Support for the L-NP has increased to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis…
L-NP support is up 1% point from mid-June as a second wave of COVID-19 has hit Victoria, and to a lesser extent New South Wales, over the last few weeks.
Support for the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is strongest in Queensland: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, WA: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, SA: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47% and NSW: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.
However, the ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in both Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%.
Primary Voting Intention
Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 43.5% (up 1% point since mid-June) and is now a full 10% ahead of the ALP on 33.5% (down 1%).
Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.0% while support for One Nation is at 2.5% (down 1.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 1% to 9.5%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 9.5pts to 114.5 in July – dramatically down by 16pts to 104 in Victoria
In contrast to the improvement in political support for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined substantially over the last month, down 9.5pts to 114.5 in mid-July. Government Confidence is now at it’s lowest since mid-March before the COVID-19 pandemic had fully impacted on Australia.
Now just under half, 49% (down 4.5% since mid-June) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 34.5% (up 5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
There are large differences between States when it comes to Government Confidence. Unsurprisingly, Government Confidence has fallen most drastically in Victoria, down 16pts to only 104.
Three States are clustered around the national average with Government Confidence in Queensland at 115 just ahead of New South Wales on 113.5 and Tasmania on 111.
However, Western Australia maintains a very high rating of 136 in July ahead of South Australia on 130.
Check out the plunge in government confidence in Victoria:
It’s hard to believe that Labor still holds a substantial two-party preferred lead in Victoria given the Andrews Government’s monumental COVID-19 quarantine bungle that has shut down Melbourne.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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