And now for a QLD outbreak

As the pollies chase their tails, egged on by Anus Bollocks and his ilk:

It looks increasingly logical that the entire east coast should go into stage four draconian lockdown for six weeks and shoot for virus elimination NZ-style with water-tight shut international borders for years.

Otherwise, we’ll be in and out of this fuck up interminably.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. …and still no social distancing seen in Sydney, no compulsory masks, its as though the politicians just have no clue.

    They’ll make masks compulsory in 3 weeks time when it is too late. Idjits.

    • Jimbo
      I was with someone very senior, (close to CEO level) a couple of weeks ago at one of the 2nd tier banks and I was asking about Melbourne, They said don’t worry about QLD is a DISASTER

    • *Don’t worry about Melb, QLD is a DISASTER

      I am in Melb so have no idea about QLD but another friend is in business banking in SE Qld at one of the big 4 said NOONE is paying their commercial rent. They were very worried about their commercial property portfolio

      • I saw carnage there in 2011 where waterfront had dropped 50%. Asking prices still seem delusional but nothing is moving. Suspect there’s tonnes available on the quiet.

        • Jim
          I had a very close mate that had a home on the on the water just behind surfers paradise.
          He had a small business in printing and got in a lot of trouble.

          I know noone agrees with me, but interest rates are going to rise over the next 12 months as inflation takes hold, inflation in essentials food etc, not asset inflation. Once rates start rising not from RBA out of cycle rate increases due to credit spreads widening and bank funding costs rise, like GFC, then that’s when the pain will be felt.

          Nothing is real at the moment, jobkeeper, businesses not paying lease payments, home loan deferrals. The liabilities are just being deferred and building up.

          Really over the last decade, they should have let natural downturns happen, property prices fall gently like 2011, 2017 etc.

          This is a ticking time bomb, and noone can stop the crash and depression coming

          Interest rates rising is the real black swan, it’ll shock everyone

        • Our landlord is selling off market, he rang to tell us the day we put an offer in on another place on same area. The dirty agent never got back to me on my offer , co,w. , after having it listed for best offer by a date , and pressing me for an offer as they said they had received one and they go early. Now just listed as for sale. Haha they must be sweating

      • I work for real estates in Sunny Coast…just left one office there, spoke to principle , was saying nothing moving and bemoaned they have one sale going through but will have to wait till Sept to get paid..other sales men seem to be walking around in jeans, casual c lothes etc..usually suited up…Yet prices asked are only rising 🤷‍♂️

        • Had dinner with a director on one of the inner large RE groups in Melb (Hawth, Kew, Malvern, Armadale….etc around there.
          He said most of the sales people are on holidays. nothing going on.

          He said no volume and don’t even look at clearance rate it’s all BS….at the moment

    • QLD goes hard on the modern vapourware economy. The public service is very bloated already but converting natural resource royalties into jobs (aka Saudi Arabia) is a big driver of ongoing economic growth, especially around Brisbane. Most other jobs feed off these jobs.

      With Covid debt piling up, a hiring freeze on state gov employees has no doubt been pushed by Treasury. It is very short-sighted and pro-cyclical into the current downturn. After all, no one will migrate north to buy houses without a job to go to. Probably better to keep hiring and go hard on debt for a while, especially with a election looming. Uh oh…

      Worse still, some govt and quasi-govt entities seem to have taken the oportunity to perform some long overdue ‘right-sizing’ under the cover of working from home – Night of the Long Knives style. This is turning workers they’ve left rot for 10 years in bullshit jobs out into the job market in the midst of all this. Double uh oh!

      Many are at an age where they will likley never work again – now joining the young unemployed that their own legacy of inefficient bloat kept from the oportunity of starting a potentially productive career for so long.

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Might be Prudent to shut down the whole east coast now rather than wait for an inevitable shut down thats Coming anyway and that for many will be too late

    • MacroBusiness wanted isolation from the world in February. Managed properly we would have had no Australian shutdowns, no shopping and hospitality shutdowns and may still have Virgin in the air. The inaction of government has cost us billions.

    • EP,
      I asked GAV last year to help me convert an old gelati van to a soup van
      It’s coming

          • Toby
            Who on this site has got some Soup Nazi in them????
            I am too gentle natured to be able to be that hard

          • I think you take my meaning wrong bcn, the soup nazi has been a bit of a meme on here for a few years, I like the meme turn around of people having too much soup for once! And in this case the drivers (as well meaning as they are) would be getting the hot soup yes not the proles? I like the proles, I am one.

      • I know of an old medico couple in Brisbane (husband and wife) who did the soup handouts to homeless from 5am EVERY DAY for many years. It was part of their routine before normal workday.

      • Iron HorseMEMBER

        You would have to call it/them Oliver Twist wouldn’t you?? Please Sir, I want some more…

  3. Eradication is the only sensible option and always has been.

    Health Modelling

    https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond-summary-report.pdf

    These figures show the lunacy of suppression, do the maths, Australian hospitals cannot cope with more than 7000 in ICU. How long does the modelling suggest quarantine, isolation and social distancing (33%) (Scenario 4) go on for? Years!

    • As I’ve asked previously: if eradication is possible for Covid, then why is it not possible for all other respiratory viruses without animal reservoirs ?

      If that’s the case, why didn’t we lockdown decades ago to eliminate all these respiratory viruses ?

      In any case we suspect it’s highly likely that Covid HAS an animal reservoir
      Which makes elimination impossible

        • You didn’t answer my question . Never mentioned vaccines

          Why couldn’t a lockdown eliminate all respiratory viruses simultaneously ?

          Additionally
          Why do you believe that Covid doesn’t have an animal reservoir? When we know that pets have tested positive, and it’s speculated to have arisen from an animal market ?

          In that case, why wouldn’t a lockdown simultaneously eliminate influenza, rhino viruses, adenoviruses, RSV, parainfluenza etc?

          Why didn’t we do this decades ago ?

          • Vaccines exist for influenza, and cases are way down compared to last year. The other viruses you mention are far less serious than Covid-19, and no doubt each one of them has its own characteristics, which would have to be taken into account. If the situation is hopeless, how do you explain the success in eradicating the virus in New Zealand and in all Australian states and territories except for Victoria and New South Wales (which hadn’t had a community transmission in more than 2 weeks until Gladys Berejiklian stubbornly refused to closer the border with Victoria in time). See the chart for days since the last community transmission here.

            https://covidlive.com.au/

          • Again you’re not answering my question

            Are you saying we can eliminate influenza as well ?

            If not, why not? How is it different from Covid ?

          • Suspect that we could elminate at least some strains of influenza at the same time, but we’d need to be testing for them to make sure, and then we’d need to test and quarantine or require immunisation certs for those strains upon borders re-opening.

            To put another way- maintaining the post-elimination disease free state is probably harder than initial elimination.

          • Every virus is different. Influenza lives in waterfowl and domestic birds which produces lots of human events, bats have less interaction with humans. Some respiratory virus persist in host. Adenovirus in adenoid tissue for instance. Herpes virus in nerve cells. Latent virus then reactivated when you get run down. Lockdown can only break transmission, not eliminate carriers. For CV there are few carriers, it just relies on being highly infectious. Measles is the master of this. Enough vulnerable people are born that it can survive indefinitely in a 50k population. We did elimate smallpox and Sars1 though. SARS 2 in winter is a tough task.

          • surfbeach2536

            Tania gave a sensible answer to your question, if there is an animal reservoir it is likely to be in China.

            Eradication in Australia will not be circumvented through a reinfection from a potential reservoir in China if our borders are closed to person to person transmission.

            Additionally Robert makes some good points. The difference between Covid19 and other viruses is its greater ability to disrupt society and hence the additional measures taken to look for a remedy

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    For not obeying social distance guidelines, thus causing billions of economic damage to QLD and NSW, the proud owner of Crossroad Hotel didn’t even receive a fine.

    The COVIDSafe app also turn out to be totally useless. We may end up following China : no COVIDSafe app, no entry to shops and restaurants.

  5. drsmithyMEMBER

    It looks increasingly logical that the entire east coast should go into stage four draconian lockdown for six weeks and shoot for virus elimination NZ-style with water-tight shut international borders for years.

    Otherwise, we’ll be in and out of this fuck up interminably.

    With a couple of notable exceptions, whenever possible the wrong decisions about containing and eliminating the Kung Flu have been taken.

    So obviously option “B” is the future.

  6. Pretty amazing being so blase about the International border being closed for years. That would utterly destroy us with the rest of the World having a competitive advantage of free movement!?!
    Plus need it be reminded this outbreak started with quarantine failure. You’d need to be tighter than a ducks butt or it is all for nothing. So more regulatory handbrakes there.
    Or…We use 4 months data now available on Worldwide strategies and move forward, maturely. We live in a World with covid. Australia currently being like the guy who doesn’t admit his ex-girlfriend won’t take him back and we can ‘go back to how it was.’

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      The median age of the Australian population is 37
      https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/1CD2B1952AFC5E7ACA257298000F2E76?OpenDocument
      Over 50s have a 1.3% death rate from Covid19. What % are left with on-going issues and disabilities ?
      https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

      “Older adults aged 45 years and over made up a smaller proportion of the population in capital cities (37%) than in the rest of Australia (45%).”
      https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/151AA7593B394934CA2573210018DA4A?Opendocument

      Just how many million Australians are 50 ? Is the risk acceptable? Are they all to cocoon ? Are the rest of us never to visit them again?
      Because why? Because international students and high house prices?

      nah mate, the world can suck a lemon

      • The World, while sucking lemons, will still have covid for the foreseeable! The govt can and should protect it’s citizens to the best of it’s ability, but it shouldn’t be at whatever cost and ultimately they can’t stop death itself; and inclusive in that is death from covid. Otherwise pull out all stops to stop death by anything else one can think of. To suggest it can in a modern interconnected World is a folly.

        I wish it wasn’t so too, but it is.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      Pretty amazing being so blase about the International border being closed for years.

      Why would the border be closed for years ?

      • QuentinMEMBER

        It is directly said by HnH in the article. The realistic timeframe for vaccine.

        Of course, could be a forever closed border with no vaccine. Which is the gamble NZ took.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Sorry, skimmed over that the first time.

          I don’t think the borders need to be completely shut. More tightly controlled, etc. Mandatory testing and potentially quarantining (depending on how reliable tests become), yes – and there’s potentially a big hit here to tourism.

          But completely closed to goods and people ? No. It’s manageable. NZ have a leg-up here as they have experience in tight controls already for biosecurity they can lean on.

    • call me ArtieMEMBER

      Hi Quentin. Actually, I think that if the international borders were closed for years, Australia could become a pretty [email protected] amazing place (again). Imagine if I wanted something and I couldn’t get that thing easily from Chyna, I would have to learn how to make that thing. We certainly have the resources. Then everyone else here who wanted that thing I made would buy it from me. It might be amazing

  7. johnl77MEMBER

    I heard of a young guy in Melbourne who wanted to go to Mackay. His father drove him to Brisbane. Crossing the border was no trouble – they said they had been in Coffs Harbour for some time. When in Brisbane, the young guy got on a plane and flew to Mackay. Easy peasy.