UK withdraws from China

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Some bloke at the ANU wants us to deepen ties with China, at the AFR:

High trade shares with China are not a liability but evidence of success. Government policy should not aim to diversify away from success but to ensure international governance to manage it. The key is to manage the risks from economic engagement, not to avoid them, including with China.

The public debate in Australia about reducing dependence on the Chinese economy has been turbocharged by the breakdown in trust between Canberra and Beijing over Sino-American strategic competition, and control of the narrative around the COVID-19 pandemic.

Governments can intervene in the market to slow or stop business with China, as President Donald Trump has done. The Japanese government has allocated $US2 billion ($2.87 billion) in subsidies to onshore production and a further $US219 million to strengthen supply chains with south-east Asia.

The Poms have a much better idea, at the FT:

Boris Johnson’s government is drawing up a strategy to reduce the UK’s reliance on China for key imported goods, as ministers acknowledge that a combination of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit will force a big shake-up of the country’s supply chains.

The planned overhaul will aim to implement the results of “Project Defend” — an internal exercise to ensure Britain retains access to critical goods while diversifying the country’s trading relationships.

Those working on the project, which is overseen by foreign secretary Dominic Raab, stressed it was primarily about strengthening the country’s trade links in the wake of coronavirus but would also lead to the production of some critical goods being brought back to the UK, after the pandemic exposed the UK’s reliance on imports.

“Reshoring everything doesn’t fit with our ambition to be a champion of free trade,” said one person briefed on the talks.

But a recurring theme of the discussions has been the need to reduce Britain’s reliance on trade with China, the second-biggest source of imports by value after Germany.

The Covid-19 crisis has forced ministers to confront the lack of domestic sources of critical medical supplies, such as protective equipment, vaccines and certain chemicals, after the pandemic led to global shortages.

But the Project Defend team also looked at the need to ensure Britain was able to source other vital equipment in future such as transformers and telecoms kit, which were vital for national security Ministers are looking to develop supply chains that do not rely on China in “lower risk” areas, after Beijing’s move to tighten control over Hong Kong and its handling of the Covid-19 crisis further raised tensions with the UK.

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We’ve tried regulating China by inviting it into the Bretton Woods rules-based system. It has abused it mercilessly by gaming its currency, stealing IP and providing all kinds of behind the border protections.

Then, when crisis struck, it demanded open borders to spread its virus while it siphoned off global PPE, followed by selling it back to the afflicted.

There is no regulating the CCP. You’re a joke if you think so, frankly.

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Time to boot it instead.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.