Within today’s dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s March quarter national accounts release was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade unexpectedly surged by 2.9% in seasonally adjusted terms.
This result was unexpected because it contradicted both the RBA’s index of commodity prices, which fell by 2.3% over the March quarter:
As well as the ABS’ import/export price index, which also fell by 5.9% over the March quarter:
While the lift in the terms-of-trade is strange, it will help to bolster national disposable income over the March quarter. Not that any of this matters in light of the COVID-19 shutdown.