Coalition maintains tight Newspoll lead

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The latest Newspoll survey has maintained the Coalition’s slim electoral advantage.

While the Coalition’s primary vote is well ahead of Labor’s at 42% to 34%:

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It’s two-party preferred vote is only ahead by 2%, 51% to 49%:

However, COVID-19 has delivered a strong bounce in Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating. Two-thirds of Aussies are satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance versus 41% for Labor Opposition leader Anthony Albanese:

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Reflecting this, Scott Morrison is way ahead in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, 56% to 26%:

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What is perhaps most surprising here is that the Coalition is ahead by so little – within the margin of error – given it has been gifted the COVID-19 crisis, which should benefit incumbent governments if handled half decently.

These polls will be interesting to watch as emergency income support is dialed back and Australia’s economy fails to mount a strong rebound.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.