Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Heading into tonight’s US non-farm payroll (monthly unemployment) print, Asian stock markets have put on another strong finish to the week as risk sentiment goes back to its excessive highs following an all too brief pause. Non USD currencies are doing well before the report with gold the only undollar not to make any meaningful gains, although it remains above the $1700USD per ounce level.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has finished the session with a flourish, up 0.4% to 2940 points, while the Hang Seng Index surged more than 1.6% to 24771 points. This puts price almost above the previous sideways highs from April as this market gets ready to breakout:

Japanese share markets just keep going with the Nikkei 225 gaining 0.7% to 22863 points, still continuing its extremely overbought uptrend. The USDJPY pair is doing the same with its blowout move now pushing up to 109.30, almost hitting the previous monthly high at 109.40:

The ASX200 still can’t crack the 6000 point level and finished the week = and the long weekend – with the expected profit taking, finishing up a few points to 5998. The Aussie dollar has pushed aside its mid week high and surged up to the pre-pandemic level just below the 70 cent level, breaching very briefly earlier today – where to with tonights unemployment print? This is way overextended!

Eurostoxx futures are up over 1% alongside equally exuberant S&P futures which cannot be held back as the daily and four hourly charts start to resemble the rising number of new COVID-19 cases in the not yet finished first wave or the increasing numbers of police brutality complaints in the land of the free…

Have a good long weekend!

Comments

  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Gawd I hope the Supreme court rules against it yet loads of people protest in Sydney tomorrow. I want the FU chaos!!

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      On Tuesday in Sydney someone had a sign saying ‘protect black trans women’ …. what is that

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          Protect black trans people. It’s not really all that complex. It’s a black tranny, like you see at the Imperial in Erskineville doing the comedy act. Look after them, they’re ace!

      • Many a year ago I was having a coffee at uni. I struck up a conversation with the guy opposite me. They weren’t a guy yet, but that’s the way that they were heading. I didn’t get the anger. I’d been threatened to be poofta bashed and had expletives yelled at me by drunk guys from cars. But that was because I grew up in rural Queensland and some people up there have very narrow definitions of masculinity. Also, growing up, I was always taught that there’s nothing wrong with been queer. We had family friends that queer, and I had a cousin that was queer. It was just part of my world.

        After my coffee and conversation finished I thought about what they told me about their growing up experience was and what they were up against. I’ve also known people who have been bashed, those that have had breakdowns and are afraid of leaving the house after being threatened, and, most recently, a friend who still shies from holding their partner’s hand in public. And he lives in what is often painted as one of the most queer friendly suburbs in Australia.

        And the thing is, even though I may think that things have progressed, and that queer and trans people are more accepted and safer, at the street level that isn’t always the case. They aren’t treated the same way I am. It is more dangerous for them on the street and they do face more discrimination than I do. So I don’t pretend that just because things have improved that things are fantastic for that community.

        On the topic of black people and discrimination. In almost any situation that I can imagine I’m pretty sure that I’d rather be white than black when it comes to stereotyping and judgments made by others. If a police officer pulled me over, including in Australia, I’d rather be white than black. Being asked by security to leave a pub or club, I’d rather be white than black. Job interviews. White. There may be some situations or scenarios where mechanisms are in place that would mean that being Aboriginal may mean I’m not considered first. I’d be lying if I didn’t feel peeved by it, yet I’m ahead 99% of the time so it’s very little of me to not get over it.

        I doubt that being a black trans would lighten the load by any means. Still, it is only a sign, and a simple one at that, so why make a fuss out of it?

          • Nah I was gonna guess Newtown or St Kilda or Fitzroy but was just curious if I’m correct? I honestly don’t know?

          • My unhinged and expletive filled rant has been moderated. I thought there was such a thing as free speech. Opinions outside of the norm just aren’t tolerated on this site. It’s just a load of BS pinko fake news driven by TDS. That must be it. Right? Otherwise I’ve found the weekend’s mystery word / phrase / slur.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Which one footsy, which one… ?

            Might be time for a nice red, or a stiff black.
            Or maybe just a generally refreshing beverage. 😀

            PS keep fighting the good fight, I might even chip in again one day. If I can escape the general sense of defeatism engendered (no pun intended) by all the stupids in the real world.

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          My comment is waiting moderation

          Anyway, me and my wife have been chased down the street by drunk locals in Coonabarabran, we don’t need therapy or special treatment, you’ll be okay footsore, you’ll be fine

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Reminds me of the times I’ve accidentally attended the Chinamen lady property investor relations parties … “Grab the Lite guy, he got big Coco” …

  2. DingwallMEMBER

    Just listened to some interviewee on the Bloomberg European open … and she was very positive in saying the recovery will be close to V shape …… molded by policy response…….. so it’s all awesome guys and gals …. pile in

  3. An anecdote about property. A relative bought a house a month ago for $1.695 mil before selling their current place. Before covid I think it would’ve got $1.2 mil but went for $1.08 mil. So with moving costs (Stamp duty alone is $80k), that’s another $700k onto the mortgage, which to my reckoning means they owe $1.2 – $1.3 million. So they have a nice house and nice cars, but will be paying money back for the rest of their lives. Why does Australia encourage this?

    • Because it makes money for the banks. And lets say in the event that en mass people like these cannot repay their mortgage, the banks get bailed out by you-know-who.

      Simple!

      • Household earnings would be approx. $200k give or take $10k. Couple of young kids, both parents full time, both kids in childcare 3 days and grandparents 2 days.

        • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

          A $1.7M house with a $1.2M mortgage on a $200k income is just crazy. It’ll never be paid off. They’re renting from the bank. Is this a typical scenario or an outlier?

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            It’s a game of capital appreciation. A one income, 3 kids, C43, Toyota LC and a yappy dog neighbor looks to be in the same boat.

            Keep it for 5-7 years, sell it, get more debt, cash out at 65.

            As my grandfather would say, shvt for brains.

          • F’me, who are these people? And they have kids too. I just don’t get it. I’m happy to owe $150k. Want to extend and build a garage but don’t want to add $100k on top. I don’t like debt.

          • It is not abnormal. I know a few people who owe upwards of a million and these aren’t professionals on $250k per year, these are teachers and nurses. The other thing about it is, they are aged in their 40’s. There is going to be a whole generation who will still have a largish mortgage when they reach retirement age (unless an inheritance or two helps them along the way). One friend and her husband had a celebratory dinner in January to celebrate the day their debt went under $1 million – age? both 48. Only difference this time is that it is family, I don’t like it when my family do silly things with money.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            WTF was the dinner held? BurgerKing? RedRooster?

            Or hopefully somewhere even cheaper.

          • My brother and his wife used family help to buy a house basically outright. I married the wrong woman, my brother on the other hand married a woman whose father has money and gifted them $350k+ and they managed to buy for $560k and have basically a $40k mortgage. They didn’t have to pay stamp duty like I did.

            But despite being gifted that amount of money, they did the right thing I think. No debt is a burden off their souls. Lockdown has not been stressful for them, in fact they loved it.

            I just couldn’t stomach owing that much money to anyone.

    • Barry,

      “..Why does Australia encourage this?..”

      Because most Australians have great difficulty in comprehending that we have State/Private bank cartel running our public monetary system and for the last 40 years the process of deregulating the operations of the private bank members of the cartel meant that the assets used to secure credit extended by the cartel must be continually inflated.

      Anything less than that and the model of privatised public money will collapse.

      • I do get it, but it more of an exasperated why! I would call myself a libertarian and think people should be given the freedom to do what they like, but sometimes I am just blown away by how silly people are with money when they get seduced by status, shiny things etc.

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Libertairianism, Communism, Capitalism, Socialism, Free Marketism.
          Labels. Easiy applied meaning nothing.
          Look at what is actually happening. Follow the Money

          • Money ain’t worth anything now anymore anyway. So maybe having loads of debt won’t have enduring consequences?

          • Neoliberalism’s history is not a heavy subject matter and easily cross referenced, dog whistles and money crankery are of little value in informing.

            Doctrinaires are the silliest of the lot no matter what camps views they ascribe too E.g. far right Libertarians and feral Marxists are just bookends.

            You have Corporatism which is a legal construct built to service a very small cohort of the population, currently politics in many developed nations is just an administrative arm of that construct.

            The punch line of which is all the anti government sorts over the years serving neoliberalism.

        • how silly people are with money
          If the elite are successful in continuing to goose the money supply, as they have been since forever, then those people will look like geniuses (genii?) and you and I will be the ones looking silly.

          • It’s like an F1 car – leave on the racetrack everything will be fine, but put some bumps on the track and it all ends in tears.

          • Funny but also an F1 car must travel above certain speeds for its ground effects to work (downforce) or it won’t have grip around the corner, so you can’t go too slow around corners or you’ll lose control. Which sounds counterintuitive, but kind of like our property and stock markets. They have to be going up at speed. They cannot stay still or stable or they will fall.

          • Have a few relatives as described above and there looking a lot smarter than me the last few years. Im not sure of there stress levels , it wouldnt sit well with me owing all that money but they happily go on holidays etc.

      • Buy as many properties as possible, let them accumulate capital gains over 30 years and inflation will reduce the debt for you. So when you retire the rent will more than cover any repayments and selling 1 or 2 will cover all debt remaining and then you retire a multi-millionaire.

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      He’s mistaken when he calls the governing system a “rulership”. The US is governed by consent…however…he is correct that this system has been corrupted by the elite, and now we are where we are.
      We are entering the time line when the Declaration of Independence gets dragged out and re-established with blood.

      “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. ”

      The elite desire to place the USA under some sort of rulership, of that much we can be certain.
      I believe they will fail.

  4. Just came back from shooting a property for an agent in Melbourne. He asked if I was busy, I said “not really, are you? He said “no, it’s terrible. The market is very very bad, very bad”. I said that things will be back on again in spring and he muttered something about crash. Then he got in his Porsche and drove away so I didn’t exactly feel sorry for him but I’ve never seen an agent so pessimistic.

  5. just listening to Let It Be.. the very first song I learnt how to play on guitar.. I was ~14. It was a must in my block of building.. to be able to play guitar that is.. but I liked it anyway.. my sister was 6 year older and introudced me to Bob D, Jimmi H, Beetles, Pink Floyd, Clash, Sex Pistols, Susie Q, Janice J..
    That was bit of revelation as until about 10 I was only privy to classical music which I mostly listen when I trade.

    and yeah.. already drunk as.. and really thinking to re-read Emil Zola. Anyone wants to learn anything about industrial revolution in France and Europe in general I highly recommend Zola. You will see that things haven’t really changed. Just the skinning method changed.

      • I seee quadruple mate.. can’t read and it takes lot of effort to ype tyis.. nochance I read anything now.. that was my attemot to type withuoig going back tio fix spenllinga. But yaeah I wonn’t argue with oyuod..
        Just to give you an idea the state I am in and the night is young.. this line is done with lot of editing..

        • A recommended reading order[13]

          La Fortune des Rougon (1871)
          Son Excellence Eugène Rougon (1876)
          La Curée (1871-2)
          L’Argent (1891)
          Le Rêve (1888)
          La Conquête de Plassans (1874)
          Pot-Bouille (1882)
          Au Bonheur des Dames (1883)
          La Faute de l’Abbé Mouret (1875)
          Une page d’amour (1878)
          Le Ventre de Paris (1873)
          La joie de vivre (1884)
          L’Assommoir (1877)
          L’Œuvre (1886)
          La Bête humaine (1890)
          Germinal (1885)
          Nana (1880)
          La Terre (1887)
          La Débâcle (1892)
          Le Docteur Pascal (1893)

  6. Has anyone on here bought perth mint gold certs ?
    Any feedback or advice thanks

  7. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Just found a 2005 SA Shiraz at the back of the pantry (wife’s cooking wine collection). How good is semi-lock-in?
    (It’s probably been there for 15 years!)

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      How does it work for rennos? Architect, town planning, building permits, tender docs, tender bids, contract negotiations etc, in 7 months. Along with finance. It’s the grant the government gives when they don’t want to give a grant.
      As for new homes, who’s going get a loan during a pandemic, who wasn’t going to buy anyway?
      Which interests are being served?

  8. gong downstairs to watch something and stop tweeting before I get arrested.. lol

  9. oh, yes.. hope gold sinks to $1680 or $1670 and DOW add another 800 points. If that happens I am going all in on Monday. All the way..

  10. Erm…. does anyone know or can explain this?
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/06/do-robots-dream-of-higher-australian-dollars/
    “The cycle script typically ends with a bursting asset price bubble as inflation surges into monetary tightening”
    After all this money splashing are we talking raising IR now? Surely that is madness..

    Husband noted last night that for the first time someone was going through our bins looking for cans. People are getting hungry. I asked how long before they come knocking on the door..

      • More signs of Westpac desperation to increase loan volumes and loan sizes to support prices (50% of their book being IO and all…)

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Old chinamen type lady has been ransacking our bins since the 10c scab grab was introduced. I always put my redeemable goods at the bottom of the bin under everything else just to make her work for her 90c! It’s hilarious. She knows it’s there. Like feeding the birds.

      • Fck. I knew the focus would be the bins as soon as I hit submit.

        Any chance the rest of it made sense? Coz it really didnt to me.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          ‘They’ will print money until after it stops working. Low interest rates, higher inflation.
          In this environment, not lowering rates could be seen as monetary tightening.

    • Im also very interested in what the meaning of this is?
      Ive heard it said that they would let inflation run for a while to make up for the years of so called low inflation.
      Would inflation have to be very very high before CBs intervened as otherwise the cure would be worse than the disease? Mass bankrupties etc. These are not opinions just questions going around in my head.

  11. I am curious what was the poo’s intentions when it touched 7 for few brief seconds? Going into oblivion now.. that would have been the moment to short it and enjoy the profits on Monday or Tuesday.

  12. Arrest Chinese Supremacists

    my x, slca and fcx just exploded at the opening. incredible this market for the savvy punter. also got hhc.