Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Only the property crash can sink Australian dollar now

by Chris Becker

Stocks are retreating across the region in the wake of the sharp reversal on Wall Street overnight, not quite taking back Monday’s gains, but more importantly putting a lot of fear into a massively correlated market that is stretched too thin.  Gold is just hanging on above the $1800USD per ounce level as while Euro is largely unchanged going into tonight’s ZEW survey and US inflation data for June.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down nearly 1.5% to 3394 points while in occupied Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is down 1.5% to 25372 points. The daily chart shows price now retracing all of last week’s breakout with momentum readings swinging to a swing short position as support at 25000 points comes under pressure:

Japanese stocks stumbled after having a good Monday, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.9% to close at 22587 points. The USDJPY pair is unchanged after its swing higher overnight, still remaining just slightly above the 107 handle yet still stuck below former trailing ATR support and the 107 handle at its recent weekly lows going into the City open:

The ASX200 fell at the open and stayed there, moving in lockstep with Wall Street to close 0.6% lower to 5941 points. A similar pattern in the Australian dollar which remains depressed here below the mid 69 level and holding on to key support at the 69 handle proper as momentum goes negative:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down over 1% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 looking very confused, slammed back down to the previous mid range but not able to break support at 3100 points. Watch TSLA tonight and the NASDAQ in general, this is getting very toppy and I can feel something in the air – a Type X error maybe? 😀

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Comments

  1. yeborskyMEMBER

    “… but more importantly putting a lot of ear into a massively correlated market that is stretched too thin.”

    This excess of ear could be our undoing.

    • If I get 1k of every billion the fed issued this crises I would be a millionaire.
      Then I’ll be able to afford a membership and buy TTW expensive wines

  2. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Our market every day does a lot of hard work to…….do EXACTLY what wall street does by %.
    House of cards seems imminent.

  3. At a car dealership with a mate who is buying a car, sales chick says they’ve been real busy and it must be because “….now covid is over…”, WTF is wrong with people?! Pretty sure they’re busy because of people spending all that super, that’s what my mate is doing.

    • Imagine if 30 or 40 percent of the population read Macrobusiness …the level of awareness will be refreshing!

        • Settle down there….that’s crazy talk.

          Somewhat related….is there anybody else who thinks “Imagine” is a stupid song?

          • blacktwin997MEMBER

            Yes, confirming that ‘Imagine’ is indeed rubbish. Kumbayah meets scouser insolence, end result lacks both gravitas and quality.

          • call me ArtieMEMBER

            It’s a boomer song and it’s ideas have served them well. Imagine and it comes true. For old boomers it has always worked. Lucky, lucky [email protected]

            I am a “late” boomer, on the borderline of gen X. Totally different experience. All the opportunities taken, all the niches filled, all the creative agencies started, all the transformative social happenings happened, all the great old houses snapped up at basement prices. Space left only for follow-ons to try to emulate

            It’s been the history of the western world, those who were born first reap the rewards of growth

          • @Artie. Yeah….I’m a 62 vintage bloke, and same same. Everything ladder is pulled up by the people in front of you just as you’re about to trudge up the first rung.

            Wh1te privilege? Male privilege? Hawk. Spit Fckn.

          • P0pulation Modulator

            Get it into you birches if you took the risk. You would benefit golden boy tsk tsk tsk

      • If 30-40% read MB the Economy would crash and they would probably hate themselves.

      • Its like skewed allocation of resources for dubious reasons E.g. its not a scarce commodity, so why the allocation issues for anything that might be a social good … eh – ??????

    • DominicMEMBER

      Struggling to imagine what the world will look like when the Super bonanza is spent and the Jobkeeper disappears … and the mortgage holiday ends. What will that sales chick say then?

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    “85 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 26 in intensive care”

    Dandy. So we all got lockeddown while government let in the plague and that’s ok.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      So Morrison, Dutton, Abbott and all the other blow-hards basically caught Bin Laden, Abu Bakar and Dick Cheney and what do they do, allow the prison guards to run orgies for them….

      • P0pulation Modulator

        How can you say that and think of no consequences
        Phscopath time has no meaning

        • migtronixMEMBER

          What? Terrorism killed what, 4 people? “we decide who comes to Australia and how they do it”

          Theyve let in virus that will kill 10s of 1000s

  5. DingwallMEMBER

    …….. in the Australian dollar which remains depressed here ….

    Or elevated ….. depending on your view.

  6. going for a walk while awaiting for DELL to confirm if I am getting a Laptop or if I have to prove I am innocent because Start Track driver says he/she delivered to laptop to my place.

    anyway chunts.. I made $10 trading today.

  7. second attempt..
    going for a walk while awaiting for DELL to confirm if I am getting a Laptop or if I have to prove I am innocent because Start Track driver says he/she delivered to laptop to my place.

    anyway.. I made $10 trading today.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Nice find Freddy, looks like all highly desirable dog boxes people from other countries used to buy. Ahhhh I was having a really bad day till now, thanks 🙏

    • on more serious note, this might be the banks starting to force sales. remember ANZ boss saying “we can’t save everyone” or something along those lines.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Wasn’t just ANZ either. CBA hinted they feel the same way. That means the other will follow shortly (or covertly already are). The big four seem to have a ‘Bad PR roster”. It was probably ANZ’s turn this month to take the heat.

      • The banks will start on property developers, everyone hates them, they make banks look good.

    • elasticMEMBER

      Which reminds me, I wonder how Harry T’s plan to hold onto his high rise apartments that he couldn’t sell and just rent them out is going. I hope he’s taking a bath.

      • and for first time in long time I wonder how Nathan is doing? Last time I read something about him here someone said Nathan was buying.

      • Harry wants the govt to use his spare apartments for quarantine. He was banging on about this in the press the other day. D. Reaming.

      • Personally, I hope he dies of cancer. Slowly. Agonisingly. I don’t say that of many people, but Harry’s on the list.

    • Building size:
      16 m²
      23 m²
      22 m²
      11 m²
      15 m²
      11 m²
      15 m²
      12 m²
      14 m²
      12 m²
      16 m²
      12 m²
      What the h… is going on?

  8. Scab Quarantine Security

    The next round of JobKeeper should have mutual obligation activities similar to the dole so we’re incentivising employers to get back on their own two feet rather than surviving off government welfare.

    I’d like to see business owners out there on Saturdays and Sundays picking up rubbish to give back to the hard working taxpayers who are subsidising their businesses. It’s the least you can do if you’re getting tens of thousands of dollars in welfare from the taxpayer every month.

    Fail to do mutual obligation without a reasonable excuse then JobKeeper we send in Robodebt.

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    So that’s what they’ve been up to, thanks for nothing egghead!

    “During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Melbourne University professor will install cameras that watch and respond to the flow of traffic in Carlton, in a bid to improve safety for pedestrians, cyclists and motorists.

    As an unprecedented number of cyclists take to the streets to avoid public transport, seven fish-eye cameras with 360-degree vision and real-time tracking will be installed at intersections along Rathdowne Street between Alexandra and Victoria parades, watching every road user’s move.”

    Its complete BS there’s no unprecedented number of anything other than people walking around the prison yard – but just the stupid app this is all for our good as the cases spike!! FO with this bs Already

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/smart-cameras-to-track-covid-19-travel-patterns-20200714-p55bu5.html

    • Leftists implementing a social credit system. Who’d have thunked?

      Who did you vote for again?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        I didn’t vote for anyone and you’ll find it’s a very rightist firm supplying the equipment.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      This could be curtailed if we had property rights to our own likeness and data. Want to use an individual’s image for your AI, pay them. Want to track a persons browsing habits, pay them.

      It’s a way of avoiding a digital panopticon.

      For example, the gov could pay the population to use the Covid app. The government pays a UBI type income to use a Covid tracking App. End of pandemic, App use stops along with payment. (With the assumption that we are selling our data that we own to the government for a specific purpose.)

  10. Pfh007.MEMBER

    MyRBA: The first stop for government payments

    When the Commonwealth parliament passes laws providing that payments will be made to specified members of the public, it is truly bizarre that members of the public are required to enter into a business relationship with a private organisation (i.e. open a bank account) to receive that payment. After all it is not as though we are still living in the horse and buggy era and Canberra is just a fancy sheep station and there is no alternative to using the infrastructure of private banks to distribute payments by the government.

    https://theglass-pyramid.com/2020/07/14/myrba-the-first-stop-for-government-payments/