Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar drops as RBA talks it down

#747Farewell to the last 747 Qantas flight today….sad times for aviation

by Chris Becker

Sentiment has shifted again to a risk off mood with stocks struggling here in Asia today, reflecting the fall in tech stocks overnight on the NASDAQ. The rout in USD has abated somewhat, although the Aussie dollar, gold and silver remain on a tear, while futures are looking soft going into the overnight trade in Europe and on Wall Street.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was the odd one out, advancing slightly as it goes into the close, up 0.1% to 3324 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is retreating, currently down nearly 0.6% to 25496 points. The daily chart still shows a nice bounce off support and back above the 25000 point barrier, but this is still looking wobbly:

Japanese stocks had similar falls as Yen remained strong, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% lower to 22751  points while the USDJPY pair is still on the ropes here after the co-ordinated selloff in USD letting it sit on weekly support just below the 107 level:

The ASX200 was the standout in the region but for the wrong reason, taking back half of its previous gains to finish 1.3% lower at 6075 points, not helped by a burgeoning Australian dollar that continues to make new highs after breaking through the 71 handle overnight:

Eurostoxx futures are off by more than 0.6% while S&P futures are flat with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing the previous breakout stalling out above the 3230 point level with an inability to get passed ressitance at the 3270 level – watch the NASDAQ first however as momentum reverts:

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Comments

  1. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    A beautiful looking aircraft.
    Clearly the most attractive Commercial airliner ever built.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yeah, well, Jane was never the strong suit in logic. Good sports journo though.

        Australia got the bottom layer of scum – the crims dumb enough or unlucky enough to get caught. All the really good crims got to stay in England and plan massively successful heists for a hundred odd years. Yes, there were a couple of superb criminal enterprises re-exported to England after WWII, but that was after years of ‘training’ and sometimes even more failure in Australia.

        • DominicMEMBER

          I got to fly Concorde just before it was decommissioned – cost me an arm and a leg but was worth every cent.

          Never driven a RX-7 before but it always looked the goods.

          • Know IdeaMEMBER

            Never driven an RX7? You have not lived.

            True story: my first RX7 was crashed by my wife … while I was a passenger. That little incident (never forgotten) wrote off three cars and encouraged me to remind any driver to brake once I felt that control was about to be lost. On the plus side, that encouragement has likely saved my skin on a couple of subsequent occasions.

          • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

            I drove a rx7 twice. It broke down on both occasions. The owner of the car was angry at me because he said I was not driving it hard enough. He thrashed it. Apparently it likes being driven that way… true story.

          • @Dom you’re lucky. The Concorde must have been an experience. I think the RX7 analogy makes sense. The Concorde wasn’t commercially viable and neither was the rotary engine, except Mazda made it work.. but emissions killed it and costs killed the Concorde along with that fateful flight.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          The 747 could perform more acrobatic manoeuvres than a Concord,… so more a Datsun 1600 than a bus.
          As for remarkable engineering feats the de Havilland Comet is what kicked it all off.
          Pity about them square windows.

          • You might be right but I knew a couple of very senior Qantas suits who dismissed the 747 as the flying brick (and the company as the red rat). 100% company men though.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I actually watched a Youtube Doco on Concord only recently.
        My second favourite Labor guy after Rex Connor played and instrumental roll in its development Tony Benn.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yeah Yeah Gav,…Like a Lamborghini (or a Datsun 260z) the Concord was an impressive feat of engineering but no where as Cool and practical as a Sandman Panel Van or 747.
        Can you get a 9 foot 6 mall in a Datsun,..mmm?
        No of course not. Your preferred car And Plane are only good for one thing,…fanging.

        Here is that vid I was talking about.
        The Concord never would have happened if it was left to Private enterprise.
        https://youtu.be/sFBvPue70l8

        • Haha, you forget I have a Nissan Stagea Wagon. Which is practical and fast. It’s the car I wish I had when I was in my early 20s and single. For the same reason people loved the Sandman Panel Vans!

          But point taken. 🤣

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      That aircraft made Boeing …..and it was built by Engineers…….not accountants or fcuking MBAs ….
      ….Im a nervous flyer at best and have flown countless miles on that thing but I really don’t like the new
      composite modular cost effective assembled stuff …..I now choose to avoid flying as much as possible as my living doesn’t depend on it and I don’t trust the spreadsheet derived product

      • Australian made aircraft: we use the latest, time-tested VJ-board technology. Next in the pipeline; accelerated particle-board technology.

    • I dunno mate…tastes vary, but for me that title goes to the Lockheed Super Constellation.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        The Taylor Series for ex
        ex = 1 + x + x22! + x33! + x44! + x55! + …

        says that the function: ex
        is equal to the infinite sum of terms: 1 + x + x2/2! + x3/3! + .

        • I did 3 years of University pure maths and calculus. But that was 35 years ago and I’ve had a few whiskies so I’ll have to get back to you on that.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            It’s just saying if no one notices close enough is good enough. To the factorial nominal in the infinite but bounded range.

            Or whatever.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            I actually got an HD in Discrete Maths.

            But I don’t really like to talk about it.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            On a lighter note have shielded the strat and put in the new pots and wiring, now just waiting for the puppies from perth/states.

            Have to say Ebay have their act together with overseas purchases, GST all taken care of, delivery (allegedly) sorted for less than it costs from Guitar Factory (that took a month on back order last time anyway).

            I ordered some from Pitbull Guitars Perth and they were dispatched at 5am the next business day.

  2. Two part question gents – Anyone have any fx predictions if three gorges fails? USD up sure, but China will need raw materials for rebuild right? Impact on AUD?

    For fun, odds on Taiwan declaring independence in aftermath?

  3. @drt15

    Your comment from yesterday re: gold buy/sell. Quote: “You can buy (or any friends/family on your behalf) $5,000 with cash payments which are not traceable. sell it back when the time comes the same way, all untraceable”

    Q: I know of plenty of places to buy gold cash. Any places to sell though on the same conditions? Will they pay you cash or will it be a bank transfer, so traceable?

    • The FallMEMBER

      Isn’t $10M the exact amount it was just revealed that Geoffrey Rush’s defamation suit was going to cost them?

    • DominicMEMBER

      Yes, it’s all BS. The wimmins US soccer team want ‘equal pay’ despite not grasping simple economics, which is that nobody gives a Fck about wimmin’s soccer. Of course if you flip that on its head and tell people that men’s netballers in straya ought to be paid the same as their female counterparts, you’ll have your head bitten off.

  4. anyone heard of Sky Metals? I just bought small stake based on what I saw so far from their exploration and ~$10m cash which means they can drill for while without need to raise funds.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I’ll check it out. Niko you, have way too much time (and money) on your hands 😉

    • I did a quick look at them about a month ago, but I think they were up thousands of % at the time and decided that they needed a super pull back before considering them even semi seriously. That may have now happened. They`re on a watch list but I`d need to know what the underlying resource market is like first

      • Yep. What is his point? That he thinks the US war budget would be brilliant and fine if it was simply 10% less, so he is really gutted this didn’t pass?

        Or that he hasn’t thought it through very much but he likes round numbers and purely symbolic moves that predictably fail, because this lets him virtue-signal at zero cost?

        I’m gonna guess the latter.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Oh, oh, hang on a second. When I suggested just three days ago on this blog that the Dems were a war-mongering bunch, someone tore me a 2nd as$hole. Own up, ya crunts!

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    Just a small town girl
    Living in Western Sydney
    She took the middle class life
    Crying about lower class
    Unprivilege
    Don’t stop believing
    Ermo Plumbing 😁

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Poor old china Dan is really in a spot of bother
    ….his great China belt and road “jobs for Victorians “
    has been derailed by a China bug that requires job keeper for victorians ……How to spin out of this ?

    • Hopefully he cant. For all its problems covid may have done us the biggest favor ever by making the planet confront the china.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Dan’s just digesting the fact that he’s been sucking an infected d!ck for many years and now he has to repent (or do something, I dunno)

    • Mgown was on the same track. Thankfully he seems to have pivoted from it for now at least after he was forced to to dump Huawei from the contract to supply 5G for the new train network because of national security concerns. but it also seems like he has pulled back on his the china bromance since that country infected the world with its virus and stripped the shelves of this country of PPE. Its telling i think the lady china rep who was in WA and the first point of schmoozing by sycophantic millionaires has left.

      • If you want to show the 5 Eyes intelligence community the middle finger buy a Huawei phone. It comes without pre-installed US spyware, is priced better and has superior technology. Of course China will spy on you but if you don’t live there you win. Reversed hand with middle finger extendedRolling on the floor laughing
        https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1282807922058133504?s=20

        NSA spent more than twelve months inside Huawei looking for the smoking gun. Nada.

        • “It comes without pre-installed US spyware, is priced better and has superior technology”
          Had one. It comes pre installed with chinese spyware, and died exactly 2 days after the warranty expired.
          Superior technology my ass.
          China shill.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            I had the Nexus 6p, Huawei and last of the Google Nexus line. It was a real POS, was replaced once under warranty but had faulty noise cancelling firmware that made me unintelligible on phone calls. I’ll never but Huawei or Google handsets again.

            Current phone is a OnePlus, also Chinese brand but the best phone I’ve ever had by a mile and is only starting to get battery degradation so it doesn’t last the whole day comfortable now after 2 years.

            I don’t want to get a Chinese phone for my next one, but not sure what to go for. I don’t like Samsung, maybe LG? Don’t like the Sony phones. Dunno

  7. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Looks like NSW is going for the ‘herd immunity’ route now.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/up-to-500-000-australians-may-have-been-infected-nsw-chief-doctor-20200722-p55ec3

    500k infected already, so “it is just a flu” with a 0.05% mortality rate. If that is the case then it should show up in the positive testing rate.

    Here is a statistical question : NSW today number of test = 18465 with 16 cases positive, so less than 0.1%. It has stayed less than 0.1% since May. Given the observation, what is the confidence interval that 2% of the population is infected in NSW?

    This ‘actual number of infected is 100x more’ idea has been pushed by various political groups in the US to justify a “let it rip” response. It is not science, but the very antithesis of it. In China, serological surveys done in April have shown the actual cases is under-reported by a factor of 5. 100 is a made up number.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      If one State goes herd immunity, all States will go herd immunity (with the possible exceptions of WA & Tas), whether their governments want to or not.

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    Did we just miss the Euro Cup & Olympics and not even fvcking notice? Asking for a budget cut….

    • Successful completion of this course demonstrates the participant has achieved competencies required to appropriately undertake Dogging operations.

      Well .. Im in.

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    I built this critic!
    I built these macro afternoons
    Back when Chris would post
    I built this critic!
    I built this critical page
    By ignoring many
    Arseholes….

  10. migtronixMEMBER

    Gasping to grasp the necessity
    Of governments assorted kabuki plays.
    Sweepers swears up and down
    Its all neoliberal.
    But I say,
    Live by the sword
    Die and FO.

  11. The FNG.MEMBER

    The peak is (nearly) in.
    “That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” researcher Professor Christopher Murray told the BBC. “I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganize societies.”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-population-peak-2064

    • Rowan McKenzie

      Retirement at 62 sure doesn’t make sense. Will need to be raised to 70 pretty much everywhere.

  12. migtronixMEMBER

    I like to dream
    Yes yes right beside
    The bears and sh!t
    Live beside the excrement.

    • Rowan McKenzie

      Ok so Sweden’s Government deficit will worsen by $59b AUD due to COVID
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/529656/sweden-central-government-debt/

      Ours apparently $200b, but adjusted for population (2.5x) then theirs would have worsened by $147.5b

      So $50b not to adopt the Swedish strategy. They have 6000 dead from COVID, but the UK estimates 2/3rds of that would have died this year anyway. So 2,000 excess deaths. x2.5 again to get 5,000 excess deaths in Aus.

      BUT consider the excess 1,500 deaths from Lockdown reported in the other article, so only 3,500 deaths ‘saved’ due to our lockdown. $50,000,000,000 / 3500 = $14.2 million per life ‘saved’. By contrast we spent roughly $100,000 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) in our current healthcare system.

      Lets say these excess deaths would have lived another 5 years – they are still people on the sicker end of average anyway. $14.2m / 5 = $2.84m per QALY, or a 28.4x over-reaction on an economic basis. Fighting COVID doesn’t stack up economically using the same methods we accept as a society to fund our current healthcare system.

      There’s about $2.5m households in Victoria. Lets round that up to 4m to include all households in relatively southern latitudes and in suburbia. $50b/4m = $12,500 per household. With that money we could have dismantled all residential chimneys and banned and replaced all petrol-fuelled mowers and blowers. That would save probably 1,500 lives per *year* (not just one season like COVID) of excess deaths due to air pollution, of which Australia has 3,000 per year:

      https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=cce3914b-82a3-433b-97f6-be0642f692f6&subId=658630#:~:text=In%20Australia%2C%20air%20pollution%20from,times%20the%20national%20road%20toll.

      Plus reducing emissions.

      Fighting COVID is a dumb waste of money. The quicker we get herd immunity the quicker we can go back to normal.

  13. We have MMT now so deficits simply do not happen nor matter. Move on, silly discussion.

  14. Also the 747 was a simply awesome plane. Designed by a guy who didn’t get the coveted gig everyone wanted. Go figure, everyone remembers the 747 no-one has a fu%^ing clue what the coveted gig was!