China’s Aussie reliance exposed as iron ore volumes boom

Via UBS, Brazil’s loss is our gain:

Initial data from Marine Traffic shows Australia’s Big 4 (BHP, RIO, FMG and Roy Hill) shipped 82.2Mt in June 2020, +12% m/m (annualised) and up 10% y/y. This represents a run rate of ~1,001Mtpa, the highest run rate since Dec-19 (925Mtpa). JQ 20 shipments were ~228Mt, up 5% y/y. Roy Hill shipped 6.3Mt for the month, +17% m/m
(annualised) and up ~40% y/y, equivalent to a rate of ~77Mtpa. Roy Hill’s JQ 20 run rate was ~62Mtpa, above the JQ 19 rate of ~55Mtpa.

RIO shipped 31.6Mt in June, up 17% m/m (annualised) and +14% y/y. On an annualised basis, JQ 20 shipments were ~384Mtpa. Shipments for the quarter were ~88.1Mt, up ~3% y/y. For H1 20 Rio shipped 161Mt, up 4.2% y/y. RIO is guiding to 324-334Mt. If Rio were to run at a 340Mtpa rate for the remainder of 2020, shipments would be ~332Mt.

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