Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Outside of Australian stocks, its been a good start to the trading week here in Asia, with the somewhat positive mood from Wall Street on Friday translating into mild gains today. Currencies are relatively quiet, although Euro is shooting out the gates and gold is starting to look bullish going into the European session.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has bounced back sharply after its poor week previously, up over 2% to 3289 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is about to put in a scratch session after being down earlier in the session, currently at 25111 points. The daily chart shows the full retracement of the big breakout above the 25000 point barrier:

Japanese stocks is also slipping into scratch mode with the Nikkei 225 up only 0.1% to be at 22717 points while the USDJPY pair surged on the weekend gap open well above the 107 handle but has retraced half that move to be back at its Friday position near the 107.20 level:

The ASX200 opened higher for only a few minutes and then fell throughout the day to finish 0.5% lower at 6001 points, while the Australian dollar is equally stuck going nowhere at just below the 70 handle:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up only slightly going into tonight’s session that has a few Euro-centric economic events. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 still looks choppy despite the previous tilt higher, with price still gravitating around the 3200 point level:

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Comments

  1. I hate commsec..

    Bidding for EVN at 6.10 and they traded 6.09 but I did not get them?? Bidding for WGX at 2.26 and they traded at 2.24 and I did not get them. Apparently my orders were too large and had to go to traders on the floor. This was during opening in the morning where I would have made anywhere between $7k-$12k inside 10min.
    I hate..

  2. annualize_this

    If anyone is interested in just what sort of spruik real estate agents are c0ming out with at the moment, here’s today’s missive from RT Edgar bayside.
    “‘Bulletproof’ suburbs are still making strong property price gains, new figures for the June quarter reveal. Hampton and Elwood median house prices rose 47.8% and 31.1% to hit medians of $2.52 million and $2.3 million respectively. Sandringham units jumped a huge 55.5% to $1.1 million in the quarter. Gains exceeded 20% in Highett, Mordialloc and Carrum. Details here.

    With home more important than ever, and Bayside popular with our open spaces, lifestyle and proximity to the water, we have many clients taking this opportunity to upsize, or to relocate here.

    The REIV data shows Melbourne’s overall median house sale price has dipped 3.5% since April, however despite the coronavirus-driven downturn, prices are still 6.1% higher than they were 12 months ago with our market labelled ‘resilient’.

    1245 sales were recorded across Victoria, up from the week before. Buyers have adjusted quickly to the return to private appointments instead of open homes with good numbers over the weekend, including 18 groups through a new listing in Murrumbeena. We have strong relationships and communication methods with serious buyers keen to find a property regardless of current conditions.”

    I know I shouldn’t be, but I’m constantly amazed a what they manage to spin. Absolutely shameless.

    • annualize_this

      I just looked to see how many house sales there were in Hampton in the June qtr according to REA. There were 4, or 7 if townhouses are included.
      A 6mil sale pushes the median up quite a bit when the number of transactions are that low.

  3. Chris, love the anti-vax mirror pic. Scorchingly sarcastic comment though. Has someone actually put that up in real life, or is it a Photoshop feature?

  4. Good JobKeeper comments:
    “Money that is just floating around in businesses that aren’t really providing an effective output to the economy is problematic,
    “I do anticipate that there will be really substantial numbers of insolvent enterprises because revenues are not coming back – they would not come back immediately and they may not come back ever in a whole range of sectors.”

    https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/australia-faces-avalanche-of-business-failures-in-september-fiscal-cliff-2233711

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      That said, it’s not everyday that you hear someone self-diagnose encephalitis while simultaneously opening their Presidential campaign. So yes… f’d up… and hilarious … simultaneously.

      It would be funny if it wasn’t for the fact he may be one very big reason why Biden won’t get enough votes to win. That said, the US is probably better off with Trump than Biden. So yes… f’d up… and hilarious … simultaneously.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        It’s not going to be Biden,… it can’t be!

        https://youtu.be/JRM7zQk8xJg

        He is Going to be pulled in the 12th hour and it’ll be a combined Hillary and Michelle Obama ticket IMHO
        The Yanks fken love Royalty. Just look at the Popularity of the Kardashians!
        Closest think they got to Blue bloods.
        Other than the Clintons and Obamas of course.

        Are there any suitable Kennedys left alive ?

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          He is Going to be pulled in the 12th hour and it’ll be a combined Hillary and Michelle Obama ticket IMHO

          That would be a catastrophically bad idea unless – *maybe* – he actually dies (or is incapacitated and “forced” to withdraw).

          Even having Hillary or Obama as Biden’s running mate would be less foolish.

  5. Corelogic dailies at zero across the board today. I fully expect this means they are adjusting / recalibrating their World’s Best Algorithm ™ so that it shows more … ahem, helpful results.

    Maybe reversing the minus and plus so down means up…

    Tomorrow will tell!

  6. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8539683/Federal-judges-son-shot-dead-husband-wounded-attack-man-dressed-FedEx-driver.html

    Assassin dressed as UPS driver murders son and husband of judge assigned to Epstein-Deutsche bank AML lawsuit in their home

    Nothing to see here folks

    Amusing to see the New Jersey mayor try to make it about gun control

    “ New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said the shooting should serve as a reminder that gun violence is still a crisis and “that our work to make every community safer isn’t done.”

    Surprised they didn’t announce the victim had Covid also

  7. GunnamattaMEMBER

    JobKeeper and JobSeeker to extend into October, but at reduced rates
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-updates-live-masks-to-be-compulsory-in-victoria-nsw-second-cluster-grows-death-toll-stands-at-122-20200720-p55diw.html

    The JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments will continue after October but will be reduced from their current rates.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will announce the new figures in Canberra on Tuesday, ahead of a major financial update to be released on Thursday.

    A government source confirmed the $1500 a fortnight JobKeeper payment will be extended beyond September, but eligibility will be changed to target it to companies and workers that need it.

    JobKeeper will also have two tiers to more closely reflect the income of people who work fewer hours.

    The $550 a fortnight JobSeeker supplement, which is paid on top of the dole and other payments, will also be extended and lowered.

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      “Only 28 of the state’s 275 new COVID-19 infections have been linked to known outbreaks – which means the sources of 247 cases today – and now 759 cases since July 1 overall – have not been identified.”

      They can open the borders if the virus isn’t contained. We’ve got it now, so what’s the big deal?
      They definitely wouldn’t do this on purpose. How high are the stakes?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Sydney airport only allows 350 person to arrive a day, and Melbourne is currently no allowing anyone at all. How will the students get here? Swim?

    • Not sure why theyd come here to do an online course, pay some of the most expensive living costs in the world, with no work to offset the costs. Wealthy people have better options, education wise.

    • Can’t really see them being that interested if they aren’t allowed to return – online isn’t worth it as they won’t be able to work and send money home. That knocks out the Indian students, where the COVID numbers are still sky high and the Chinese ones will be pressured by the CCP not to come. Think the UK will be more attractive to both groups.

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