Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are once again oblivious to real world macro settings as the Dictator-in-Chief sends the USD plummeting against major currencies at a similar rate of decline of the US standing in the world. The RBA maintained its historically low interest rates, not going negative as many economists are pushing locally, while Bitcoin breached the $10,000 barrier, almost hitting the February high making it nearly the first “risk” asset to return to the pre-COVID19 crash level.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite finished with a minor lift higher by 0.2% to 2921 points, while the Hang Seng Index rose 0.8% to 23917 points. This keeps price well back above previous firm support at the 23300 point level, with daily momentum almost back to a positive value:

Japanese share markets were the standout again with the Nikkei 225 up another 1% to 22325 points, now in an extremely overbought condition, helped along by a weaker Yen. The USDJPY pair is slowly getting some traction, lifting above its own high moving average on the four hourly chart to the 107.70 level and matching the Friday highs:

The ASX200 had a modest session, gaining some 0.3% to 5835 points despite the Aussie dollar remaining just above the 68 handle for most of the session. The Pacific Peso is really gunning for more upside here following the RBA’s bold hold as USD weakness widens:

Eurostoxx futures are up 0.7% or so with S&P futures down slightly as the looting on Wall Street should provide some glass and plywood stocks a mild uplift. A commenter today said that a nuke could go off in Manhattan and Wall Street would still rally and with the US now moving into failed state mode as its military starts to occupy city centers, there’s never been a better time to buy!



    • I would say it’s 2008 all over again, but even that felt different to this. This feels like a bigger boil over than occupy Wall Street and I can’t help but feel it’s due to widening inequality. Corona Virus is just a side show.

      • Jumping jack flash

        2008 was the banks’ problem. They fixed that. Now this time its the people’s problem.
        Theres a few ways they can fix that, all similar to how they fixed the problem with the banks.
        It doesnt fix anything of course, but importantly it provides the illusion that things are fixed. The same as what they did to fix the banks.

  1. The US is a country of, by and for private property in all its forms, and is a portend of what’s to come for all states who seek to emulate its decaying dystopia.

    This ‘fascism’ is part of the natural process & end-goal of capitalism.

    • I bought quite a few.still sounds ok. Will be interesting to see what actually happened here.

      Hard to see gold going much lower at the moment…I think…El Trumpo just keeps making the US suck harder the more he does and says…

      • I visited the US for 11 years. Each year I went back I could feel the increase in inequality getting larger. I could see the homeless increase on the streets of San Francisco and LA and I just thought, what is it that keeps this joint together? Why do they feel they are still in the best country on the planet and why don’t they discuss the social issues in their society. I worked with many middle class folks, who never seemed too bothered to discuss the problems they see in their own country. Socialism is a dirty thought too. Haha.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Same situation as here, just a decade or so further along. The vast majority of the middle class (“Howard’s Battlers”) believes their success and comfort is largely, if not entirely, due to their own merit and that the downtrodden are there largely due to their own laziness/stupidity/choices.

          Also similar to here, those who disagree with this narrative (ie: think structural problems exist) are jeered, derided and dismissed.

          • The difference here is that we have had a very long expansion that covered all manner of ills.
            US had slowdowns every 8-10 years, GFC was a big one.
            But they seem to have a system that punishes the weak and rewards the strong to the point where there is no shame attached to it. In Australia the system has been tilted in that direction for the last 30 years and too far in my view, but at least once upon a time the idea of a fair go meant that relative poverty was OK but absolute poverty was a shock.

        • Jumping jack flash

          “Socialism is a dirty thought too”
          So many Australians dont get this important point, especially with regards to medicare, etc.

  2. happy valleyMEMBER

    Just about finished moving our ~$100k in deposits with RAMS (WBC) to another bank after RAMS decided effective Monday just passed, to chop their Reward Saver account rate by 0.45% pa in one hit, from 1.65% pa to 1.2% pa. Anybody else moving on from RAMS?

    • Moving a chunk out of the parent (WBC) to Rabobank, 2.25% for 4 months introductory. Macquarie at 2.26% for 4 months is another option.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Already a customer of Rabobank, so can’t avail myself of the introductory rate (plus have funds 5 other banks), and the Billionaires’ Factory not quite my cup of tea.

    • Wow! just look at it go. Judging by the current markets it looks like the economy is doing fantastic. I mean the markets represent the real economy right? I’m going to hit up my employer for a pay rise, businesses must be raking in the cash at the moment, they’ll have to give it to me.

    • Haha….I bought ASX: AUDS recently… Been great!

      Actually sold out today at around 68.0, thinking, ‘Wow, that was a ride too fast…time to take profit!’ … AUD is 68.5 as I write…!! Oops.

      • Not sure if you remember I called it for AUD to go up when hit the mid 50s and was told it’s not going to happen. My argument was because of commodities we have and stimulus from all over the world. Even if that stimulus does not happen to be commodities driven I knew it trigger AUD to go up as no one actually bothers to unpack where countries will plan to spend their money.
        But, once AUD hit 65c I thought it will run out of puff so, thanks to you, I found a way to short it.. brilliant idea.

        • Yep, YANK and AUDS are good products to make some decent coin out of AUD movements in the shorter term….I am now a reluctant trader, making a few trades per week – never thought, nor wanted, to be that way, but here I am…psycho markets…

  3. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    Has anyone heard from Rich/TotesBeWoke ? I’m genuinely concerned he has stroked out with his fascist-boner at Trump threatening to deploy the US military against US citizens on US soil.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        not on twitter mate. Social Media is bad for you – at a personal level (and a societal level)

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Tweets don’t kill people. Tweeters kill people.

          I expect that’ll be the slogan for the NIA for the 21st century.
          The ‘I’ is for Influencer btw.

    • Probably in hospital as they try to reduce that severe priapism. Typical right winger to need the state for health care. Ayn Rand is their guide.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Posted this on today’s manufacturing article.
    Battery Mega Factories currently planned to be operational by 2028:
    Asia (not China): 9
    China: 19
    Europe: 8
    USA: 4
    Canada: possibly 1
    India: possibly 1
    Australia: 0

    An electric vehicle needs 5 to 10 times fewer components than an ICE vehicle. A single supplier, such as Panasonic, can supply over 80% of an E vehicle’s components. That suggests the threshold for the collapse of ICE manufacturing is fairly low, given they have a complex supply chain with many small & medium component makers.
    Strategically, Australia should be building a couple of battery plants (Hyundai & Kia style) and a solar panel capacity.

    • Fvck mate, if the LNP had their way we’d be building steam engines for all occasions.

    • Young Australians with high abilities and talents in STEM leave Australia. It’s a silent but massive phenomenon that you rarely hear about.

      They go to Europe and USA where they are rewarded for their abilities and where they can learn more.

      Australia doesn’t value or reward STEM. Australia values and rewards boomers, the property / construction / destruction of the environment sectors, “exports” of education, immigration / slave importation / feminist programs for example to push girls into STEM even if they don’t have the ability or desire etc. etc. etc.

    • No idea. The danger is that they don’t because they don’t think they have anything to lose. That’s why you want people to have opportunities and safety nets and jobs and houses and families and what not. When they think that they’ve got nothing to lose they’ll act with that in mind.

      • Seeing some gang members defending their turf from rioters… they have more to lose than the average American

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      They will be scared when the tanks start rolling in.. This is what Trump said about Tiananmen Square.

      “When the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it,” Trump said. “Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak.”

        • Yes, I am sure that Trump remembers that the people his forces are shooting, and their families, will get to vote for somebody in November. But he seems to be betting that posing as a LaurenOrder candidate will attract more votes, especially in the finely balanced States that he needs, than the people he kills in Democrat strongholds. I hope he is wrong.

  5. bzunicaMEMBER

    And just like that, robodebt is gone. Albo – did nothing as expected. How disappointing

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Was it Shorten working behind the scenes who may have been in part why the LNP backed down on robodebt, for the time being? Meanwhile, Albo … ?

      Anyway, the LNP will probably be on the job in the morning blaming Labor for the apparent successful class action against the live animal export ban that might cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars? Chalk it up as one all – robodebt v. live animal exports?

      Move on, nothing to see here? Team Straya.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      He is called the Real Estate Prime Minister for a reason. House price to the moon!!

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        And he’ll be in for ten years as Albo is pathetic so is Gomer Pyle, they got nothin

    • Pfh007 has the right idea. Lift the tax free threshold. Increase the ability of people to spend. Especially those who would spend money if they had it. Funneling it into the non productive housing sector to keep a bubble inflated is not in the long term interest of the community.

        • Unfortunately. Maybe they could also throw in some reforms that stop housing being a speculative asset and decrease the price of property. Add a bit of social housing and things could be looking up.

  6. migtronixMEMBER

    “There’s always a tweet” should enter the lexicon as a pseudonym for hypocrisy.

    • Hmmmm what’s wrong with it, let’s ponder that. It’s against Police standard procedures. The risk of head injury that can lead to serious injury or death in such a manoeuvre is extreme. This country appears to have decided that risky manoeuvres that involve the head are completely unacceptable when conducted by a private citizen (see “one puch” laws). Are you seriously saying this is acceptable policing?

  7. so futures are up 155 points – on the back of what good news? Because they haven’t started blowing nuclear bombs in their own cities?

    • Market is just looking through the crisis phase into the rebuilding phase. Operative word for crisis was pandemic last month, this month it’s riots. Wonder what it’ll be next month.