In the Vicinity of doom

Lordy, this is what a commercial property crash looks like. Via VCX:

These are not run-down suburban malls we’re talking about. This is the Strand Arcade, Chadstone and DFO. With values down 11-13% in four months, you’d be hard-pressed to say that this is the bottom.

There has been some rebound in foot traffic but the future is still bleak with high unemployment baked in, sales structurally lower and the virus still a threat:

The quarterly NAB commercial property survey released a few weeks ago showed that retail was already in trouble:

Hotels and office will soon join the carnage. NAB and ANZ are most exposed:

Which helps explain why they most bid today of the big four.

Say what?

David Llewellyn-Smith
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