Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker

The mood remains dour here in Asia with most stock markets on the decline alongside the USD, with the volatility still prevalent in precious metals as we head into the next FOMC meeting. Gold is firming but steady at the $1950USD per ounce level after almost hitting $2000 on the spot price while Bitcoin is starting to break out again above the $11000 level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is surging on bargain buying, up more than 2% into the close to 3293 points, while in Hong Kong,  the Hang Seng Index has rebounded nearly 0.4% to 24868 points. Japanese stocks have slipped further this time, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.1% lower to 22397 points. The USDJPY pair is not finding any love at all, now making a new session low as it breaks below the 105 level:

The ASX200 is clinging on just above the 6000 point level,  finishing 0.2% lower to 6006 points, as the latest CPI print puts in a record decline but this meant almost nothing, particularly to the Australian dollar. The Pacific Peso is on track to break its previous weekly high just below 72 cents as USD weakens:

Eurostoxx futures are down over 0.6% while S&P futures are equally soft, almost back to the Monday morning gap open just above key support at the 3200 point level. Wall Street remains poised here and bears watching for any further falls below that level this week:

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • I posted about something similar this morning in today’s links thread. Interesting. I do wonder if I should sell my NASDAQ position and move to Gold or BTC?

    • This site has talked very frequently about the Yuan’s prospects as a future reserve currency (or an alternative) to the US Dollar and correctly concluded that it has zero chance – certainly in our lifetimes. Yuan digital changes nothing — in fact its relevance is that it serves as confirmation that digital currencies are what the rest of the world will switch to in desperation as their existing currencies fail. But what is a digital currency at the end of the day if not just another fiat currency?

      Gold is ringing the alarm bell right now but it is not compulsory to pay to attention to it – each to their own.

    • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

      Everything back to normal in China. Virus basically eradicated despite 1.4 billion people, dense cities with 20 million plus populations.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        The problem here is that we just aren’t welding people into their houses!

      • Well connected friends in Shanghai inform me that the anti corona virus travel restrictions and control measures will soon be made permanent.

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          Yeah how good are restrictions! Awesomeness. China has nailed it… If you’re a gutless wonder!!! LOLOLOL…

        • That would not surprise me at all. It has good and bad implications. I’ve brn wondering how they we’re going to manage to keep case number low long term and couldn’t think of anything that didn’t involve permanent movement restrictions

      • Don’t count your chickens…

        Also.. any economic acts of sabotage by China play into increasing likelihood of war and general uncertainty.
        Things that can also benefit an incumbent US government as “better the devil you know” to steer through uncertain times.

        Many Americans may well ask, given Biden’s age and deteriorating mental capacity… who would truly be leading the Democrats through such waters?
        Trump has far less support in the MSM, than he actually does amongst the American population, and I think it makes people “tuned in” to media stories far more likely to underestimate the chances he has.
        Going in to a second term, his approval rating amongst registered Republicans is higher than many of his (twice) elected Republican predecessors.
        At the grass-roots level, if you are swapping posts in the places where the people that backed him in the first place congregate, there is still a lot of enthusiasm. And where it has wavered it is for him being “not enough Trump”, not “too much”.

    • Robert Johnson

      Meh, who wants to use a currency the main feature of which is to enable easy tracking by the Chinese government?

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Lol Asian Tigers? Asian Tiger ……………. no plural. Why would any Asian country side with China when China is screwing them over big time. …………

  1. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Jeez looks like NSW and QLD might be joining Vics in big COVID numbers soon.
    Lots of people wandering around for over a week in their states before being tested and diagnosed…… Interesting.

    • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

      Aussies don’t give a stuff about others.

      Too dumb, stoopid, lazy, impatient to stick it out for another one or two months to eradicate it from the country entirely.

      • Aussies Humans don’t give a stuff about others.

        Fixed that for ya.

        Or do you reckon the Chinese were welding their own citizens inside apartment blocks because they are suffused with an excess of caring and altruistic self-sacrifice?

        • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

          East Asia has effectively eradicated or has complete control over the virus. Remarkable really.

          China went to extraordinary lengths to protect the country from the virus and in the end they succeeded. High level of voluntary mask usage, people prepared to abide by lockdowns.

          Australia will get the recession they deserve for stuffing this up.

          It’s probably harsh to single out Aussies. Westerners don’t give a stuff about each other as the virus has shown.

          • “Prepared to abide by lockdowns” = Lol = not a lot of choice when welded inside your own home.

            Of course it worked. It was also necessary – because nothing else was going to work – because Chinese don’t give a stuff about other Chinese.

            And no this isn’t ray cyst – you can replace the nationality with nearly every other one when push comes to shove. It’s people. People are why things fail. People are crap.

          • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

            East Asia has well functioning societies with extremely low crime, high focus on education.

            Western countries don’t.

            Australia made biosecurity the responsibility of Indians working cash in hand. Relatively violent, high crime society compared to East Asia. No marauding gangs perceived of being African appearance terrorising people in Tokyo, no glassings outside of pubs, no ice epidemics.

          • Maybe it’s the more dominant totalitarian government style that can enforce the lockdowns that are necessary?

          • “East Asia has effectively eradicated or has complete control over the virus. Remarkable really… Westerners don’t give a stuff about each other as the virus has shown.”

            The graph of cases presented by the ABC on Japan and Singapore vis a vis Australia do not back your statement.
            (3/4’s of the way down here: ).

            East Asia has had some success stories: Vietnam, Taiwan ..and others less successful and now experiencing additional waves of transmission: Singapore and Japan.

            Same for the West, with NZ doing well and Australia ex Victoria.
            Strength of border controls and rapidity of shutting borders as linked to subduing transmission as anything else.

          • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

            Singapore is one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Japan also has a high population density. Australian cities have very low population density but people still stuffed it up.

          • ChinajimMEMBER

            Yeah, just like those two East Asian women who lied about their travel history from Melbourne and have spread it to Queensland.

            They were really responsible and cared about other people.

          • The FNG.MEMBER

            We were going to have a recession no matter what. Let it rip, recession. Close up, recession. Govts are getting the blame but as if everything would be normal under “let it rip”. We saw virtual panic at the outset with the great dunny paper run of 2020. And like anyone would want to go to a restaurant or sit in a crowded office with the virus around. Everyone over 55 would have quit their jobs.
            Maybe Chinas plan was to cause a recession by forcing borders to close? In which case…thankyou China. This is “the recession I don’t mind having”. Please dog just give us our country back.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Wait until Dole hider is scaled back.
        People are gonna self isolate even less then.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        WTF is Scummo doing warning WA about the court case?

        Geez, they should block the east out forever.

        • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

          The response to this by Sandgropers here is to talk about secession. Like seriously Scorona we don’t want you.

      • How is Clive still able to appear before the High Court……surely they have branded him a vexatious litigant by now ? How many divisions does the High Court have anyway ? The boys in Townsville will come over to the Qld Defence Force to a man.

        The RBQ using swap lines from the PBOC will hold interest rates at minus 1% in perpetuity and 1% 30 years mortgages will be available to all . Need I go on ?

    • Its about democratizing people’s right to the Virus…why should Victoria be the only state with free and unfettered access. NSW and QLD residents are rightly fighting back against this anti democratic position.

    • Remember Gladys is in charge and we can’t just shut down the state because reasons. Hahahahahaha. Enjoy Covid NSW.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      LOLOLOL!! For how long have the scared pansies on here been spouting that rubbish?

  2. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    That Jen Sorensen (unfunny cartoon) would be fun to sit next to on a 12 hour flight while wearing a maga hat 😆

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Sentences I said today I never thought I’d hear anyone say ever:

    – That new Audi A4 looks niiiiiiiiiiice.
    – That poncy branded Bundaberg Small Batch Vintage Cask rum has balllllls; niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice.
    – I’m voting Liberal at the next election.

    Well. I said *two* of those sentences. 😁

  4. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Old bloke asked me today if I knew of any jobs going. Lost his job servicing cafe equipment. Asked him if he’d applied for anything and he told me about a courier job that came up. He was ready so hits the apply button. Within an hour applications were closed because 600 in one hour applying for one job looked like blowing up the system.

    There’s pain out there already, although a younger tradie type told me he heard an economist on the wireless saying that manufacturing was going to inspire a v-shaped recovery. Couldn’t remember the name. Didn’t like what I said in reply either.

    • Jeez. Economists … well paid, highly thought of by impressionable people in the media and the public at large. How was their collective credibility not sh0t 30yrs ago, FFS!

    • DingwallMEMBER

      younger tradie type told me he heard an economist on the wireless

      lol did the younger tradie type use the term “wireless”?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        No, something that disappointment me greatly.

        Oh, but when describing the v-shaped recovery he used a zooming hand motion, like a plane to Bali lifting off. A couple of times actually. Zoom.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            No, let’s just say he wants to believe. They all do. Straya wide. They want to believe.

            The alternative is unthinkable.

        • yeborskyMEMBER

          “there are”

          Sorry, but my decades have taught me how easy it is to be stupid and that if you don’t get the little things right, you will not be seen as able to get the big things right. However…
          The higher up you go, the more mistakes you are allowed. Right at the top, if you make enough of them, it’s considered to be your style. -Fred Astaire, dancer, actor, singer, musician, and choreographer (10 May 1899-1987

        • Speaking of economists:

          “Dr Gigi Foster is a Professor in the School of Economics, at the University of New South
          Wales, Sydney, Australia. Dr Foster received her BA from Yale University in 1996 (majoring
          in Ethics, Politics, and Economics) and her PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland
          in 2003.”

          – doctorX is a doctor but not a medical doctor who reads an economics style blog.

          – Their volume and content of posts on MB suggests they currently have plenty of time on their hands and, while reasonably intelligent, display a fierce opposition to the management of the virus and its associated restrictions based in no small part on the economic impacts and disruption to life as usual (university worker?).

          – They demonstrate a utilitarian attitude to the value of certain human lives, the focus being on the economics ahead of preservation of life (economist?).

          – They brand being labelled “Gigi” as an ad-hominem attack, and yet don’t deny being Gigi.

          Just sayin’…

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      One of my Plumber buddies who I have been restlessly teasing and chastising over his purchase of a second hand “Great Wall” single cab Ute, years ago, has finally purchased a brand new Hulu’s Ute.
      The Great Wall has caused him nothing but trouble with multiple repairs required, constant oil leaks and failing electrics.
      He is worried that the delay in delivering his new Toyota is going to have him towing his old shyte box home and missing out on work until the new one arrives.
      He was told his new truck was the last available from that dealership and the delay is due to difficulty getting hold of the towbar assembly and heavy duty tray.
      It’s been almost 2 weeks now with no committed confirmation when he will be able to take delivery.

      Made me wonder if a lot of those people who have lost their jobs due to COVID 19 have gone out and purchased themselves cheap brand-new single cab Utes In the hope of picking up Courier work or other Ute related work opportunities.

      • Covid19MEMBER

        Mate told me it’s impossible to buy a printer now because wfh and slow manufacture. One of his mates workplaces got stuff stolen including the printer.

        • Not true, bought a printer last week from Office W online and it was delivered the next day, Canon inkjet thing for just under $200

  5. DingwallMEMBER

    bargain buying

    Lol … apparently everything is a bargain … always … forever

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I’m loving the anti-America cartoons of late. LOLOLOL. This one is extra great because the wh1te people look silly and the darkies look in need. It’s like real life!

    • 83% loss rate on retail OTC derivatives according to ASIC. Leverage will come down soon to minimise harm along with guaranteed stop loss and negative balance protection. Broker will have to deal with gapping and liquidity risks.

    • RanganutsMEMBER

      That second link is interesting. Why is it bad though? I would of thought those individuals would come into Australia and buy stuff, stimulating the economy. Much better than someone immigrating and then being put of welfare…

      • They do bring in money, as you say. But they spend a lot of it on houses, helping to price Aussies out of the market.

        I’m all in favour of productive foreign investment but not foreigners hoovering up our real estate.

      • “Much better than someone immigrating and then being put of welfare…”

        I’ll leave you to consider, historically, if importing a foreign over-class, as opposed to a foreign underclass genuinely works out better for the receiving population.

        In truth both suck, which is why mass migration itself is a bad idea for the receiving population, regardless of its makeup.

    • Regarding the millionaire migration.

      Greatest number out: China.
      Greatest number in: Australia.

      Australia has the most effective and simplest means to launder cash amounts in the millions – then to ensure that the laundered money is preserved and safe – in the world.

      It’s even encouraged by the government. There are even government programs that grant citizenship if a decent sum of money is laundered (AUD 5m).

      The money comes in. Mostly from China. No checks, no questions. Whether it comes from illicit drug manufacture, human trafficking, child exploitation, theft, fraud or whatever.. the Australian government doesn’t care and will welcome it and aid and support in laundering it.

    • HNW individuals have screwed London, Vancouver, Sydney housing markets. By squirrelling questionable gains into real estate as part of their laundering process and often leaving the homes vacant.

  7. go RIO.. lol
    Profit down 20% dividends up 3%. Looks like RIO thinks Chyna will be paying $120 for their IO for next 100 years.

    • Would have been a satisfying arrest for the coppers who intercepted her. Would’ve been hard to stop at just one window too I reckon.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      I love the berating and condescending line about “incredibly selfish” and “causing problems for the police”.
      What about the incredibly selfish decision to phone it in on quarantine security and causing problems for millions of people??

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    My approval ratings are very bad. Horrible. Some very bad people who hate this country are a clear majority of Americans. But if you look at the stock market my approval rating is very high, so it’s obviously a personality thing.

    I give my a 10/10
    Bozo. Idiot. Moron. Camera. Action.
    Its very hard – but you couldn’t do it….

  9. Ronin8317MEMBER

    This is why a state-based approach to COVID-19 containment doesn’t work.

    The fact that the two woman can simply change planes in Sydney then claim they never visited Melbourne is a huge loophole. Furthermore, they went out everywhere while sick for 8 days. This is going to be a superspreading event : the numbers will be at least 100 by next week.

  10. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    How depressing and on point was Clives post in that UQ story today,

    July 29, 2020 at 3:30 pm
    Please sir, I want some more (funding).

    Putting aside the shining fact that the likes of Riche Rich Patterson have themselves steadfastly propelled the mantras of neoliberal corporatism and cost-cutting that has allowed UQ to sell its soul, one must marvel at how model of incentivising bad behaviour via a CEO and board running public institutions can create true evil. Neoliberal mission accomplished – as value was found by disposing of those tired concepts such as integrity, academic freedom and free speech and chumming up with a malignant authoritarian state for $s. How this is done is by using the glib, smiling, ‘nice guy’ that Teflon Höj is the quintessential template for. Our universities are being run by ‘non stick’ believers in corporatism – these are not academics, but dangerous pretenders who believe in nothing but the end justifying the means and their own hip pocket.

    Look at every disaster we face in Australia and the same failing is evident. We have deregulated public values and interests and put everything up on the table to be auctioned by the smiling Cheshire cats the likes of Teflon Höj. Let’s not forget that both the LNP and ALP are up to pussy’s bow in the ignorant fiddles that have cut the guts from our tertiary institutions and allowed the barbarians inside to enrich themselves at our cost.

    The only university building that will be named after Teflon Höj will be in China – probably a cell block in a re-education camp.“

  11. Minister for Education Dan Tehan said planning is “WELL UNDERWAY on conditions that will allow for the return of international students”.

    I’m not going to link the Ninefake article.

    Ok, so the Minister for Education’s main priority is on foreign students rather than Aussies students. Shocking and ludicrous in itself.

    But, be well assured that the borders will open. In a matter of months. It is the government’s number one priority right now.

    This blog and commenters here can wear their blinkers if it makes them happy and and they can keep masturbating to their RE crash hallucinations though.

    • That’s old news. They’ve been planning for months and were about to pull the trigger on a pilot program both Melb & Syd involved. They pulled the pin a few weeks ago when the quarantine failure in Melbourne came out. Nothing in the mania has changed, they’ve just put it on ice for a while. But it’s like a broken vase, you can put the parts together but the whole is broken. Migration ponzi can’t be switched on in a way that will make a dent in the economic valley of death we are now in. They will of course try, that’s to be expected.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Having no more lockdowns and Opening the boarders is clearly what the LNP wants to do.
      But circumstances out of their control can change everything.
      If NSW and Qld go the way of Victoria then all the plans of the population ponzi Spruikers will come to 0.
      This COVID debacle has got years (minimum) to play out.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Some of us have (almost) always said that the Gov will never let housing fail and that they would throw the kitchen sink in to ensure it didn’t. Some have literally said that.

      It’s just really hard and depressing to contemplate that we should have appended “and the bathroom medicine cabinet too”. Metaphorically speaking.

      Really sad reflection. On Govt.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Good quality rum helps, apparently, I like a daiquiri, Hemingway strength please

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          As in, pour the rum into the glass, to the top, and just wave a pineapple at the glass, strength?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          It’s why I’m glad there’s a clock on my phone. Saved so much money on watches since then.

          Edit: Oh. “glass … full”… My bad.

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      Chinese might not be back in the same numbers even with fully open border. Check out the Chinese reddits, they wont let anyone forget that we’re all racists and we attack Chinese people daily. Indians will have hard time finding jobs since “mutual obligation” is kicking in.

      Imagine going through all this crap to suppress/eradicate the virus and then the feds just open the border, no quarantine, come on in, no worries. Spread takes off…boomers are going to love that!! Saw a boomer in woolies with his scarf wrapped around his face, in Tassie. Lol, dont tell me the boomers arnt sh!##!ng themselves.

    • No doubt the feed gov wants the borders open and foreign students back. TheChinese well had been poisoned and its not beyond the realm of possibility the Chn gov will put certain countries on a verboten list of places to study. Straya would habe to be a contender. For the other students, who has the money for study in a foreign country these days? They Matt want to come but can they afford to? Somehow I reckon the south Americans, the Indians and the Nepalese and even the Europeans would find it difficult to afford the money to either get here or fund their existence here. Foreign students making up most of the soup kitchen clients ain’t a good look

  12. revert2mean
    July 29, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    My PM investments have more than doubled in value, skip. You keep wagging your finger at me and I’ll keep profiting. Suits me 👍

    July 29, 2020 at 5:55 pm

    Then you wonder why agw is ignored.

    • You got it, skip. Like Alex Turnbull making his tens of millions on renewable investments, and then at last election threatening to use his wealth to destroy any politician that doesn’t believe in AGW making him wealthier.

    • @above thread … intention was not to personally attack or score points, only to highlight a perspective which I think Veblen points out all to well E.g. absentee investors. Especially when one considers the decades of neoliberal anti labour preferences in how it relates to investor sentiment, per se jack welsh or munger corporatist machinations.

      Now everyone is looking for he fainting couch because the Cheese people are going to takeover … sigh … that ship sailed a long time ago.

      • I heard from Chris Martenson that the dose of virus you get determined how sick you got. That’s why ventilation is very risky.

        • Viral Load is a thing. A replication race between your white blood cells and the virus. The difference between a tiny viral droplet and a larger viral load is replication time.

        • Ventilation has nothing to do with the ‘dose of virus’. Except that if you get a bigger ‘dose of virus’ you’re possibly more likely to end up needing a ventilator.

  13. Charlie Pickering’s the weekly on abc tonight featured a not very funny segment on immigration arguing that because the government’s cherry picked statistics say that high immigration hasn’t affected Australian’s way of life therefore everyone who doesn’t agree is a middle-aged drunken yobo at a backyard bbq. Please can you DLS prepare a riposte for all of us to send?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      That’s toats unfair. Some of this lot are crotchety-quite-aged drunken yobos who rarely get invited to backyard bbqs.

    • I mean, it’s as if, you need a single page with the cogently argued points, laid out with nice graphs and tables, and heck, even a PDF to be shared.

      Not to be whingey, of course.