Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s a flat start to the trading week as risk markets continue to absorb a lot of hesitation and concern from weekend stats showing the coronavirus isn’t slowing down as expected, with emerging markets and the failed US response creating a lot of “second wave” risk. Gold has lifted strongly with a decent breakout, while Asian equities are largely down or putting in scratch sessions with European and US futures indicating flat to mild losses tonight.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is off nearly 0.2% to 2964 points while the Hang Seng Index is down 0.9% to take back most of Friday’s gains, now at 24430 points, still in its own little funky sideways trend despite good positive momentum building:

Japanese share markets were down slightly with the Nikkei 225 slipping 0.2% to 22437 points while the USDJPY pair went nowhere again with a fairly tight session to currently be just below the 107 handle before the City open, remaining relatively depressed here and still only just above the weekly low at the 106.80 level:

The ASX200 fell nearly 1% to start the week before a mild recovery on the back of some soothing RBA words has seen it finish a handful of points higher at 5944 points. The Aussie dollar gapped down to an almost two week low on the open before putting on a good rally throughout the day, but retreating slightly before the European open at the mid 68’s and not really going anywhere:

Eurostoxx futures are down 1.2% while S&P futures are dead flat as traders await more COVID-19 and economic data. The S&P500 four hourly chart is ready to breakdown here again below trailing ATR support at the 3040 point level, with price hugging the low moving average and looking as tired as Trump’s helicopter walk from his failed rally last night:

Comments

  1. Conservative judge found to be a sex pest

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/high-court-inquiry-finds-former-justice-dyson-heydon-sexually-harassed-associates-20200622-p5550w.html

    Former High Court Justice Dyson Heydon, one of the nation’s pre-eminent legal minds, sexually harassed six young female associates, an independent inquiry by the court has found.

    A Herald investigation has also uncovered further allegations from senior legal figures of predatory behaviour by Mr Heydon, including a judge who claims that he indecently assaulted her. The women claim that Mr Heydon’s status as one of the most powerful men in the country protected him from being held to account for his actions.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Who was his mate that botched our Tony’s RC into unions? The one who inadvertently pointed out the problems were with developers and their dodgy behaviour?

        Not sure how his career would have progressed. Although, incompetence does seem to be what gets one promoted when connected to the Liberal Party.

        *waves at….geez, too may to count…*

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    How can anyone deny that is incitement?

    “A Democrat win in 2020 would be a tragic setback for African Americans! @SteveHiltonx @FoxNews”

    His white base couldn’t care less and anyone else it’s a red rag to a bull.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        There are riots..
        There are 47 million unemployed.
        And he’s basically trying to tell them Obama would be worse for them. Do the maths.

        • You’re not making sense Mig.

          He’s campaigning for the black vote – which has been the highest under Trump than any Republican in decades. Are you blaming Covid on Trump ?

          Not even Albanese blames Covid on Scomo – its a ridiculous thing to do.

          Your drawing a seriously long bow there unless there is something we are all missing ?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            You’re missing. Wilfully. Pray tell, this very highest percentage under Trump (didn’t happen see 2018) was what 16%? And this will totally getting that up…

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It’s hypothecating that white people could care less what FoxNews says black people want (true); and that black people will be nothing but piss3d off when anyone says that Democrat bad for blacks and Republican redneck inciting sheet wearing Trump voters is good (true, but unlikely to be accepted as fact without careful reasoned explanation).

            Ergo, assuming commentator knows all this, then, what purpose does such a statement serve… make people who won’t vote Trump angry seems about right?

          • >He’s campaigning for the black vote – which has been the highest under Trump than any Republican in decades
            wow. the republicans are doing everything possible to suppress the black vote, because they know its the highest in decades and against them.

  3. Interested PartyMEMBER

    ” It’s an interesting comparison to note. The ideological interests behind the 2010 “Arab Spring” uprising are the exact same ideological interests behind the 2020 “Black Lives Matter” protests/uprising. Not merely similar people, but the exact same people. ”
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/06/22/2010-arab-spring-common-connections-to-the-2020-black-lives-matter-movement/

    Didn’t the last administration have a few people linked to that mob?
    Maybe taking the knee isn’t such a good idea after all.

          • Arab spring like all color revolutions is a CIA tool for uprising. The CIA’s main weapon is grass roots militia – has been for decades, they learned off the British.

            The Arab Spring was not meant to “spread” so things like Egypt were not meant to happen – its was meant to be contained – the Green Revolution in Iran was a trial run (Orange revolution in Ukraine several years before as well after the screw up with Sachasvilli the mad man).

            US domestic politics is entirely irrelevant to what their external global politics does – the CIA would simply take out any President who even tried to mess with “The Company”.

            US domestic politics is a side show to keep the masses away from the real issues of state – controlling the world and exploiting it for US corporations.

            Obama was more militant than both Bushes combined – people forget that.

            Libya was one of the worst things America has ever done – it will come out one day.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            It was Hillarys State Dept but I won’t let Obama skate! When he didn’t close gitmo day 1 turned on him too.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            “Libya was one of the worst things America has ever done – it will come out one day.“

            How many people do you know that could describe in any detail America’s behaviour in Central and South

            https://youtu.be/NKwJI9axblQ

            Throwing unsavoury past misdeeds down an Orwellian memory hole is a crucial principle of Imperial culture

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            In October 2011 I was in my closing days of TV journalism in Moscow.

            That day I recall well, wondering what it portended – the day the video was being beamed through by Associated Press of Gaddafi trying to flee Sirte, being cut off and then pulled from a pipe and then somehow being killed (the video didnt show the precise moment) amidst a melee of screaming and dancing. From memory I was watching the video a matter of an hour or two after the event (the video came though amazingly quickly). One of the Russians at the station was connected closely with the Russian security world, and I bumped into him in a corridor and asked if he had seen the video. We watched (again in my case) together as I took the feed straight to the point just before they were dragging his body about and someone shoved something up the corpses backside. I didnt particularly like Gadaffi, but I thought him a rather benign loon. Anyone who has ever seen the Adam Curtis docos will know the ‘real’ story. Gaddafi took the blame for the Berlin bombing and Lockerbie from the NeoCons – when the entire intelligence world knew full well that Syria’s Assad and done both and was a generally malevolent presence in the Middle East, whereas Gaddafi was just another loon wanting to give a 3 hour address to the UN on his ‘third way’.

            I will always recall the finality of what he (the Russian security related journo – who had some serious contacts) said to me……..’ This is all the Americans, and they do not know what they are doing or what they are unleashing.’ 9 years later after seeing Trump reason why fewer virus tests is better I can help but think (once again) that he was 100% right. They still dont know what they are doing, and the NeoLiberal agenda (Trump, Hillary, the Davos set etc) still has absolutely no sense of how to deal with the world that most of us live in. When the NeoLibs go they might get a bit of the Gaddafi treatment.

          • Lulz TTW I still remember your old comments … late stage alcoholic oration of the OT from memory in realities anguish for not complying.

            Now look at all them eating their own like well trained Kzinti.

            Not long ago saw a few libertarian blogs calling Rons old pal Gary a nutter – tis a sight too behold.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Thanks Gunna interesting tale.

            Speaking of Libya, Egypt, Caliphs and Pharoes – looks the Pharao is going to stamp the Caliphate of Benghazi. Won’t even be good for a bump in the oil price and doubt Israel cares though they’ll probably help Egypt lose a few soldiers.

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          Wasn’t Huma Abedin HRC’s assistant? She’s MB, i think. Same as Vallerie Jarret…one of obama’s advisers. Come to think of it, there are stories about obama having his harvard educauion funded by this mob…or people with ties to them…wonder why they would pay that for him……story goes that these people got to pick his cabinet for him.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      People with no idea about the Middle East shouldn’t comment on it.

      The ‘Arab Spring’ didn’t start in Egypt, it started in Tunisia after is street vender burn himself to death after the corrupted government official took away his livelihood.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi

      The ‘ideological interest’ with BLM is no where near comparable.

      The Muslim Brotherhood did not start the protest in Egypt : they won the general election after Mubarak is kicked out.. The Muslim Brotherhood were themselves kicked out in another mass protest when the Egypt people realized what they wanted is a Pharaoh, not a Caliph.

      • Then don’t comment.

        It started with the Iranian Green revolution – the Arab Spring was a co-ordinated CIA activity – you can think it was a grass roots event all you like – but its entirely delusional.

        Some aspects “joined in” who were not meant to Bahrain, cough cough – but were quickly Ak-47 back into compliance by CIA strongmen.

        Kidding yourself.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          Iran Green Revolution? It’s hardly a revolution when the government didn’t get thrown out. The last revolution in Iran is 1979.

          The first one is the ‘Rose’ revolution in Georgia, which is a very blatant CIA operation, followed by the Ukraine Orange Revolution. This is where the ‘coloured theme revolution’ comes from. The Thai later on adapted the colour theme with ‘red shirt’ and ‘yellow shirts’ as well, however they are unlikely to be CIA linked as US interest is not concerned.

          What is the US interest in overthrowing Ben Ali in Tunisia? How many people in USA can locate Tunisia on a map?

        • NB or whatever your real name is… your wasting your energy you just can’t ration with some here like Mig et al.

  4. Joe Rogan podcast, why do corporations support the George Floyd protests?
    https://youtu.be/JPAaRsjDkC8
    Talks about wokeism being a distraction for owners of capital so they can continue to get away with inequality. Just like EP, I and a few others have been saying for a while now.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          specifically: run like you stole it from ‘the sneaker store’ and are being chased by two underpaid depressed looking shop assistants who you are clearly going to get away from.

          Seen that twice this year alone. Same store both times.

          Edit: the irony of someone doing a runner from a sneaker store seemed generally lost on the participants.

          • ‘swot happens when footwear that costs $25 and is marked up several 000 %.

            All comes back to the ginormous rents, tied to your own turnover in their favour usually.

            Just get the KT26s, somethings never go out of style

          • Failure to catch the “offender” would be very good advertising for the particular sneaker involved – no one will catch up to you in these. Perhaps it was all fake.

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      The protests are a pavlovian response wheeled out to serve a purpose. Keep everyone at each others throats, and stay distracted.
      The answer for us is to find out who is ringing the bell, and take them out. We will not have peace until this happens.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      He is spot on. And the irony is things have never been more vulnerable to genuine protest. Arranging a street protest is safe. Street protests used to be effective not because people were in the streets, but by being in the streets they weren’t at work or being conscripted etc. and were encouraging others to do the same. A Saturday morning protest after yoga is less effective.
      This seems obvious but nothing will change while self identified progressives continue to defend Keating.

    • All the way back to Bernays and supply side economics … staged female actors set to the stage of a suffragette protest photographed smoking with the header of freedom and liberty … like men …

  5. Was chatting to my new neighbour this arvo and unlike my double dole collecting lazy butt he is actively looking for work.

    Same boat as me, working “full-time” casual through a single labour hire agency pre-corona, laid off courtesy of Slomo and now trying to get back into it with the relaxed restrictions.

    Unlike me instead of just a few applications to test the market he has been smashing them in and is now registered with an additional 4 labourhire mobs and he’s getting nothing. Brisbane is fcked. Glad I haven’t been looking too hard (and that I’m finacially secure enough [just, lol] not to have to).

    P.S. Labourhire full-time casual is a joke. Am I right that the rodent Howard made that a thing?

      • I’m actually glad I haven’t tried harder, old mate neighbour is losing his mind after so much effort with no bites. Having his annecdata answered the questions I had without me having to find out first hand.

        I’ll still keep applying but I won’t be giving the applications much thought, just throw mud at the wall and see if anything sticks. What I’m really looking at doing is making my surburban garden as productive as possible seeing the lean times may be here to stay for awhile.

    • I’m now actively trying to smash a few applications out. Lots of jobs that don’t excite me, but I need/want coin to be able to work on my own projects.

      • I just pulled all my old homebrew gear out of storage, between that and veggie garden that’s all I’m concentrating on lol. Bcnich has got me worried about the big one….

        • Fair enough too. I would be happy to just earn $1000 P/week at the moment. It would cover most expenses. But not leave much else. I have my planter boxes basically ready for plants now.

          I actually think I may end up having to start my own business at this rate.

      • The job ads growth rate is phony since the lockdown was relaxed as many are duplicated/and companies testing the market. The jobs are predicated on a full strength economy, which isn’t realistic for a while yet. The weakness inhibits new ventures too. Contract or project work may succeed but its a Dutch auction there too.

    • It was the accountants, WAF. You should hear some of my weller to do business mates and what they do – just about every private dollar they spend goes through the company, fake invoices between mates etc.

      Howard brought through a period of immense workplace change, most of it designed to enrich business at the expense of employees. There should be no such thing as a casual, if the business is ongoing and you turn up every week. Should be guaranteed a minimum salary, for a minimum number of hours, sick leave, super, annual leave etc. Who do you think picks up the slack when these guys can’t afford to live?

    • Your Premier isn’t making it any easier. Qld will suffer a major shock once job keeper ends that’s the only thing propping up many small businesses and jobs atm

      • I feel QLD Labor needs to lose a few seats at the next election to shake them up and keep them a bit more honest but apart from that I’m happy with the job they’re doing.

        Everyone I speak to supports the border closure and every day VIC looks worse and the border closure justification increases.

        There may be other failings of the current govt, but QLD LNP is useless and a pack of c!nts to boot. The Newman govt was a joke, their current innings as opposition is even worse and this is the land of PHON so there really is no alternative to the majors.

        Whatever the failings, it’s all we have.

  6. btw – I took footsore’s advice and went for NT recommendation and bought 3020i with same amp I had in mind.

  7. Some personal news and a ? for Gavin.
    Oldest son is mech engineer and surprised all of us when he applied for a scholarship to ADFA, as a civvie, which involved a holiday commitment to work for DOD and join them upon graduation in the graduate program. After a couple of years with DOD working on sonar stuff, he landed a job with Thalis and went to Sydney. Married his girlfriend from school and they have my grandson, Harry. Went ok for while, but split now, and he now has serious 22yo girl in Glasgow, who is on last year to become a psychologist….

    Anyway, he called last night. I knew that he had applied for a Naval Commission with the Royal Navy (he has a Brit passport like me), but he surprised me last night when told me he was heading to Vic to train to become a rotary wing pilot in three weeks. ie with the Royal Australian Navy!!!! He told me they’d waived the RAAF aptitude test, were fast tracking him, esp after he had declined an Engineer commission, and told them he wanted to test himself…

    As a former ARA man, to see your son enter service is special. As I am color blind and had wanted that career for myself, the news is extra special.
    ————-
    Gavin, I taught my boys how to service cars and had quite a number of BMs that they helped to restore, service and so on. Eldest son went for the Commodores at first and then bought a replica M3. Based on a ’95 328i coupe, the interior is all M3, and all the running gear is good, M3 wheels, carbon mirrors etc.. Brutal car will spin the rear tyres going up a hill… Cost him 11k in 2010, he was 19.
    He still has it and a new Commodore. And a boat and all the shit that one accumulates, particularly when you have a dependent. Anyway, I am going to bring it up to Cairns and I’ll keep it for him, put it on historic plates.
    The E36 M3 was the last of the straight sixes and many think of it as future classic. Son’s car is identical to them, but lacks the plate under the bonnet.
    What you reckon, worth keeping long term? Cheers, mate, hope that house and your plans are going good. I used to think Melbourne was grouse when I lived there. Saddens me everytime I return.

    • E36 is pretty cool and eligible for Historic registration. Given its not an original (car at Birth M3) that may limit its future value growth, but I love inline 6s.. at the end of the day if you enjoy it and love driving it. Keep it. It’s easy to forget how much work / effort goes into something. I know many people sell cars and years later wish to have kept them.

      • I only I hadn’t had to sell my cars for the next one, eh? How about RS2000s? Reckon if I only had the shell of my old ’72 Yellow HQ, I’d be in clover. Me, I’ve moved onto Mercs, but I’d be happy to hold onto son’s M3 while he gets on with a serious change in his life.
        Thanks Gavin

    • Someone once said that the very act of putting up your hand to be a politician should disqualify you.
      Those Greens, what a waste of rations

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      Less hyperbolic than I was expecting

      Highlights the need for a convo about Treaty and a republic

      • Agree, even I’d have pause pledging allegiance to the Queen. Given my Irish ancestry. I think it’s about time we became a republic. It would quash a lot of the concerns and could be a stealthy way of bringing about other changes that would otherwise upset the general population.

    • Shades of MessinaMEMBER

      Can I also declare that I don’t identify as someone who needs to pay tax ?.

      Happy to forego the benefits I will receive from the new submarines in return.

  8. Interested PartyMEMBER

    Remember the US state governors who mandated covid positive patients back into nursing homes?

    https://twitter.com/SteveScalise/status/1274829394981388296

    Turns out that one of them ( this one is a health official ) went so far as to remove her own mother from a nursing home while enforcing the mandate on everyone else.
    https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/pennsylvania-health-official-moved-mother-from-nursing-home/

    “The health official responsible for overseeing nursing homes in Pennsylvania — where nearly 70 percent of the state’s coronavirus-related deaths have occurred — has reportedly moved her elderly mother out of a facility as deaths skyrocketed.”
    At what point can these people be held liable?