Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A flat end to the week as the window dressing month end meme takes place across risk assets with most stock markets pulling back here in Asia. Besides the usual end of month reshuffle, risk is still waiting Trump’s policy announcement on China, but it seems he’s too busy having a dummy spit about Twitter instead.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is getting some traction going into the close, up 0.2% to 2851 points, while the Hang Seng Index is off by 0.7% to 22969 points. A new daily low is ominous for the now non-independent city-state, keeping well below previous firm support at the 23300 point level, and ready to break below the long term trendline for a return to the March lows:

Japanese share markets are getting a bit anxious following their way too fast and too far rally, with the Nikkei 225 slipping only 0.2% to 21877 points, while the USDJPY pair fell sharply throughout the session to breakdown to the 107 handle:

The ASX200 was the biggest loser with shorts finally paying off as the market fell 1.6% to 5755 points. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is trying to breakout again after a sharp reversal and fill volatile session overnight, now back to the mid 65’s here before the London open and remaining well supported:

Eurostoxx futures are down 1% or so with S&P futures flat going into the last session of the week. It’s unknown if the chaos in Minnesota will have any effect on the market – its not like Wall Street gives a shit about 100,000 dead Americans so far anyway – with the most likely catalyst coming from the White House on any moves on China:

Have a good weekend and stay safe out there!

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Comments

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I saw that and had exactly the same thought! All that ideological bigotry and a generations evolution of ‘service delivery’ – and now they pivot……

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Can you imagine the public servants kicking back at the pub *right now* getting absolutely siht-faced knowing that they’d done their best to tell those making this collections demand policy that it wasn’t ‘safe’ to do this? They must have had a really great day today (those that stayed in the department, and weren’t moved on). Well done them.

        My goodness, how good is it when they system works, eh?

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          I hope they are snitched on and arrested for drinking in a pub in the incorrect and non-prescribed Lock. Us. Down. manner!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Hold on. Some of those people make sure you get your ng tax credits paid correctly. You got a problem with them too?

            Can’t have public money without public service mate.

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            And a few them have probably attended one of your relos parties, so they could actually be mates of yours?

        • I have a hard time believing a single public servant said any thing at all in protest or disagreement with the government plans regarding robodebt. Whats more likely is they said, yes sir yes sir three bags full sir. How high do you want me to jump sir. Can i lick those shoes of yours clean with my tongue sir. All the while thinking, im not affected what do i care. Thats the public service today. Thats Australia today.

        • My grand father was a treasurer, parents included senior civil servants at federal state level. They most definitely stood up to the politicians. My great grand father had a “knight hood” refused because he stood up.

          My partner is a senior civil servant overseeing two major projects.

          I can absolutely assure you that what your views on civil servants currently are something from the 1950’s mate.

          The “without fear of favour” of public servants is so dead its not funny. They are now the same as journos – absolutely toothless.

          I remember civil servants resigning as a matter of principal all the time – just do not see it any more at all.

          • Suspect that over the years the more outspoken members of the public service have been managed out or moved on only to be replaced by sycophants, arse lickers and captain’s picks with the same ideology. Eventually the shit floats to the top, and threats to stop leaks are more about protecting their fiefdom rather than doing what is best for the public.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Suicides, separations, removals, alcoholism, drug abuse, prison… yep. Filthy, fckn toe-rags.

        I’ve seen what happens to people I’ve lived when when the gov asks for money back it’s (legitimately) owed and sets the repayment terms up front. It’s scary. Must be so much worse when it’s just made up numbers (ABS stat style).

        • It kind of happened to me. I had it set up that we get the FTB at the EOFY after tax was sorted and incomes known. Some stupid cow at centre link said to the missus “oh you should get it every fortnight, its better.” and so it was set up.

          Do the Taxes, lodge them. nek minnit, owe thousands in FTB over payments, due immediately.

          paid it back, changed the FTB back to EOFY style. azzhats the lot of them.

    • I know. More doughty yeomen and yeowomen, scrupulously honest in their income declarations, not taking a penny more than their richly deserved benefits yet again cruelled by insensitive Tories.
      Brings a tear to the eye of the flintiest-hearted.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      And how much did this whole sh!tstorm cost? After paying back the “debts”.

      Is it less or more than the cost of keeping car manufacturing in Australia?

      • someone ran the numbers few years back and to keep car manufacturing would have cost 2 cappuccinos per Australian per year. That means ~1.5 today when taking in consideration immigration.

        • I read somewhere that for every dollar the government spent returned about four or five through the economy.

        • I find that questionable – car manufacturing was hugely profitable when AUD was under 80 cents. That was the break even point.

          • from memory manufacturers needed around $500m subsidies per year. Can’t remember why and all the detail. The number was very small but LIBS were driven by ideology as they wanted and still do want to weaken the unions and create sweat shop conditions for all of us.
            As I said before all car manufacturers are protected in all countries and those $500m would have help against foreign competition.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      This is why I hate computer people. They always fark things up! Take Y2K for example. And arethey are all really strange too. Just not normal.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        Hey Reusa have you heard about y2ky? Helps you get four digits in your date.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yes, yes it was.

            Speaking of… had the most underpriced whiskey of my life yesterday. Oban. 14 yrold.
            It’s what gold should taste like.
            You know, if it wasn’t inert. And tasteless.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Having put people through purgatory with robodebtSeeker, this gubmint in its usual happy-clappy, grubby way snivels away with a Friday arvo announcement confirming their effectively illegal and unconscionable conduct.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      That’s why the slimy filthy Cun7 has these pathetic indigenous and anti slavery bullsh1t charities to deflect the fact that he’s a slimy filthy cuuuuuuuuuun7

      • And TwiggXi’s a China stooge. The cOnt absolutely stooged the Government buying all that crap Chinese CoVid stuff that turned out to be fvck useless then on selling to Government.

    • Agile and innovative, taking Australia from an industrial museum to an industrial mausoleum.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Building the 21st century over again… with one block less… each time.

        • Ease up there spaceboy. Let’s get the twentieth century working before racing ahead to this magical world you speak of.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Nice. Yes i remember this. Was pretty young tho.

      I remember at the time it succeeded in highlighting exactly how much more expensive Australian made items were compared to everything else.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      All the breaking news in Canberra:

      Digging up the spoils of his gardening success also required careful consideration by Herb.

      “I had to dig deep to make sure I got them all, they grew well down in the soil, further than I expected. About 600cms deep in the garden box,” he said.

      Herb and his wife, Marcia, are now looking forward to dining on several sweet feeds. The preferred cooking option is baked.

      “Baked sweet potato is the best way to go,” Herb said.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I saw someone on Twitter say if there was any Kerr sh!tf#ckery then Gough must be reinstated!

    • The Australian Republican Movement is VERY excited about this.

      I wonder who was funding Hocking – a High Court challenge can’t have been cheap.

  1. Marcus L'Estrange

    NATIONAL AFFAIRS ABS
    makes employment figures bend over backwards

    by Marcus L’Estrange

    News Weekly, May 30, 2020 [email protected] 0450285163
    April’s Australian Bureau of Statistics “Labour Force” unemployment figures of 6.2 per cent must be taken with a massive grain of salt. They are merely a political definition of unemployment, not an actuarial one.

    How the ABS can claim an unemployment number of 823,000 for April when you have 1.6 million on the dole (not including those unemployed who cannot get the dole due to their partner working and those on the JobKeeper allowance – six million) is beyond me. Similarly, the ABS claim an increase of 118,000 unemployed for April as 600,000 jobs were lost.
    Terry McCrann has attacked the ABS’ official unemployment figures, effectively calling them “fake” and claiming the real figure is more like 30 per cent in the private sector: “The ABS has to ditch its ludicrous methods of measuring joblessness if it wants to be taken seriously again” (Sunday Herald Sun, May 10, 2020).
    He claimed that the ABS unemployment estimates were already ridiculous 30 years ago, and are beyond ridicule now. The only jobs data that now have any meaning come from Roy Morgan Research.
    Back in 2017, Adam Creighton wrote in The Australian: “The definition of unemployment certainly doesn’t satisfy the ‘pub test’. It actually includes only a minority of people without work who want it. Imagine if a group of rogue statisticians, hellbent on issuing numbers that reflect reality, seized control of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Their first decision would be to release an unemployment rate above 15 per cent — almost triple the official figure”.
    There are many reasons for this but the following examples should suffice:
    1: The ABS regard you as unemployed only if you are “actively looking for work” in the week prior to the survey period. But just what work is there to look for right now and indeed for many years, particularly since the global financial crisis? Not only are businesses not hiring now, many are being forced to not operate at all. Persons who only looked in newspapers or at job advertisements on the internet are seen as passively, rather than actively, looking for work and so are not considered unemployed. How job seekers are supposed to apply for a job that they are unqualified for or simply doesn’t exist, in order to be regarded as an “active” job seeker, is beyond me. Similarly, just checking noticeboards is not considered an active job search.
    2: JobSeeker/Youth Training Allowance (dole) recipients, due to covid19 restrictions, do not at the moment have any mutual obligation requirements, (e.g. “actively looking for work”) because the requirements have been suspended until June 1, 2020. So, no one on JobSeeker allowance (1.6 million mid-May) and no one on the JobKeeper allowance will be counted as unemployed. As of mid-May, 835,000 employers, with six million employees, are covered by JobKeeper. The ANZ Job Vacancy survey for April shows that there were 64,000 vacancies, down from 136,000 in March and 62 per cent lower than a year ago.
    Commentator Alan Kohler asked in The Australian on April 25: “Six million people are budgeted to get it (JobKeeper), which is 46 per cent of the workforce. Would they have been unemployed without it? Does that mean unemployment would have been 56 per cent, not 15 per cent, without the Job Keeper Allowance?”
    3: If you work one hour in the week before the survey period you are regarded as being employed. The ABS give the same status to people who work one hour as those who work 40 hours plus! A more objective measure would be the average number of hours worked per month per adult. Apart from being more objective, it incorporates the impact of unemployment, participation, underemployment and population ageing.
    4: If you are not ready to start work during the week after the survey you are not counted as being unemployed. For example, if you have short-term health problems, are moving house or you cannot immediately obtain childcare, you don’t count. You are not unemployed.
    5: People stood down who receive even a week or two of annual/long service leave will also be counted as employed. Additionally, people who have been laid off are not counted as unemployed if they believe they have a job to go back to within four weeks.
    6: A falling rate of participation in the labour market. If people simply give up looking for work, that reduces the actual number of officially unemployed Australians. Half a million workers dropped out of the workforce in April and were not counted as unemployed. Hence the nonsensical ABS figure of 6.2 per cent for April.
    7: Youth Allowance (youth dole) recipients who are studying part time as a requirement of receiving the dole are not counted as being unemployed.
    8: If you receive JobSeeker (dole) but are allowed to engage in volunteering, work part time or are homeless, you are not counted as being unemployed.
    9: If you have worked without pay in a family business during the survey week you are counted as being employed.
    When you allow for these factors, the real figure for April was, well, certainly not 6.2 per cent. I believe it is at least around two million unemployed, or around 15 per cent, with 1.3 million underemployed. All up, around 25 per cent plus.
    The dramatic understatement of Australia’s unemployment and underemployment figures by the ABS causes major distortions in handling covid19, economic planning and general policymaking.
    Certainly, Senator Kenneally wasn’t “dog whistling” when she recently called for a review of Australia’s temporary work visa system.

    • My favourite bit was when he said reduced transparency is required for greater accountability. Amazeballs.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Builders in my area are buying the sh1ttest blocks they can find, as it doesn’t seem to matter if it’s opposite a petrol station and a car park the Chinese will buy the sh1tbox as long as it’s built like a palace, big money too

    • You are describing a very thin market prone to correction.
      Ask yourself, what would a big Yuan deval do to this situation?

  2. happy valleyMEMBER

    ” … its not like Wall Street gives a shit about 100,000 dead Americans so far anyway …”

    Yes, they do – if there is a buck to be made out of them every which way, and remember Straya showed the world the light on how to charge fees to dead people. How good is Straya and how really great could America become?

    • They are probably acting on instructions from the Chinese consulate. Doing the needful for the $$$$$$….
      I think Drew really p*ssed the Chinese consulate off with the AVO he got against them after the death threats.

      Full credit to him for riding this wave unapologetically.

  3. darklydrawlMEMBER

    US / Trump and chinese students:
    https://apnews.com/1913dc7af5a46d8fa9e261d9bf195ae7
    ” The Trump administration may soon expel thousands of Chinese graduate students enrolled at U.S. universities and impose other sanctions against Chinese officials in the latest signs of tensions between Washington and Beijing that are raging over trade, the coronavirus pandemic, human rights and the status of Hong Kong.”

  4. “The racist and fascist approach that led to the death of George Floyd in the US city of Minneapolis as a result of torture has not only deeply saddened all of us, but it has also become one of the most painful manifestations of the unjust order we stand against across the world.”

    When Erdogan starts taking the moral high ground and laying the slipper in your country must really be in a mess.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Yet 99.9% of people would prefer to live in the US the Turkey under a tyrant

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      It’s very easy to sound like you’re taking the moral high ground.

      Actually doing it is a different matter.

  5. Minneapolis CBD trashed, looted and burned. The police station burned out. Someone was trying to tell me yesterday the George Floyd murder was of no interest or concern of this blog, being a finance site. Yeh right. It could swell into civil unrest across the US at this rate.

    • The murder’s not in the remit, the riot is. Lots of murders happening every day, irrelevant to finance.

    • America will be fine. It’s fortunate enough to have a stable genius at the helm to guide it through these difficult and challenging times.

    • Mark Hardwood

      Make tens of millions of young people and workers unemployed, get them all to wear masks, then kill one of them. Great idea!

      Trump needs to end all lockdowns and restrictions immediately, as the solution to this unrest. Laws requiring the wearing of masks should all be repealed.

      • Have lots of people die from a virus because you refuse even to take the easiest and least invasive step of requiring masks, that will definitely make people relax.

        • Mark Hardwood

          Breathe in your own bacteria and elevate your CO2 levels by wearing a mask – great way to get pleurisy which already being reported in otherwise healthy people.