See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
DXY is in one hell of a freefall now. Panic will be building in Europe as its fiscal stimulus has unleashed the currency:
The AUD is now a golden rocket:
Versus EMs as well:
Oil rolls on. Shale is going to restart. Stupid OPEC:
EM stocks are near breakout:
Junk is across it:
Even US yields lifted:
Westpac has the wrap:
US chief medical advisor Fauci said that the final stage of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine trial was commencing and the earliest confirmation of effectiveness would be November.
White House officials and Republican party members agreed on the next US stimulus package. Discussion with Democrats is expected from Monday.
US June durable goods orders slightly beat the median estimate, although the core measure was slightly below. Headline of +7.3% (est. 7.0%) and ex transportation of +3.3% (est. 3.5%) were still well below pre-COVID levels. Dallas Fed July manufacturing survey rose further to -3 (median est. -4.8, prior -6.1). Gains in the employee (+3.1, prior -1.5) and average work week (+5.8, prior -4.3) components were encouraging but a pullback in expectations (+10.6, prior +19.7) reflected concerns over COVID-19 case count rises.
German July IFO survey rose to 90.5 (est. 89.3, prior 86.3) due to a solid gain in the expectations component to 97.0 (est. 93.4, prior 91.6).
Australia: Weekly payroll data exhibited a strong recovery initially as the Australian economy re-opened. However, these gains faded in the week ending 27 Jun.
US: The S&P/CS home price index is likely to show modest momentum in May (prior: 0.33%, market f/c: 0.3%). Conference Board consumer confidence is predicted to dip in July from 98.1 to 94.4 as sentiment sours on rising case count numbers. The market expects the recent uptrend in the July Richmond Fed activity index will lead to its first positive read since the onset of COVID-19 (prior: 0, market f/c: 5).
US fiscal was the big one for risk on.
The Australian dollar has pretty good trend relationship with gold though certainly not anything like one-to-one:
Gold makes up about 10% of the terms of trade. Very much dwarfed by the empty Chinese apartment commodities at 50%. But they tend to rally together these days anyway as the Fed goes through its various cyclical convulsions in tandem with Chinese empty apartment stimulus.
The gold rally will reinforce the AUD rally.