Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Stocks are jumping out of the gate to start the trading week in a positive mood, following the surge on Wall Street on Friday night which gave a united signal to the risk complex to buy up (almost) everything.  Gold is back above the $1800USD per ounce level as other undollars rebound on the back of a weaker USD and news of a possible vaccine for the coronavirus.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up nearly 2% to 3448 points while in occupied Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is up nearly 1% to 25943 points. The daily chart shows price stabilizing here after almost retracing all of last week’s breakout with momentum readings remaining positive:

Japanese stocks are the best in the region, with the Nikkei 225 up over 2% to close at 22784 points. The USDJPY pair however is not showing any signs of moving, still stuck below former trailing ATR support and the 107 handle at its recent weekly lows going into the City open:

The ASX200 was up over 1% at one stage, retracing in the middle of the session before a surge at the close sees it up 0.9% to 5977 points. A similar pattern in the Australian dollar which rallied back towards its previous highs near the 70 handle but has come back a little in afternoon trade:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up over 1.5% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 looking well bid and ready to breakouut above previous week’s session highs at the 3175 point level – can’t hold this market back!

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    • spoke with DELL today and was informed I will get answer in 48 hours but their view is I am fine as it is easy to prove the signature driver produced is not my own.
      I think Star Track need 48 hour to conclude their investigation even though I will not feel safe until I get confirmation I am getting my laptop.

        • I think Start Track are checking driver’s GPS to see if he got to my place.. I told DELL that means nothing as driver could have parked in front of my house for 3 min and take off again. Does that mean he got out and delivered anything to my place?

          I am surprised that laptops don’t have similar features to mobile phones so vendors can turn them off of reported stolen or lost.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Crossroad hotel cluster now at 21 : and still growing. It does look like someone from Melbourne visited the hotel on the same night everyone got infected. (July 3rd). It is out of control in Victoria back then already.

        • Exactly why my parents have put themselves back into hard lockdown, won’t be long before the Sunshine Coast is full of imported corona. I’ve only just started picking up weekened hospitality work again and now I’m considering saying no just for peace of mind. Yup, I’m a pro-lockdown big scaredy cat as some here would say but the money just isn’t appealing in the balance of things.

          • I’m with you on that one. I went to Aldi today, masked and slathered in sanitiser. First time anyone in the household has been into a supermarket since mid March. I will not be doing that again. I was the only person wearing a mask (though I did see 3 people walking outside wearing them) and while there weren’t an excessive amt of people inside, there were enough that I started to feel uncomfortable. Our LGA still has no recorded cases so I thought given we were out of Aldi products and they don’t do online shopping we had to go now or not at all. I’m kinda regretting it, but finger’s crossed I got away with it. I can safely say that I’m not going into a supermarket until we get a vaccination or a very effective method of treatment. And I’m happy with JS atm

          • I’m with you on the now or not all thing Poppy. Next three days are booked solid with things I need to get done before any potential new lockdown (govt or self imposed) and then I’ll be all set. I may be going overboard but seeing how quickly we went from Melbourne outbreak to Sydney outbreak, I’m not taking any chances.

          • I’m with you guys. The financial implications of getting this thing will burn you long term. I reckon. Not worth getting. Avoid at all costs. I’m happy doing stuff on my cars or around the home. I’ll adjust my spending to suit. Ride it out.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            @popcod
            Keep wearing he mask Pop, someone has to show the way.
            Mrs.B an I went to our Lismore WW’s today and donned disposable gloves and maks as we left he car.
            Not very many other mask wearers, but some one has to model appropriate behaviour.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            @popcod
            Keep wearing he mask Pop, someone has to show the way.
            Mrs.B an I went to our Lismore WW’s today and donned disposable gloves and maks as we left he car.
            Not very many other mask wearers, but some one has to model appropriate behaviour.

          • Cairns. H told work not coming in, got cert from doc, who said he’d seen an influx of Vics. Got some masks at bunns and place was dead, 20% of last weeks shoppers. Fuck the tourists that think ‘laws’ dont apply to them. Not going out again without mask and essentials only. Friends back to elbows, eh, but this time masks. words fail

          • I was talking to my cousin on the GC (just south actually) and she was saying the place was chockers and the cafes were full and no one was social distancing and you sort of just forgot about it because everything seemed so normal. Anyway it was obvious she was full of hope and a bit of delusion that it wouldn’t get to QLD, or even jump the Vic border to NSW. I imagine she is like many. I told her that right now was probably the most dangerous time in SEQ cos it’ll be there, possibly in the largest numbers ever because of Vic people who traveled before lockdown and NSW visitors, and that NSW would be locking down sections of the state within a month and QLD would follow 2 weeks after that most likely. It was unpalatable to her, but she listened to what I said (part of which was why would Oz be different to other countries who had this amt of community transmission and people not wearing masks and social distancing correctly?) and then thanked me for a dose of unpleasant reality. She’ll be taking more care from here on in. Good luck to you and your parents

      • I believe the NSW government was blaming patrons for their moronic behaviour and threatening further measures. I’m looking forward to a series of MB “sack Gladys” articles, because y’know the bucks stops with the state premiers.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Any Premier that doesn’t expect a significant proportion of their constituents to act like morons after commming out of months in lockdown is totally out of touch with their constituency.

    • I’m 2 mins from the pub, drive past every weekend, car park was full that weekend, which meant people would be in close proximity with one another. I haven’t seen out that busy since pre-closure

  1. call me ArtieMEMBER

    Thanks Chris. I’m living thru this market and yet I can’t believe this market. I stand with mouth agape every day

    • you are not alone. I only trade now.. Hold small stakes in REE and GMN too – less than $30k total.

    • You’re not the Lone Ranger mate.

      I’ve never been so wrong on a market call in my life. On the other hand, being right would’ve involved accepting that venality, stupidity and corruption have completely overtaken the world of business.

      Whatever. I’ve foregone profits I don’t need, so I’m not all that bothered. And I still feel like a reckoning is cumming.

    • I’m on the fence about selling out. If lockdown continue Nasdaq will probably continue to do well. But nothing can go on forever.

      • P0pulation Modulator

        This is the End my only friend the end iam afraid reset over 5 years we have to adjust or you know what

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Can you let us all know one trading day before you decide to sell 😆 cos you know houses prices 😁

        • Happy to give the heads up. I’m thinking I could sell half my position and remain half in. So it will only half crash? Haha.

  2. I can’t remember who mentioned HAW and DEG 6-8 weeks ago but I want to say thanks. I finally bought a little DEG today. I’m kinda proud of myself. I did my research, sat on it for a bit while I figured out if I had a spot for it in my portfolio, watched the stock for a while, missed buying just before the latest move higher, put my buy order in weeks ago and didn’t chase the price higher, and I finally got it on a decent dip (I didn’t think the price would come down that far but gold stocks are awesome at volatility, I need to remember this for future reference). It may still go lower but at least I got my initial buy in a bull market the way you’re supposed to do it. I’m getting better at this (oh so slowly but progress is progress)

    • I wrote DEG off when they did capital raise last year as I got really angry with the amount of discount they gave to the “sophisticated” investors. My mistake.. those grades and widths.. dear god.

    • I had DEG and rode it up to $1 and sold when the mark cap hit 1B … time to grab another packet I think, seems strange it got sold down into the 60c range though… any insight into why the sudden 40% drop in the space of a week???

      BGL also worth a look…I think they will produce real gold a lot quicker and painlessly than DEG will, even though it looks set to be underground op

      • BGL will ne all underground and very deep but they have easy access via the existing mine. Very high grades but very narrow veins. I like them but I just don’t want to hold too many right now and I hit my risk limit with REE and GMN.

        • yep good grades and solid MGMT team…. I’m piling into the SPP @ $1 and riding it like its nst mkII…. time will tell!

        • I bought a little in April and have been pleased with their performance so far. The mgt team seems to be doing ok. I think that atm all the producers have had bug increases so more value is in the near term producers, esp with the recent gold price increase and the fact that their gold production isn’t hedged (yet). That’s what annoys me about Aussie producers is that they hedge so much production, it’s a dumb thing to do so much of it in a bull market. Eric Sprott has been going on recently about how he thinks most analysts are mispricing the discount rate for gold in the ground. That may relate mainly to north America but it I just think near term producers (and juniors with a decent find which DEG are) are more interesting atm

          • not all hedges are same though. In RRL case they only need to deliver 10k Oz per quarter so it does not matter much if they hold ~370k Oz Hedged at ~$1800aud per ounce. They ensured longer term price stability in an event price of gold falls sharply.
            But on average Oz gold miners have very silly hedging strategies.

            edit – RRL can increase hedged delivery if they want to but if it’s not in their interests then they stick with 10k Ounces per quarter.

      • No idea why it dropped so much, but CHN did something similar after their Julimar find, so I figured it was kind of normal given the amt of speculation that happens, then people who bought close to the top will have gotten scared and they’ll have sold out at a loss and whatever, you need a cast iron stomach which I have now developed as I started buying gold stocks in 2012, and got stopped out of a few (NST, EVN oh how I weep over that) and rode others down 90% so anyway I just view that 40% drop as a nice entry point

    • ensure you read as widely as you can before you buy more DEG… it might not be all its cracked up to be

      • Thanks for the advice. I only buy in $500 lots now that is available, so it is my way of managing risk. I have quite a few other stocks, mainly junior explorers or near term producers, plus a few non resource stocks, that I’d like to buy another nibble of, before DEG would make it onto that list. I’m viewing DEG as more of a speculative short to medium term thing, though I’ll watch them closely and they may turn into a longer term hold for this cycle.

    • P0pulation Modulator

      Popcord are you like realestate add bot bet for stocks?
      Like simular to gav and peachy

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Because it’s a massive pain and not insignificant cost to security-certify each employee. Anything that can run through their staff and potentially screw up their rostering etc, is to be feared.

  3. My son and his girlfriend went to the casino yesterday for 15-30min.. farrrrk.

    They got tested this morning and he is staying at his girlfriend’s place. I guess they won’t be very popular with her family..

  4. anyone have a link where we can donate food or money to our Victorian contact tracing effort? I think they need #ALittleHelp with their work

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          I wish I was an apos-tro-phe
          Away, away.
          I wish that I was an apos-tro-phe
          And never used incorrectly.
          I wish
          that I
          could always be quoted, singly.
          Away, away
          I wish I was
          when inserted, unnecessarily.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      NSW Health were, up until the Casula hotspot, allocating a fair amount of their resources to help Victoria Health with contact tracing, follow ups etc.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    We are 3/4 of the way through our second 20 litre Drum of Methylated spirits.
    I wasn’t expecting to have trouble getting my hands on a third.
    My wife only stopped spraying all the groceries before placing them on our shelves or in the fridge 3 or 4 weeks ago.
    I’m still spraying my hands and arms before and after every job, the steering wheel, gear stick and door handles as well.
    Even my face gets a spray sometimes (sux when you get the metho in your eyes) but inspire of all that I think my getting infected is unavoidable if 10 or 20% of people in Sydney get this virus.
    Im in 100s of People’s houses every year.

    Long Sigh,…wheeze,…chesty cough.
    😔

    • That’s really tough Ermo, you trying your best to protect yourself and your family and then those idiots just spreading it selfishly.. and on top of them a government insisting on the wrong decision one after the other

    • Seems prudent.

      Just don’t light up a durrie after spraying your face and hands in metho I guess.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Mate, you may want to take up smoking. There are a few bits and bobs in the press suggesting that if you smoke it somehow prevents or minimises the risk of the virus. I dont know how that works, but I did see in the French press they were placing nicotine patches on people

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        The 20 litre drum is a real problem: two much for three but not enough for four.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Metho enemas. Just wait till the orange buffoon starts talking about it. It’ll be all the rage with the Magatards

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I fill 500ml spray bottles with it and it goes quicker than you think.
        Don’t think Id drink it,…without Lots of orange juice.

      • I was told that the aj grunts when in alcohol-free zones filter it through loaves of bread to “purify” it. Cheaper than after-shave I suppose.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        During lockdown I foolishly showed my wife SeveralYouTube clips of people intentionally coughing on supermarket items, elevator buttons etc etc and since then all Purchased items had to be placed on a clean towel out on the outdoor table, sprayed all over with metho, and wiped down before entry into the house.
        I got into trouble several times for breaking this rule.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          How drunk were you…

          Hey sweet-lips, come look at these idiots?
          You tube, again?
          Yeah, but it’s awesome.
          Ok… why are they doing that?
          [Penny starts to drop… backout strategy futiley put into action…]
          Well, you see the whole point is actuallly [cut off]
          How do we kill those germs? Well?

          And here you are.

        • I had a fight with my dad about needing to disinfect all groceries coming into the house. I lost the fight. I might do some more research and present a more compelling case this time that doesn’t involve a bleach solution (it’ll degrade the packaging). I think that now CV is out of the bag properly that now is the time to be disinfecting groceries. I’m with your wife on this one, although you were probably doing it too early in the pandemic.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Hey Poppy… re your cousin on the GC, well done. But for Qld it’s going to be 1-2 months from about Friday just gone. Not 2 weeks.

            Was in Quandong in Jan.
            Was listening to phlegmy coughs that could have won gold in the Olympics on the train to work about a week before SFM wanted everyone to go to the footy (the *first* time). That’s how I knew he was leading people to their deaths. Given I’m in Queensland, the calculus for back then is fairly obvious given today’s outcomes.

            The patience period is so much longer than people think. Not helped by sh1tty hotel policing.

            Stay safe, and keep gloved up. But chill on the groceries (a couple of days in a cupboard will be fine, especially if you do the take-from-behind-the-first-couple-of-rows in the supermarket strategy).

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Isn’t the “bitterant” the same thing as the additives in all “Methos”
            I’m a bit worried about the 5% that isn’t ethanol now.
            Thanks for making me look into this further
            😳

            “Denatured alcohol, also called methylated spirits (in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and the United Kingdom) or wood spirit or denatured rectified spirit, is ethanol that has additives to make it poisonous, bad-tasting, foul-smelling, or nauseating to discourage recreational consumption.”

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denatured_alcohol

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I spray my keys and Phone frequently.

        When I took the kids to stay in a hotel in Canberra on Saturday night I sprayed the hell out of the room with my metho spray bottle.
        The TV and AC remotes got special attention.

          • Thanks for the encouragement! I should have made clear I thought QLD would go into lockdown 2 weeks after NSW. But yeah the patience period is longer than most expect, it certainly caught me out the first time where I thought everything would happen faster than it did. I have to admit I expected the 2nd VIC lockdown but I thought I’d be back at work for longer than 2.5 weeks before being stood down again, so this time I got caught out in reverse. Yeah Dad said to put the groceries aside for 2 days, but that didn’t end up happening, though I think perhaps it should again. I hadn’t thought about getting them from the back of the shelf, but I’ll forgive myself for not having gone grocery shopping for 4 months! There are so many minute adjustments that need to be made. It reminds me of first living in a different country.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          Ermo just take a couple of those fruit and vege bags from the supermarket for the remote and tie a knot in the end.

          Simples!

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Ermo, they are picking up a lot of virus RNA strands in the sewage in Melbourne.

  6. and SAR had to shut one of their mines due to serious accident there. SAR in trading halt.

    • I’d put more credence in whatever the supermarket magazines are writing about William, Kate, Harry and Megan than any of that mumbo-jumbo.

    • BigDuke6MEMBER

      Hmm the temptation of joining the dots from the Katz research article and the MSM cheering on the covid fear would have been too tempting for him. Sad for the education of the sleeping.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Am watching Gillard on Q A. And not coping. With many many aspects of it. And, after years of consideration, I’ve finally concluded the current host is just a bit of a sociopath. Thank diety he works for the ABC now.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Gav. You’d be a lot better off familiarising yourself with a Honda Prelude owner’s manual.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Lol,…I’m pretty sure he knows his Datsun owners manuals off by heart.

        • I actually like reading that manual. Everything is clear and concise and we’ll thought out. Plus the fuel injection system is relatively (compared to today’s cars) basic.

          I wish all car manuals were as good as the Honda Prelude 3rd Gen 1. I can assure you not all of them are well written. You can tell when someone cares about the job they have to do. I’ve read a lot of documentation from programmers I’d love to strangle.

    • What in particular awoke Thor from his slumber to wield the mighty ban hammer? The Gods do truly move in mysterious ways. But, they are such perfect creatures, far beyond our conceptions, and we shall never understand their actions, nor their plans for mere pseudonyms like ourselves. Post every post as if it is your last, and, when reading the ramblings of another shut in, just remind yourself that it seems right to him. Well it did when Alex Jones said it at least. And who’s going to argue with a chap who gets that worked up. He has to be telling the truth. It’s only because he cares so much and wishes to share the true state of the world with us, we who are blinded, we who are meek yet shall rise on the tide of righteousness, and lots of fast editing with scary cut scenes. Thank you internet. You’ve made me feel a lot safer knowing that everyone is out to get me at all the times. Anyhoo. Mum’s about to cut the power to the basement. More oppression of the lady kind. MGTOW. Take the Red Pill.

  7. P0pulation Modulator

    Martin dfa don’t worry we’re got more guns what m0rron war moved past this fossils comprehension bugs and whoever
    Got immune wins

  8. P0pulation Modulator

    Fear and loathing in Melbourne and Sydney around and around we go when we stop nobody knows so around and around we go infinity go fish stewie

  9. China doing more to reduce Australian immigration then our own government – advises caution on travel to Australia.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/travel-with-caution-china-upgrades-advice-for-australia-20200713-p55bq6.html

    China has warned its citizens they could be arbitrarily searched and have their property seized in Australia, escalating its travel advice as tensions rise between the two countries.

    The warning, delivered by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs over Chinese social media site WeChat on Monday night, is the third upgrade in as many months after Beijing warned students and tourists that they could face racial discrimination in Australia during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Australia’s relevant law enforcement authorities arbitrarily search Chinese citizens and seize their items, and these circumstances could cause harm to Chinese citizens in Australia, as well as the safety of their assets,” the ministry said on Monday.

      • Not me. Though I have been mighty annoyed at them since they bought a rooster. This neighbourhood is not rural and roosters should not be allowed here. It’s just plain inconsiderate. They also don’t look after their front yard very well. It reflects poorly on the rest of us. Apart from that Eurasia and I have gotten on about as well as neighbours could hope to.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      They used the word ‘citizen’. How often does our government use the word ‘citizen’?