Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker

Outside of Australian stocks, its been a good start to the trading week here in Asia, with the somewhat positive mood from Wall Street on Friday translating into mild gains today. Currencies are relatively quiet, although Euro is shooting out the gates and gold is starting to look bullish going into the European session.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has bounced back sharply after its poor week previously, up over 2% to 3289 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is about to put in a scratch session after being down earlier in the session, currently at 25111 points. The daily chart shows the full retracement of the big breakout above the 25000 point barrier:

Japanese stocks is also slipping into scratch mode with the Nikkei 225 up only 0.1% to be at 22717 points while the USDJPY pair surged on the weekend gap open well above the 107 handle but has retraced half that move to be back at its Friday position near the 107.20 level:

The ASX200 opened higher for only a few minutes and then fell throughout the day to finish 0.5% lower at 6001 points, while the Australian dollar is equally stuck going nowhere at just below the 70 handle:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up only slightly going into tonight’s session that has a few Euro-centric economic events. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 still looks choppy despite the previous tilt higher, with price still gravitating around the 3200 point level:

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Comments

  1. I hate commsec..

    Bidding for EVN at 6.10 and they traded 6.09 but I did not get them?? Bidding for WGX at 2.26 and they traded at 2.24 and I did not get them. Apparently my orders were too large and had to go to traders on the floor. This was during opening in the morning where I would have made anywhere between $7k-$12k inside 10min.
    I hate..

    • You got off lightly. They blocked some of my sell orders during the GFC. Find a broker that does not give a 20-something year old twat the power to ruin your life.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      There were a couple of small trades of that sort of figure just after the open but those numbers disappeared in a flash. If you were a bit further back in the queue, you never would have had a look in, at all. Frustrating but it It happens often. Such is the joy of “at market” or “at limit” orders.

      • just checked all sales for both stocks and you have a point. basically if I was bidding 2c above I think I would have landed most if not all.

      • but.. when I called them and asked why, I was told because traders took longer to vet the orders as mornings are always busy.

    • Ivanka LottMEMBER

      Niko you got out recently but you jumped back in again. I thought you expected this mofo to rollover imminently.

      • i just trade now. idea was to buy today and sell today. the way things developed I would have been out in 10min and still make yuuge profit. even if I paid 2c extra per share.
        I use trailing sells and everything played out perfectly today.. I just did not manage to get a single share.

  2. annualize_this

    If anyone is interested in just what sort of spruik real estate agents are c0ming out with at the moment, here’s today’s missive from RT Edgar bayside.
    “‘Bulletproof’ suburbs are still making strong property price gains, new figures for the June quarter reveal. Hampton and Elwood median house prices rose 47.8% and 31.1% to hit medians of $2.52 million and $2.3 million respectively. Sandringham units jumped a huge 55.5% to $1.1 million in the quarter. Gains exceeded 20% in Highett, Mordialloc and Carrum. Details here.

    With home more important than ever, and Bayside popular with our open spaces, lifestyle and proximity to the water, we have many clients taking this opportunity to upsize, or to relocate here.

    The REIV data shows Melbourne’s overall median house sale price has dipped 3.5% since April, however despite the coronavirus-driven downturn, prices are still 6.1% higher than they were 12 months ago with our market labelled ‘resilient’.

    1245 sales were recorded across Victoria, up from the week before. Buyers have adjusted quickly to the return to private appointments instead of open homes with good numbers over the weekend, including 18 groups through a new listing in Murrumbeena. We have strong relationships and communication methods with serious buyers keen to find a property regardless of current conditions.”

    I know I shouldn’t be, but I’m constantly amazed a what they manage to spin. Absolutely shameless.

    • annualize_this

      I just looked to see how many house sales there were in Hampton in the June qtr according to REA. There were 4, or 7 if townhouses are included.
      A 6mil sale pushes the median up quite a bit when the number of transactions are that low.

  3. Chris, love the anti-vax mirror pic. Scorchingly sarcastic comment though. Has someone actually put that up in real life, or is it a Photoshop feature?

    • AFAIK its real.
      there’s been plenty of inyourface (sic) pro-mask messages put up at businesses. The fact that we need to even have a sign like this speaks volumes…

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    This bloke complains of being Gaslighted by Dan Andrews but not the Murdoch press that has actually Gaslighted him and got him feeling It’s all Labor’s fault !!!
    The Libs on the other hand,…top fking Job!

    Give DAN ANDREWS a break ya bunch of Murdoch/IPA Bullies!

    https://youtu.be/8OcGvTkAAfc

    • I’d agree with you but for the fact every other state managed their quarantine without letting the virus loose.
      NSW used the police and ADF.
      Victoria used Dodgy Bros security who no doubt used some labour hire shell to cut corners and awards.
      Friendly (to the ALP) Jeordies not looking terribly edgy or amusing with that clip.
      The party of the workers strikes again.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I’m genuinely hoping this becomes a really, really big thing in the hope that the sheer worthlessness of labour hire firms is exposed.

      • They used

        Wilson Security
        United Risk Management
        MSS security,
        Unified Security Group,
        Ultimate Protection Services,
        Elite Protection Services,
        Australian Protection Group,
        Security Hub

        All of those can be found in use around Australia in Commonwealth buildings, State buildings, Defence facilities, Courts, public service functions etc by governments of either branding persuasion.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      The Murdoch media slammed Andrews for not reopening for mothers day. Same for not reopening schools. He told them that Victoria was different as it had more community transmission. Journalism didn’t listen.
      Then you have a bunch of people who make a *choice* to do the wrong thing and not stay in quarantine, and a private sector stuff up, followed by people ignoring social distancing and going to large family gatherings, 10,000 people in one week refusing to be tested etc. – but no the libertarians say you can’t force people to get tested. People have been selfish. Yet supposedly somehow this is all Dan Andrews’ fault.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Isn’t it? He ordered the shutdown and fined people and extended the shutdown and opened less than other states AND STILL FAILED THE ONE JOB HE HAD

        The “government can do everything but only if its unaccountable” crowd don’t sound very smart.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          So he should have personally guarded the quarantine hotels all by himself?
          they preach all about personal responsibility. Yet not staying in quarantine is fine, not socially distancing is fine, not getting tested is fine,.. its all the governments fault.. even when we spend every waking minute demonizing the “nanny state” and preaching of the self regulating magic of individuals acting in their own self interest.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          What on earth makes you think it was libertarians that let the virus out? We know for a fact it was someone who was tested because that’s how they found out via the genomic tracing. What you’re blathering on about is utterly unsubstantiated and I promise you all he had to do was go for a walk past the Stamford! So yes I do think he should have managed at least that if he had any sense of the way the Italian lineage spread

  5. Can't Socially Distance

    That isn’t alcohol talking.

    Drugs have been getting harder to get since March, so a lot of druggies are in a bad place.

    They always blame everything and everyone else for their problems as that reddit post shows.

  6. Good JobKeeper comments:
    “Money that is just floating around in businesses that aren’t really providing an effective output to the economy is problematic,
    “I do anticipate that there will be really substantial numbers of insolvent enterprises because revenues are not coming back – they would not come back immediately and they may not come back ever in a whole range of sectors.”

    https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/australia-faces-avalanche-of-business-failures-in-september-fiscal-cliff-2233711

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      That said, it’s not everyday that you hear someone self-diagnose encephalitis while simultaneously opening their Presidential campaign. So yes… f’d up… and hilarious … simultaneously.

      It would be funny if it wasn’t for the fact he may be one very big reason why Biden won’t get enough votes to win. That said, the US is probably better off with Trump than Biden. So yes… f’d up… and hilarious … simultaneously.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        It’s not going to be Biden,… it can’t be!

        https://youtu.be/JRM7zQk8xJg

        He is Going to be pulled in the 12th hour and it’ll be a combined Hillary and Michelle Obama ticket IMHO
        The Yanks fken love Royalty. Just look at the Popularity of the Kardashians!
        Closest think they got to Blue bloods.
        Other than the Clintons and Obamas of course.

        Are there any suitable Kennedys left alive ?

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          He is Going to be pulled in the 12th hour and it’ll be a combined Hillary and Michelle Obama ticket IMHO

          That would be a catastrophically bad idea unless – *maybe* – he actually dies (or is incapacitated and “forced” to withdraw).

          Even having Hillary or Obama as Biden’s running mate would be less foolish.

  7. Corelogic dailies at zero across the board today. I fully expect this means they are adjusting / recalibrating their World’s Best Algorithm ™ so that it shows more … ahem, helpful results.

    Maybe reversing the minus and plus so down means up…

    Tomorrow will tell!

  8. What makes me sad to read is that a grown ass man chooses to live in Dubbo, chooses to bin dive for 10c cans and chooses to ignore the reality of a global pandemic. Pull ya head in

  9. It’s like that guy is channeling me. It has nothing to do with lab/lib. Both Scummo and Dictator Dan (the man with no plan, again) have buggered this up royally. I too feel like I’m being gaslit by these pricks and don’t understand why so many people are cheering them on with their “temporary” measures that are timed incorrectly (late) and have no exit strategy. ThiS is not how a democracy is supposed to work, I can’t believe this is Australia. And to boot I see on the news tonight we will be letting international students back in to bring the virus and compete with locals for jobs, while I can’t leave my home, the metro area, the state or the country.

    • You’re angry because you have been gaslighted by both sides of government for years and they will do anything to make sure that they are not accountable when the music stops. It’s insatiable institutional greed and stupidity that hurts us and our children. It’s viscerally unpopular and you can still do nothing about it. This is the story of the last decade and a half in the western world. It is the reason for a conga line of one term PMs, Brexit and Trump. Yet nobody ever does anything about it.

  10. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8539683/Federal-judges-son-shot-dead-husband-wounded-attack-man-dressed-FedEx-driver.html

    Assassin dressed as UPS driver murders son and husband of judge assigned to Epstein-Deutsche bank AML lawsuit in their home

    Nothing to see here folks

    Amusing to see the New Jersey mayor try to make it about gun control

    “ New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said the shooting should serve as a reminder that gun violence is still a crisis and “that our work to make every community safer isn’t done.”

    Surprised they didn’t announce the victim had Covid also

  11. JobKeeper and JobSeeker to extend into October, but at reduced rates
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-updates-live-masks-to-be-compulsory-in-victoria-nsw-second-cluster-grows-death-toll-stands-at-122-20200720-p55diw.html

    The JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments will continue after October but will be reduced from their current rates.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will announce the new figures in Canberra on Tuesday, ahead of a major financial update to be released on Thursday.

    A government source confirmed the $1500 a fortnight JobKeeper payment will be extended beyond September, but eligibility will be changed to target it to companies and workers that need it.

    JobKeeper will also have two tiers to more closely reflect the income of people who work fewer hours.

    The $550 a fortnight JobSeeker supplement, which is paid on top of the dole and other payments, will also be extended and lowered.

    • innocent bystander

      parts of Perth are running hot.
      covid free part of the world.
      some ppl have been hit hard business wise and so some desirable properties coming to market that would normally be more tightly held. quickly bought.
      markets within markets.

      • Brisvegas is pretty solid too — but we’ve had mass immigration from down south to keep it all ticking along

  12. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So, what target is Root going to set the West Indies…and his own bowlers?

    Will he go all out to level the series?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Sydney will be in shut down in a few weeks time surely they aren’t going to be allowed in under shut down circumstances.

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      “Only 28 of the state’s 275 new COVID-19 infections have been linked to known outbreaks – which means the sources of 247 cases today – and now 759 cases since July 1 overall – have not been identified.”

      They can open the borders if the virus isn’t contained. We’ve got it now, so what’s the big deal?
      They definitely wouldn’t do this on purpose. How high are the stakes?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Sydney airport only allows 350 person to arrive a day, and Melbourne is currently no allowing anyone at all. How will the students get here? Swim?

      • Hasn’t stopped universities from getting special exemptions in the past. One charter flight at a time.

    • Not sure why theyd come here to do an online course, pay some of the most expensive living costs in the world, with no work to offset the costs. Wealthy people have better options, education wise.

    • Can’t really see them being that interested if they aren’t allowed to return – online isn’t worth it as they won’t be able to work and send money home. That knocks out the Indian students, where the COVID numbers are still sky high and the Chinese ones will be pressured by the CCP not to come. Think the UK will be more attractive to both groups.

  13. drsmithyMEMBER

    I’ve decided to wear a mask when it’s mandatory on Thursday (it’s not like I have a choice, right?) – a Guy Fawkes/V for Vendetta/Anonymous mask. I’ll be writing” Resist Fascism” on it.

    That’s some through-the-looking-glass 5-dimensional irony, right there.