We must push Angry China all the way

CCP mouthpiece, The Global Times, yesterday threatened Australian iron ore exports in the latest amusing twist in the China spat. I would quote it for you but the site is down. Has Australia has been geo-blocked?

This is a nice measure of how toothless the CCP regime is. It sources 85% of its imported iron ore needs from Australia. This ore drives the steel and empty apartments complex which is China’s only remaining (and counter-cyclical) growth driver. It is thus the foundation stone of CCP power given it is the key to employment.

If the CCP were to cut it off in any measure it would immediately send the iron ore price to the moon, smashing into China’s terms of trade. Indeed, if it were to boycott supply of any magnitude, the immediate shortage would be so vast that Australia would make more money than we can possibly imagine. The only other supplier of size, Brazil, is on its knees.

Sure, GDP would fall a bit, but we’d be much richer.

The truth is, China can’t do squat to Australia on trade. Commodities would get shipped to other customers that don’t bully, insult and bluster in return.

Any cut off of tourists and students will be offset by a lower Australian dollar and be made up elsewhere over time.

More to the point, this is coming anyway so we might as well test what it looks like under a modicum of our own control while we have international support. The Chinese economy is a slowly collapsing ponzi scheme in demographic, development and financial terms. It is not opening to the globe. It is closing.

It began in 2017 with capital controls to prevent capital flight. They are permanent and so, therefore, is the isolation of CNY.

In 2018, it nudged into politics as Australia discovered and pushed back against the tide of clandestine CCP bribes and influence. The same happened in the US.

Last year it moved to trade. That has been given a big step forward by COVID-19, which will drive global supply chains out of China at an accelerating pace. How can a major firm risk exclusive production there for consumers at home that are at risk of boycotting everything Chinese?

Now, we are seeing it nudge more into geopolitics as China refuses to make an account for the virus and its handling of it. It blockades and bribes international institutions and corrupts the working order of the global rules-based system.

CCP China is on the retreat. This is its Chernobyl moment. Only worse. The USSR sacrificed its young men to plug that spewing nuclear boil. The CCP’s toxic influence is exposed by a bio-radioactivity may return every Winter forever, permanently shaving global life expectancy.

There needs to be an account for it in Australia’s health, economic and strategic interests. If this stress tests the relationship and decouples us then so be it. It is coming anyway.

Bravo to standing tall against the CCP. Via The Australian:

Foreign Minister Marise Payne has rejected claims the tone of the China debate is being led by hawkish Coalition backbenchers, declaring Scott Morrison and herself were “carefully” leading public discourse on the issue.

Senator Payne said Australia would push on with its call for an inquiry into the source of COVID-19 as her handling of the China relationship has come under criticism from Labor.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne is playing down suggestions Australia is on the brink of a trade war after China suspended imports from four abattoirs. The decision raised con…

“I think the tone is being set very carefully by the prime minister and by me in my capacity and other ministers who are engaged on these issues. And I think that we will continue to do that in an appropriate and considered and determined way in Australia’s national interests,” Senator Payne told Sky News.

“It is not necessarily for me to have a public argument with the opposition on these matters even if that is what they want.

“It is a very important relationship but it is important to both countries and I think it is important that we don’t forget that. It is a valuable relationship for Australia, it is a valuable relationship for China.

“And from time to time we do have to deal with differences and Australia will always approach those in our national interests.”

Senator Payne defended the right of government backbenchers to be strongly critical of Beijing.

“Members of parliament from whichever side of the policy they are from have the right and the opportunity to make statements of their own,” Senator Payne said.

“One of our basic values is the importance of free speech. I would ask any parliamentarian to be considered in the approach they take on whatever issue might come before the parliament.

“But the values of a liberal democracy, of which we are part, are pretty fundamental. In fact that is not qualified, they are fundamental.”

And more:

One of the nation’s most powerful unions has urged the Morrison government to “hold its nerve” in defence of Australia’s sovereignty, as China targets exporters in a pressure campaign against nations supporting a global investigation into the COVID-19 pandemic.

Countering criticism of the government from Anthony Albanese and state Labor governments, the Australian Workers Union has told Scott Morrison not to ­“capit­ulate” to the communist state’s gaming of international trade rules.

In a letter sent to the Prime Minister on Wednesday afternoon following China’s suspension of meat exporters and threats to slap tariffs on barley producers, AWU national secretary Daniel Walton said: “Australia should resist any attempts to be bullied.”

And down with the cringers and grovelers:

Australia should not be spooked by the growing trade dispute with China but both sides should avoid “megaphone diplomacy”, a leading business group has warned.

The Australian Industry Group’s call for cool heads to prevail comes as the trade minister, Simon Birmingham, tries to arrange a call with his Chinese counterpart amid fears the tensions could spread to other sectors reliant on trade with China.

Still more:

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan said he had contacted Mr Morrison to offer his help in easing tensions with China, adding it was critical not to “jeopar­dise” relations with key trading partners. Mr Albanese and senior opposition MPs joined the Labor states in pressing the government over tensions with China.

The Opposition Leader, who backs the independent review into COVID-19, said Labor agreed that “Australia must always stand up for our national interests”.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, whose state is home to three of the abattoirs suspended by Beijing, said China was “an incredibly important trading partner”. “What I am concerned about is the potential for a trade war to erupt,” she said.

Down especially with Ponzi Pallas, who would sell his mother for a few yuan more:

The Victorian Labor government has taken a swipe at its federal Liberal counterparts over their dealings with China in the COVID-19 crisis, blaming ‘inelegant interventions’ for this week’s loss of trade in barley and meat.

Treasurer Tim Pallas backed pursuit of an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus on Wednesday but warned that the “vilification” of China would be “dangerous, damaging and irresponsible”.

CCP China is on the retreat. The anger we are seeing in its howling ‘wolf wanker’ propagandists is an expression of that.

In 2006 when The Diplomat interviewed Peter Costello and asked him how we should reconcile a free market system with political tyranny he replied that the former would ultimately reform the latter.

This line of reasoning underpinned the entire Western engagement with Chia’s rise. But it was wrong. Diametrically wrong. If allowed to, the CCP will corrupt liberalism itself.

The China normatives are changing and the wise will change with them.

We must push Angry China all the way.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. You mean “Australia delusional in expecting normal trade amid tensions with China”?
    Yep, you may be geo-blocked, all available from SG.

      • Stormy Waters

        They’ve geoblocked Australian IPs. Just flicked around a few countries using VPN:
        – works in Sing
        – works in US
        – works in NZ

        So interestingly it appears to be a message to others not to push back on China.

        Hillariously claims that “economic interdependance between China and Australia is not high”. Goes to lengths to point out that China is willing to accept differences with Japan (important to China’s supply and sales chains), India (large potential market), US (huge economic scale), but not Australia as it’s replaceable.

  2. Agreed, but the timing is wrong. As I said before, need to more Machiavellian about it. Put resources (sic) and structural changes in place first, keep the CCP and its hangers on “happy” and obfuscate the change diplomatically, then decouple..
    Instead, by stirring the hornet’s nest, the current narrative has devolved into “I’m gunna getcha for doing this!” “youre being racist” and so forth without actually debating and then pushing forward the structural change.
    i.e stupid politics as usual, not smart politics and diplomacy, which is required to defeat the CCP.

      • Yeah. A mask of BAU to cover behind the scenes manoeuvring is way too subtle for the idiots who run Australia. Some shennanigans are required to set things in motion.

        • Do you think it’s only idiocy? I think all the cash that sits behind appeasement requires significant ructions for any meaningful course correction. Subtlety means nobody is watching and money wins.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        If some of those eggs include China closing trade thru the South China sea we will come to a full stop in less than 3 weeks.
        By full stop I mean no electricity, petrol, food or potable water, then we will experience what full lockdown really means.
        There is a recent ( last month) report on this by our mlitary planners, but I do not have a link.
        If your analysis of China’s demise is correct, and I am not saying it is not, we will be dealing with a CCP that is desparate. They fear unemployment and social upheaval.
        There are reports coming out of China about the ramp up in nationalism , we see the rateching up of jingoism.Remembering that their are over 1.2 million chinese folk resident here.
        Also seen a recent report on the state of the US navy. Apparently 4 of their 10 Aircraft carriers are out of action due to te Virus.
        If the same goes for their sub fleet they may not be able to counter a serious China threat in the SCS.
        How hard should we push China ?

        • Stormy Waters

          China shutting down the SCS is the start of an open world war. There’s plenty of ways they can hurt us without bringing that kind of damage on themselves.

        • I’ve got to ask who’s really doing the pushing? We asked One fair question (which could’ve been done in a more private manner to stroke their jutting glass jaw) & they’ve not shut up since……. on the offensive on a Global scale. Methinks they doth protest too much.

          Now I’m off to buy some candles & a solar panel……

      • Peter SMEMBER

        David,

        I wonder if you have been subjected to a loss of control attack on your e-mail system or any other hacking?

        I have certainly seen it with +860 emails with Chinese characters flooding the inbox!

    • I’d prefer a more subtle way too. But I doubt we have many who are forward looking enough to be Machiavellian about it. Timing will always be wrong & without enough impetus nothing will ever happen. Like it or not, the Catalyst is Now while we still hold some of the cards.

        • I tend to agree but I wonder if he’s too $undermined$ & out of his depth for this situation. Maybe we’re lucky he’s not the puppet master on this one.

          • Yep.
            It feels like we’re moving closer to one of those eras that require a Churchillian personality, a man/woman of the moment, charisma in spades. Someone to align the will of a nation to unite and make a sacrifice for a better future.

      • ChinajimMEMBER

        The CPC don’t do subtlety. They don’t do it.

        And never forget the iron clad law – those who live by the shoeshine, die by the shoeshine.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      The tricky bit for straya in trying to get resources in place to decouple is that the CCP is heavily infiltrated
      widely across all aspects of the nation now.
      They will work hard to disrupt and frustrate any such efforts . Hell. we can’t even prevent the takeover of our children’s homes …..(admittedly that’s largely helped by the greed of my generation)

    • Agree. Timing is wrong, but it’s not of our choosing, the CCP kicked this off. The worrying thing for me is that I read this as a sure sign things are bad in China (or for Xi) so they are directing attention/anger outwards. They are planning a big military op in SCS, do they think now is the time to take another island or oil rig etc as they think other countries less likely to sanction them while their economies already under pressure & short of China sourced goods, so now they would have max leverage?

      • John Howards Bowling Coach

        You need to understand China at a far greater level to understand the true timing of this. The reality is that right now the CCP need to pump prime their domestic economy as they have lost their export trade source of $USD as much of their exports are either slowed or gone for good due to supply chain risk awareness. Given that they are seriously screwed because no one will trade with them in $RMB (below 1% of global trade is settled in $RMB although I think I read recently that even BHP is currently considering it, meaning I presume China is in heavy default on their terms of trade with BHP, who won’t want to see their trade slow further, so might be forced into a silly move). Anyway China needs $USD to buy oil and most of what they need to keep the wheels turning and to keep the people working and not plotting another revolution as their lives have rapidly gotten worse. The biggest fear of the CCP is in fact their own people rising against them as this is how they came into being in the first place. Their only real promise to their people is we won’t give you freedom but with keep you on the path to prosperity. If they fail on that front, who knows how long the people can be held down even with complete social monitoring of the entire nation.

        So where they find themselves right now is in urgent need to redirect any domestic demand from imported goods to domestic goods. The CCP is actively preventing their people from consuming imports, this is reported to me by friends in China right now. So while we might all be in a panic they are mad at us and threaten to stop beef imports from AUS for example, that is happening anyway. They are just using that fact for their usual games and lies that they can hurt us. The reality being they have no foreign currency to pay for imported goods right now, it is being used to try to keep them afloat, and they also urgently want to prop up their own economy by redirecting consumption to locally produced goods away from imports.

        So don’t listen to what they say, watch what they do, and understand why they are really doing it. Almost everything they say is a lie anyway, that is the nature of the beast.

    • Australians are generally lazy when things are easy as they have been relatively over the last 20 yrs ….
      But when the sh*t is returning at us after hitting those fan blades we can become quite focused , and ingenious.
      It needs to go bad before it will come good….. history beckons

    • Ajaydee73MEMBER

      I agree. They’ve sneakily infiltrated our country. We should sneakily gain independence from them. “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” -Sun Tzu, The Art of War

    • I agree we need to reorient supplý chains away from adversarial governments (China doesn’t have to be in that camp but acting like it at present). We need to bring and sustain more manufacturing here for things that we can, and maintain a strategic reserve for things we can’t. We have been complacent re oil, pharmaceuticals and China’s ability to be capricious where it sees for itself an advantage. Clearly that needs to change, and supply chains need to move away from China. Diplomacy needs to bring other nations along on the same view. China’s economic coercion is being applied to all nations globally, they are not a trade partner prepared to work in the collective security interest, and therefore a suitable response would be to substitute away from their manufacturing. The nutty thing in this is that China’s behaviour retrospectively justifies Donald Trump’s response to them and compels other countries to fall in behind him on this one … for once the mad El Dotard was right. Whocoodanode?

  3. Why aren’t we talking to every ally we have with a steel mill?

    At the end of the day, China’s only the cheap source because they get the ore. If they don’t get the ore, someone else will be.

  4. Job Seeker/Keeper etc will cost the national balance sheet $130b

    The Market Cap of BHP, Rio and Fortescue is $76b $30b $37b = $143b

    Why couldnt we just nationalise the iron ore producers at current market rate, therfore protecting shareholders

    Then cut off supply to the CCP

    The national balance sheet has capacity, and we would atleast get a productive asset at the end.

    F*ck em

  5. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    It’s perfect timing to side with USA against them and grow trade ties with others.
    They need our iron ore once they start building again.
    I actually am struggling to see how this doesn’t end with some kind of war with China Vs West. They are waging war under the surface and the west won’t take it much longer. I mean we took it when they were buying our stuff, but if that stops……..

    • Yeah agreed. They have a single aircraft carrier to project force right now, but are building fast to become a global power on the ocean. If we’re going to provoke them it’s better for us sooner than later.

  6. ” they believe they are strong and right” – And There’s their & your delusion right there! You hold your chin too high & you don’t see the uppercut coming.

    • They do believe they are strong, doesn’t matter if right or wrong, they are likely to act, especially if they think now, before supply chains rearrange, is their strongest time while emperor Xi is running things, they are more likely to act (hard to imagine for us) especially as Xi is under some internal pressure.

  7. Here is the whole piece:
    “You can’t have your cake and eat it too is a proverb that could be of use to some Australian officials, who continue to escalate tensions with China while hoping bilateral trade will remain intact.

    On Wednesday, Australian Minister for Trade Simon Birmingham requested urgent talks with Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, according to a Reuters report. At the same time, however, Birmingham said Australia would continue to push for an international inquiry into the COVID-19 outbreak.

    China has made it clear that the recent beef import suspensions and tariff threats on barley shipments are not politically motivated, and that its decisions are made based on normal market rules and facts. While China has no interest in “economically coercing” Australia, as was speculated by some politicians, it is no secret that unfriendly moves from the Morrison government have thrown bilateral ties into a deep freeze.

    And there is no guarantee that economic and trade activities between the two countries will go on as usual amid deteriorating relations, since economic interdependence between China and Australia is not high.

    China’s trade with some countries continues to move forward despite political frictions. For instance, China and Japan have strengthened economic and trade cooperation in spite of their historical issues; China and the US have maintained close economic ties amid political tensions; and China’s trade and investment with India continues to grow, accompanied by frequent disputes over various issues. Japan plays an important role in the Asian industrial chain, to which China has attached great importance. A US-China decoupling is unrealistic given their huge economic scales. And India’s promising market potential is highly valued by China.

    None of the above-mentioned situations are relevant to China-Australia relations. For China, Australia does not represent a big market and is not irreplaceable in terms of trade.

    When the world enters the buyer’s market, China has the right to select trading partners that can maximize its interest and shun biased markets that could bring uncertainty to economic exchanges. It is regrettable if some see this as economic coercion. In the business world, it is inevitably to avoid cooperation with a partner that is both hostile and replaceable.

    If bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, private Chinese investment, tourism and study in Australia may also be affected, because people can always find alternative destinations in these aspects. Although beef import suspensions and potential barley tariffs are not retaliatory actions from China, many still regard the moves negative signals which will inevitably discourage private investment and exchanges in the future.

    A favorable political environment cannot exist without contributions from both sides, which is why we hope Australia will rethink its hostile attitude toward China. If tensions continue on their current trajectory, it would be delusional to expect trade relations to remain on track.”

    • Charles MartinMEMBER

      How in the holy fvck is questioning Chinas response to Coronavirus hostile.

      I though communists are meant to be strong, but it seems they turn into whiners or get all emotional at the mere mention of any incompetence. If you’re trying to come off as the tough guy, act like it.

      Unless the propaganda is not true …

    • Shift of trade away from dependence on China…less Chinese investment…fewer students and tourists…a stiffening of national resolve…

      What’s not to like? I hope this comes to pass.

  8. maclennanrMEMBER

    LOL, if the CCP think that all the people who have suffered deep financial losses from Europe, North America and Australia are going to forget the CCP created those losses, the CCP are as stupid as they are evil. Moa only killed 20 million and created economic devastation for China, Xi is going to trump him by killing more and devastating the world economy.

  9. CCP Pure Evil

    “Treasurer Tim Pallas backed pursuit of an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus on Wednesday but warned that the “vilification” of China would be “dangerous, damaging and irresponsible”.”

    This is treasonous. He’s accusing us of vilifying China.

    All for merely asking for an independent and transparent inquiry into a global pandemic that has killed hundreds of thousands and destroyed the world economy for years to come.

    Surely we need this investigated so we can understand what conditions allowed the virus to form and what conditions allowed the virus to spread to every corner of the Earth.

    All that we can avoid this happening ever again.

    We know for a fact that China were arresting anyone that warned the public about the virus, they were demanding other countries reopen their borders as they were trying to cover up the devastation of the virus, did it come out of a wet market that was selling meat not for human consumption?

    Original SARS was formed in a wet market selling exotic meats and that nearly turned into a global pandemic, now SARS 2 has gone on to become a global pandemic.

    That’s two pandemics coming out of Chinese wet markets in 17 years. It’s only a matter of time before it happens again. We need to investigate the cause of this virus to avoid it ever happening again.

    If merely asking for an investigation into a global pandemic causes China to throw a hissy fit, then what happens when we speak out against an invasion of China or annexation of the South China Sea. They’ll be sending the Chinese fleet our way as well.

    These people making excuses for Xi Jinping have zero values, no morals.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now