ASX pops on vaccine hopium

The Australian dollar stuck its nose above 70 cents earlier:

Bonds are crushed:

XJO has popped this morning on vaccine hysteria but its chart is pretty neutral:

Big Iron is flying:

Big Gas isn’t:

Big Gold still looks bullish with a solid uptrend:

Outside of preposterous CBA, Big Banks appear locked into a new downtrend. This will intensify if/when Sydney locks down, which is increasingly likely:

Big Chunt has dislocated from Nasdaq but it’s far too high for the developing housing crash:

When COVID-19 anti-bodies fade in two months, there’s no effective vaccine coming that I can see.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. > When COVID-19 anti-bodies fade in two months, there’s no effective vaccine coming that I can see.

    That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re not immune.
    We have cells that act as a master copy of antibodies. IIRC in your spleen.
    Threat comes along, they start replicating.

    We’ll know with some fair certainty in a few months if people in the Americas start getting it twice en mass.

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      Exactly – what determines the effectiveness of the immune response is how similar the binding sites are on the new infection to the ones the antibodies are designed for from the previous infection. With common cold / flu they are typically different (hence annual vaccines) so the immune response is not 100% protective. Sometimes the new strain is so different the body doesn’t recognize it to access the master copy and it has to go through the initial process of finding new antibodies that work. The immune system is pretty awesome when you think about it.

      My understanding is that we don’t yet know whether Covid will follow this same pattern – but there do seem to be a number of strains of it already.

    • Antibodies are not the key to viral immunity. You actually need to generate t killer cells (th1) that destroy virus infected cells. It’s people with poor TH1 response who have bad outcomes. Old style protein vaccines were poor at generating TH1 response, but between genomic vaccines and new TH1 adjuvants you get a much better response now. That’s why live attenuated vaccines have always been much more effective (unfortunately they are dangerous to immunocompromised people)