AUD is pushing higher today:
Bonds are range trading:
XJO is stalled despite strong offshore leads:
Big Iron is up:
Big Gas is down:
Big Gold is off and running finally. Will the great ball of Millennials buy it?
Banks meh:
Big Chunt is so overvalued not even Nasdaq records can fire it up:
By rights, a global tech rally should leave Australia behind.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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Macro Afternoon
Bit of a nothing session here for stocks in
Macro Morning
By Chris Becker Exuberance is exceeding
Macro Afternoon
A bit of drama to keep us traders
Will yield curve control drive new stock bubble highs?
Some charts from BofAML: What is remarkable
where’s the USD gold price heading?
Think still in a range, 1500 to 1900, I expect the USD to start moving higher (maybe DXY weekness first)
Be careful rushing into gold here, it’s come a long way in last 12 months
Think you’ll get a better chance to buy – not sure about AUDGOLD 2300/2400 probably low for 3,000
We are going to test GFC lows in ASX200, it’s going to be an absolute bloodbath….. maybe higher first but equities on every global index is going down hard
ASX 200 not sure if we touch into, 2,000s, 3,000s more likely
7190 high /2 = 3590 take off another 10% for these extreme idiotic moves, 3231 i think we will come close to
It’s going to drag the AUD into low 50s
OK sounds serious, can you tell me what date you expect this to occur?
What do you think I’m Jesus Christ …
H2 20 we will see the low
another reason to buy gold and aussie gold miners… RRL and SAR going nowhere today which is quite odd…. the explorers like DEG and BGL however are shooting the lights out…. Gold to US$2K/Oz by end July
I’d be careful being long any gold related equities
Actually any commodity based equities
We are going to see deflation first
The Ponzi lovers are trying to hold off the deflationary crash
Nature is too powerful
The crash comes first
Then the buying opportunities
Make sure you have dry gunpowder
Long term fantastic
As USD rises and equities fall you’ll buy mining equities much much cheaper
What’s the better buy out of DEG / BGL?
@ Denis, I wish I knew, however DEG have found what appears to be 3 to 4 million Oz that one could almost scoop up out of the ground with a spade… its looking good…
BGL have assembled what looks like a killer team from the NST old-days… if its to be a NST Mk II then its worth a punt on that alone… but their asset is a proposed re-start I think… DYOR!
Australia is one of the best placed countries in the world right now.
Yes for beaches fresh air and doctors, not the economy
Our economy is a disaster
Compared to what? We’re going to be strongest in the western world.
USD is reserve currency
Safe haven
Nothing has changed
You are very brave to bet against the USA
I’m not betting against the USD until the end of time. All I’m saying is the Aussie dollar will have an 8 in front of it before it has a 5.
I think so too – our natural resources are a gift from the gods. What more could you ask for!
Maybe but don’t be foolish to think we aren’t going to have the major crash first
I’d buy AUST in the cinders
We are going to burn down first
Then get on board as we rebuild away from the Ponzi
Solid 2 years away until the buying opportunities come
Anyone long anything now is going to get nuked
I’m afraid if we do crash, we will not move away from the Ponzi, if anything, it will accelerate it.
Not sure about the fx forecasts, bro, but you’ve got me on asx oversold. Didn’t think I’d get another opp to move all to cash, which I did yesterday. Picking the bottom will be difficult and the stick in your bearish forecasts is the stock of money earning nothing and the huge flows of new money to the rich. Since when did the ‘market’ last look at price and earnings; they’ve been decoupled from reality for quite some time
Start preparing for the BIG SHORT AUSTRALIA
“The sequel”
It’s going to make the Q1 2020 falls look like the teddy bears picnic
Still don’t get the hang of you here. Gold was good two weeks ago, and now not so good???
Or are you just saying AUD is bad, so, Gold in AUD is good right now, but not Gold in USD?
Divya
Over 5 years I believe gold will be much higher possibly through $3,000 USD….. where is the AUD then let’s say 60c, I think AUD might be 50c
So I believe in 5 years Gold long long much higher maybe 6,000 AUD
Over 2/3 month type period I think gold is in a range 1500/1900…..I think we may be a short term high for a pull back in USD maybe 1500s1600s
Gold in AUD think 2200/2300/2400 type area is a very good buy
So if you own say a small amount of gold let’s just say 4 ounces 10k AUD, just leave it for 5 years plus just leave it and forget it, but don’t forget where you hide it
If you are larger and a medium type trader and want to buy larger amounts in USD then I’d wait for 1500s, I wouldn’t chase it
Divya what I’ve said is if you are in your 30s say and your parents have brainwashed you that you have to own a home
Rent and use your stamp duty to buy gold – who cares if you pay 2300 or 2500 2600 in AUD price
If you are larger and trade in USD it makes a difference if a big player trades $200k to 500k and is waiting for a level to buy or hold physical and needs to hedge
I think gold in USD is near a high for a pull back 1800s back to 1500s
If you own a small amount in AUD forget about it, I cannot see it going back under 2,000 per ounce
I thing gold is stronger than AUD, that is i can’t see gold in USD falling more than 10/15%
I can see AUD falling 15/25%
So I think GOLD price in AUD has limited downside
Sorry confusing I’m talking different strategies time frame
If you have 20k in the bank I’d buy 4 ounces for 10k and not even look at the price for 5 years
Does that make sense
GOLD AND USD ARE KINGS (AUD USD etc don’t seem to have a big correlation)
Is that clear ?????
Classic heading from Markets Live on the SMH website……Meagre? The pile of crap should not even be where it is……… instead they expect a rocketship fueled by…………….. nothing more than hot air.
Not hot air, central banks printing.
Yep hot air
I’m afraid its very much real, and flows through to asset prices.