Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Crushed coal takes gloss off iron ore boom

Another solid session across Asian stock markets today to finish the week, as traders absorbed last nights early NFP print due to the long weekend on US markets. The USD was flat against most of the major currencies, with gold also largely unchanged from its close last night. The lack of volume tonight is likely to result in scratch sessions with Eurostoxx futures flat as a series of service PMI’s for June come up later.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is higher again, up over 1.2% to 3129 points while in occupied Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index lifted around 0.7% to 25293 points, now building above the former weekly highs throughout June and May:

Japanese stocks put in slightly better sessions, despite the fear of rising cases of COVID-19 in the capital, with the Nikkei 225 lifting 0.3% to 22212 points with the USDJPY pair having a very flat session, remaining right on the mid 107 level:

The ASX200 has kept well above the 6000 point barrier, up 1% at the start of the session but eventually finished with a scratch session at 6035 points. The Australian dollar remains stuck too, just above the 69 handle where support has firmed here since the mid-week:

Have a good weekend, I’ll be back next week to fill in for David as he takes a well deserved break. Stay safe!

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Comments

  1. That was an interesting day on the ASX. An almost 70 point surge in the morning which made me think “woohoo, here we go for more deranged wankage”, only to be followed by an almost 90 point collapse in the afternoon. It was only rescued from a negative result by a bit of last minute buying just before the close.

    It doesn’t make me think the market is full of confidence and we’re heading for a zooming breakout. On the other hand, what would I know, the price rises of the last couple of months have been deranged in my view and I’m not the only one to think that. And on the gripping hand, I don’t really care because my money is elsewhere.

  2. Sold ASX:PAA today for some good coin (125% profit) – thanks for the tip from the MBer who suggested the punt a number of weeks ago.

    That being said, I hope I made the right call 😛

    Profit is profit, I guess…except if PAA have the Covid treatment.

    PAA still one to watch.

  3. Paging Jason….?!?! … should savvy MBers be worried about this new ATO focus on “unwitting punters” getting a tax benefit from the super withdrawal scheme…!?

    “ The ATO has made it clear it is saving the harshest penalties for those who use the scheme for “the purpose of obtaining a tax benefit”.

    Voluntary contributions to super can earn a personal tax deduction. By withdrawing super under the scheme and putting it straight back in, unwitting punters could stumble upon a possible tax loophole.”

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/ato-early-super-withdrawal-penalty-ineligible-eofy-2020-7

    • The ATO flagged it that they didn’t like it a while ago. It is a lot of sabre rattling because unless you literally took the $10k out on day 1 and then recontributed it (up to the concessional limits) the next day, it would be hard to show that there was a tax avoidance purpose. You can’t “stumble into” a loophole because there has to be a purpose of tax avoidance. Furthermore, even if you get a deduction, for the contribution your superfund is assessable so you are in effect paying some tax (albeit indirectly). So the ATO’s technical position is pretty weak.

      I think the current hard word from the ATO is really just to scare people about taking out the second round of $10k.

      I got my $10k out as soon as was possible and while I didn’t bother recontributing due to Division 293, I would have been comfortable doing so on 30 June given the 3 month gap (and Joshy told me that Aust was doing OK). I would have then been comfortable withdrawing a further $10k in September if it looked like the recovery wasn’t as good as Joshy keeps telling me.

      As it turns out, given I didn’t recontribute I was comfortable taking the second $10k out this week (as I still qualify for it).

      • I thought you had to have income cut significantly or be unemployed to withdraw it? I qualified because I haven’t been employed the last couple of months.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          A 20% reduction in hours or income is the requirement, if you’re still working.

        • If you’re on social security you’re also eligible. That was what I used as Id been stood down and the ato could see my js payments,

          • I applied for JS in April on the 22nd. They are still looking at my eligibility lol. I called them 2 weeks ago, they said they would expedite it and get back to me. A week later still no updates. Good thing there is no major downturn going on. Lol

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      So to fight cancer you’re meant to strap what, 60 or so mole rats over the affected parts?
      Is that the thrust of the article?

      • Jumping jack flash

        Eating them, i suppose.
        New low-carbon-footprint super food to fight cancer?

  4. I’m telling ya, gardening is where it’s at. Been filling my time in the backyard and life is fckn great. All that sunshine and fresh air and seeing things grow is just bonza.

    Got some cooking work this weekend and the next and it’ll be good to work and be social again but I’m sad on missing out on gardening time. Enjoying life vs being overworked and underpaid is the true disincentive to work, even if dole goes back to normal rates I’d be happy to keep gardening. Amazing the difference a yard makes to life, especially when the rent is the same for my last place without a yard.

          • You know go stuff your assumptions where they belong.

            That you equate gardening to farming is an insult to farmers time immemorial, being pulled up on it and having a ill informed spew is indicative of some strange uniformed perspective. I mean when is the last time wilb had to harvest corn in a rush due to a freak cold snap and due to it have dramas with the augers clogging. Then have a glove get cough clearing it and have his hand pulled in, broken knuckles resulting and remedy was breaking the ice on the cattle trough to stick hand in to numb the pain and then get stuck back into it again because all the time, labour and money involved.

            His whole back yard feed yourself bootstrapping meme is tragic.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well despite all the Cali tech company blather; and the Blade gaming system dodginess, at least we know now that he’s never written any actual code. Ever. So cheers A2 for inspiring that revelation.

          I mean, he might have designed some punch card reading engineering mechanics, but no software capable anything. Or maybe it was one too many Bundies that caused a basic read failure of your comment. Either way, good show old chap.

          • Thanks Wilbs.

            In hindsight it’s unsurprising. He has written so many posts nobody (especially me) has understood, and so many I never bothered to read at all, that it’s probably only fair that he either didn’t read or didn’t understand mine. Or both!

          • Cali tec lmmao … try noob coders without information attempting to reconcile reality and then when it goes boom whistle past that grave yard …

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            So you finally stepped on that landmine. 20 years of helping coding stuff that is only now appearing on the market as common place. Donkey Hardon gouging being the current norm. And if you don’t get that reference, withdraw gracefully. No harm done.

          • As you would say duh … was informed back in the 80s at TRW, but some MBA’s and Ideologues [high] said lets partaay … but you knew that stuff right – ???

            PS you know most of them are the equivalent of old time textile workers in some forlorn country … can’t even reconcile or proof work properly anymore … boss said.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            In the 80s? Fcuk know. How old do you think I am?

            I mean I’ve literally seen someone format MVS system tape 0, by accident. But I’m not necrotic..Yet. Jeez.

    • Yep, I’ve done a lot of garden work in the last couple of months. I spent today at pick-apart in the freezing rain and cold pulling parts off a Honda for a friend too. I prefer to be out and about rather then stuck doing meaningless office admin stuff.

    • and there are some really good youtube channels out there on the topic too! I’m glad you’re happy

        • Sorry. There’s some good urban gardening channels from the US. And i really like self sufficient me which is Aussie
          Here’s the name list:
          Self sufficient me
          Nature’s always right
          Epic gardening
          Huw Richards – grow food organically
          The algos will them throw up all these north American homestead channels, which can be interesting but a but hit and miss from an Aussie gardening perspective. I’d love some more Aussie gardening channels beyond the abc’s gardening Australia if anyone knows them

    • I come from a poor farming family stretching back to the 1840s in this country, and much earlier in England. My dad was a farmer as a young bloke but escaped the peasant life and eventually retired as as an APS EL2. Still, he couldn’t resist The Call, so in my childhood outside school I worked like a fcking beast of burden, digging and raking as peasant children do everywhere with the odd beating to motivate me.. I thought it was ok at the time because I knew no better, but when I think of how my friends lived with weekend sports and music lessons and stuff…..well…The whole “peasant farmer” thing is strong. It’s sort of a generational cycle of abuse, dressed up as a noble cause. Not that I’m bitter or anything.

      In other words, all my life I’ve hated gardening. Give me Tanbark any day.

      • Ouch. Yep. I would agree with a definition that says it is only “gardening” if you enjoy it and want to do it, ie it’s done for pleasure. Otherwise it is either backyard maintenance, punishment, or yep, farming.

    • Know IdeaMEMBER

      Up here in the Snowy Mountains, it is a bit more difficult to grow a broad variety of plants. We have been a bit hit-and-miss with many selections, but the kale has proved a winner. Thankfully the hens have also taken a liking to it. Otherwise I have no idea what I would do with it all.

  5. BRITISH ON INTERNATIONAL VACATION …

    The Brits are back! UK visitors join tourists flooding into Majorca as 144 flights touch down on holiday island and ministers FINALLY prepare to unveil list of quarantine-free countries tomorrow … UK Daily Mail
    … h/t PM …

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8480027/Brits-join-tourists-flooding-Majorca-ahead-ministers-unveiling-exempt-countries-tomorrow.html

    Some of the first British holidaymakers have touched down in Majorca as an increasing number of tourist flights flood into the holiday island after Spain opened its borders a week ago.
    One hundred and forty four flights from abroad landed in Palma airport today, a three-fold increase from yesterday. … read more via hyperlink above …

    MEANTIME … NEW ZEALANDERS STILL AT HOME …

    Public discussion needed on how to safely reopen NZ’s borders – Sir Peter Gluckman … TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/public-discussion-needed-safely-reopen-nzs-borders-sir-peter-gluckman-v1

    • I remember this story getting a bit of air time on MB, more than one apologists saying why shouldnt we train Chinese pilots here and they wouldnt take aussie jobs. Of course !

    • BigDuke6MEMBER

      The rum Corp is strong with that one. Not only do the pigs themselves but also most Australians think the police can do what they want with no consequences

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Post offices. Theres a Brunswick South and a Moreland West post office. Looks like they’ve just named the post offices inside the postcode areas.

      • That’s some good sleuthing. Given how particular people are about telling you which suburb they live in I was surprised I’d never heard of a boast about Brunswick South. Obviously it is better than Brunswick, being closer to the CBD, yet better than the gentrified hell hole that is Carlton North.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        O. M. G. If youse is right, and it sounds good so far, that is one f’ing epic scam you’ve uncovered. Seriously.

        To explain, those PO post codes are there only as geographic markers and/or delivery post codes for Australia Post for PO box type delivery points. NOT for any actual residential addresses. The kind you can actually sell to someone else. So any entity chalking up a sale to such a locality is either mistaken, or …

  6. Cormann set ti quit after calling Morrison a control freak

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/mathias-cormann-set-to-quit-after-calling-scott-morrison-control-freak/news-story/d89dbecfe47f37ecad814f0358680f1d

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, the man who revived Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “economic girly man’’ insult in the Australian political lexicon and privately called Scott Morrison “narcissistic” is set to quit politics sparking a cabinet reshuffle.

    Australia’s longest serving Finance Minister has denied growing speculation he will quit politics for months, but has responded with notable silence to three reports in the last month that he plans to resign.

    But his departure also is set to remind voters of the ongoing leadership fallout within the Coalition over the ascension of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his increasing popularity, dominance and control of the government in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    • I always found it a bit odd that Cormann basicly immigrated to Australia and started working for the Liberal party.
      Another Job Australians wont do apparently ,sigh

    • The fact that 68% of Australians are fvck stupid thinking Morrison’s doing a great job yet TPP sits at 51-49 tells me ScoFlu is looking to get rid relics from the Abbott/Turnbull era, installing fresh two faced drones to lift the TPP. This will crush Labor not that they’re doing a stellar job on their own but this will be the kicker.

    • robert2013MEMBER

      It will be interesting to see what private sector job cormann ends up in.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Whatever it is, presumably it will be something that can make him seriously rich which after all is what every LNPer’s due is, is it not?

    • Birmingham seems the likely replacement as Finance Minister although there is a very small list of people in the Liberal Party who wouldn’t be terrible at the job.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Ah I think you are forgetting one thing.

        The Liberal party is the party of better economic management, so any of them could step up and do the needful.

      • I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a big push to get Hastie in the Cabinet somehow/somewhere.

    • Know IdeaMEMBER

      Sounds like fun. I shall wave to you as you drive by.

      Remember to spends at the local cafes etc. They have been doing it tough with the bushfires and then the virus.