A good peice by the Magellen doyen:
Donald Rumsfeld, the former US Secretary of Defense in the administrations of George W Bush and Gerald Ford, provided a useful framework to evaluate problems when he stated: “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.” It is valuable in deciding on a course of action to have a framework of known knowns and known unknowns about the situation or opportunity. Known unknowns could have material or immaterial consequences if they were to occur and you need to have a reasonable basis to assess their impact and likelihood of occurrence.
At Magellan, our task is to carefully assess facts, known and unknown, and then decide what course of action to take. In some circumstances, we will be optimistic when others are fearful and in other situations the reverse will apply. We are not predisposed to action, nor are we driven by a fear of missing out, nor by a concern that we might underperform a benchmark in the short term. We will do what we assess is the appropriate course of action, after a careful assessment of the facts, and not what other people are doing or saying. We suspect this might have been the failing of the George W Bush administration in deciding to invade Iraq as it appeared predisposed to action.
