Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A solid up day here in Asia despite the lack of a lead from US and UK markets with a sea of green across stock markets. The USD is weakening against all the majors, save Yen, with gold still asleep on the sidelines.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1% higher to 2846 points, with the Hang Seng Index gapping over 2% higher to fill in a lot of the rout from Friday, closing at 23437 points. This takes it back above previous firm support at the 23300 point level, signalling everything is fine in the rogue island for now:

Japanese share markets continued their very good start to the week with the Nikkei 225 closing 2.5% higher to 21217 points, while the USDJPY pair was able to gain further momentum from its Monday open, closing in on last week’s high at the 107.80 level:

The ASX200 was the big performer again with all the shorts seemingly wiped out, pushing the market up nearly 3% to close at 5780 points, while the Aussie dollar played catchup against the USD, almost bursting through the 66 handle trying to recover lost ground from its rollover on Friday:

Eurostoxx futures are up over 1% with US futures up more than double that as Wall Street plays catch up to the ebullient mood. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows the broader stock market wanting to push back above the previous highs and make a run for 3000 as Wall Street goes ga-ga:

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. Let’s be honest now guys: this isn’t a bear market rally is it

    Mid March was the bottom

    You’ve stuffed it

    • Fascist China

      Not me. I’ve been trying to tell get everyone on board for about 7 weeks.

      You need some resolve and tenacity if you want to trade the markets. Most don’t have it.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      did you not move ya super into cash………….well at the end of feb
      come on come clean

      • Me?

        I’ve been screaming at these idiots to buy the dip since mid March

        My only regret is I didn’t put in more

        • We really appreciate being called idiots because of our natural caution and unwillingness to risk our hard earned assets on wildly volatile risk markets.

          Your screaming is also going down well.

    • LachlanMEMBER

      I stuffed it for sure. Bought MB Fund and a small amount of BBOZ BBUS and PMGOLD in mid April. Have done nothing but go backwards.

      • Narapoia451MEMBER

        Same with me on BBOZ, small amount – capitulated today and reversed some of the gains I made betting against the poo on the way down.

        If the bottom has been reached it’ll be unique as a downturn.

    • @Coming @Fascist China

      In summation you are saying that any form of value investing is dead, that earnings do not matter, nor historical averages over many cycles? Basically its a pure musical chairs ponzi and the last person holding the egg gets creamed?

      If you are right and this bull rally continues then investing is way too complex for 99.999% of people and should be avoided at all costs. Unless you are a human global investment firm I doubt you have the terabytes of data or analytics capability to back-up your position.

      Congrats on picking a direction but pump it down with the chest beating.

      • M2 determines asset prices

        It’s really that simple

        Not sure how you think it’s complex or too difficult for most people when everyone and their mum was pumping money into the Share market.
        Are we all in the top 0.0001% then?

        You got the chance at a 40% discount from an absurd event that no one could have possibly predicted

        • Fascist China

          Iran’s stock market has tripled this year while their currency has weakened by many multiples.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          It’s not that simple.
          Money is an asset. Say you doubled M2 does that imply doubling of real assets? No because money demand may have skyrocketed. Money’s return (deflation) is the inverse of real assets (Pigou effect). ie. you can easily have an increase in M2 if it’s the only asset people want to hold.
          The more money = higher asset prices is monetarist oversimplification.
          More money only increases asset prices if it lowers interest rates. When long term rates reach the floor it stops working.

          • Have a look at a chart mate

            If there’s $100 in circulation are the same amount of assets worth more or fewer dollars than when there is $1,000,000 in circulation ?

            Don’t really need to be an economist or know who Pigou is to work it out

            And at this point, Interest rates dont matter as much as real inflation
            The two are now disconnected

            If not, then what in your opinion accounts for return to all time high asset prices while demand and production is in the toilet ?

          • SweeperMEMBER

            That depends on money demand/velocity.
            If there’s $1M in circulation but its all being hoarded in someones safe, and everyone else is dumping real assets in order to get some of it, then asset prices and the price level could collapse to zero.
            Whereas if there’s $100 in circulation but no-one wants to hold so its rapidly turning over in exchange for real assets, then real asset prices could be higher.
            CB’s have just been responding to a huge spike in money demand that was obvious from mid March when bond yields spiked temporarily.
            And the stock market has jumped on it like QE! = higher asset prices!. No because its not 2010 and the 10Y yield wasn’t above 3% at the start of the program, it was under 1% – ie. no room to move unless they adopt NIRP.

          • M2 is already part of the money velocity equation
            So yeah, if you increase M2 you inevitably decrease velocity
            That isn’t the same thing as reducing GDP to decrease velocity
            Which is why the parameter is absolutely, completely, fking useless, and not really indicative of anything

            Maybe have a think about why things aren’t playing out like in the textbooks

          • SweeperMEMBER

            “So yeah, if you increase M2 you inevitably decrease velocity”

            Not at all, during hyperinflations huge money growth is always coupled with increasing velocity.

            “Maybe have a think about why things aren’t playing out like in the textbooks”

            they are. just not in the market for Afterpay and bitcoin. Maybe have a think about why that might be the case.

    • I didn’t sell. I just held on through the turmoil. Which is what most punters should do. Buy hold, especially index funds. I don’t try and pick winning stocks, but if I did I would have bought Facebook at IPO and Telsa but I’m too scared to take a punt on individual companies. Instead I prefer indexes.

  2. so many tried and so many failed. what made me think I can bet against the poo and win.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      And my theory about a falling Oz market following a Wall St holiday didn’t hold water either, Niko.

      • Fascist China

        A lot of heroes have come and gone over the past two months with BBOZ and YANK. Ended in tears for all of them.

      • at least I do understand the risks and so my bet is not big. There two forces that pull the aud to opposite sides.
        Global stimulus that favours any resource backed currency and
        Geopolitics that is stacked against the aud.
        My bet is that US and China will go to all out trade war. It’s election year so both candidates will compete on who is going to be tougher on China and Trump will pull the pin well before Nov as he becomes desperate. China is the new Russia.
        But will I have have nerve to hold and keep buying in order to reduce my average price.

        • Fascist China

          The market doesn’t care about someone’s analysis or how clever they think they are. The market doesn’t care what any of us think.

          • But coming et al are very keen to let us all know what they think

            Ur all dopey oneoneone111

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        As I said last night until chyna moves on HK or there is skirmish in the SCS or something large goes bankrupt the fake rally will just keep going, how long is the question, and this is not advice I’m a hopeless investor

      • I thought 4 weeks ago there was a good chance of a correction but I let it ride. You have to live with the fact you will never sell at the peak no matter what.

        Some people on here seem like they spend too much energy on trying to pick one or two stocks at the right time being the hero. Making a hero buy and hero sell. Seems like an unhealthy obsession with inverse ETFs and gold stocks too.

        • Agree, this is why I buy vintage cars, because they bring me joy and I enjoy working on them. And if I think they are cool often history catches on that they were special and become a collector car. So far I’ve been good at picking winners.

          I’ve noticed quite a lot of vintage cars have been doing well all through the crisis. Right now Nissan Skyline GTRs seem unstoppable. Prices have been going up and up.

          But I buy to hold with a 10 year view frame in mind. 3-4 years ago I thought 240z prices would peak. But lately it seems they are on another uptick. Prices surging higher.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Didn’t this person hear SFM’s direction after his election win which said to the effect that bureaucrats were there to implement ministerial decisions – beginning and end of story?

    • This could be any organisation.

      “The system makes it near-impossible for public servants to lawfully speak publicly about alleged corruption, and instead works to funnel their complaints internally through their departmental or ministerial superiors.”

      That’s not excusing it. It’s just that I’ve seen it in both public and private. Tell the plebs that if they have an issue a system is in place to deal with it fairly and independently. The first time someone tries the system out word quickly spreads that it’s the same result with more people and more paperwork. In some ways it is more depressing. I’d rather just have to talk to the guy who is going to fob me off than go through mediators.

    • Mark Hardwood

      So when you consider that maybe only 50% of the population will ever get infected, that takes down overall mortality to 0.13%, which is barely worse than the flu at 0.1%.

      What a huge waste of time and money!

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Hey Coming are you related to Dominic, and I ain’t talking about about our Dominic

    • That’s old news, what is even your point, could just copy paste your comments from weeks ago mate.

      • So that’s yes to the first question, and no to the second?

        I just want the website brains trust to acknowledge reality for once, because they’ve spent the last two months telling me I’m wrong

    • CDC “confirms”?

      Coming no doubt has an eye for detail, since he is a Doctor…and no doubt, an eminent one at that.

      However, the language used in this document hardly suggest “confirmation” of any data. To quote:
      “Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. These values—called parameter values—can be used to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19.

      New data on COVID-19 is available daily; information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values.

      The parameters in the scenarios:

      Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
      Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
      Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.”

      Terms such as “estimate”, “preliminary”, and “assumption” are scattered throughout.

      I like my “confirmation” with a little more certainty. However, highly qualified individuals such as Coming obviously have some sage-like insight into preliminary data, so deserve appropriate kudos.

      Golf-clap….

      • Ahh, still living in hope for the apocalypse we all so desperately wanted

        I’ll try you again in another month?

          • How many more experts need to tell you it’s true before you accept it?
            Or is it only when they tell you what you want to hear?

            Literally every piece of data points to the same answer: 0.2-0.4%

            Is it 100% certain?
            Nothing in life is

          • Agreed Coming.

            It sucks that we have to take a chance on our health now, but it’s reality and not going away for many years. All this social distancing is for the psychological benefits in the weak minded for the most part.

            It’s great living in Australia and being able to suppress it but it’s not practical in much of the world. In 6 months maybe Europe and the US is better for having opened up earlier. Who knows it’s all best guess at the time.

            Two years from now if lockdowns persist and the virus doesn’t mutate, I’ll voluntarily have an overdue trip overseas and take my chances with the virus.

        • I wonder how you can ascribe any particular personal view on my part when all I do is challenge your (constant) reliance on incomplete or insubstantial data. Obviously you apply the same methodology in this regard…make assumptions that fit your particular, peculiar, and fixated desires.

          Keep trying champ…chump….whatever. Your persistence is amusing. I’m yet to be convinced that anything you state hasn’t been moulded by a Mitty-like fantasy of possessing special powers.

    • Confirms!

      So with 0.15% of the entire New York State dead and many more suspected to have died undiagnosed. That means more than 60% of the entire population contracted the virus despite the lockdown.

    • The number may not matter that much, really.

      If someone thought Covid-19’s death rate was 4% but it’s now actually 0.4%, with lockdown, then the dilution applies (at least) as much to other scenarios, such as the common flu – eg. we say it’s 0.1% but it’s actually 0.01%, or less, without lockdown, etc.

      From the numbers I’ve looked at, and the rationalisations I’ve invoked, Covid-19 always comes out at 10-100 times worse than the common flu, and thus worthy of pandemic-like responses.

      Either way we look at it, the numbers only correlate and describe what we see and experience; they don’t dictate it.

      What we experience is, despite a lockdown, many people die, various health systems get overwhelmed, etc; whereas the common flu does no such things, even without lockdown. They’re just not of the same ilk.

      To get stuck in number details is to miss the appropriate rationalisations, including (but not limited to) the reality that Covid-19 and th common flu cannot be validly compared on a like for like basis, nor was it wise to run an experiment with peoples’ lives to do so); missing this, one will put the cart before the horse, the quantitative ‘reality’ before the qualitative reality.

      With all this in mind, I personally find it fairly ‘obvious’ that Covid-19 is some 10-100 times worse than the common flu (and we know how many people die from that, just not the death rate); hence, most lockdown actions are understandable and justifiable.

      My 2c

      • I don’t know the numbers but I’m guessing measles, hepatitis, tuberculosis each easily cause 10x the deaths of the common flu in most of the world.

        We have to learn to live with this virus in the end. Keep the borders shut and operate “normally” for as long as we can since we chose to go down this path.

        I’ve taken far greater risks with disease and injury travelling the world than with Wuhan Virus, so if I get it I accept my fate. Most world’s population took those same risks everyday pre-Wuhan Virus.

        This all comes down to people being utterly petrified of the tiny chance of dying.

        • The difference is how contagious Covid-19 is compared to many other diseases (expect measles, which is very contagious), and our inability to treat it, nor have a vaccine for it.

          TB kills 1-2 million per year, mainly in developing countries – that’s bad!

          Covid has already killed ~350,000, with the world in lockdown, with most of the deaths in developed countries (so far…).

          The other diseases don’t seem to be as disruptive as Covid-19.

          I don’t totally disagree with you – yes, we need to learn to live with it, but trying to do so before we are ready is foolish.

    • Your weird obsession with getting random punters on MB, (none of whom you’ve ever met) to agree with your view on the Chinese Plague is…weird. Is it not obvious to you that nobody here gives a rats ar$e what you think about anything at all? At one time we would have, but your loony obsessive behaviour is clearly wrong headed, and I suspect most of us think you would benefit most of all from some kind of counselling.

      To paraphrase Oliver Cromwell, in the Bowels of Christ, please consider that you may be wrong. And then Jog on.

      • I am GrootMEMBER

        It is more than a little concerning that the individual in question professes to be a medical doctor.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Really ? For mine it reinforces the possibility, just like the ‘you’re talking to idiots who probably don’t even have a TAFE qualification’ bloke. Those are “do you know who I am ? I’m a doctor” mindset to a ‘T’.

          I’d be willing to bet his speciality is completely unrelated, though.

    • It is actually better than you mention as those that are dying are predominantly the very old and already very ill. I think Sweden will turn out being the sensible country amoungst many.

  3. DingwallMEMBER

    Via the SMH today… echoes my view that we need to see the money…………. not numberwang, not ancient data, not part data nor housing data hidden away because it contains a few red lines.

    Shooing the bear out the door
    By Lucy Battersby
    The head of equities at RBC Capital Markets, Karen Jorritsma, says it feels like the ASX is “officially in an information vacuum”.

    “Months out from reporting season and with plenty of noisy and backward looking headline data we don’t have much to hold onto, except hope.. and that’s what this recovery trade we are seeing this week is based on. Hope, that the worst is behind us and there is a return to normalcy to some degree,” she said this afternoon.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You lie biatch! You, Super money? You already fudged your claim and took out all $20k, amirite? 😁

          • @TW,
            I’ve been shut in for a while. Years. I’ve seen the descent, and probably done my but to contribute to it. A lot of bad stuff goes up here. The nuts are nutty, coated in peanut butter, and wrapped in alfoil. Yet,
            out of all the low, vulgar grotesque, bigoted, [email protected] and h0m0ph0bic things that I’ve ingested, your allusion to embracing Michaelia Cash is the first thing to truly get an icky feeling of wrong to run through my body. It is just wrong.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      It’s crazy. I simply cannot see any reason for it given the turmoil locally, nationally and globally. I’m generally not a doomsayer like so many here but a little caution doesn’t seem out of place.

    • this is crazier than the dot.com period. some people are literary bidding on companies that will be bankrupt in few weeks or months and strategy is the FED will bail us out.

      • It’s some seriously effective can-kicking, though…!!

        Can’t see anything less than major debt default, unsaveable insolvency, or major geo-political fallout ending this thing…the Fed has big guns and big intentions…

        Not saying it won’t end tomorrow, though…just learning it’s going to take a hard lesson for the market to “learn”.

        • because of how connected and informed the world now is, I’d say this is even crazier than the 20s and this is big call as 20s were really wild.
          I mean even the FED is being totally stupid. They did buy hertz junk bonds just days before hertz declared bankruptcy. Zerohedge had article about this with screen shots.

          • I think it’s a classic bull trap but because we aren’t on the gold standard and because of communications and the herd I think this rebound will go on forlonger than people think

  4. DingwallMEMBER

    Channel 9 Brisbane News just now …… great time to buy property….. sales are booming … sales rates better than this time last year ……………….

  5. Hmm….what’s the ASX level where you declare recovery versus dead cat bounce?

    For me it’s above 6000 for a couple of weeks.

    Any other thoughts?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      600,000 .??out of work .( who fcuking knows ) ..many can’t pay the rent as it mounts into arrears …many struggling to buy groceries …..many of them temporarily embarrassed immigrants from the slums of India ……the prime minister touting a magic Jobmaker machine …….Stock market booming ……..how is star casino doing …I’m sure it’s also booming…….or is the stock prices and house prices a true and the casino a reflection of the real value of our money

      The system is broke …..which way will it break ?

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Upwards – what the heck do Mr Market and Scotty from Marketing care about JobSeekers, JobKeepers, JobMakers etc etc?

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        If it was that easy to create jobs, growth and wealth I suspect we would have already done it years ago. Nice slogans, little substance. Sometime in the next 12 months we are going to painfully slam into the wall of reality. Sadly many people won’t see it coming either.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          Agree … if it was that easy the last 5 or 6 PMs would have grabbed it …..Scomo’s magic jobmaker machine hadn’t been invented so we will have to forgive them

          That hard wall is fast approaching …..buckle up chaps …

    • Don’t think it’s hugely relevant; I think technicals are important, because people think technicals are important; but I think real data ends bubbles (solvency, defaults, unemployment, etc).

      Stock and debt markets can pulse their own reality until they can’t (which can be a while).

    • Because there weren’t scenes of hospitals being overwhelmed in Wuhan and Italy.

        • I’m not sure which universe you live in. But in the real world where people make important decisions they are often faced with daily conundrum of not having enough data to make a decision that they would like. In such situations one must rely on the best available data and judgement in that point in time. What I’m saying should be self evident, the rapid spread and scenes of hospitals being overwhelmed and a number of early studies is all decision makers had. Governments that hesitated and waited for more of the ‘data’ ended up making the same decision to lockdown however confronted with a much higher death toll and crippled hospital system. You can argue the early projections were more pessimistic, hospital capacity built wasn’t required etc. but that’s the nature of extrapolating data based on thousands of cases to entire populations of millions. You aren’t some special smart man, you took a position that things weren’t as bad as the projections and you were right. But because of sheer dumb luck that if wrong costs the lives of hundred of thousands of people.

    • Far out you’re a tosser. There was many lockdowns during the recent fires. Numerous no-travel and remain in place alerts were issued and widely reported on. Is your life so sad that this is how you entertain yourself?

      • Nah

        No one was told to remain their homes with windows closed unless their houses were at direct risk of fire

        Most of the deaths were people with chronic respiratory illness not at risk from the fire, but exposed to the smoke

        Very similar to the coronavirus situation really

        • You are an idiot. Keep up the virus spam posting, heck, do another 20 right now. I can always hope you get banned. I laughed very hard when your pity party failed the other day. You are a sad deluded fool.

          • I find it ironic that bcnich comments got censored which LVO or DLS even confirmed but the peanut brigade can post this dross ad nauseum

            I mean it’s just tiresome and boring (really want this as a forum where you can ignore members or downvote ) and my thumbs are sore from scrolling past but if he wants to post dross then fine but some consistency please

            Maybe I’ll just spin up an official unofficial MB forum site

        • That’s simply not true. Advice was given to keep windows shut, remain indoors and if outdoors don’t do strenuous exercise. People with respiratory conditions were also told to stay inside. Working from home was also suggested by a number of companies including mine. This advice remained for a number of weeks off and on depending on the air quality, particularly when when it was rated as poor and hazardous.

        • “ No one was told to remain their homes with windows closed”

          Actually in Canberra that is exactly what we were told.

          You are useless Coming.

    • I must be misreading your comments because you were adamant you never spread propaganda.

    • I was living in Five Dock Sydney and had to stay indoors due to so much smoke. I was even told to work from home to avoid exposing myself to the smoke.

      1 day I cycled to pick up my car and it was horrible. In my opinion the fires were in many ways worse. It was telling me the planet is being destroyed. The virus on the other hand had the ability to kill a few million and maybe slow population growth. Which would be good for the planet.

    • Just to add to the chorus, please, please, please take your thoughts to somewhere where they will be appreciated. This is not that place. There is another place where people will love you. Go find it. You’ll be better for it. Our echo chamber is not yours.

      To be very clear, this herd is rejecting you. We don’t want what what you’re selling. You are unpleasant. We look at you uneasily. You smell of strangeness and wrong things. If this was a herd of wild animals (and perhaps it is) we would drive you away to eaten by the predators. We don’t want you. Please get a refund of your membership, pro rata, and go away.

  6. I hate making big statements. It’s 9:1 on you end up looking like a fool. Call me a fool…

    The only way this global ponzi is going to crash is if commercial banks loose confidence (see what I did there?) and tighten lending and/or raise interest rates. As far as I can see, central banks and governments will pimp themselves to the end of the Earth to keep the bubble inflated. But the bubble is really supported by commercial banks and their ability (via fractional reserve banking) and willingness to lend. If that pulls back the deck of cards will fall down.

    The commercial banks’ ability to lend far above their reserve holdings gives them the ability to create paper wealth, based on debt. It is a leveraging cycle that can go around multiple times, more cash allows more leveraged borrowing, making some people very wealthy and possibly supporting the shared wealth of society (but I have yet to see that premise conclusively proved). So long as central banks increase cash availability and commercial banks are confident to lend, thereby multiplying that cash via leverage, then there is nothing short of war or natural catastrophe that can deflate the asset bubble. Too much money makes for too high asset prices and there is no normal power on Earth that can defeat that relationship.

    However, if commercial banks lose confidence and cease to lend, or increase their risk premia (interest rates) or even start calling in risky debt, then the amount of virtual cash in the economy would plunge. There would be nothing the central bank or the government could do about it, because of the fractional banking leverage factor. The virtual money commercial banks create by lending is leveraged times 9 the real money in the economy. Commercial banks, not the RBA, control how much money is available to support the bubble.

    I’m pretty sure that commercial banks can set their loan interest rates any way they want, irrespective of RBA cash rates. It’s only an outcome and of political and market forces that they mostly align. If banks wish to, I understand they can set rates on variable rate loans more or less as they see fit. So, for example, if unemployment increases and loan defaults tip up a few percent, commercial banks may increase their variable rate loans in response, to protect themselves. They may also tighten lending standards somewhat.

    That would be all it takes. More loans would default due to higher repayments, and asset prices would fall due to tightened lending. This would make banks even more nervous, because the asset is their security. They would repeat the tightening cycle. The asset bubble would burst. However, so long as commercial banks keep lending generously with very low rates (that is, having confidence that they are carrying low risk) then the bubble will continue.

    Well, to tell the truth, in all this excitement I ain’t sure how many shots I’ve fired myself. So, what you’ve got to ask yourself, punk, is am I feeling lucky?

    • You’re getting there

      Private Loan creation only matters in that it increases M2

      But there are other things that increase M2: central bank asset purchases and national government deficits

      Interest rates are the only other factor

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        And that’s what the Fed has just done with Boeing’s recently issued bonds. It’s a bailout without all the troublesome conditions of a bailout.

    • I agree looking at M2 or the Feds balance sheet may give a sense of false security. This link from Nordea might help: https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/57513/fx-weekly-the-trade-deal-was-always-born-to-die : and to paraphrase: “On historical lead/lag patterns it may lead to a massive positive ketchup effect in markets after a while, when M2 increases markedly versus the market cap of S&P 500 and US Treasuries. This is a story for 2021, while the M2 to market cap ratio rather warns of weaker risk appetite for the remainder of 2020.” I think this is still a silly ponzi rally, based on nothing but the sentiment of those in it and I’m guessing the algo that’s being fed like a stuffed pig to blast shorts (that bit I have no proof for but what else?). This ponzi will end in the way you say and I think it’s gonna take a few big insolvencies or big waves of insolvencies and even then it will probably be pumped to the election in November and if they can manage that, there is going to be some pain at some point after that M2 explosion wears off or if Trump loses. I think excess funds in the repo market have a way of helping pump the s and p, but it’s still not clear to me exactly how. The Fed gets the blame, but someone is using the leverage somehow. There’s a good you tube clip on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMWYTzmJkIM and the clip says it’s not really the Fed in the repo market

      • woops I think the term is false sense of security !! no doubt someone will jump on that, so I’ll do it first.

    • I think that the ability and willingness to borrow is another critical part.

      As us business solvency, as it ties to unemployment, and therefore the ability to borrow.

      Debt expansion failing to keep accelerating is a key mechanism, as it affects debt creating deposits, borrowing, spending, solvency, etc.

      I suggest the latter three are what end debt bubbles.

      • Agreed, we haven’t seen these effects play out yet. Mainly because we are in the eye of the storm. No real forecasts for earnings recovery, job recovery etc. just fed action on the acute phase.

  7. These idiots are going to push this thing until it actually breaks. Then it happens all at once like in March. I think the only way to play this market is deep out of the money options. If only I could find a broker that trades currency opitions.

  8. Banana ManMEMBER

    Mildly interesting story…Decided to take some cash out and buy a bolt hole. Phoned in advance to nab, wanted to get some cash (less than 100). Rocked up, full scrutiny; where’d you get it, last transaction , what are you going to do with it etc.
    Didn’t actually have the heart to say to old love that I expect lebanon style cash restrictions and a cyprus style bailout because the company she worked for is way over exposed to the mbs derivatives market and they don’t have the capital reserves to mark their book to market. As DLS reminded me today, the best part of valor is discretion. My apologies if i’ve been pushing the tin foil hat too hard.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Next time you are in there ask her to explain the workings of the government deposit guarantee and ask her whether she knows what the $bn cap (in the absence of federal parliament legislating a higher figure) of the guarantee is per bank, how much her “shop” has as its deposit book and what APRA has to declare regarding a bank, for the guarantee to be activated. Tell her if she gets the answers wrong she could be done for make false and misleading statements.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        Man. When she asked me what I was going to do with it (Too much time in NY)I Thought; fk your mother with it, but did not say it. Best part of valor is discretion.

    • Lol I got asked same question when I pulled out $26k to buy a car. Westpac teller asked me why I needed cash. It is none of their f’ing business. But he was nice and so I told him I’m buying a car.

  9. Banana ManMEMBER

    FFFNQ. My reccy would be to get as close to bush tucker man and his merry band of psychos. LSWCHP should know what i’m talking about and might want to explain further or not. If you are into bush tucker man it’s worth researching. I’m more of a Malcom Douglas guy. All Hail. Malcom .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujZjcUTAreQ

    • I remember the bush tucker man. We did a 6 month round oz trip in 88 while I was at high school, so we watched those shows religiously

    • Watched most of his shows and stopped watching outback shows when new generation weekend warriors started pushing expensive gear rather then teaching people how to actually survive in the bush.

    • Locus of ControlMEMBER

      Good link – thanks.
      Grew up with Bush Tucker Man, Bush Mechanics, etc. as a kid. Probably explains why I ended up in the Top End as an adult and may go some way to explaining why I spent a pleasant half-hour this evening foraging Billy Goat Plum at a nearby reserve…

      • DodgydamoMEMBER

        hope you then had to drive your busted three wheel and one branched car home using the windscreen washer as a fuel pump

    • I knew a bloke…Warrant Officer…who was a jungle survival expert and trainer. He’d go into pubs and have a few beers and then he’d bet somebody that he’d eat something …something horrible like a big moth or bug of some kind fluttering around. Of course some chump would take him up on it, and he’d instantly gobble down the bug or moth or lizard or whatever. People watching would gag and vomit on the spot. He always made a mozza.

      Those were the days. Men were men, etc… I sure do miss ’em.

  10. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-middleton+grange-132713946

    Back from my walk and just saw For Sale sign with sold sticker where there was no sign at all until today. I use this stretch every day. Anyway it sold for $890k and from memory these houses were selling for $920k of the plan around early/mid 2016. By mid 2017 when we hit the peak this house would have sold anywhere between 1.1-1.2m. Prior to covid 19 it would have sold for around $950k and that is up until early Feb as people in these areas are tards and have delays.

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      @Niko That place sold June 2015 for $814,000 according to property history , after 5 years of interest (if not rented) they would be under water / near even.
      Should count their blessings..

      • I was sure those houses we being built in 2016 and form memory they were selling around $900k +/-40k. I might be wrong but I am absolutely sure in 2017 those houses were selling circa $1.1m. I house just 200m from there sold for $1.05m in 2018/19 I think and that was when prices were already down – before the elections.

      • can you send me a link please. we moved into the area Aug 2015 and I don’t think those houses were finished then.

      • wasn’t rented and if she wanted to sell in 2017 and he did not agree.. They did throw some furniture 2-3 weeks ago so this sale was done in a hurry. There was no For Sale sign at all.

    • On the flip side I’m seeing stuff like this near me sell for much more than it should
      52 Narr-Maen Drive, Croydon Hills, Vic 3136 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-croydon+hills-133123830

      Plus when walking the dog this morning, I saw a Chinese couple face timing or tiktoking or whatever Chinamen ladies do. To someone back in China, no idea if this means Chinese buying is going on? But they were showing the area/streets on camera like they were home shopping.

        • Could be indeed. But my area isn’t where I thought they were buying. It is a lovely spot though and prices in the area haven’t really taken a big hit here yet. So not sure what to make of it.

  11. If some tards wanna keep spam posting about crud and acting all superior I’m officially starting the Green Thumb insurgency. I will no longer hold back on gardening talk, endless gardening talk from here to eternity and any who dare to complain will have their education questioned while I avoid their valid critique.

    So to start things off – Anyone tried out the ryobi one plus cylinder mowers? I was all set on buying one as I need a new drill as well so figured why not get on ryobi system and kill two birds with 1.5 stones. Read some reviews and they’re quite mixed. Have 3 small lawns so don’t need a beast, even considering an unpowered cylinder.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        I reccy makita. 18/36 v you should see the range. The gift that keeps on giving. -Bike whhat. nigga pls

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I think you’re the third ownership of EGO by the shut-ins. Had mine over three years now. Battery not as strong but still kicking about 80%.

        Only half an acre could draw me back to petrol. Unless…

        https://meangreenproducts.com/

        Oops…better if you put the right linky…

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Nice – That MeanGreen gear is impressive. I’ve had the EGO mover and line trimmer for nearly 3 years now as well – been great. Would never go back. Even the line trimmer is genius with the self threading head. It’s too easy.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Got an EGO mower. It’s great being able to store it vertically and it’s so quiet. Got the EGO hedger too. It does 50m of 2.5m high hedging on a single charge.
            They are the gateway drug to electric cars. The MeanGreen looks great too.
            (PS Hedges look great, but they are a shvt tonne of work to maintain. And yeah, I use a laser level to cut ‘em straight. 😎)

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            “They are the gateway drug to electric cars.” That’s so true. The whole stuffing around with fuel and combustion and maintenance seems normal because it was the status quo for so long. But honestly, the electrric kit is better on every metric, just make sure you get a good one. Some of those cheaper ones in Bunnings are hopelessly underpowered – a bit like a Tesla vs a Volt.

    • get a lamb. when it puts roughly 20-25kg you have food. then start over again.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Practical Niko. I have always said that is one advantage of a horse over a motor vehicle. You can always eat the horse if you break down out in the sticks. Try doing that with your rusting hi lux!

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        Where I come from the natives used to string up the chine in the tree like a larder and cut bits off them. Tasted better than whitey. For real. Before my time, but still fo real.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Electric lawn mowers eh?

      I gotta ask,…would Guys give another Guy a foot massage?
      I mean there is nothing effeminate about 2
      Blokes giving each other a foot massage?,… Or an Electric lawn mower?
      Right?
      https://youtu.be/KCO-SBPTF5E

    • I did some garden work today. End of the yard was kind of wasted. So I am putting some planter boxes in.
      https://imgur.com/a/Lpd6LYI

      Mum is giving me a hand (she’s the gardening expert) and we’ve laid out the stones and excavated 4 square areas for the planter boxes to go on.

      Worst part is that I have to wheel barrow down all the stuff from the top of the property. Some workout. I’ll be feeling it tomorrow.

      • Is that the Labrador that survived cancer or whatever it was? looking very nice and loyal.

        • Yep, That’s Datsun the Lab. He was diagnosed with cancer (osteosarcoma) at age 3. He will be 7 this year in November. Considering they gave him months to live at the time. He’s doing pretty well. :). He was looking at me to let him out the back gate to run in the reserve. It was getting toward the end of the day when he’s usually taken for his afternoon/evening walk. :). We are blessed he’s still with us, but I attribute it down to a lot of love, raw food diet and lots of good exercise. Plus of course a $30k+ vet bill. 🙂

  12. Banana ManMEMBER

    Banana Plan.
    Close borders.
    Eradicate fake flu.
    Send international resource rapists packing.
    Brace for destabilised currency.
    Count projected oz of gol oil gas and figure out currency mechanism.
    default.
    Return to sovereignty, show a guiding light with the reestablishment consititutional gold and silver ratio mandated and watch our island flourish.

  13. Banana ManMEMBER

    I would rather shake hands and die than bump elbows (even though I like elbow bumps, that’s not how you seal a deal here)

  14. The Traveling Wilbur

    Reckon I’ve cracked this fake flu COVID conspiracy to run down the value of Australians’ Super.

    Allow special dispensation to the proles to take out billions of dollars invested in previously eye-wateringly profitable brain-dead can’t loose markets, then trick them into redeeming as much of it as possible into a falling market, only for that market to rapidly inflate at the tail of the Super withdrawals so that punters buy *back* into Super using post-tax dollars, only for markets to then…

    And what could possibly happen next, eh?

  15. just finished watching first contact and checked what is going on.. that 10min candle chart of the poo is really depressing now. I am going for sleep.
    by tomorrow will be 67c.

  16. oh.. also my son was tested today as he showed covid 19 symptoms and results just came through as negative. at least I can sleep without stressing. but amazing how fast he got the results and how late these people work as he just got the sms now.