Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Following the rout on Wall Street overnight, Asian stocks took a tumble today, not helped by Chinese stocks taking the day off with both European and S&P futures in the red as traders go defensive before the amateurs start selling off. Gold came back a little as other undollars like Aussie remain depressed while Bitcoin has stumbled out of the blocks, almost making a monthly low below $9000

In China, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index were both closed while  Japanese share markets had a lackluster session with low volatility, the Nikkei 225 finished 1.2% lower to 22259 points making a new weekly low. Meanwhile the USDJPY pair continued its bounce, pipping above the 107 handle but with reduced momentum going into the City open, only just above its start of weak false breakout high:

The ASX200 was the worst in the region, helped along by fears that the QANTAS announcement is putting some reality behind the recession, falling by 2.5% to 5817 points/ The Aussie dollar found some support  but not much else mid session with price still wavering here well below the 69 handle and looking in a weak position in the medium term:

Eurostoxx futures are flat while S&P futures are down 0.5% or so with the four hourly chart poised here at the recent session lows just above 3030 points, with the potential to follow through on last night’s selloff and head back down to 3000 points proper:



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  2. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Today’s Qantas news is just the first wave 🌊 of corporate unemployment breaking on our fair shore.
    A little birdy 🐦 told me there are tens of thousands of corporate jobs on the line over the next few months. A broad spectrum of companies.
    The ponzi has stalled and the engine has cutout. (Yet there are still people demolishing and rebuilding in my suburb. 🤔🤷‍♀️)

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      You’ll need to be more specific about your avian relation my goodly man

    • DominicMEMBER

      Same in my suburb – there are people blissfully unaware right now (but they are not on the same page as the MB Bears, let’s face it).

      As for Qantas, when you read the details, it becomes clear that the ‘domino effect’ of this crisis is grossly under-appreciated. These job losses aren’t occurring in isolation — what about all the jobs indirectly reliant on these jobs and the planes flying? Jobs at Airbus, jobs at Boeing, jobs at aircraft lease finance companies — it just goes on and on. The well-paid sector will end up smashed eventually too: Grads at law and accounting firms, then people higher up the pecking order and eventually Partners.

      Everyone will get belted eventually apart from a select clique in niche areas.

  3. In the ordinary course of events I’d expect to see further falls on the S&P tomorrow. But with the game being grotesquely rigged there’s every chance that some unnatural acts will be performed to juice it up. Markets cannot be allowed to fall, regardless of the actual condition of the people and enterprises that make up the economy.

    The current market levels make me want to vomit, when I consider what is happening in the real world.

    • Certainly one of the drawbacks of Biden but plenty of the independent voters didn’t put coherence top of the list in Trump v Hillary . It comes down to the Coronavirus situation/economy. If it continues to blow up in swing states (which it looks like doing) prior to the election the Dems could put forward a wet paper bag and still win.

        • He is but there are some Republicans in the ranks that aren’t as keen to spend up:

          A deal will be done but will it be enough economic support for main street?

          Also all the spending doesn’t solve the CV problem – if GOP controlled swing states like TX, AZ, FL get overloaded hospitals and ever increasing spread/deaths of people close to them they will want to take out their anger at the mismanagement.

          It’s not so much a vote for Biden rather a vote against Trump.

          • Trump and Hillary were noted in the 2016 campaign as the two Presidential candidates since WWII with the lowest net approval in the polls. The funny thing was that Trump would say something repulsive every so often and push his vote down, and then if he stayed quiet the vote came back to him about 1% a week. This time the undecided component is a lot lower and so far Biden isn’t leaking votes back to Trump. If Biden can stay non-offensive and middle of the road then if it was an Australian election I would say people have made their minds up and are waiting with baseball bats for the election. But it’s America, the mentality is different, the electoral college system is different, the voluntary voting skews things around and the Republican gerrymanders and vote suppression measures makes me nervous about calling anything. 18 weeks and a bit is a very long time in politics.

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          I have no idea. The DNC don’t seem to take Bernie to well.
          I think they are going to go with Biden, and try every thing to get him past the line… and otherwise.

    • yep, he makes Trump look athletic in comparison.

      there must be a group of chemists working madly trying to create a trail mix of uppers that will get him through the debates and just enough public appearances.

    • BrentonMEMBER

      The election will be about the VP (Future El Presidente)… which tells you how disillusioned the electorate has become with Trump. Biden in any other election cycle would be polling at about 0.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Mrs Biden would smile quietly to herself and say: ‘Oh well, just another pair of briefs I’ll need to clean.’

        (That, or the Mexican help)

  4. BHP puts Australian thermal coal mine up for sale

    Prices have tumbled this year, slashing BHP’s likely sale price to less than $1 billion

    India’s Adani Enterprises that have expressed interest in the Mt Arthur mine

    lol. QLD voters will be spewin.

    11 hours ago

    India expects renewable energy growth to leave coal in the dust

  5. CanuckDownUnder

    I’m so glad the NSW gov is “getting tough” (our ABC) on Victorians by advising them to self quarantine for 14 days. Is the plan now to pretend like lockdown never happened and just let it rip?

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      “ This year, the ski season has had a late start. Thredbo will open on June 22, Perisher on June 24 and Charlotte Pass on June 26. Selwyn Snow Resort will remain closed for the season due to bushfire damage.”

      What could possibly go wrong?

    • Got a bunch more vitamin D working in the garden today and can definitely say it is improving my mood and general well-being. Wouldn’t have happened if I was at work……

      • I’m back at work this week. The life guarding is easy as we are nowhere close to reaching the 20 max patrons per area (and I’m viewing all the cleaning I have to do between sessions as a workout) but I have to admit as someone who has always had a job when I’ve wanted one since I started working more than 25 years ago at age 15, I did enjoy my 2.5 months being a dole bludger. It looks like I’ll still be able to get some JS as I’m a low income earner (now I realise I should have been on this thing for years!). Enjoy the garden and I think you are being very smart about how you’re going about everything

      • I was recently diagnosed with severe Vit D deficiency. I’ve been taking mega doses for a while to blast up my levels and it’s changed my life. Muscle and joint pains gone, much boosted mood, clearer thinking, libido is up. I thought I was just getting old, but it wasn’t so.

        Anybody who has aches, pains, general crap feeling, lots of cold and flu illnesses, and low mood should see their GP and have their Vit D levels tested.

        • I had the same diagnosis 5 years ago when I was working nightshift. It’s amazing how much better I felt after returning to normal levels, took a long time to get there but felt so much better.

    • It’s appalling that a fellow Asian is spewing such nonsense. I hope that’s a fake avatar you have there.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The current global mortality rate for COVID is 5%. The mortality rate for the flu is below 0.01%. I have no idea where those numbers come from, but they have no reference to reality.

    • You know, i didnt mins that rant. Thanks for that perspective.
      That COVID would kill as many in 3 yrs as Flu does in 1 does actually put it in perspective.
      That being said, I do think it is the virus we had to have. It is exposing massive fault lines in our b.s. economy that would have taken way too long to surface on their own.

      • DominicMEMBER

        A pandemic has been on the cards for ages — mother nature has a habit of asserting herself over what humans consider to be the natural order of things. The human race is way too arrogant and complacent.

      • BrentonMEMBER

        It is not 3 years.

        US in 2019 had 34,000 flu deaths.

        In just 2 months they’ve had 108,000 covid deaths…. and they look like they are about to kick off another massive 2nd wave in the south.

        Try about 10-15 years worth of flu deaths for 1 year of covid. This bloke is so full of sh!t.

    • Pretty Boy Floyd

      Life is going back to normal in WA, SA, NT, and QLD will follow while the rest of the world is in chaos.

      The virus is around for ever, infecting and re-infecting people for decades to come drastically shortening lives.

      Why would you willingly inflict that on people when you can keep it out by simply closing borders.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Yep, screw Gladys — and the uptight Viccos that ruin holiday season in QLD will not be missed.

      • Sure and money grows on trees too. People also die when they lose everything and can’t put food on the table. Life looks normal because the fed is paying out to stay home like never before. Wait until that money stops

        • Reus's largeMEMBER

          This is where people need to realise that if we did not have million dollar debts then we would be able to survive, there are many small islands / places that are remote with less population than Shitney that survive just fine, the cost of houses is what cripples us and forces us to have to export / import

    • Yeah I agree but you won’t explain it to the commies here who want indefinite lockdown while the government pays them to stay home. People seem to think SA, QLD, NT can go back to normal with borders shut for years but I got news for em, without tourism from interstate and abroad those states have no economy or industry and will go bust very quickly. I’ve lived in most states and out of Sydney and Melbourne there is little money to be made and next to no industry.

    • If Covid is ‘only’ 0.26% then the flu will be much less than 0.1%…unreported cases of common flu will be similarly massive (who on earth reports that they have the flu??!!!).

      It’s patently obvious that Covid is worse than the common flu; it should also be obvious that the common flu is also much less than the official stat.

      My 2c

  6. I was really humbled today by the market. But then again, I asked for it.. There you have it folks.. I don’t win all the time in case people think I only report winners.
    Wasn’t CAI like bashing but it was bad and felt even worse as my original analysis was – too risky, too volatile – do not trade.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      I’ve lost on oil but gold is holding steady, AQX is drilling Boda east finally and will be pumped and dumped soon, just get out on the dump 🤪

      • mate.. I should know better. I said I’ll stay out and did not. Price of gold does not matter as much as futures do when it comes to gold miners now. You have to be careful. Everyone’s on edge.

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          What’s up with ALK, keeps going and going. I cannot complain. But gold speccies like aqx and ree could be good in the next 6 months…… or not 😆🤬😳

    • The past can’t help at this time. It seems on a knife edge, everything. Best to sit it out with as much as your trading funds in cash as you can. As the site mentioned, somehow we got another chance to move our equity position to cash… Cheers for all your insight too

      • i don’t have ego mate.. I am first to tell when I mess up. I learn from that.. most of the time. lol

        • DominicMEMBER

          It’s cathartic to admit all — don’t keep it pent up. Everyone loses from time to time — even the best.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Did you hear Fizzzzaaaa on teh wireless the other day doing a “sorry” about the robodebt fiasco?

      It was sickening, considering the deaths this illegal program has caused.

      Even more so when fizzzaaa was:

      a) scoring a political point against scomo, and
      b) blaming the public service, when we all know it was a political imposition.

      Repulsive on so many levels.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Trouble is, guillotines have a bad habit of finding their most enthusiastic proponents. Just ask Maximilien Robespierre.

      Most of the world’s population would regard the average Aussie as very, very wealthy.

  7. Just watched the HBO McDonalds Monopoly scam series (McMillions). Would highly recommend to anyone suffering Tiger King withdrawal.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      well its free !
      which probably means they are screwing you some other way.
      like front running your orders

  8. Might I suggest you read the fine print?
    At the bottom of the US site under “View Important Disclosures” and then under “Jurisdictions” I see the following:
    “Robinhood Financial, LLC is currently authorized to do business in all 50 states, Washington D.C., and the
    Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.
    Robinhood does not currently offer foreign investment accounts.
    To apply for a Robinhood account, you must:
    (1) be 18 years or older;
    (2) have a valid Social Security Number (not a Taxpayer Identification Number);
    (3) have a legal U.S. residential address; and
    (4) be a U.S. citizen or U.S. permanent resident or have a valid U.S. visa. ”

    UK site not open at all yet, “early access” means getting on a wait list.
    According to the UK website, under “About Robinhood” then “order routing”, they execute through market makers and get a rebate from them, a percentage of the bid-ask spread.
    Also … if you have an account with so much wealth in it … into what legal structure are the funds or securities held? Who has what claim on those funds should Robinhood fail? In what legal jurisdiction would action be required? Are the funds co-mingled or is there a legal structure keeping your funds separate, and how does that work? Understanding details like that are really important if things go bad.