Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar drops as RBA talks it down

by Chris Becker

A soft mood in Asia with stock markets in retreat mode and erasing the start of week gains. The USD is moving higher against the majors, except gold which is still strong, and Yen starting to move higher as safe haven buying accelerates as coronavirus cases continue to spike across the world.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite felt the heat the most, closing 4.5% lower to 3201 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index finished 1.7% lower to 25045 points. The daily chart has fully retraces all of the previous breakout with momentum readings continuing to move to a swing short position as support at 25000 points comes under stronger pressure:

Japanese stocks slipped after initially being higher as active coronavirus cases rocket in Tokyo, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.7% to close at 22270 points. The USDJPY pair is largely unchanged, falling slightly below the 107 handle as Yen buying accelerates, as it looks set to flip over to its recent weekly lows going into the City open:

The ASX200 gapped higher at the open again and looked set for another move higher but was pushed lower by the latest jobs figure print, eventually falling 0.7% to be just above 6000 points. The Australian dollar has retraced most of its overnight move, ducking back below the 70 handle in line with other risk assets:

Eurostoxx futures are down 1% while S&P futures are flat with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still looking choppy despite the previous tilt higher, with price looking to gravitate around the 3200 point level:

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  1. Doesn’t look like the vaccine hopium boost lasted all that long then.

    Current market volatility is astounding. Wild daily swings of a percent or more almost every day. Today’s peak to trough was around 1.5%.

    The ultimate options are boom up or crash down. My money is still on the latter.

    • Bunch of people in enforced idleness sitting in a plague city waiting for the blow to fall…….they will bet on flies crawling up a wall…….history rhyming.

  2. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Withdrew 6k from bank, got the 3rd degree on why, told her was buying food, gee that’s a lot of food.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Couple of separate points:
      – if your bank thinks a 6k withdrawl that was a one off is worthy of question, your bank has problems.
      – you should have said to her that the bank didn’t ask where it came from when you stuck it in there, so you’re not telling anyone where it’s going when you pull it out. 😀

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I worked with a Sparky at Cloudbreak, almost a decade ago now, who worked for himself before working FIFO.
      Whatever “Cash” money he had left over every week or 2 he would take to Perth mint and buy small gold coins. 1/10th of an ounce I think he said. Reckons he usually spent under a grand each time he went in.
      Says he did this for over a year before one day the person on the counter said that he has been identified as a regular purchaser and would need to provide his details.
      OK he said, turned around and walked out making no purchase that time nor any time since.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I did that last night at Betty’s Burgers. Not the first time. Your mate has class.

        PS it was over an amount totalling $2.
        PPS don’t buy the thick-cut fries.

      • Then some will take umbrage at corps engaging in bad transactions … you cant have it both ways …

        Always love seeing the little [tm] people provide cover for the real BSDs … kudos …

    • Tell her you’re buying a bad dragon dildo, but if there’s a saving if she wants to go in on a group deal.

  3. The lemmings in that doco film were herded over the cliff, by the crew….just saying

  4. I watched American Psycho for the first time. I was thinking the movie was fiction right up until the scene where the RE agent avoids property devaluation by clearing out all the dead bodies instead of notifying police.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I notice both You and Patrick Bateman like to adorn yourselves with with the finest designer clothing.
        Do you feel you have anything else in common with the main protagonists Skip?

        • I wear trade gear for the most part, but when I do step out, I wear quality gear that out lasts fashion cycles. Funny bumping into clients out and about and watching the double take or slow process of recognition. Better yet is how people function on that level to start with, maybe on weekend links I’ll spin a yard on that topic.

          For the here and now … I’ll be sporting retro 80s Revo sunglasses to work, because of function and not fashion IMO.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      lol 😆 so true
      Brett Easton Ellis wrote the best books of the 80’s 90’s

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            You would be surprised how many (disproportionately) on this site have admitted to having it, and because of the proportion, make you wonder how many haven’t admitted to it. Also the extreme hatred for boomers by some, may be an indication of some form of
            undiagnosed depression

        • Big Python, old SNL, and MST3K fan with a big chunk of graveyard humor from my military days, that aside, the point was the emotion behind the admiration for a movie and the question asked.

          • I am GrootMEMBER

            I’m inclined to agree Skip. I get the irony and the gallows humour aspect, but desensitisation is rife these days. And the book that movie was based on is simply feral.

          • It reminds me of Hudson’s observations on his book ‘Super Imperialism’ being used as a how too road map rather than the cautionary tale it was meant to be …. or on a Tuesday night cheap movie, next to the University of Colorado, one night I witnessed a theater of Uni students cheering on the violence of Pulp Fiction.

            Then again the well heeled were know to set up upon a hill to drink and eat whilst watching a town get sacked back in the day … ummm …

  5. GunnamattaMEMBER

    The below is a comment on the Guardian post, which some may find handy/useful…..

    My opinion, as an ex-journalist, is that the first thing any sentient reader must do is let go of the notion that you can go to one source for the ‘core’ of whatever your narrative is.

    From there I would suggest doing pretty much what I do whenever I do the weekend links/ sunday supplement.

    First you want – Awareness of ‘Breaking News’ and whatever is actually happening around the world

    Then you want – analysis and opinion assembling the facts you can get from the ‘breaking news’ into some sort of narrative

    What you will invariably find is that when it comes to immediacy and news different outlets tend to have different niches and geographic locals they are OK at. Some of these will also offer opinion (providing the news and opinion together was the model of days gone by – because people would pay a premium for it)

    I scout (daily) maybe 15-20 different sites.

    For the news close to when it unfolds I would suggest trying……

    ABC – will go you a close to real time awareness of whatever events are happening on a day to day basis with an Australian focus
    BBC – ditto, but on a global basis with a European UK focus
    Reuters – ditto but on a global basis. When it comes to straight reportage of what is unfolding the big R (which provides the basis of much written out there on other outlets) is well worth a look.
    AP (Associated Press)– ditto but on a global basis. When it comes to straight reportage of what is unfolding the big AP (which provides the basis of much written out there on other outlets) is well worth a look.
    Bloomberg – ditto but focuses on a midlly right wing business economics line. People can like that or not, but their data and verification inside the editorial chain is first class. When it comes to business and financial developments they are usually the benchmark.

    All the above can be accessed free (with a little effort in the case of Bloomberg. Simply set up a browser to delete all cookies every time you close the browser. That way you will always get the first 1 or 2 pieces for free). They are all remnants of old ‘news wire’ services, except the ABC which has always had a mandate to get as much from as many parts of Australia as possible. The rest can be clicked on free.

    The other thing some people may want to do for a sense of breaking news is to structure a twitter feed, so that all the above plus whatever other news sources you like roll down (dont tell friends etc because you dont want your sisters creme brulee interrupting your news flow) .

    So that should keep you abreast of whatever is actually happening in the world. The above tend to get their facts right
    and will generally have someone near where the events are taking place, and their straight reportage will usually be OK (if not perfect).

    After you think you have a sense of what is actually happening in the world you want analysis and opinion.

    First of all you need to tell yourself the following ‘In Australia, Anybody reading anything connected with Uncle Rupert which is not sport or titillation is probably a moron with an attention span of less than 2 sentences, or someone with a vested interest in cultivating lots of morons to be at the one space’

    I’ve had News journalists agree with this.

    That means – in Australia – News, the Australian, Sky, and the range of State mastheads which chunder forth stinking masses of Uncle Rupert’s bilge.

    From there….

    When looking for opinion I tend to value a degree of diversity, but only if it can encompass factual veracity – like real data – and it makes some attempt to be ‘balanced’ (whatever that is, but capable of absorbing data and have a balance in terms of comment on the implications inside the piece), and or it has some form of eminent, expert or respected opinion (anything lobbing Innes Willox for a quote is out). No if the piece has only one opinion, then you need to ask yourself (no matter who’s the one opinion is) where is this person coming from, and what are they leaving out? (or who will get creamed in order to adopt their proposal)

    So depending on the issue/proposal/observation – and bearing in mind I tend to be most interested in business/economics – I would consider (in no particular order)

    Deutsche Welle ( It has a reasonable English language component and tends to run a European focused output, but often has good social, environmental and economic commentary. It has a solid editorial process, and checks data.

    VoxEU ( Its actually the CEPR’s policy unit it will have a range of comments and blogs (academics and professional economists) ranging from intellectual discussions of economic concepts to data backed analysis of various sectors and economies. Europe centred but well worth a look and often taking a look globally

    SCMP (South China Morning Post) It has been taken over by the pro Beijing crowd but despite this often has informative commentary on China, Asia and global economy

    Pearls and Irritations An often interesting grab bag of comments on Australian issues and policy. Generally from the old white male left end of the spectrum, but worth a read nonetheless.

    The Guardian Often has interesting and perceptive commentary on socio economic issues, but these are invariably drowned by a backdrop of theme of ‘Old white men are responsible for all of the worlds problems so therefor all men are the cause of the worlds problems’ and a plethora of pieces about men not doing household cleaning, men being afflicted by ‘toxic masculinity’, and how the world would be better run by [in no particular order] women, migrants, people of colour, people of disability, people of LGBT orientation, etc – which may all be true, but there is never anything about how the behaviours of any of the aforementioned may, once in power, start to resemble those of the old white males they would in a better world be replaced by. Ordinary everyday men who support families working long hours, or men working within ‘management’ structures run by old white females may feel the outlet is writing from lala land, but can find perceptive pieces looking at socio economic and class war issues.

    Project-Syndicate Funded by and runs the line of the Davos ‘we are great people working for the future of humanity, but just happen to be billionaires’ set. But it generally has opinions by eminent persons and is worth a look on that basis alone.

    Ninefax, SMH, The Age, The entire serving is a long long way from the rivers of gold days and invariably doesn’t mention house prices, immigration (there may be too much), where have the wage rises gone, or why is our economy missing a globally exposed sector, but it does retain some good business economic journos on the books – Bartholomuesz, Gitto when he has had enough coffee, Liz Knight and some others. Be careful if reading Jess Irvine with a full mouth. It will fill in on the issues of the day in Australia’s largest cities, and is largely the touchstone for the daily Australian political cycle.

    I need to cook something for my kid, I will be back in half an hour or so to add to this…

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “Australia, Anybody reading anything connected with Uncle Rupert which is not sport or titillation is probably a moron “

      Nah mate !…….we can’t live in a land of morons …
      …..I’d better turn off my Telly as well cos it’s saying the same thing ……( mind you to be fair ….I’ve lived in a lot of other lands ….and they seem to be populated by morons too ….)

    • You should read some Breitbart to find out what the other half of the USA thinks. Interesting perspective on recent events.

    • Do you think SCMP has been taken over by pro-Beijing crowd, or do you think they just see the writing on the wall and are now scared sh!tless?

    • Every single source you listed, including the news-wire services, are pro-globalist, pro-multiculti, pro-White genocide, CIA-payroll level material.
      You have to go WAY wider to balance their perspectives, to the hardest of hard right blogs, news-services, and social media.
      Centre-left globalist, centre-right globalist sources leaves heads full of nonsense.. and worse, people with heads full of nonsenses that think they are informed.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Jebus Christ that RE agent Geoff Cayzer is fckn Reusa in 20 years 😆😆😁😁😂

    • Domain reports the Middle Park apartment block was snapped up by a savvy buyer for an undisclosed sum.

      “We think it will rent for a fortune once Covid-19 is over, which should only last a couple more months, then everything is going to go back to normal and we would never have got it for such a great discount before COVID-19.

      We had to give up our lease on the Tesla Model S we got last year, so finance is definitely tighter, but in 12 months the capital gain will more than pay for our next car anyway, so it’s a small price to pay in the short term”.

      Chief economist are saying Australian property is likely to dip 3% before COVID-19 is eradicated, but expect a full v shape recovery afterwards and millenials waiting on the side lines should jump in whilst the market is depressed as it represents the best buying conditions in the last 20 years.

      • P0pulation Modulator

        Do you and peach ever stop promoting re the games set and matched find something new to waffle on about acept for rusted out Japanese wrecks that will be worth nothing in 10 years no 1 wants to pollution any more

        • Have you considered writing well formed, coherent English sentences with punctuation and stuff?

        • Do I need to add /sarc tags to help out? I bought my rusty junk when it wasn’t worth anything. If it happens to go that way in future no big deal. Maybe I’ll use them with less guilt or worry?

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Why does China Dan Andrews in his open neck shirt , bomber jacket ,trendy glasses ( and I’ll bet ) tight pants and pointy toe shoes ) look like he should be running a coffee shop …….not the state of Victoria ?

      • Perth is a mining camp. Melbourne is a coffee shop. Sydney is a brothel. Brisbane is the local wetland. Adelaide is the housing commission flats. Hobart is a communal vegetable allotment. Canberra is… well fkck knows, no one can remember ever going there. Gold Coast is Reusa’s house.

          • Don’t be so mean to pigs, they’re lovely animals, intelligent, funny and great to have around.I was going to say their only downside was you only get three bucks a kilo at the abattoir, but that’s way more than a pollie is worth and it costs much less to get them to slaughter weight…

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    As superfunds bleed to feed …..the following question germinated in my mind …….

    Presumably the superfunds don’t have these billions of dosh they are paying out sitting around in the folding stuff …… what are they selling to raise it ?…and if they are selling …say …billions of equities …..who is buying? ..and where are the buyers getting the dosh in these lean times ?…this is a serious question …..would appreciate some thoughts from those who understand how these funds operate.

    • Whilst they are big numbers they are not that big as a % of the total Super pot. Most funds have large enough holdings of liquids (Cash, FI, Bonds, etc). The Industry Funds are still getting SGC contributions coming in too. So they are just calling in these Cash/FI holdings and also recycling the SGC conts. Pretty soon however they will need to liquidate equities, real assets, etc to rebalance back to their stated asset allocations but at the moment they can manage it in an orderly way.
      Where it may get interesting is if the gov doubles down on the release.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Thank you …good answer …perhaps like insurance lots of small ins can handle some big outs ……until the outs get too big ….that indeed will be intresting ….
        …….this spring should be like no other ……no RE boom …high unemployment…..the super release done ….dole hider and dole sweetener under stress ……..
        What can SFM come up with next ?………….it will be a pivotal moment indeed …….

    • Mining BoganMEMBER


      Still got Anderson, Wood, Woakes and Curren to pick alongside Broad though.

      • This series appears to be about trying to have the least fragile batting line up. The team that gets a big score from one player, with a good partnership, around that score, has to to be favoured.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          I was really hoping that Holder could make some runs, he’s got a pretty good average from memory.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Australia tried that once. I think. But it was a lifetime ago, and the Japanese were acting up, during the Waugh-years, so I’m not sure my memory is entirely accurate.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yes. But it does get a little tiresome every 2-hours or so when he faces East and kneels down for a couple of minutes.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Also I was nearly right about the Jofra 5 for too! He’s just about my favourite bowler at the moment. And he can bat a bit too.

      • Yeah they might pick Broad this time. How he got omitted for Wood …. in England if Anderson and Broad are fit you play them.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I was going to ask if you also had any photos of Uranus. But after studying those in the link, job done already!