Australian dollar to blow-off then blow up

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

DXY was down overnight as EUR surges:

The Australian dollar is wow:

Goldis still poised but can’t break through:

Oil to the moon:

Even first managed a puff of dust:

Miners going vertical:

EM stocks vertical:

Junk vertical:

Bonds were soft:

Stocks vertical:

The AUD is now making stocks look pedestrian:

Westpac has the wrap:

Event Wrap

Germany’s coalition continue to debate a major stimulus package slated for early June with media suggesting in excess of EUR100bn of increases to household payouts, wage support and regional and business support.

UK April private credit fell to a record low -GBP7.4bn, below the average estimate of -GBP4.9bn, reflecting a sharp slide in mortgage approvals (from 56k on March to 15.8k in April) as well as consumer credit contraction. Household deposits rose sharply (+GBP16bn) in April, indicating greater savings propensity during the pandemic. Key will be whether this will fuel a lift in consumer demand as lockdown easing continues.

UK-EU post-Brexit negotiations resumed today, but the level of divergences in views and stances still appear too great to overcome by the scheduled end of discussion on Friday. However, there does seem to be an air of potential compromise from early media reports.
Although the EC Summit on 18-19th June was scheduled to address the progress towards a potential end of the current transition period, the heavy agenda now facing the Summit would suggest that there may be another Summit post the UK PM Johnson’s consultations with EC President von der Leyen later this month.

Event Outlook

Australia: The Q1 national accounts will be released. The opening quarter of 2020 was a tumultuous one – social distancing guidelines and travel restrictions disrupted activity, and business surveys reported a sharp drop in conditions over March. Westpac is forecasting GDP to contract by 0.4% in the quarter, leaving it just 1.3% higher than a year ago. Dwelling approvals are also out. Although approvals held up in March, this will not be the case in April. The lockdown, combined with an unwinding of the recent high-rise spike, could see an extremely sharp fall. Westpac is looking for a print of -15.0%. The May AiG PCI (construction) index fell 16.3pts in April, led by apartments and commercial building. At 11:10 AEST, RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock will speak on the evolution of banking and payments.

Asia: May Nikkei service PMIs will be released for Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India. China’s Caixin PMI is also out.

Euro Area: The April PPI is set for another contraction (market f/c -1.8%) which would drag the annual pace down to an estimated -4.2%yr. Alongside this, the unemployment rate for the bloc is expected to jump to 8.2%, with a further deterioration to follow in coming months.

US: Westpac anticipates that the ADP employment change will show 8000k jobs were lost over May. Factory orders (market f/c -13.4%) and durable goods orders (final, market f/c -17.2%) should confirm that investment and related orders cratered in April. Finally, the May ISM non-manufacturing survey is expected to reveal a modest recovery to 44.4.

This is not the post-GFC environment relived. It is something else altogether. It is pure bullish hysteria, printed up and distributed by monetary and fiscal authorities everywhere. Greed unleashed upon nothing. A fakeflation disconnected from all sense and sensibility.

Sit back and admire the sheer folly of it. The global recovery is worse than garbage. It’s non-existent. The v-shape is dead. We’re looking into an interminable climb out of the abyss lumbered by permanent, structural damage to demand, including Australia, plus a shunting shock to supply as China exits global supply chains.

Unemployment is huge. The violence of it is exploding. Earnings are headed to the gallows through 2021.

But, like the cleverly constructed mind-trap of faith and Christianity, the more doubts you have, the more virtuous belief becomes. Faith is its own reward. Problems equal stimulus. Accidents equal more money. Crises equal new sources of largesse.

Monetary and fiscal authorities, the high priests of fakeflation, are conducting a Jedi-like chorus of mass greed mind-control.

It is going to blow-off and blow up, Australian dollar included.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Naw, the central bankers have got this. Clever people with big printers – not only do they print all the money you could dream of, they print hope in abundance.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      “Clever people …”

      Nah, CBers are morally bankrupt people pure and simple. They’re there for the 1% or is it now the 0.1%? and themselves and mates, of course.

      • Blottridesagain

        EVERY university Economics faculty in the Western world, bar, probably, a few in Germany have preached this stuff. Printing money is fine; we don’t need no damned filthy factories; we don’t need no damned red neck farmers; we will all be more prosperous by all working for the government or being lawyers then we can all sit on our arses in coffee shops and restaurants; Our houses will be sources of momentous wealth.
        This was taught in the Economics faculty of Qld Uni back in 1970 and I have never seen it to be any different anywhere else in the Western world.
        We succumbed to this BS somewhere back before 1959. The US, being a great industrial power took a bit longer to divest itself but the rot set in somewhere in the late 70’s.
        This is like blaming the current Treasurer of Aus or a political leader anywhere for the current problems. Nothing will change by removing them because the core of the problem lies elsewhere and its cancerous growth has spread through our whole society.
        Indeed we are all complicit. We are (except for farmers and import competing manufacturers) all happy to follow the current economic and social model. It allows us to consume far more than we need or produce. We can have really groovy mobile phones that do all sorts of stuff that transfers mind blowing wealth to the likes of Bezos, Dorsey and Zuckerberg. We can all drive around in flash cars and utes – the Australian ones were nowhere near good enough for us. We LUUURRRRVe our imported coffee and the woke coffee culture is just great – we can sit around and talk about how evil every pruck but us is. We’re all at once supremely virtuous, superbly comfortable with unquestionable innate wisdom. We KNOW everything! How good can life get!

          • MB should give 50% scholarships to proper thinkers around here.
            The one line mob should pay double.

          • Comments that go against the editorial line are deleted so often that it’s hard to see why someone should pay for the privilege

          • Blottridesagain

            Listen!!!! Ebloodynough! I was a member of this site right from the beginning. However it has changed. it is NOT a business site. It is NOT an economic site. It is NOT a scientific site. It is a political site with little to no regard for economics, business or science. A quick read of its Links section every morning tells you what this site is about. The world is not so simple that all the opinion you need to read is the Guardian or the ABC with a bit of good ole Sydney centric stupid SMH thrown in.
            Now that is all the right of the creators of the site if that is the direction they wish to take it. That’s their business. Whether it is a smart thing to ban anyone who even mildly disagrees with the meme might be arguable, but that is also up to them.

            DE and DT used to provide some sanity around here but they dropped off long ago

  2. All so extraordinary times. Dont get your references to Christianity and faith. You are just being provocative.
    Read Tom Holland’s book Dominion for another perspective. Christianity supports sound reason and well functioning democratic secularism. You don’t get there (or any good outcomes) by ‘manufacturing feelings for humanity’ like progressive pretend. You actually have to care for actual people.. not like rioters.

      • Your comments are just snide. As the editor you should know it has negative intellectual content.

          • Cheers DLS. I don’t disagree the stereotypes you refer to are there, nor that you cant have a laugh.
            I don’t agree it is sound or helpful to broadly discredit Christianity and faith as ignorant – when at its core Christianity (does/should) promotes the dignity of all people, encourages learning through scepticism, has been/is a highly stabilising cultural and political influence and is itself amazingly well scrutinised and documented. It’s not about being faithful. Just acknowledging pros and cons.

          • surfbeach2536

            This is your site DLS so you have the right to say what you want and it is usually interesting to read your views whether or not I agree with them, my thoughts are that given the breath and scope of the articles written whether the name of the site is still appropriate or something such as MacroOpinions may be more suitable.

          • Stewie Griffin

            “But, like the cleverly constructed mind-trap of faith and Christianity, the more doubts you have, the more virtuous belief becomes. Faith is its own reward. Problems equal stimulus. Accidents equal more money. Crises equal new sources of largesse.”

            Blah ha ha ha ha ha hah

            Because your secular vision of everyone holding hands, praising diversity and singing Kumbi-ya is working out so well?

            Faith is its own reward is it Dave? Well I guess the secular faithful in Australia will just continue completely ignoring the division, the dysfunction, the corruption that their MultiCult faith delivers to the here and now, and some magical nirvana awaits us all in the future…. working out well for America.

            Religion is simply a social construct, and Christianity is the social construct of people who follow the teachings of a humble, hick carpenter – not some Religious class of Pharasis, not some son of wealthy Chinese merchant and not some Musl!m pedo war lord.

            And so what did Jesus preach? He mainly railed at the J3wish elite, repeatedly calling them hypocrites, vipers, lovers of mammon, and children of their father the Devil. He disrupted their dealings in the Temple and threatened their money lending. Of course they then falsely accused him, and threatened the Roman procurator, and thank to gaining the support of the secular barbarian crowed, managed to get him crucified at Roman hands.

            At its core Christianity was an anti-usury movement – Do you understand what word trespass use to mean? Debt. The Lords prayer is actually a pray against Usury – “Forgive us our Debts as we forgive those with debts against us” Yeah – nothing worth standing up for there…

            It isn’t faith in God that is there to save you and grant you eternal life, rather an acceptance of the teachings in living a productive and selfless life, for the betterment of your family and those around you that leads to eternal life.

            Maybe if you weren’t such a porky athiest in such a high risk category, then you might realise that life is hard and full of uncertainty. It is the recognition that sh!t happens and if you died tomorrow you have nothing to fear if you have lived a worthwhile life, as you would live on in the lives of the children and family you have raised and the values you have passed onto them, instead of being a trembling pansy hiding the basement, least an errant sneeze rob you of all you will ever measure yourself by – your own existence.

            Just calling it as I see it.

          • Good rant. A bit more casually raycyst than I would personally have it, but I can live with that.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            And so what did Jesus preach? He mainly railed at the J3wish elite, repeatedly calling them hypocrites, vipers, lovers of mammon, and children of their father the Devil. He disrupted their dealings in the Temple and threatened their money lending.

            Pretty sure that wasn’t the primary takeaway the late JC and his crew were hoping for.

          • Stewie Griffin

            Pretty sure that wasn’t the primary takeaway the late JC and his crew were hoping for.

            Maybe if you were a little more well read and slightly less narrow minded you might be able to come up with more than your de riguour empty snide remark.

          • Stewie Griffin

            Counterfiat, had honestly never heard or read of Charles Spurgeon before. Reading about him now on wiki he sounds like an interesting chap, what of his would you recommend I read?

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            I imagine one needs to be very “well read”, indeed, to conclude that the primary message Jesus preached was ‘watch out for the j3ws’.

          • Stewie Griffin

            You truly are the definition of an ignorant cum stain.

            Jesus himself was a J3w – do you understand what it meant to be J3wish back then? Simply to be a member of the tribe of Israel, but that was completely different from being a J3wish Pharisee.

            You see the Pharisee’s were the descendants of the J3ws who were captured by the Babylonians some 500 yrs BC, transposed to live in Bablyon and became instilled and familiar in the techniques of running an empire, which stretched right back to the Sumerians, which is the earliest known empire in the world.

            The J3wish religion as it is now, was codified in Babylon and then transplanted back onto the people of Israel, when the “j3ws” were released from their captivity in Babylon, and who returned to Jerusalem in the form of the J3wish pharisees and lorded it over the genuine J3wish people, of whom Jesus was one.

            “Then Jesus went into the temple courts and drove out all who were buying and selling there. He overturned the tables of the money changers and the seats of those selling doves. And He declared to them, “It is written: ‘My house will be called a house of prayer.’ But you are making it ‘a den of robbers.’”

            Matthew 21:12-13

            Day’s later the noble Pharasis (later to be called Rabbi’s) had him executed.

            The “J3ws” that Jesus was talking to all mainly became Christians, because that was a religion of the people, as opposed to a select chosen few – so I think if you knew context anything about the J3wish religion, anything about Christianity either for that matter, then you’d probably realise that Jesus was indeed saying “Beware of the J3ws” which is what the Pharisees mainly became.

            Weirdly enough, Martin Luther, the other great Christian prophet and founder of Protestantism also said much the same thing – where as you, DrSmithy MB’s resident know it all know nothing, founder of sweet F-all, compared to the those who founded two great branches of Christianity thinks there’s nothing to worry about because the Institute’s of Wealthy Entrepreneurs told you they were all okay.

            So tell me again about something you are pretty sure of, and I’ll be happy to school you a little further.


          • drsmithyMEMBER

            I’m pretty sure that straw man won’t be getting up any time soon. 😀

          • @stewie here are a couple of books.
            Morning and Evening (King James Version Edition)
            Avoid revised editions.

            Lots of free pdf’s around the place, and also collected works on DVD.



            There are cheaper versions on kindle.

          • Stewie Griffin

            Thanks CF – done and done.

            Perhaps time I explored a little more of my Protestant heritage.

      • Fake pride bent your brain.
        Foundations of bent society now flowering into rotten fruit.
        Even atheist secular Christians have more clue and acknowledgement of what underpins economic strength.

        • I’d modify this, by replacing “economic strength” with “a country in which one would like to live, rather than try to escape from”, like so:

          Even atheist secular Christians have more clue and acknowledgement of what underpins a country in which one would like to live, rather than try to escape from.

          It is trite to observe that the majority of global migration is to states that can be described as atheist secular christian states. And very little to mohammedan, Buddhist & other attempts at states.

          People vote with their feet.

      • BrentonMEMBER

        But, like the cleverly constructed mind-trap of faith and Christianity, the more doubts you have, the more virtuous belief becomes. Faith is its own reward.

        What a zinger! Potent

      • Lol. Thanks DLS, love your take, especially >the more doubts you have, the more virtuous belief becomes>.

        • Plus…Stewy Griffin wondering where you got that “trespass” means ‘debt’. Sites I looked up say it is sin in the eyes of God:

          In a biblical context, a trespass is going beyond the boundaries God has set. In other words, it is sin. In the Old Testament, there are several Hebrew words that have been translated as “trespass” depending upon the translation being used. All of the original Hebrew words carry the idea of sin, guiltiness, and wrong-doing.

          • Stewie Griffin

            The biblical foundations of the Lord’s Prayer, Luke 11:4 and Matthew 6:12 and 6:14, were written in part with reference to the j3wish seventh-year laws (shmitah). They require that after every six-year period, financial debts be relieved and the land lie fallow (Deuteronomy 15:1-3):

            The material connotation of the word ‘debts’ in the Lord’s Prayer,” Trocmé wrote, “was so obvious that Jesus thought it fitting to add a commentary to the prayer, to explain that the words concerning the debts also applied to ‘trespasses’ in general.”

            Trespasses being general wrong doings. Trespasses, Debt and Sin all have similar origins – one of the ‘magical’ things about Judaism is the double think prevelant in the language usage and its written form – Hebrew is a language without written vowels, which provides a useful cover for plausible deniability should anyone attempt to interpret their scrolls without proper ‘guidance’.

            Without going into too much detail the below link is a reasonable summary of the relationship of debt to early Christianity, I’m sure you’ll find further phrases or concepts to google on further if you are interested.


    • First Amendment

      Your comments (and your faith) are not grounded in any sort of reality

      Christianity is the basis of democracy and logic now ?

      Someone should tell the ancient Greeks
      Or that Galileo guy

      • You have no idea about the role that christianity has played in the history of humanity.

        You are foolish to deride christianity. It is immensely important as a cultural phenomenon. Quite apart from the question of whether the godhead exists, is one or is three or any other theological debates.

        • First Amendment

          I don’t believe I ever denied Christianity had a role in human history

          Its had a very large role (often a negative one)

          I said it was not the basis of logic or democracy, which is objectively true since both existed a thousand years before Christianity

          • BrentonMEMBER


            Ridiculous to assert that Christianity is the basis for Democracy. The arrogance of the ‘faithful’ in claiming ownership over everything they deem virtuous… apparently, even Democracy ffs.

          • I think we agree, doc, but the brevity of this medium makes it seem initially like we disagree.

            Logic and democracy can of course be traced back to classical Greece and you are right that christianity has many negative influences over time (including through christian theology violently suppressing the same logic and democracy).

            And yet, at the end, christianity has proven to be most compatible with both. Mohammedan arabs and Buddhist (at the time) Indians had copies of everything that was produced in the golden years of the Greek civilisation and yet their conduct and history proves that those cultures repressed logic and democracy even harder than christianity did.

            So christianity may be the “least bad” cultural influence, in that sense, but that’s all we have.

            It would be foolhardy to discard it or even disregard it.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            The democracy of a few thousand years ago is not the same as the democracy of today.

      • Christianity lays claim, and appeals, to the universality of principles that are fundamental to civilisation, our ingenuity and the dignity of all people. This wasn’t true in the same holistic way of pagan Rome and Athens if you are a student of history.
        Paul successfully argued the universality of this in his letters and died for it. The legacy is it doesn’t mean as a secularist you have to believe Christianity. But if you are going to discredit Christianity, you’d better conjure up some greater purpose for universal dignity of people than what other great minds have failed to do (without going mad.. i.e. Nietzsche, Satre).
        Tom’s book is honest too on the failures of the Christian religio-political class. But honest students will also observe it was people of faith and reason Galileo and Luther, Jan Hus etc who prove more than effective foils to religious arrogance.

          • Hill Billy 55

            Another interesting perspective is “Religion for Athiests” by Alain de Botton. As a Christian , I am ashamed to say that it was this book that really woke me up to the breadth and depth of what Christianity has offered the world in structure and the meaning of our lives. Holland’s book certainly seems worth the read, thanks.

          • ChinajimMEMBER

            Indeed it does. Just ordered the hardback. And I guess I’m an atheist secular Christian.

          • Blottridesagain

            The Hero’s Journey by Joseph Campbell is a really really good book. However you have to be damned determined with some time on your hands.

    • Blottridesagain

      Well said madzz. I’d also offer my opinion that the good people, of even simple faith, that I know are wonderful good hearted generous types who really do work for the good of their community.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      He is spreading the love around… he mentioned the Jedi faith too and often talks about the big one…real estate

      • First Amendment

        Hey David

        How about you refund my money if you’re going to nuke my account . I haven’t breached any of your comment rules so I would think that it’s unlawful
        Or should I do a credit card chargeback?
        Contact ASIC?

        Your contact form doesn’t seem to work and there are no other contact details listed


        • Lord Winchester Entwhistle

          Strictly speaking if you paid for a 12month membership but that was terminated the service has not been provided. You call your credit company explain what has happened and ask they charge back for that purchase .

          Failure of consideration. If it was paid with a Visa you need to invoke this within 120 days of the event, for MasterCard 540 days.

  3. At least monetary policy can’t get any stupider — right? Actually, there’s still one pill left to take, mass helicopter money.

  4. “It is going to blow-off and blow up, Australian dollar included”

    12-18 months?

  5. Australian dollar has followed the Chinese economy with its V-shaped recovery in a perfect mirror.

    Hard to acknowledge reality David – but Asia is now the richest region on earth, not America, not Europe – Asia and China leads that by a massive margin.

    Australian dollar and miners is a direct reflection of the new world order which is Asia – I honestly think its time you accepted the basic reality staring everyone in the face. The United States is collapsing, its only economic output is the Federal Reserve printing money while China is making an absolute mockery of the US.

    Keep saying it – China is going “ex-growth” – but its not. Its just blatantly not happening while the US is collapsing. In the meantime European and American manufacturers are fleeing to China where there is progressive economic approach to business rather than incumbent monopolies restricting all business practice.

    The riots in the US have ended any moral or ethical “high ground” the US or UK had on China – the UK with its history of colonialism never had any to begin with.

    Time to face the facts.

    • Yeah, most people say China is screwed because of its demographics, but that’s mostly BS immigration propaganda, the type they use on us as well, to make us consent to the intolerable. China is one of the best placed countries for future success. That may be bad for Australia but it is true. Riots like these would simply never happen in China (even the HK riots are much more civilised), and not just because China is authoritarian but because Chinese people have more social cohesion than the US by a huge margin (although still well behind Japan).

      They would be doing even better if not for Xi’s incompetence and strongman-ism. If he goes and China returns to technocrat rule then they’ll get back on track to their old trajectory of emerging hegemony.

      The China doom scenario is even less credible than the many other doom scenarios that just refuse to eventuate. They’re not going away.

      • ChinajimMEMBER

        Yeah, nah. Chinese history, even recent history over the last 70 years indicates the culture is not quite as stable as it may presently appear.

        Totally agree with getting rid of Xi. He has done much damage with his egotistical “Chinese Dream”, an unfortunate choice of phrase when you consider it has an opposite in to which it could easily turn.

        • Agree. Plus their environment is stuffed and they’re out of water and have no oil. Neither will the US have oil now, so Russia and OPEC will hold all the cards, as ever.

      • Floyd's Rap Sheet

        China monitor their citizens and will ruin your life through the social credit system if you say or do anything that threatens the CCP total hold on society. They disappear anyone that says anything critical of the regime.

        The US is a relatively free society where the media can say what it likes about its rulers, the police, protest in the streets and the police will use minimal force. No tanks running citizens over.

        China importantly doesn’t have an underclass responsible for 55% of its crime either. China would send America’s minority to “re-education” camps.

    • China’s government harvests human organs and conducts Nazi style experiments and engages in atrocious human rights violations and torture.

      China is going ex growth, you China shill.

  6. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Markets can’t ignore fundamentals, just delay them. Sectret is making the money in dreamland and be out when the realistic nightmare emerges. Most mornings the last 3 weeks i’ve almost sold my remaining stocks and they keep going up so I delay. That is most people’s mistake eventually.

    • Blottridesagain

      🙂 I clearly see myself in your comments. If we thought clearly like Reusa we’d have been in Z1P for the last few months instead of this negative downwards tripe 🙂

  7. codeazureMEMBER

    “Greed unleashed upon nothing. A fakeflation disconnected from all sense and sensibility. Sit back and admire the sheer folly of it.”
    That is an awesome way to summarise this collective insanity. Or maybe you could say:
    “Look on my Market, ye Mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains.”

  8. “Sit back and admire the sheer folly of it.”
    How about maybe you’re wrong?’
    I could sit back and say how the world *should* work. But understanding how it actually works and trading off of that is more profitable.

  9. reusachtigeMEMBER

    The problem with this blog, and most of its commenters, is that you believe in what should be, from your perspective, and not what is, from everyone else’s. Boom times ahead, that is 101.1% guaranteed!

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      There is nothing wrong with commenting on what things are and what the should be.
      From this people should get a wider view angle in order to best place their chips.
      Your comments, amusing as they are, simply comment to the status quo and add nothing but knowing nods and grimmaces.
      We all know this debt model can’t continue forever, and it would be nice to know that type of forum exists when it unwinds.

      • Blottridesagain

        You obviously weren’t around way back in time when MB were predicting the imminent collapse of the RE market MP or no MP, lower interest rates or not. Reusa was one of the contrarians at that time – a serious commenter. The response the contrarians got sent him over to the Dark (dark humour) side. He, understandably, rarely crosses back. He’s added more to this site one form and another than all those who you probably think are the local intellectual heroes.

        • Reusa seems much loved.
          Reminds me of ZH’s own MDB – MillionDollar_Bonus – his gallows humour was superb – and the rednecks on ZH were not impressed. He wore his negs with pride – such is the way of the contrarian.

        • Goldstandard1MEMBER

          Hold on champ.
          I said he was amusing and simply comments that the status quo will continue. You agree.
          The debate that is being had is if that can and/should continue.
          I’m simply saying it can’t. Why take offense as I didn’t attack him? Sheesh you must be worried about property prices falling. Strap in!

          • Blottridesagain

            My abject and sincere apologies. I totally misinterpreted your line that he wasn’t adding anything.
            Truly sorry!!!

  10. The bulls are roaring genius alongside side their government injections, perma-bears are covering and starting to riot based on the contrarian logic fallacy. History tells us that this divergence ends with a re-basing ‘shock’ up or down in a material fashion… Waiting for the Sydney NYE final firework explosion. Flip a coin either way….