Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker

The mood is mixed again here in Asia despite a small surge overnight on Wall Street as the Federal Reserve re-engaged its dovish narrative. Gold has been unable to crack its overnight high, slipping to the $1958USD per ounce level with silver looking even weaker below $24USD per ounce:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is struggling to gain traction, but still positive by being up 0.2% or so going into the close at 3303 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is doing a lot better, up 0.75% to 25065 points. Japanese stocks continue to slip, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2% to 22350 points. The USDJPY pair is finally finding some love, bouncing off the 105 handle after decelerating its falls recently:

The ASX200 is the best market in the region, up over 0.6% and firmly bouncing off the 6000 point level to finish 0.6% higher at 6045 points, absorbing the downtrend in dwelling approvals. The Australian dollar however has not done so with the Pacific Peso breaking the uptrend from its Monday morning bounce, falling below the low moving average on the four hourly chart:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are somewhat soft, only up a few points with the latter holding on to last night’s gains, bouncing off  key support at the 3200 point level:

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Warning: no one with a short fuse should watch. ABC Big Australia propaganda at its most obsequious and nauseating.

      Scummo’s bound to restore ABC funding now.

      • Pickering is a reasonably amusing guy but he is a dyed-in-the-wool progressive. Literally his views are identical to any other progressive I’ve ever heard open their mouths – not a single original thought between them. It’s like a cult

    • You know the parable involving the Frog and the Scorpion.

      Why would you expect a leftist to speak truth?

      Cowardice, and lying to hide said cowardice, is the fundamental reality of any leftist. It is in their nature.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Are there such things as Left and Right anymore? There just looks to be dispirit tribes vying for attention.

        • Why would that matter?

          If that made a difference, I’d be a cuckservative – ‘muh lefties are the real racialists!’, probably hoping for an invite to Q&A.

        • I used to think so. Now, not so sure.

          One of the things that has really changed over the years is how much I value courage. It is what it is I guess.

    • Well you have to keep up the rhetoric that anything less than open teh gates is racist or bad for you pocket, especially being that lower teh rates is gone for now!

    • This covid19 like training for what is coming as ice melts virus will pop up year after year new normal now

    • I love The Weekly, and also like most of Lukenomics, but that immigration assessment was poor – Leith’s assessments are far better and more balanced.

      • Some Pickering I don’t mind, but I can take or leave him – I’m not a regular. The Lukenomics piece replete with righteous machinegunning style grates me regardless of subject, muzzling or ridiculing right of reply isn’t the way to win people over, just adds to the overbearing & unbalanced superiority complex out there.

    • Thanks for putting that up. I need an MB rebuttal to point my friend to and to use to write to my MP and to look lodge a complaint with the ABC. Just this morning on the radio it was announced that young people have exactly the same nominal earnings as 20 years ago representing a huge decline in living standards. All driven by massive increase in supply of back packers, foreign students and graduates with work rights and other work visas. What Charlie Pickering presented was unforgivable.

    • Crushed? Year to date up near 44%. Maybe if you are a day trader. It was $18 less than a week ago now over $23. Invest in PMs never trade them. My Perth mint account has never looked fatter….good luck.

      • Aussies Not Doing The Right Thing

        I piled into silver late March won’t look to get out until $16-18.

    • Hyperbole, much? Those chumps who piled into silver at $49 a few years back got crushed.

  1. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    1st to say 1st, but I’m not actually 1st.
    More bad news, more printing, more stockmarket joy!
    Was this missed today?
    Gov just did it’s 3rd biggest bond sale ever to anyone who would buy.
    $15B of 31 year bonds @ 1.94%- that means foreign and Aussie investors (inc. super funds) were prepared to take less than standard rate of inflation until 2051 to get regular gov guarenteed interest cheques………Whoa
    This would imply these institional investors think interest rates are low basically forever?
    Good news but not really at all. How can this go wrong?

    • so they still want to fund their debt.. why won’t they just create it from thin air like commercial banks?

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      many pension funds etc are legally bound to only have AAA rated assets and they must be diversified across different classes, so in many cases they are selling into a captive market as they (the funds) MUST buy the bonds, irrespective on the rate being offered.

      • This is definitely true — although they’re not necessarily obliged to buy 31yr paper with a coupon that low. Lots of duration (risk) there so I doubt many of them will be long term holders. Insurance companies, perhaps.

        The trouble arises when inflation shows up – then these bonds will sh*t the bed.

    • Ultra low interest rates for fkcken ages?

      I don’t know if it will be disastrous or not but I do reckon it’s happening.

      • It was 1 reason I purchased a house. As much as I want rates to go up. I just don’t see it happening anytime soon.

        • Yes. Central to my decision too. And also a reason I’m no longer very worried about (almost certainly) getting a big debt.

          • I will say, I’m so glad I have minimal debt though! Makes being unemployed much less stressful.

          • Guys the issue with zero rates is not that mortgages are cheap but if it comes with deflation then we have falling incomes to contend with. And the regular payments on a mortgage are a real problem when you don’t have an income … the main component being the principal repayment. If you can keep your job and income then you are winning … very different from the past 30 years.

          • Tiliqua scincoides

            Same reason I became a homeowner years ago – debt is close to free now and will get closer and closer.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yes. But for hoooooow long? That is the question. Maybe it is forever… from now on. Maybe not.

        On that topic, saw something extremely scary on ANZ home loan site last week: the difference between their 5 and 7 year fixed mortgage rates. If you follow the mantra of ‘the banks are always pricing mortgage interest rates to drive the herd into a more EXPENSIVE future’, and I do, then they’re currently desparate to keep everyone on 5 and less year terms. Deity of choice only knows how high rates will have exploded to after that… given their 7 year term rate starts with a 7! If the ANZ are correct with their current pricing that is.

    • Or perhaps they’re actually just front-running the endless QE that’s coming? The buyers of these bonds aren’t doing too much critical thinking – I doubt they paid a jot of attention to the coupon.



    Estimated number of new homes consented per 1,000 residents up in June year … Statistics New Zealand

    Building consents issued per 1000 residents: Year ended June 1996–2020
    Microsoft Excel Open XML Spreadsheet, 20 KB

    About 7.6 new homes per 1,000 residents were consented in the year ended June 2020, Stats NZ said today.

    This is up from 7.1 new homes per 1,000 residents in the year ended June 2019, partly driven by Auckland, where the number rose from 8.5 in the June 2019 year to 9 in the June 2020 year.

    “Provisional estimates on the number of new homes consented per 1,000 residents help us account for changes in our population, allowing us to better compare the intended supply of new homes over time,” acting construction indicators manager Dave Adair said. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … Comopare New Zealand’s consent / permit rate per 1000 population per annum history and trends with Australia’s ( and others covered by the Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey ) …

    … Kiwis … the trend is our friend ! …

    Australia Dwelling approvals collapse to 8-year low … Leith van Onselen … MacroBusiness Australia
    … behind paywall …

  3. call me ArtieMEMBER

    Australia is not experiencing our second-wave of COV-19. We have yet to experience our first wave, but it may be starting

    • Only in Vic though..seems everyone else managed to keep their quarantine without sex relations

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      But its impossible to eradicate. Well, a few states have shown it is very possible. Tas had a decent outbreak early on at the hospital and Adelaide had the baggage handlers. No virus now.
      I think they mean impossible to eradicate whilst running a population ponzi, so…everyone catch covid please.
      Wont someone think of the ponzi?

      • All that stimulus is going to big business. But not helping small and medium enterprises. Which is what employs most Australians. So yeah right on track for a deep depression. How good is is ScoMo and co.?

    • My real estate agent said to me today – after I sent the copy of the post about the mortgage time bomb – mate you need to stop looking at stats and data. The market here is good.

      That is literally what he said

      • Why would you get into it with an agent? Most don’t care. Just make an offer and move on.

        PS you probably know this..I’m sure.

        • It’s the agent who sold our place

          Kind of a mate, kind of. Looking for some honesty.

          Honesty from an agent? That’s unpossible!

          Unrelated to a purchase just banter

          • RE Agent who is a relative works on sydney’s upper north shore. Houses selling quickly and the Chinese are still very active. 30 groups chasing 1 house. Doesnt speak price crash as yet…..

          • I only ever really had the discussion with 1 agent from South Africa (had moved here) and he agreed he thinks prices are nuts. But like me wasn’t sure when or if it would end. After prices started to go up again I felt a bit silly calling it a crash, but now we are in the middle of Covid-19 I wonder if he thinks of what I said? Probably not, but it’s nice to dream. 🤣

        • Exactly Gav , real estate agents are …. we Are looking in southern Brisbane suburbs, twice I’ve put offers in and they haven’t got back to me.

          Our abode which is a rental is up for sale , the same agent Which is trying to sell the house we live in has a number of properties listed in our area. They have told our owner to expect mid 700k. I’m thinking of putting an offer in direct to owner so this agent misses their commission. What would that be for the big estate chains.

          • If the agent can show you got the lead from them & not directly from the owner, they have clawback & you won’t be able to bypass them. I’ve also heard even once their sales contract times out the same stands…..?

          • Thanks Colin

            The owner actually rang the missus first to see if we were interested in it. This was prior to the agent telling us , owner said we’d been great tenants etc. I thought it will go for more than the agent is telling us/ them and the fact doesn’t have enough bedrooms for family so I said to say we weren’t interested.

  4. Some that have issues with Gigi Foster might look at Bill Mitchell’s long form unpacking considering how such views are dominate in not only economics, but the consideration of life itself aka “Value of Life concepts” which are a cornerstone to most activity in a neoliberal framework or setting public or private.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      Her background is in microeconomics, welfare and behavioural stuff. She is way out of her depth here.
      There isn’t a serious macro-economist in the world who thinks their is a trade off between the economy and public health aspects of this virus.
      The argument makes no sense. I still maintain that if there were no government induced lockdown, the economy would be worse as there would be an equaling contractionary private sector led lock-down without the same pressure / responsibility on the government to counteract it with stimulus.
      What gets to me is the way these people don’t change their views despite the evidence.
      Even when there is a serious public health aspect to it. Its not about you or views, no one cares. If you stand up and say ‘yes I made a huge analytical mistake, now the evidence is in I see I am wrong, lock-downs are the only viable strategy’. People won’t think you’re an idiot.

      • I am aware of her background and how it shapes her perspective, disagree with the framework and methodology used to arrive at her conclusions at onset E.g. behavioral is a post marketing study.

        • Every time I listen to her I think she has no clue

          “Endless migration is awesome because every migrant like me comes here and spends money when they arrive like buying a couch and new tv”. She literally said that to defend endless migration

          She’s a dullard

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Using the trolley problem as an analogy just highlighted how poor the

            In the trolley problem, there is known and immediate trade-off.

            In the real world of coronavirus, there is no trade off – and for those who claim there is, there is no known trade off, and no immediate comparable result from making different choices.

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      Sitting on TV and saying that stuff in such a matter of fact way…that chick is a stone cold killer. Don’t let her near any virus labs or nuclear buttons or leadership ranks of any fascist dictatorships. She scary.

      • I agree. There’s something there that doesn’t reflect just logic and analytical thinking. Or something not there…

    • Interesting link thanks Skip. Added to her indoctrination, I think we can reasonably assume that Gigi’s (doctorX?) actions are somewhat about making a name for herself. Maybe with a side dish of chips on her shoulder.

      • You have to ask the question of who at this point in time, considering the unknowns, put stakes in the ground based on some questionable “normative” econometrics. Especially when past historical occurrences were in a completely different environmental environment, so its a fudge at best to make comparisons without understanding the nature of the beast at this point in the timeline.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s been tracked since March in Victoria, and it seems to show in sewage a few weeks before an outbreak is registered by health services.

      Queensland are probably doing it too.

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    These numbers aren’t going down any time soon lol. There are people fkn everywhere – was in KFC on Bourke for 10 minutes and it was non stop people coming and going.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Jon Faine has a point, isolate positive cases. The home quarantine process isn’t working.

      • Just read his article as much as I agree with him it always comes to the attention how left leaning people love to use ‘locking people up’ reminds me with wuhan bolted doors

        • They (the Left) are very authoritarian by nature and yet they see themselves as champions of free speech and personal freedom!

          As the resident marsupial would say: Wheeeee…..

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Really? Plenty of right wingers like locking people up too. “Lock her up!!!” Eh?

          • Oh I’m not saying the “right” have no desire to lock up individuals like “her” but the “left” want many locked up…

        • Narapoia451MEMBER

          The number of experts here who know exactly what the ‘left’ want talk about things in a way that make them sound like they have never actually spoken with a left leaning person in their lives.

          While it’s true that far left and far right governments lock people up, the US has the highest proton of its population in prison in the world. Social democracies in northern Europe have some of the lowest imprisonment rates. How does that sound with your generalisation?

          The hilarious, monolithic ‘left’ that is talked about like some kind of comic book villain around here exists more in the mind of the posters than in reality.

    • Aussies Not Doing The Right Thing

      Everyone has given up. We’ll get the recession we deserve.

      I’ll be sitting pretty. Hopefully a lot of forced property sales.

      • and to still (twisted to a point) harry’s words – and landlords will get the rents they deserve.

        • Personally I hope landlords get more than that — MB member specufestors excepted, of course. 😉

          • thank you, I started to get worried on my 10, 1 bedroom units I bought from Reusa and rent as share accommodation for 4 students each

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I have a question. Why does everyone think they’ll be sitting pretty?

        Pretty sure carnage is spread far and wide during these little events.

        • If you take 50% of JK recipients and in your model put them on JS then for the rest take a 20% pay cut but still
          Employed what does that do for the employment rate

          Lots of people still going to have jobs

        • Income is subsidised by medicare, and worst case hourly rate still miles above the average. I’ll start to worry when ScoMo moves to get rid of that, but I don’t think even he needs to run a focus group on that decision.

    • Hot ‘n Spicy is back in states where it’s not a permanent fixture, so it’s no surprise.

  6. migtronixMEMBER

    “Melbourne winters arrive rapidly. One day it’s 20C and the next, there’s fog until lunchtime and you know in your bones that the cold is here to stay.

    Ask the locals and they’ll tell you these days are meant for tall boots, wool scarves and thick coats. They’re for warming yourself from the inside-out: ramen in the city, canh chua in Footscray and pho in Springvale. They should be spent fleeing from one glowing shopfront to the next, watching streetlights reflected in the wet road, or racing to a tram, teeth chattering, to meet a friend on Lygon Street. They’re for hissing outdoor heaters, nooks in the State Library, bright sun in Fitzroy Gardens and talking just to see your breath. We’re supposed to be freezing our tits off on the boundary at the local footy, fighting the bracing wind tunnels of Docklands, wiping condensation from train windows and watching the rain come over the Bay. Right now, in the guts of August, we should be in front of an open fire at our favourite pub with our favourite people, ordering a local drop at the end of a long week, and on the weekend getting out of town to watch the leaves change.

    Melbourne winters are meant to be shared. They’re not designed for this.”

  7. Who was saying they knew of a developer selling units at 50% discount on the sly?

  8. futures pointing to bleak future until news comes out of moar stimulus and another very promising vaccine.

    • not to mention all the people who are not doing skin cancer screening or breasts.. or …or etc
      There might be a spike in cancer next year.
      How ever they were talking on the wireless with a hospital guy that the cases for heart attacks have gone down maybe people fear of covid calm their hearts?


      We collected data for 32 583 patients with breast cancer, 24 975 with colorectal cancer, 6744 with oesophageal cancer, and 29 305 with lung cancer. Across the three different scenarios, compared with pre-pandemic figures, we estimate a 7·9–9·6% increase in the number of deaths due to breast cancer up to year 5 after diagnosis, corresponding to between 281 (95% CI 266–295) and 344 (329–358) additional deaths. For colorectal cancer, we estimate 1445 (1392–1591) to 1563 (1534–1592) additional deaths, a 15·3–16·6% increase; for lung cancer, 1235 (1220–1254) to 1372 (1343–1401) additional deaths, a 4·8–5·3% increase; and for oesophageal cancer, 330 (324–335) to 342 (336–348) additional deaths, 5·8–6·0% increase up to 5 years after diagnosis. For these four tumour types, these data correspond with 3291–3621 additional deaths across the scenarios within 5 years. The total additional YLLs across these cancers is estimated to be 59 204–63 229 years.

      • Will someone go to jail for this travesty ?

        I think The Hague needs to be involved


        I agree. I reckon lets let cancer rip also. Mostly old people anyway……………………….

        • Weak.

          I say we roll out all of polio , mumps, measles, Ebola , typhoid, cholera. Why not diphtheria. Also too for fun some MERs . Just let that sh5t rip, y’all


            Covid’s impact on our health systems will eventually make it very difficult to respond properly to most of those diseases, so we might just get to see em rip also! What a time to be alive (although severely ridden by preventable diseases)

      • SARS-CoV-2, the virus has resulted in more than 17 million infections and 667,000 deaths.

        False equivalence.

          • Did you not peruse the link above which does at this moment support your claims and the metrics used to justify them, more so the unknown due to a fraction of the world population being exposed, and all of the various changing environmental factors over vast space.

            What is known is how crippling it can be if left to its own devices how it threatens medical staff for the long run and how that poses questions about those offering Von Newman like GT analysis based on limited criteria of a dubious quality.

          • Skippy

            The data, the assumptions and the estimates relate solely to the UK

            my goodness

            Verbatim from the discussion : “ We estimated that across the four major tumour types, breast, colorectal, lung, and oesophageal, 3291 to 3621 avoidable deaths and an additional 59 204 to 63 229 YLLs will be attributable to delays in cancer diagnosis alone as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown IN THE UK. “

          • Which is correlated to covid how, should I just pick some random numbers on the decrease in road mortality and injury rates to substantiate my economic views in the near term as well – ????

            None of your sort cared about such things as a cost until covid, why now.

            “#LongCovid numbers are high: 35% of people are not back to normal after the suggested ‘recovery’ period.”


      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        So your solution is to chuck out all the COVID-19 patients taking up the hospital beds and throw them onto the streets to die?


        The COVID-19 pandemic is undermining nutrition across the world, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).1 The worst consequences are borne by young children. Some of the strategies to respond to COVID-19—including physical distancing, school closures, trade restrictions, and country lockdowns—are impacting food systems by disrupting the production, transportation, and sale of nutritious, fresh, and affordable foods, forcing millions of families to rely on nutrient-poor alternatives. Strained health systems and interruptions in humanitarian response are eroding access to essential and often life-saving nutrition services.2 Social protection systems in many LMICs are overloaded as vulnerable families struggle to access the food and services they need in the context of an economic downturn.
        Malnutrition could exacerbate the effects of COVID-19 in mothers and children. At the same time, more children are becoming malnourished due to the deteriorating quality of their diets, interruptions in nutrition and other essential services, and the socioeconomic shocks created by the pandemic in LMICs. New estimates by Derek Headey and colleagues3 in an accompanying Comment in The Lancet suggest that without timely action, the global prevalence of child wasting could rise by a shocking 14·3%. With an estimated 47 million children younger than 5 years affected by wasting globally before the COVID-19 pandemic,4 this would translate to an estimated additional 6·7 million children with wasting during the first 12 months of the pandemic—80% of them in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia—and more than 10 000 additional child deaths per month during this same period.3

        10,000 additional child deaths per month

    • SweeperMEMBER

      So absent the lockdown, with even more cases and an even more burdened health system the Daily Mail has concluded that there would have magically been more capacity in the health system and a greater willingness of people to go and get treated for other illnesses…

      • Except lockdowns don’t work

        And you know nothing about medicine : patients getting ct scans and mammograms aren’t competing meaningfully for Covid resources
        And it wasn’t the dailymail concluding anything

        They don’t editorialise unlike this website

        • SweeperMEMBER

          lockdowns don’t work
          governments voluntarily create depressions
          every serious macro-economist across the world is wrong in concluding the is no trade off between the public health and economic aspect of the virus.
          increased fear of a deadly virus which the government is committed to doing nothing about “for the economy” is good for business and consumer confidence
          prudent decision making means making the most harmful and irreversible decision at the beginning of a threat – when you know the least about it/how to manage it.
          the Daily Mail doesn’t editorialize.

          • spot on. The only way to deal with this thing is to get in front of it and act pre-emptively and firmly. Vietnam and Taiwan did that and kicked arse. Helped that they had SARS within living memory and their populations know to fear pandemic. They are also up and running now because consumer confidence is restored. In Australia consumer confidence is not coming back until the virus is gone. People fear losing their jobs for one reason or another – and have stopped spending … which produces knock-on job losses that Morrison has been trying to stop with JobKeeper. We actually need to repeat the full-on lockdown in Victoria with JobKeeper to December, i.e. we just lost 4 months and have to start again, with schools closed, the whole lot. We are in a worse position than NSW after the Ruby Princess.

          • Every serious macro economist wrong? Well apart from the oxymoron of serious and economist I would say it is eminently possible they are all wrong.

        • The FNG.MEMBER

          China started it with their worlds best practice lockdown and eradication efforts. You need to get on to them, tell them they wasted their time.

      • Please keep posting it is a refreshing change from the risible bloviating inanity some here consistently and dogmatically post


        • Is it “trust scientists!”

          Or is it trust random posters on a website for losers

          I’ve posted actually scientific articles, written by PhDs , published in the worlds foremost medical journals

          • The FNG.MEMBER

            Its worth it though, all that effort, because this bunch of losers set national policy on that kind of thing.

          • You’re a paid up registered looser lol

            Any sane person would have realised they were making no progress with these arguments on this looser website and left. You are clearly fcked in the head. Hope you have a good support network and adequate mental health coverage, you need it.

  9. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I hope those virus spreading v1brant chicks get slammed in life and in jail to be made an example of so that other v1brants toe the line! That’s the message for sure.

  10. haroldusMEMBER

    Creating temp tables from current data, updating fields with new/old matrix, then inserting back from temp tables. drop if exists temp table

    checking in test db before doing live db in morning. very fn stressful

    I’ll be having a chardy very shortly

    • Hey what’s the best resource for speed learning SQL? I know the basics and migrated my own website between 2 different CMS a couple of years ago (with help of a friend).

      But I struggle with some of the more advanced functions, I’m specifically working on something for Google Analytics BigQuery exported data for a potential job interview.

    • I’m moving some health informatics apps from QlikView to MSBI using PQ and PBI and it’s doing my head in

      Resident loads and joins ? Nope.
      At least mapping loads are easy with related
      Want a basic accumulation on a counter? Nope. Overly complicated FILTER and SUMMARIZE

      Set analysis in QV easy in comparison

      But the reports and parameterized distro sure is handy

        • I also need to use PANDAS and R in Python. Just need to be motivated enough… Lots of companies asking for it.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            I did Mooks on R with Brown University. More time intensive than I expected and very good for getting up to speed with it.

        • It’s not my core work, just getting into it.
          Yes, though.
          Data in MSSQL
          T&L with Pquery
          Presentation with PBI

          Lightweight stuff but fun.