Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker

Asian stock markets have reacted poorly to the overnight slump on the NASDAQ with concerns mounting about the lack of breadth in the rally, plus the economic fallout between rising US/China tensions.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down over 2% to 3250 points, accelerating in the selloff while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is doing the same, down nearly 2% to 24801 points. The daily chart shows support at the 25000 point barrier has been broken and key ATR support coming up sharply as momentum heads into negative territory:

Japanese stocks remain closed for a super duper long weekend while the USDJPY pair has finally broken down as USD sells off sharply, heading straight through support and now in the low 106’s as the Yen safe haven buying accelerates:

The ASX200 is down over 1% going into the close, currently at 6024 points and fighting to hold on to the 6000 point psychological level. The Australian dollar that is falling in a violent inversion, having made another new session low as it struggles to hold below the 71 handle:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling sharply with the latter looking to break down below key support at the 3200 point level, with the NASDAQ about to break its own three week long support level too:

Have a good weekend, stay safe and look out for each other!

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  2. Ok. Things are starting to look bit dodgy worldwide. If the US markets don’t go up overnight then Monday is going to be real interesting.

    Having said that, plunge protection teams are probably furiously printing money right now to ensure the S&P et al rise in the next session, regardless of the actual state of the economy or value of the companies.

    • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

      Yep. Pompeo speech ramping up pressure on China. Interesting that Trump is now advising to wear a mask when needed and Pompeo said in his speech “today we sit wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP failed in its promises to the world”. I think Trump backflipped so he can blame China further…

      • Yep, China is going to wear much blame leading into the election. Lots of financial bribes are being readied by the incumbent administration too …

      • migtronixMEMBER

        He didn’t black flip so he could blame China, he did it so he stops bleeding Florida.

        China was the clumsy excuse

      • Very good point – the pivot has been pretty obvious this week. I would not be shocked at all in a military intervention in Iran or similar between now and November Turd.

        • Trout à la Crème

          Yeah what happened to that post impeachment trial whitewash/middle of election World War 3 with Iran. I suppose that one is down the memory hole like the Russia thingy. Perhaps he should just pay off Iran like Bama did and call it a legacy.

        • I doubt Iran is soft target but anything’s possible. About a year ago I posted a link from Orlov claiming US is looking for soft target as they are almost broke and need major confrontation in order to reset the system.. or something along those lines.
          I can’t see US attacking Iran without Russian sanctions being lifted. Russia and China will probably provide direct support to Iran.
          Main aim of Russia and China now is to make sure US can not plunder another large country and as a result go broke. US is becoming desperate, on the other hand, so anything’s possible.

          • Wow you biased why these are machines only profit matters nothing else colour size no pr0fit now fuk off learn

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Powell is gearing up the elephant in case he needs to trample everything in his path as he goes “brrrrrrrr”

    • I expect the market to rise or at least not face a major correction until late Aug/Sept at the earliest. Trump will get Powell/Mnuchin to intervene if the market drops too far.
      If election polls stay where they are by late Aug/Sept expect Trump and co to engineer a crash (by PPT not stepping in) going into Oct and try to pin the blame on Biden
      This will be his main talking point – markets are reacting to risk Dems will be in power etc. Keep focusing on that and stay on message.
      The economy is one area Trump leads Biden on so his best bet is to scare people into thinking the market will tank if Dems get in.

      • I concur with your assessment, but not so sure about the results. In other words, I think you’re right about Trumps strategy, but whether he can actually sustain the markets is another matter. If the foreign markets Chris discusses above all start to die in the ar$e in unison independent of the US markets, then all the corruption and stupidity in the world Fed support will probably be in vain.

        • He/Powell have managed to do it so far. US drove the recovery in the last bear market so perhaps generous congress passes a generous stimulus package with Trump checks again + a rumor of more QE would do it.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Ridiculous. Unemployed people don’t care about the market and they don’t vote for corporate tax cuts.

        • Nope but swing voters and boomers with large 401ks do. Not saying it will ultimately work but unless he has some big dirt on Biden, this is his best strategy.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      markets are stuffed when they realize the Republicans are going to block further stimulus.

  3. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Hey hey hey Chris, what’s with the early knock off mate? You aren’t allowed to visit a coastal town for a long weekend anymore so we’d like these about 4.30pm please.

    • POETS day mate…..actually its a scheduling thing for me, getting around school run and music lessons etc – so its either get it early or at about 6pm on a Friday….:D
      And in non-Victorian QLD, we’re all Homelanders here….

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    It’s been so bloody cold. Barely gets over 10 c and even then real feel is 6 c.

    Endless misery for another 6 weeks at best!

    I forgot to mention, the stupid masks condense your breath so it’s constantly clamy and cold! 😡

    • I walked the dog along the Yarra in Warrandyte today. Wore a bandana as a face mask. Not comfortable. Figs up my sunglasses too.

      Gas bill is $500+ and I don’t put it on that often Hydronic heating. Thankfully I have a wood fire to keep warm and it’s only winter.

      In Sydney our landlord was so tight he didn’t have any heating or cooling in the home. So our gas bill was rarely more than $80.. but it was of course cold. Saved money though!

      • call me ArtieMEMBER

        Nice place Gav. I walked in Pound Bend Park there two weeks ago. Then did Jumping Creek Reserve last week. Not allowed out anymore, because more than 1km from home. Bummer. Very nice there on a cold clear morning. But sshh! Don’t tell anyone

    • I don’t want to be a pedant, but isn’t endless misery that ends in 6 weeks not…”endless”?

    • I know how you feel. Unlike Melbourne Sydney is not exactly a frozen hell yet the optimal temperature for me is 31°-32°C i.e. I feel comfortable 6-8 weeks a year. My solution to combat low temperatures is to use a hair dryer from Kmart ($10 )

  5. “If they don’t come for testing, we’ll drive a truck to the end of their street and we’ll test them there. The way that you deal with this is you don’t get frustrated about it. You don’t wallow in concern about it. You just take action.” Said by SFM Found in the Age.
    Lol I can’t wait to see him driving the truck around.
    Also well played passive aggressive with chairman Dan

  6. “Homekeeper”??

    How about a “HomeSeeker” scheme that isn’t just some big BS project that leads to higher house prices?

      • You’re right Mig. Silly me. I was just daydreaming I was living back in Oz before John Howard stuffed it all up and set Australians upon one another.

        • John “Rancid Weasel” Howard was the worst thing that ever happened to this country. His hubris, stupidity and venality have impoverished and immigrated us for generations.

          I don’t actively hate many people, but he’s definitely on The List.

          I will wildly celebrate his death. Later, massively hungover, I will stand proudly in the huge queue waiting to vandalise his tombstone and sh1t on his grave.

  7. Chinese diplomat accused of spying operation in US used to work in Australia
    By defence correspondent Andrew Greene and foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic
    Posted 2hhours ago

    Cai Wei met with several Australian politicians, including now-Social Services Minister Anne Ruston.(Supplied: Chinese Embassy)
    A Chinese diplomat accused of using fake identification documents in the United States was until last year the second-most-senior figure inside China’s embassy in Canberra, where he met regularly with Australian politicians.

    Cai Wei, the Chinese Consul-General in the city of Houston, is refusing orders by the Trump administration to close the diplomatic compound which is suspected of running sophisticated espionage activities.

    Between 2014 and 2019, the career diplomat served as the Deputy Chief of Mission at the Chinese embassy in Australia, and had previously worked in other posts including the five-eyes intelligence partner country Canada.

    In 2018, the ABC revealed Cai Wei used a dinner gathering with Labor MPs in Canberra to strongly deny the Chinese Communist Party was trying to control foreign students studying in Australia.
    The US State Department has accused the Houston consulate of engaging in “subversive behaviour” and says Cai Wei and two other diplomats used fake identification when escorting Chinese travellers through Houston’s international airport.

    According to the New York Times, investigations into the Houston consulate have included examining attempts to illegally transfer medical research and other sensitive information from institutions in the area.

    It has also been accused of plans to persuade more than 50 researchers, professors and academics in the area to turn over tightly held research or information to Chinese institutions, and of coercing Chinese citizens in the United States, whom the Chinese Government has deemed fugitives, to return to their homeland.

    Cai Wei (far left) also met with then-agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce.

    On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said “it’s always possible” his administration would close more Chinese missions in the United States.

    In response to the US’s demand, China has ordered the US to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu.

    Earlier this week, firefighters in Houston were reportedly called to the Chinese consulate because papers were being burned, after the United States had given consular workers three days to shut down the office.

    In a statement, a US State Department spokesperson said the move was made “in order to protect American intellectual property and Americans’ private information”.

    “The United States will not tolerate the PRC’s violations of our sovereignty and intimidation of our people, just as we have not tolerated the PRC’s unfair trade practices, theft of American jobs, and other egregious behaviour.”

    On Wednesday, Republican senator Marco Rubio, a member of the US Intelligence and Foreign Relations committees, tweeted that the office is the “central node of the Communist Party’s vast network of spies & influence operations in the United States”.

    A spokesperson for the Australian Government has declined to comment on Cai Wei’s time in Australia following this week’s revelations in the United States.

      • FFS. US accusing anyone of spying is ultimate pot kettle stuff. Once Our ABC may have questioned or countered such obvious spin but there is not an independent thinker left in that collective.

        US is waging a war of opinion at best, something more sinister, possibly. The anti-China rhetoric is on warp-speed, bolstered by warmongering Hawks and Trumpist opportunism re the election. Problem is, it could all easily go pear-shaped.

        The Australian media and Government are lackeys – about time we exercised intelligent discourse and salutary retinence.

          • How did you discern that from my comment?

            ABC is far from hard left, more a sort of squidgy soft equality for all conformist uni left. The kind of left that keeps its jobs, looks down on non tertiary educated and reaps the comfortable benefits of secure well-paid employment. Once there was a maverick or two…

            Now ABC promotes whatever is de jour.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            “US accusing anyone of spying is ultimate pot kettle stuff. Once Our ABC may have questioned or countered such obvious spin but there is not an independent thinker left in that collective”

            I read that as meaning the ABC is now staffed by neocons.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      That’s appalling but not unexpected. Just the picture of that grinning cretin Barnaby gives some pretty accurate insight into both the situational awareness and overall calibre of our elected representatives and betters.

    • Barnaby’s smile.. I just sold 1/2 of Australia to China, $100m in my Cayman Is account and these fckrs are going to re-elect me again.

      • It wasn’t me!

        That’s about 45 minutes no traffic jams from home. I haven’t been further than 5 km from home in nearly 2 weeks!

          • No truly there’s a world of difference between the eastern and western sides of the peninsula! One is a hellhole urban conurbation, the other, well we still have decent green spaces between the towns (but let’s keep that a secret ok?) with a functioning ag sector. The eastern side of the peninsula is an extension of Hellbourne with only faint vestiges of it’s rural past surviving, we on the eastern side can at least still maintain a semi defensible pretense that we aren’t a Hellbourne extension, though we kinda are. I only cross over for acupuncture and my naturopath 😉

  8. I loved watching Yahoo Serious movies as a kid.

    He’s now 67 and on Centrelink and being evicted because he can’t afford rent.

    A brilliant Australian artist. Don’t know the details exactly.. maybe he was fleeced in a divorce. Yet there’s hundreds of thousands of parasite boomers his age who are millionaires through simply the dumb happenstance of buying a home 30 years ago or buying IPs over 10 years ago.

    • In fairness $27k behind on rent is like a year behind.. you’d think you’d move out sooner?

      • blacktwin997MEMBER

        He might have been pinning his hopes on his time machine prototype coming good.

        • Shades of MessinaMEMBER

          Sometime in the next 10,000 years,
          A comet’s gonna wipe out all trace of man,
          I’m banking on it being before,
          My end of year exams

    • That’s the truth. In my experience the dumber the boomer the richer they are. Gotta laugh though.

    • Unfortunately Australia has become a place where the dumb person, talentless person and greedy “takers” are rewarded. Not only rewarded but imported in populations. The brains, contributors and decent people are disadvantaged and pushed down for this cause and subsequently leave.

      I think it’s a perfect combination of parasitic greed, political correctness and a collectively dumbed down intelligence of the population through a select multiculturalism that’s produced the current and future Australia.

  9. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Wonder if the ancestors of Edward Willian Coon from Philadelphia will be a tad upset that his name has been cancelled from the great cheese he invented . I’m sure the bright young woke things in marketing at that company won’t mind if I don’t but their new rebranded product ….what ever the fcuk they call it …

    • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

      Woke Cheese and it won’t be yellow so as to not offend the Asian community.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Edam! You have to tread caerphilly around so many topics these days.It’s a shame for his ancestors this has ocurd.

    • That honestly doesn’t worry me either way if they decide to change it

      That is some dogged determination and if Saputo are ok with it so be it

      Honestly, there are bigger things to worry about

      Who the heck eats it anyway ?

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Shure ’nuff, ole Davey Crockett’s kin gun be wicked upset ’bout his hat a’hanging there jes ‘bove dam dartboard and they caint call it fur what it be.

    • Next they’ll be campaigning to change surnames like Brown and Black. They’ll also want to change White because that symbolises oppression of indigenous peoples.

    • wondered when this would happen TT … I’m going down to the supermarket tomorrow to buy a packet so I can frame the label – and I will never, ever buy the rebranded product …..

      • I’ll keep buying the product less farmers being woefully underpaid for the milk but how long can you keep supporting indigenous recognition when they insist on demonstrating when we’re supposed to be isolating or changing things because of perceived racism by a product versus genuine racism. Lost my support.

    • Well that will fix the problem with racism. Good to see all those rallies have brought about all that much needed changes, instead of focusing on the true inequality we face like Frydenberg pushing more trickle down BS or banking reform or the game of mates or any of the other structural problems that keep the boot on the neck of your average Australian. Nope we fixed it. We renamed Cheese.

  10. haroldusMEMBER

    Reckon the Storm can bring up a century against the Broncos?

    Bonus point – infect them with Wuflu.

  11. Bitter Looser Renter

    Apologies if this is old hat to some, but a salient warning I think.

    A mate lost his job last month with a small corporate events hosting firm which has finally thrown in the towel since there is nothing on the horizon for them as COVID rolls on. He had a corporate credit card and has just been informed today that he is jointly and severally liable for the debt, and since the company is now in administration and can’t pay, the bank expects him to cough up $27,000 odd. It seems that the boss told the accounts people to use his card number to pay rent and power etc for the last 2 months.

    This is on top of losing his job. Speaking to an accountant mate, it seems this is standard terms / conditions for corporate credit cards but usually not a live issue?

    • Using someone else’s credit card without their permission is fraud even if it’s the owner of the business.

      • Bitter Looser Renter

        Yeah, I could not figure that out, but since it was provided and paid each month (well until recently) by the employer, it seemed like any business cost could go on it, or at least that is how it went down. Suffice to say he never gave it a second thought …

        • Any business cost can go on a company credit card. What it comes down to is did the person who was assigned the card know these expenses were being billed to the card. In previous jobs I had a company card and got a statement each month I had to reconcile to. If your friends company just paid the bill I’d be very concerned as I’d sure as fvck would want to know what was being spent in my name.

    • Is this the one who is married to your sister and wanted a loan (serious question) or am I getting this confused with a different poster?

    • There would be an implied agreement – I suspect the Director of the company is still legally liable, or it gets wrapped up with the Pty LTD.

      Your friend probably needs to speak to a lawyer. Might need to sue, or seek out of court settlement.

      Either way, I don’t think the employee will have to wear the debt.

  12. SweeperMEMBER

    how good is freedom
    free to leave quarantine
    free to refuse to be tested
    free to go shopping after your test
    free to be un-contactable when you are positive
    free to blame everything on the government

    • migtronixMEMBER

      How good is tyranny:
      Can’t go anywhere
      Can’t do anything
      Get fined for trying
      Die of covid because tyrant runs incompetent security!!

    • Yeah but how good is Covid-19, smashing the Ponzi. Rewriting rules. Making Politicians look like numpties with no control.

  13. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Holder wins the toss and sends the poms in to bat again. Hope it works better than last time.

  14. SweeperMEMBER

    By far the worst argument from the “its just the flu” resident doctors is the ‘but the fatality rate rate is lower’.
    If the fatality rate is falling *over time* that means that herd immunity is exactly the wrong strategy

    • You are the least clear thinking person I think I’ve ever encountered

      Almost schizophrenic , your thought processes are so disordered

      • walk me through the logic then:
        When the risks around the virus clearly reduce over time (as we learn more about it / how to deal with it / have more resources to deal with it), why is it a better strategy to bring infections forward to the beginning (where the risks are greatest)?
        I wish I could think clearly like you.

        • “… reduce over time (as we learn more about it / how to deal with it / have more resources to deal with it), why is it a better strategy to bring infections forward to the beginning (where the risks are greatest)?..”

          You misunderstand the MB “doctors” strategy. It is more like this.

          “.. reduce over time (as we learn more about it / how to deal with it / have more resources to deal with it), why is it a better strategy to bring infections in other people forward to the beginning (where the risks are greatest)?..”

          They don’t plan on testing their theories personally.

          • Yep its an academic debate;
            Just like MMT.. for the proles.. while I sit it out in gold.