Data dump mixed for Aussie GDP

The ABS has dumped a whole bunch of partial data which paints a mixed picture for March quarter GDP, which will be released tomorrow.

On the negative side, inventories declined by 1.2%, versus an increase of 0.3% last quarter. This should detract 0.4% to 0.5% from GDP:

On the positive side, the ABS expects a positive contribution of 0.5% from net exports:

Contribution to Gross Domestic Product
In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services surplus increased $2.3 billion, widening the surplus to $10.9 billion, with an expected contribution of 0.5 percentage points to growth in the March quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product.

And a positive contribution from government spending:

In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms compared with the previous quarter:

  • general government final consumption expenditure increased by $1,929m or 2.0%, and is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage points to growth in the March quarter 2020 volume measure of GDP
  • general government gross fixed capital formation decreased by $657m or -3.3%
  • public corporations gross fixed capital formation increased by $449m or 7.9%
  • public gross fixed capital formation decreased by $208m or -0.8%, which will not detract significantly from growth in the March quarter 2020 volume measure of GDP.

As usual, tomorrow’s GDP result is going to be a crapshoot and will hinge largely on consumption spending, which is unknown outside of retail.

Leith van Onselen

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