Easing lockdowns does not boost economy with more virus

Pretty simple maths that eludes the lockdown fear mongers:

In short, the virus does the economic damage not the lockdowns.

This is why Australian borders should remain watertight shut to international students, temporary workers and all other migrant segments.

It is not worth the risk.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        I know 20 families including mine on our way up in September/October!
        Don’t worry, you need the tourist dollars through those fun parks!!

        • Torchwood1979

          If the Victorian COVID-19 crisis doesn’t get adequately stomped on I can’t see Annastacia Palaszczuk sticking to the border reopening timeline, to hell if people have already paid. I hope the border does get reopened and people like yourself can travel freely, but I’m just pointing out the thinking of our Government.

          Up here “The border” has suddenly become a surprisingly patriotic and political symbol. The LNP are hammering Palaszczuk for keeping it shut, based on the rationale that it’s anti-business and anti-jobs. So far though, QLDers are happy to remain isolated if it keeps an internal state-based reopening underway.

          In general, I’d say QLDers don’t care much for the rest of Australia, and they probably don’t care much for us either!

        • DominicMEMBER

          The fun parks are struggling a bit but it’s almost impossible to get accommodation during holiday season up here on account of all the domestic demand. I know because I’ve had first hand experience.

  1. I doubt the US is an example of anything. Soft lockdowns, no lockdowns, BLM rallies, social unrest, masks, no masks, borders instrastate and international open, no quarantine. A mess.

    That said, keeping borders closed is the only way Australia can keep the virus at bay alas if you’re in Victoria, not even.

  2. kannigetMEMBER

    We need a balance, If we dont slowly progress towards herd immunity then we can never open the borders again. The virus will not die out until natural immunity has been developed or a vaccine. Unlike the influenza virus, No Corona Virus vaccine has ever been developed so dont hold your breath on that one.

    The rest of the world will slowly get to a point that they are 90% Covid experienced and we are not. If we open the borders in that situation then we will have mass deaths as quick as an LNP party member can latch on to a rort and blame labor.

    I think we may have overdone the lockdown, and quelled the spread too much. Now we have a combination of 2 outcomes and neither are really desirable. firstly we have a collection of loonies who think the entire thing was a lie and they vote. Second, we cooked the economy and now I fear we cant restart it with the current crop of political class, ALP or LNP.

    What I expect to happen is.
    1) JobSeeker will be reduced to normal with a little bit of cream on top, it will only effect the poor so all the aspiring rich wont care.
    2) UnemploymentHider will get turned off and people will stop spending as the reality comes to bite when all those on it lose their jobs.
    3) The LNP will go into panic mode and fast track some stupid projects like the fast rail and some more coal power loans to try and stimulate the economy.
    4) The pressure to open the borders back up will become immense because tourism and education need more spenders.
    5) Next to no one will arrive as the rest of the world is in major recession/depression/death spiral.
    6) Panic will hit in as more and more businesses fold and all those aspiring rich join the poor in the centrelink queue.
    7) The LNP will continue to blame the ALP while offering no actual plans because their ideology only consists of “the poor are scum to profit off and if it s bad then the ALP did it”.
    8) The ALP will say “Lookie, my friend from China velly good, he buy everything up, make big dollar for all”
    9) We join the US/UK in a war with someone in order to spend more lives and money without any real progress.
    10) Who knows…..

    At least I am still positive in my outlook.

    • Keep in mind that we are still learning about the virus, including how its affects seem to linger with people.

      Better to keep the borders closed until we know more, have a treatment (I’m not so optimistic about a vaccine), etc, etc.

      My 2c

    • Umm you need to do some research on herd immunity and coronaviruses and how that family of viruses is just a wee little bit different from ‘normal’ viruses and why SARS Cov2 is really bad news, esp wrt herd immunity.

      • kannigetMEMBER

        How about you educate me on what I said that was wrong? You can achieve herd immunity with all viruses…as long as it doesn’t mutate and you maintain the right level of antigens for long enough.

        I never stated anything about what it would take it even if it was possible with this wee beastie.

        So what did I say that was wrong?

        • I’m sorry if I interpreted anything that you said incorrectly, I didn’t intend to come across as aggressive. It appears that having survived a corona virus infection (not just SARS Cov 2) doesn’t seem to give lasting immunity, unlike many other viruses, or immunity for a length of time that would make up for the devastation of the long-term negative health implications many ‘recovered’ people appear to be suffering. To me it isn’t clear that herd immunity is even possible at this point in time, given the characteristics of corona viruses and that there is still so much we don’t know about the virus and it’s effects.
          This article explains about corona viruses in general and immunity post infection.
          https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965
          This video explains a new mutation that freaked the Chinese gov out, and that it appears that previous SARS Cov 2 infection doesn’t give immunity to this mutation
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B-rk5VUcLo
          (It’s a bit long but it is covered in the first half somewhere)

        • kannigetMEMBER

          All good, Sorry if I reacted aggressively as well. I have a bit of a short fuse lately with trolls etc declaring I need to educate myself.

          From my take on all of the detail in the second video you linked, there is a reason to believe that herd immunity is possible with the “original” Covid-19 strain IF enough of the population gets it in the right time period. Sure there are a number of people who seem to lose immunity to it over time, the actual percentages of this are still not known, so who knows.

          If it only takes 6 months for a mutation to occur then we will just continue to have wave after wave as each new strain takes hold. The fact it only took 6 months for a mutation to occur when there is still such a low spread of infection is a real concern.

  3. ian dawesMEMBER

    history point the way….during the Spanish Flu the states that locked down the tightest in the US, had the fastest and most successful opening of their economy….once the virus was under control.

  4. Isn’t the data suggesting that while infections rates are soaring the rate of hospitalisations is not growing as quickly? Meaning a weakening virus perhaps?

    Or are we perhaps just in the lagging phase between infection and pre-death sickness?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes. Or also, possibly, youngers is catchin’ the lurgi. And a lower % requiring hospitalisation.

      You know, due to not being so dependent on slow drip vitamin k and franking credit infusions.

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