Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar drops as RBA talks it down

by Chris Becker

Asian stock markets have again had a mixed session following yesterday’s faltering start the trading week with a mid session reversal of risk taking as the gold/silver/Bitcoin speculative nexus suddenly reversed their bubble like ascent. Gold almost hit $2000 on the spot price while Bitcoin made a new yearly high. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was up more than 1% before the lunch break and is now trailing off into the close to only be up a handful of points to 3216, while in Hong Kong,  the Hang Seng Index has rebounded nearly 0.4% to 24707 points.

Japanese stocks have slipped again with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.2% lower to 22657 points. The USDJPY pair came back slightly at the mid session to the mid 105 level but is looking tenous here even though the weak USD meme maybe flipping in the short term:

The ASX200 was above the 6100 point level earlier in the session but sold off swiftly towards the close to almost break below the 6000 point psychological level finally finishing 0.3% lower to 6020 points. The Australian dollar re-engaged above the 71 handle alongside gold, almost breaking its previous weekly high just below 72 cents but slipped in afternoon trade alongside all the undollars:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are relatively calm with the former only up 0.1% or so with the latter still looking weak here just above key support at the 3200 point level. Wall Street remains poised here and bears (sic) watching for any further falls below that level this week:

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Comments

  1. any reason for the sell off in bonds? I was told supposedly not wanting to hold a low yielding weakening USD asset but I don’t know about that. If that’s true then there should have been a pick up somewhere else better. Maybe a big profit taking in gold or big profit take before the fed?

    • Personally I see no point in holding Bonds at such low interest rates. Unless trying to preserve capital, but it appears Gold,Silver, BTC is doing a better job of that. So I’d be more inclined to invest in those than I would Government bonds which as you point out are tied to fiat.

  2. The slam on Gold & Silver was pretty epic.

    Interestingly it coincided with the Indian market open – which is when it jumped yesterday.

    • Mea culpa. I sold a bit of silver yesterday to take some profits.

      Also, drt15, if you are reading this, I asked you a question last week, but it got lost somewhere. If you see it today, I would appreciate a response.

      Your comment from a couple of days ago re: gold buy/sell. Quote: “You can buy (or any friends/family on your behalf) $5,000 with cash payments which are not traceable. sell it back when the time comes the same way, all untraceable”.

      Q: I know of plenty of places to buy gold cash. Any places to sell though on the same conditions? Will they pay you cash or will it be a bank transfer, so traceable?

      • Sorry Max, I actually don’t know. Meant to look into it and forgot. Will try to find out.

      • Off the top of my head, I guess you could try Ebay if none of the Wpac/Collins St mob will do it.

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    I had a dream last night that needs analysing.

    I was having a nap on the couch when the screen door opened. Lo and behold it was Mathias Cormann, carrying a parcel that the postie had left on the doorstep. One of those yellow overnight packets. Anyhow, Cormann doesnt hand it to me, he tears it open, looks at what I bought, sneered, threw it at me then went to walk out. I saw red. I jumped up and tackled him onto his back, then tried to smother him with some dirty underwear that just happened to be laying around. He had finally stopped struggling when I woke up, but not yet dead, which I very much desired.

    Discuss.

    • Those self-entitled pr1cks at Wanberal sh1t me more than I can express in words. Rich idiots who built fancy gaffs on sand dunes, then want everybody else to pay to fix their problems when the ocean washes the dunes away. WTF did they think was going to happen?

      The whole episode is Australian society in a microcosm.

      • Yes. If nature is allowed to take its course and there are no bailouts, no one will be more shocked (or more delighted) than me.

        • With everything else going on, I suspect we will get out wish. The schaudenfreud is gonna be YUGE!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Has anyone suggested that it was the weight of the stairs going down to the beach that caused the dune collapse?

      • Peeps who watch it for a few days…..I’ve been a stacker for 6 years and this is most bullish I have ever seen the PMs

    • silver is one of the worst things to trade I’ve found, so far so good though. No one will believe it if this is all one big fake out on weak USD, surely not

      • Bought $95k at $14. Now around $145k. By far one of the best INVESTMENTS I have ever made.

    • Claiming rent after the bank has foreclosed. It’s the Aussie way! They were just having a go!

    • Read that today and it made me check the laws in qld, I thought they always had to honour the lease in a bank taking possession but not so. My current rental was only purchased recently and I have concerns it’s some over stretched idiot punter who will be forced to sell up just after I’ve just settled in.

      As to the owner in that story – what an idiot!!!

      • The parasites want to know everything down to your blood type for when they bleed you. Seriously applying for a rental is like going for a job interview. Now the tables are turned, I think landlords Should have to show proof they are not insolvent or close to.

        • I’ve just sent a lengthy list of lease non compliance and tenancy law non compliance’s to our agent and the owner is next

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I once saw an apostrophe
            That spoke to me
            It curved its little bottom
            Cursed its luck that had turned rotten
            And as unnecessarily as it came, I saw it flee.

      • How fuming will they be when they realise they were just subletting from the bank

  4. Banana ManMEMBER

    How long has the X-ray and wand been used. In the airport? Extremely intrusive Jian bloke got right in there. BNE

    • Watch those Jians they love a burly Aussie bloke. You see more men holding hands and hugging in India, in fact it’s almost a crime for men and women to touch in public.

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    At least they’re not skimping 😂

    “Hi Miguel,

    I hope you are having a great start to the week! I wanted to let you know about an interesting role that we are currently sourcing for, should you be interested and fit the essential requirements. Alternatively, if you know of someone else who would be a good fit we do offer a generous referral bonus for placed candidates.

    Role: Data Analytics Engineer
    Company: AUSTRAC
    Rate: $1,000 – 1,200 + Super
    Duration: 12 Month Contract + 12 Month Extension
    Location: Barton, Canberra”

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Oh gawd. Imagine earning such a low pay. Even the relations girls earn more than that a day and that’s the chinamen ones. LOLOLOL. Wage earners are hilarious. Throw them a biscuit!!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Bugger me, I can earn that much in my bottom feeder part time job and I don’t even know how to turn a computer on!

      Is this one of those skills shortage things?

      • I think it’s a daily rate mate. Data Analytics Engineers can earn $300k+ in some companies…

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Well it’s still not right! I could damn near earn that much when I was a mining bogan, and I couldn’t even turn a computer on!

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Presentation? Lol no Spark streaming big data model execution – so ML mostly. I suppose someone will take the csv I produce a pretty dashboard. Or maybe I’ll do it datadog or kibana.

    • It punched $2k today and “someone” shorted it to low $1900s in seconds. Now who has the shorting firepower to do that? Anyone? The monkey slams in the 1-2% range cost “someone” $1-2 billion each time. I can only wonder how much that huge DUMP cost today….Can’t have it going up too fast can we now.

      • Nope. I think a lot of people were expecting this to happen as soon as it got through the old high. Apart from the inv returns the PM markets are vastly entertaining

        • Reuters data shows demand is higher than the supply too. The could be a massive short of someone selling lot of paper gold freshly printed by one of the dealer banks – not backed by anything off-course.

  6. Soon enough melbourne will run out of meat and people over 70 but still stuck with stupid government local and federal who prefer to fight rather work to help people

    • If we run out of meat I suggest we start eating Vegan’s and Hipsters. That will keep us going for months.

        • Don’t worry I’m not serious. I’ve actually been thinking about cutting down on meat. I eat a full leg of lamb on my own sometimes and I’m starting to think it’s not a great idea. All that fat.

          • No dramas my mates are the worst. Never hear the end of it. I don’t judge or preach. I don’t like the fact that most animals are babies when killed.

          • I used to work with this guy.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKX-gNv0AwU
            We trained together a few times when I visited the US office and I remember he had a lot more endurance than I. He used to be a big meat eater and started to transition to Vegan diet. Of course I was a bit jet lagged from travel (which always takes me a week to recover) but I was impressed with his energy level.

            I then read the book “Vegan Bodybuilding & Fitness: The Complete Guide to Building Your Body on a Plant-Based Diet by Robert Cheeke” but didn’t like all the Soy Based meat products being recommended and it seems to upset the stomach. But I’m still keen to learn more. I’ve started my own veggie patch in the yard which I think makes a difference. Home made vegetables seem to have much more flavour.

          • You can Google vegan athletes. Many out there top of their game. Patrik Baboumian, Barny du Plessis, Venus Williams, Lewis Hamilton, Colin Kaepernick, David Haye just to name a few.

          • I’m weighty, there is much vegan processed junk food out there too. Good eating takes time to prep, but you can convert most any dish. Indian is Veg based, and meat is an option most Indian restaurants don’t serve in India, same goes for most Asian cultures (traditionally).

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Fat is not your enemy, in fact it’s very good, sugar and carbs do all the damage, so enjoy your leg of lamb

          • @Snapped I agree that fat that bad (but it is Saturated still) but I just feel heavy and weighed down after eating that much meat. So I’d like to reduce the amount I eat.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            I’ve tried to get everyone here to watch this and get their calcium score done before, some like skippy were just too amazing to need to do it, but this Ivor Cummins, you probably know him already, did this awesome vid many years back
            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UZoQiDaWnuE

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Yeah that’s right, when you’re 50 get a calcium score done, see how much you love sugar then

      • Dr said to my Mum in the early 70s that if she didn’t eat meat she would die. Was it Dr X? Possibly.

  7. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Australia needs to build a pair of battery factories or cede our energy independence by 2030.
    💥
    There’s a fkn re-industrialization policy for youse all.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Australia produces ~43% of the global supply of lithium. It is almost wholly processed in China.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      88 of the 115 giga-factory size battery factories planned to be operating by 2030 will be in China.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      One kilowatt-hour of battery capacity needs about 60 kWh of raw power to manufacture.
      Australia would need a nuclear power plant if it was to minimize emissions.
      Two factories would consume around half the plant’s output.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        (Also possible with massive solar farms, but Australia would be reliant on the panels coming from OS)

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Relying on others to sell batteries, and their associated control systems, would cede a great deal of sovereignty.

    • I don’t know why we are not using this crisis to build massive solar arrays and battery farms plus rebooting a car industry with a national backed car company that produces electric vehicles. Which would support a lot of industry from sheet metal processing and tooling industry to micro chip and processors and all the electronic components from resistors to diodes and metal casting / foundaries etc..

      If I was in charge this is what I would be doing.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Yep. Just electric bikes would be a start.

        Frydenburg has demonstrated the Capital is there if needed.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          There is a big market for electric bikes, but I wonder if everyone who wants one has one.

          I had a great Wisper 912 Alpina that some fvcker stole from my unit car park, so have been thinking about getting a Gazelle or eZee something, or maybe one of those cargo bikes like the Yuba

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Very hard to buy one in Melbourne at the moment.

            Gotta love the older boomer ladies on their battery powered 20kg step throughs fanging past the MAMILs on the Yarra trail.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      We have got 10 years. All of our economy relies on cars and trucks to operate.
      Once electric vehicles are dominant, it will not be profitable to sustain the supply chain needed for combustion engines and they will become a niche product, like the steam engine. 😀

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          😀 I might be going shutin crazy. There is only so much home schooling one can bear!

      • Most of Asia is already electric / hybrid on a huge scale.

        World will be electric by 2025 – China has several times larger battery network than the rest of the world combined – 400 electric car manufacturers.

        Australia is just a ridiculous outpost in the middle of nowhere that judges things based on their own experience as though it were somehow relevant.

        Mate we don’t even have viable broad band internet.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Yep, that’s a common attitude and I’ve heard it many times from people who have never made anything more complicated than Lasagna! 😆

      • And just how many of the soon-to-be homeless, unemployed and broke are going to be able to afford these cars?

        Never going to happen

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      While 5 years ago was the time to begin, staring this year would be better than next.

    • QuentinMEMBER

      I do wonder how long of single digit or zero ICU numbers or deaths in Sweden before the haters have to concede they may have been on to something. A few weeks? Month? Christmas/peak of their winter?

      Collectively, Australia is well and truly under the spell of the magic of lockdowns to cure all woes. I also do wonder if conceding the point above coincides with some lockdown revisionism…

      • Sweden changed course weeks ago – article just doesn’t bring that up. See my post below.

        • What completely changed course?? They never truly ‘let it rip’ and have always had the band on mass gatherings and regulations in hospitality. But crucially; No lockdown.

          But kidding yourself if you think a population is compliant 24/7, essential industries aren’t still open or any government will have appetite for mass restrictions with such low case numbers- so my question remains entirely valid in my humble. Or is it weeks/months more scrambling for other reasons to fit the narrative of Club Doom to explain lack of doom?

    • Sweden admitted their approach was a failure and completely changed course weeks ago – thats why things are better.

      Do some basic research mate – Zerohedge is a dangerous website that spruiks a lot of rubbish in bad faith.

      That article goes on to say that lockdowns to not work.

      Think about this for one minute – China with 1.5 BILLION people had the single most draconian lock down and testing regime of anywhere – they had 4,000 deaths. They have not had more than 10 cases since may, they have averaged less than 20 since FEBRUARY.

      USA has 4 MILLION cases, with a 175,000 dead people.

      Your assertions are just crazy dingbat numb skull lunacy.

      If Zero is posting about anything other than the economy – do not read it – its there for the revenue from clickbait.

      • Can't Socially Distance

        While I don’t believe much of what comes out of China, I think we can trust the information in the last few months because we haven’t had any leaked videos showing overwhelmed hospitals, traffic data back to normal, economic data back to normal.

        They’ve done a remarkable job at the end of the day to suppress this virus along with much of Asia.

  8. I was lucky today.. Yesterday I bought 10k SBM along with 10k ALK and this morning decided to sell both along with the 10Oz PMGOLD (PMGOLD sold around 11am) I bought last week.
    Went for a walk and had a wtf face when I got back and looked at the 4x 49″ DELL curved monitors.

    • Niko, good timing! Have you looked at the Chesser announcement today out of the trading halt? Up 152%, you could have sold for 200% after lunch. A bigly find!

      • yes, great find but this time I did not hold any. Wanted to by last Friday and forgot, when I went to place a bid on Monday morning they were already in trading halt. I am familiar with their exploration in Senegal since they started.. as I said I traded them many times, starting when their shares were just above 3c.

    • Niko, I thought of you…I sold all my gold, and almost all my shares about 10 mins before the cliff today!

      Finished a meeting, came back and, whoa! Seemed overcooked to me, so I sold heaps, but didn’t think my timing would be quite so accidentally good…seems we both semi-fluked it again!