China’s Aussie reliance exposed as iron ore volumes boom

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Via UBS, Brazil’s loss is our gain:

Initial data from Marine Traffic shows Australia’s Big 4 (BHP, RIO, FMG and Roy Hill) shipped 82.2Mt in June 2020, +12% m/m (annualised) and up 10% y/y. This represents a run rate of ~1,001Mtpa, the highest run rate since Dec-19 (925Mtpa). JQ 20 shipments were ~228Mt, up 5% y/y. Roy Hill shipped 6.3Mt for the month, +17% m/m
(annualised) and up ~40% y/y, equivalent to a rate of ~77Mtpa. Roy Hill’s JQ 20 run rate was ~62Mtpa, above the JQ 19 rate of ~55Mtpa.

RIO shipped 31.6Mt in June, up 17% m/m (annualised) and +14% y/y. On an annualised basis, JQ 20 shipments were ~384Mtpa. Shipments for the quarter were ~88.1Mt, up ~3% y/y. For H1 20 Rio shipped 161Mt, up 4.2% y/y. RIO is guiding to 324-334Mt. If Rio were to run at a 340Mtpa rate for the remainder of 2020, shipments would be ~332Mt.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.