Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are yet to take a breather after a week of excess with only Chinese markets pulling back ever so slightly. Risk sentiment remains well above macro reality going into tonights ECB meeting with most currencies slipping against USD except gold which has recovered slightly to just above $1700USD per ounce.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has taken back its previous gains to finish down 0.2% to 2917 points, while the Hang Seng Index is off a similiar amount to 24265 points. This keeps price below the previous sideways highs from April but still well above previous firm support at the 23300 point level:

Japanese share markets just can’t stop rising although today’s session was relatively modest with the Nikkei 225 gaining only  0.3% to 22625 points, still continuing its extremely overbought uptrend. The USDJPY pair is also continuing its blowout with a lovely bearish rising wedge pattern nearly complete on the four hourly chart as it breaches the 109 handle:

The ASX200 was looking to crack the 6000 point level and did so twice through the session but couldn’t close above that key level although it had the best day of all, closing 0.8% higher to 5995 points. The Aussie dollar is finally taking a breather, sitting just on the 69 handle and still unable to get above the pre-pandemic level just below the 70 cent level:

Eurostoxx futures are flat, up only 0.1% or so alongside S&P futures which continue to march in a straight line like the recently called in military on Washington DC.

Oh and happy Tiananman Square Day everybody. Authoritarians around the world unite! Get those tanks ready…


  1. “Oh and happy Tiananman Square Day everybody. Authoritarians around the world unite! Get those tanks ready…” – yeay

  2. bought BBOZ near the bottom and sold them nowhere near the top. And it seems I should have hold.

    • Sympathies Niko. I also bought at the wrong time. Your decision to get out and minimise your losses was perfectly reasonable. It may still prove to be the correct one. I am hodling but don’t expect to get my losses back easily, if at all. Arty

      • you misunderstood me or I am not clear.. I bought at the right time but did not hold long enough so only made few coins rather then proper profit. In the morning I was buying from $8.68 and was chasing them down to $8.56 but sold way too early.. Embarrassed to say when. ~20min later I would have made real money.

    • I got reamed doing the same thing on the S&P and finally threw in towel last week. Feel your pain!

      • Ian ArunMEMBER

        Same here…got out at a loss when ASX 200 crossed 5550…good chance we would get a chance to get on it again when the loan delinquencies hit later this year or early next year

    • I took on BBUS and YANK as a hedge (6-12 months while this covid thing plays out) and have been royally screwed buy the market on it like a sick joke 😂 I’ll seriously consider losing the YANK if AUD gets to 74c plus.

      I consider there’s a FAGMANZ Facebook, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Zoom etc bubble which could well go higher, it may never crash but I’m on the side of a higher probability of a crash than not right now (feels similar to dot com).

      • A lot of Australians seem too, but I should be more specific, they only think Trump is the problem and once he is gone things will be awesome again. Because all the previous administrations have never sold out the labour classes, or waged war in foreign lands, or were racist, sexist, etc.

    • It’s just typical Chris, his TDS flares up and then he likes to stir the pot….oh and delete anything anti Democrat.

    • Because it creates division and identity politics to have everything be Trumps fault. In no way, does anybody want to shine light on the true culprit, which is the vast amount of wealth and power the capital classes are taking from the labour classes.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      How is the rioting Trumps fault?

      Surely if “the lowest unemployment EVAR” we were getting told about a few months ago was thanks to Trump, the rioting must be as well ?

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      Trump has certainly not helped but my thoughts are that this was the match that was needed to set off the fuel that was building from mass unemployment and the American people realising that their government can and will do very little for them in a time of crisis.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        This is hardly the first such flare up even in recent American history, and unlikely to be the last.

        There’s decades of systemic discrimination and economic disadvantage driving this.

        That said it’s difficult to imagine anyone else who has – or would – have ballsed up the situation as comprehensively as Trump.

        • Yeah nah. There are more middle and upper class black Americans than there are Australians. Not all African Americans live in ghettos or down on the farm. From what I understand it is not that it is impossible for them to escape generational poverty it is more the fact that it is harder for them than for other ethnic groups. (Those are just facts, I have no understanding of what the causes are).

    • Well, for one thing I though he was a Brissie boy. For seconds, he was way too polite… It is very likely he would have called them a “pack of venal cvñts” and would’ve told him to go get f’ed and take his marketing shïtshow to Hawaii… and stay there…

      See, that guy’s nothing like [email protected] 😉

      • I have my scomo heckling all planned out if I ever come across him. Originally it was just going to be an endless tirade of swearing until I realised it would just get censored and I’d probably get arrested. Now the plan is just to stick him about adamantly going the footy then backflipping and keep on that a real sharkies fan would’ve gone, shut the country down so sharkies would have an excuse for not winning and just keep up with that sort of stuff.

          • The lawns are very sad, patchy, weed riddled and half dead with what looks to be several different species of summer grass. I did weed and feed couple of weeks back, got a little bit of life back and culled most of the weed. The bare patches I turned the earth and top dressed, the sadder bits of dead summer grass I top dressed as well, but left the healthier bits alone just to save money on soil (may regret this later). Then I sowed over all of it with this:

            TLDR, seeds.

          • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

            If you’ve the financial wherewithal , rip it up, new top soil, test soil, dress, lay turf

          • I’m a scumbag renter so can’t justify doing that. Would love to, really keen to have a lush green carpet but it just isn’t appreciated enough by RE agents/landlords. Only just moved in and only have 3 small lawns so I’ve spent a grand total of $100 on supplies and my time. It’ll either come good and money well spent or it won’t and I’ll make do with what there is, the state of the lawns show the RE/landlord dgaf, I’m purely doing this for my own enjoyment.

          • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

            Fair enough – if you’ve the inclination – you might strip back say 10sqm of ground, dress the soil, then lay say 10sqm of turf – the Sir Walter from Bunnings is perfectly good, but if you’re in QLD you might find something else.

            I tried this in a patch of back yard with 1ft between each square – they grow into each other quickly and spread from there. The spacing lowers your cost, and of course you can lay them edge to edge, and dress the edges with some quality topsoil.

            I reckon you could do this for <$100 including turf and say 1/2 cube of top soil.

  3. Just seen tweets from 3 differnt people working in China claiming their organisations have been “advised” to not buy Aussie beef.

  4. Interested PartyMEMBER

    Ok…Ok….ya gotta look at this one.
    It turns out that ole George….the poor bugger who happened to rest his neck under a cops knee for too long has had another autopsy…and before you click to read…guess what he had…..

    Good grief……2020 is the gift that just keeps on giving
    Stop the world.
    I need to get off.

    • George was a class act. Definitely worth destroying civilisation to protest his death, or pick up a new TV, or whatever.

    • Plus fentanyl and meth in his system. Obviously the knee is what killed the poor guy but getting murder two will be interesting, if the cop gets off there will be hell to pay.

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            So he gets the blame for the knee on the neck as well???? okaaaaay

          • IP…

            Just his FinReg, labour law, environmental law, roll back record Trump is worse that all put together since Bush Jr.

            That he rolls with the mygot and qanon loon pond sorts for a payday is just a plus …

      • Also as reported by nine news –
        The full report’s footnotes noted that signs of fentanyl toxicity can include “severe respiratory depression” and seizures.

        Murder 2 is a risk…

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      I’m pretty sure I read before today that he had coronavirus, so now it’s confirmed in the autopsy. George Floyd is already sick, and kneeling on his throat killed him. The outrage comes from the police officers ignoring his plead of ‘I can’t breathe’ : if they called an ambulance he may still be dead, but there would not be any riots right now.

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      Mayhaps you should avail yourself of the independent report conducted after this.,.

      • Interested PartyMEMBER

        I wasn’t being judgemental. In fact, that is the first time I have mentioned the actual crime. Please don’t take my comment for anything other that a note about the complete madness that is going on.

  5. Boris has a plan for Australia to take in another 3 million Chinese

    The British upper class just do not get it that their days of colonial rule is long over and they do not have any role in meddling in other countries policies. IMO what is happening in HK is a natural consequence of its reversion to Chinese rule.

    Sure we may not like what dictators do within their borders, but do we have to destroy our own countries just because many of the people living there are unhappy with the changes. Most people in HK either moved there after the CCP took over China or were born there afterwards – there were only about 600,000 people in HK in 1948, the year before the CCP came to power, and most Chinese moved there previously over the years to gain benefit from the international trade that was generated by the then colonial master.

    Expect Morrison and Albo to comply with Boris’ request, at the expense of Australian workers, increased congestion and costs, and our long term independence.

    • Make a swapsies, we will take HK residents that oppose the CCP in exchange for all those currently staying here under influence of the CCP at a ratio of 1 to 1.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      There are still some weird vestiges. There was serious consideration of sending child-killer Jon Venables to Australia from the UK and for all we know it may have happened since they wouldn’t be advertising it when the whole idea was to keep him anonymous.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      If it’s 3 million, then they’d also have to move Buckingham Palace to Bris Vegas, sign over the Royal Navy, Marines and move the Lloyds HQ to Sydney. (At a minimum.)
      Probably throw in Harry as King of Oz and lose every Ashes match for 99 years.

    • truthisfashionable

      If the UK could please create an incredibly long stay youth mobility visa for Australians aged 30 to dead that would appreciated.

  6. Things are getting desperate…….they are calling out the Keystone Cops now

    If you unroll this fully you will see that militias are starting to appear on the streets. That is when you need troops on the streets, when the running street battles break out between rival militias a la Europe in the 1920’s and 30’s. As long as they machine gun people in an even-handed manner it is all good.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Geez, there’s obviously no fitness tests or like requirements needed

      • Going to the US is funny. I’m like an anomaly. Nearly 40 and no gut or no middle section bulging out. They just love bad food. Like love it, they talk about it like it’s a love story. They know all these places that serve some weird concoctions of bad food and make appointments to visit with friends to try it out. It’s a strange pass time.

      • Put it this way, the starting point for a reno is $150k for couples earning up to $200k or $125k for singles. Unless they have massive equity in their homes, it’s unlikely they’d be unable to afford a reno of this size. This also rules out reno’s outside of Sydney or Melbourne because in a lot of places you can buy a house for $150k or more. This is nothing more than being seen to be doing something when doing nothing.

        • tripsterMEMBER

          I reckon the most likely users are cashed up baby boomers with no income other than fully franked dividends.

        • I need to build a garage have put aside around $50-60k (USD has fallen back lately). I’d probably borrow another $50k. So let’s say I want to build an epic garage for $100k. I still won’t qualify for it. It just makes no sense to me. To have such a policy. Surely building a garage would employ tradies? Even if I only spent $50k.

  7. Realistically … how likely is a vaccine for covid 19 ?

    What is the success / failure history of virus vaccines development ?

    Ex-head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove says coronavirus ‘is man-made’ and was ‘released by accident’ – after seeing ‘important’ scientific report … UK Daily Mail

    … extract …

    … The research claimed that current efforts to find a vaccine would prove unsuccessful as scientists have so far misunderstood the true properties of Covid-19.

    Sir Richard suggested that the scientists at a laboratory in Wuhan could have secretly been carrying out experiments on bat coronaviruses when Covid-19 somehow accidentally escaped through a lapse in biosecurity.

    According to the former MI6 chief, the paper had been rewritten several times, and an earlier version apparently claimed coronavirus could accurately be called the ‘Wuhan virus’. … read more via hyperlink above …

  8. Interesting comment BTL in the smh on NSW govt to splash out more money for NRL stadia:
    If it was my call as PM, I’d be issuing AU$’s (as much as they need) and handing it to the NSW state government to refurbish the grounds and complete the stadium at Moore Park. I’d also be asking the other states and territories to look for large, useful infrastructure projects as well. And guess what Pete, it won’t cost the tax-payer a single cent – and it’ll go a long way in providing the jobs Australia is desperately in need of at this point in time.
    Pete, you need to read up on MMT and discover the truth about federal government budgets and the deficit myth.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Oh tosh. Josh has everything under control and tax revenues for the budget forecast will adequately pay down debt over the next ten years to the point where no one even remembers the COVID. I know, I’ve seen the books.

      Josh gets Treasury to keep them in the annex of the stable he keeps the unicorns in.

      • You missed the point. Use Google translate to translate it into absolute gobbledygook and read it again, noting the name of the contributor.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Dude, I have been scrupulous. Anything else isn’t my problem.

            For example when you were banging on about (heh) guessing what your neighbours were doing contemporaneously with your comment for the umpteenth time, at no point did I even contemplate the suggestion of replying: “Making spaghetti bolognese with pasta from scratch and a tomato sauce made from homegrown tomatoes?”. Not once. Really.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          I shouldn’t quibble, someone obviously has a spring in their step – and I should probably just stop pawing at this argument.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          PS It’s coherent, structured and intentionally ironic and simultaneously constructive. Literary analysis indicates your theory has holes… but I did learn one way cool fact about the latin name for a kangaroo. So appropriate for this place. So thanks for that.

    • Why do people comment on something they have not taken the time to even do a basic check of … especially when they use an inaccurate model to judge it by – ????

      Maybe some are still mired in libertarian/hard money thinking. The rich don’t “save” under a hard money currency system – they leverage their monopolistic/monopsonistic holdings of capital to gain maximum economic leverage for themselves. Standard Oil didn’t “save” its way to primacy – it spent to buy out its competitors to form a monopoly. IBM did the same for “computing engines”. US Steel. The list goes on and on.

      Then some think being clever is the same as being informed ….

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I have been tempted to have one or two hundred delivered to his house. But then I think to myself, what if I find I need one of my old ones for some unexpected reason? If the three upstairs all pack it in simultaneously for example.

      • The low-flow showerheads rile him.
        How to solve the problem of a low-flow showerhead?
        Where there’s a drill, there’s a way.

    • i like one of the reasons “they work less” yes and thats how its supposed to be, god forbid they destroy education and job prospects all in one go.

    • States don’t even have reciprocal agreements with interstate students, so if passed I can see this leading to a situation where international students from all over the country will end up being subsidised.

  9. The Traveling Wilbur

    So two wallabys and AJ walk into a bar, first wallaby walks up to the barman and asks for a beer. Sculls it and sits down. Second wallaby walks up to the barman and asks for a beer. Sculls it and sits down. AJ walks up to the barman and asks for a beer. Sculls it and tries to sit down but ends up bouncing all over the room. First wallaby turns to the second wallaby and says: “It’s the beer, must have been too many hops.”.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It was really just designed to prove that JR should be careful what he asks for. Really.

        PS Oban. 14. NOT cheap after all. Worth it. The Glenmorangie comparison seems valid. I’m guessing the bottom of the bottle likely holds a higher percentage of finish; even still, honey chardonay finish and full range of flavour on the way down. Nice. Importantly, relaxing.

        • Excellent.

          The reviews I read said it was “expensive but worth it”.

          Naturally I just presumed you were on a higher spending plane than the plebs at Masters of Malt 😉

        • Oban’s decent, certainly better than Glenmorangie, but I still can’t go past Isle of Jura…

  10. DingwallMEMBER

    Lol this has to be the most crazy sh!t …… who the hell would pile into cruiseship businesses….. people are goning to avoid the things like the plague ….. V shaped recovery ffs

    This ludicrous and relentless euphoria to BTFD has been spawned by central banks and ingrained into a generation of retail traders. Now betting the cruise ship industry will reopen this summer, and a V-shaped recovery would be seen in the near term.

    • I live near a small country town that a fair number of city retirees have moved to. You wouldn’t *believe* how many of these dumfcuks are hanging out to go on a cruise. I think the only commodity that can enjoy infinite growth on a finite planet is stupidity…