The latest ANZ-PCA survey has been released, which remains deeply negative:
Whereas house price expectations remain firmly negative across all jurisdictions, except South Australia:
According to ANZ:
The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the September quarter showed a modest improvement in sentiment across Australia’s property sectors, although it remains deep in negative territory as COVID-19 and the associated shutdown of economic activity cuts across the economy.
The impact of COVID-19 is immense. Nationwide, almost all respondents report being negatively hit. Encouragingly, 60% of businesses expect the impact to improve over the coming quarter, however keep in mind that this survey closed on 1 July, before Melbourne’s shutdown was announced.
In the residential sector, overall sentiment remains negative across all states and territories. Price expectations fell further into negative territory, while the employment outlook remains challenging. The outlook for construction and forward orders, however, are both now positive and improving, clearly helped by the HomeBuilder scheme…
The outlook for housing prices remains very poor, with a net balance of 35% of respondents in the residential sector expecting price declines over the next year. Price expectations were quite negative across most states except for South Australia, where a net balance of 29% of firms expect prices to rise over the coming year. Victorian firms were the most pessimistic, with a net balance of 44% of firms expecting a decline in prices…
Our view is that house prices will continue to fall over the next year or so, as the deterioration in household incomes and a sharp fall in population growth both weigh on demand. A very weak rental market will also significantly crimp investor demand.
This survey was taken before the Melbourne shutdown and the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney.
Accordingly, the picture has darkened.
