or people who refuse to get tested, or people who drive through border checkpoints to demonstrate their sub 80 IQ to facebook, or people acting out their non existent “civil liberties” and challenging police with their legal wisdom taken from an episode of law and order.
        The one thing they’ve got in common is they are all libertarians. When they’ve been dead wrong about everything.
        This whole period should be a huge wake up call for them.
        Who knew the state could just shut down businesses, take over management from private operators. Who knew you can’t uber eats your own ventilator at a moments notice?
        Who knew the “market” only ever existed with the permission of the state?
        Not libertarians. Yet it was always the case. And now it’s obvious.
        So rather than marking their idiotic beliefs to market, they decide to apply them to a public health crisis.
        The irony is the more libertarians a society has then less free it can be, because the more dysfunctional it becomes and the more you need a stronger state to hold things together. Would they ever understand that? No.

        • When the state can’t manage quarantine or the docking of cruise ships or close borders or cancel the F1 at an appropriate time but then has the gall to lecture individuals about their behaviour and complacency maybe people don’t really pay too much attention.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            If “individuals” didn’t think it was ok to leave quarantine in the first place or wander of an infected cruise ship with symptoms and fly to Tasmania, you wouldn’t need the State to manage it in the first place.

        • Sweeper, you are talking about Nuttertarians. A few decades ago a Libertarian was a completely different beast. Then a Libertarian was a “live and let live” person who tended to favour a smaller government and fewer laws. Those Libertarians wanted people to grow up to make correct decisions and to be trusted to do the right thing without being told and forced by government.

          Now the libertarian name has been hijacked by Nuttertarians. Nuttertarians worship a god called “the free market” which springs up magically and naturally in the absence of government.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Mask wearing is pretty much 100% in my neighborhood, but color me shocked when I drove through Preston this afternoon, and saw a high proportion of non-mask wearers.

      Little wonder it went nuts in that high school. All the social cohesion of Yugoslavia. 🙄

      • You only have social cohesion if you have a society. If you have a vast pile of random invaders from all over the place living in the same location you don’t have a society you have a sh1thole where it’s every invader for himself. Eventually you will have conflict as Sikh fights Lebanese fights Sudanese fight Afghani fights Chinese fights Iranian Fights Iraqi fights YouKnowHoo fights Somali….etc…
        Or, more succinctly, diversity + proximity = war.

  7. Masks and opinions about Trump are the easiest ways to see who is capable of independent thought and who is not.

    And before you jump to a conclusion about which side I am referring.. you might consider which side of those issues are backed by 24/7 propaganda from the main outlets.

    *
    A good interview question I heard recently (cannot remember which company) was:

    “tell me one unpopular opinion you have, and the reason you hold it”

    ..to which the applicant won’t be let off until they’ve come up with a genuine answer (not a pretend “I think you want to hear this” answer) and defended why they are right and the mainstream opinion is wrong.

    • Yeah, I hear it Brother.

      Bonnie’s young voice too….one of all time faves. Such a soulful song. So interesting to hear her sing it over the years.

      My current player is an Astoria New Yorker….a TV yellow Korean copy of a Les Paul Junior with a single P90. Dunno what the wood is, but it weighs a ton and sounds great. There’s a few reviews and tone samples on YT.

    • How fvcking cool is that! Just grow your limbs back. “It’s just a flesh wound. Wait out, let me grow that back”. Huntsmans were nature’s bug catchers but didn’t they scare the absolute fvck outta ya when you opened a cupboard or moved something in the shed.

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        “but didn’t they scare the absolute fvck outta ya when you opened a cupboard or moved something in the shed”.

        Tame.

        You haven’t lived until one’s run over your face in the middle of the night. & it didn’t happen to a friend of a friend of mine. It happened to me.

        • Concur, I used to live next to some marsh where the things were prolific, had a few occasions were the went over my face at night looking for dinner. They say they eat the more harmfull spiders so I just let em be, as they are very common in se qld in general.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        This one always makes me laugh:

        Meet this little guy. He’s a huntsman spider. and he’s a little ball at happiness. He can‘t make webs. so you never need to worry about walking lnto one.

        And you never need to worry about where he is because,usually, he’s In plain sight. In your house. A lot of people were scared ot the Irukandjl because it was so small. Don’t worry about that with this guy. An average-slzod adult is about as blg as your hand. All good.

        He frightens easily, tho poor thing. So it he sees you coming at him, he’ll run around all batshit insane. But ho doesn’t really run like a normal spider. Ho’s better than that. Instead. think majestic galloping. Chilled as, right?

        He’s also good at killing smaller spiders and other pests. lo do so, he chase: them down like a mothertucklng elght-legged cheetah. Nothing escapes. Hell yeah. He’s nature’s bug-spray. Handy. right?

        But he’s not venomous to humans. Ho doesn’t want to bite you. He just wants to be your best friend. Forever.

  8. UNITED STATES …

    A Quarter Of All Household Income In The US Now Comes From The Government … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quarter-all-household-income-us-now-comes-government

    Following today’s release of the latest Personal Income and Spending data, Wall Street was predictably focused on the changes in these two key series, which showed a modest slowdown in personal spending (to be expected one month after the savings rate in the US hit a record), coupled with a modest decline in personal income (as government benefits and stimulus checks slowed substantially).

    But while the change in the headline data was indeed notable, what was far more remarkable was less followed data showing just how reliant on the US government the population has become. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Hanging out on Afternoon Links and not Weekend Reading Reusa? Isn’t that a bit like doing a KFC run at the local food court before the relations party has cleaned out the key bowl? 😁

      Anyway… must be off now. I unexpectedly have a whole weekend to fill with matters non: economic or divisional. 👋

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’ve been to untold relations parties and not once has anyone come along and not partaken in the events. And even if one accidentally ends up at a homo party one always partakes.

  9. UNITED STATES …

    AMERICA’S LONG SUFFERING RAIL COMMUTERS … WENDELL COX … NEW GEOGRAPHY

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/006733-americas-long-suffering-rail-commuters

    The long, streaking commuter trains (suburban rail) carrying workers mostly into and out of downtown every day may give the impression of “rapid transit.” However, regardless of the top speeds they reach, the average suburban rail rider spends far more time traveling to work than those using other modesof getting to work (Figure 1). They spend far longer than the majority of commuters, who drive alone. Even in the New York combined statistical area (CSA), with the largest suburban rail network a majority drive to work. Outside New York, nearly 2/3rds or more drive alone than use transit in the six CSAs with the next largest networks (Figure 2).
    .
    .
    … In case you missed this important recent article …

    PERSPECTIVE: U. S. COVID-19 DEATHS AND URBAN POPULATION DENSITY … WENDELL COX … NEW GEOGRAPHY

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/006707-perspective-u-s-covid-19-deaths-and-urban-population-density

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