Classic Chinese building recovery underway

Monday, 15 June 2020

Given it is likely mostly lies, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese recovery is that it still looks like crap. Headline growth indicators are weak with industrial production up a lousy 4.4% year on year and still down -2.8% YTD. It’s even worse elsewhere with retail sales down -2.8% YOY and -13.5YTD. Fixed asset investment is still down -6.3YTD:

Digging into things a little, it’s still ugly. Empty apartment sales are down solidly YTD but turning upwards YOY:

Starts are likewise headed up:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.