What happens if the yuan starts to fall

There are two reasons to think that it will. The first is that the Chinese recovery is terrible and the PBOC has already mooted more aggressive easing.

The second is that the trade deal with the US is all but dead, via Nordea:

…the trade deal between US and China was stone dead from the outset, as e.g. the USD 32bn increase in agricultural purchases (from a base below USD 10bn) was almost practically impossible to implement due to low commodity prices. When Corona entered the lime-light (maybe China already knew about Corona by the time of the signing ceremony), it was essentially 100% certain that none of the thresholds in the trade deal would be met.

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