Q1 GDP tipped to fall, ensuring Australian recession

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The record surge in March retail sales on the back of panic buying of groceries, alongside the smaller than expected fall in construction, won’t be enough to save Q1 GDP, according to economists:

Westpac’s Andrew Hanlan said the slightly better than expected [construction] figure would not change the view of the bank’s economists that March GDP was turning negative.

“The first-quarter outcome of -1 per cent leaves our view around March quarter GDP growth unchanged – currently forecasting a decline of 0.7 per cent,” Mr Hanlan said.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.