Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Despite the rising tensions with China and the West over Hong Kong and the and a long weekend for US markets, risk is going all in again in Asia, starting the week with a flourish outside of the Middle Kingdom.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is off a handful of points, still hovering above the 2800 level, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.4% in a relatively smooth follow through from its rout on Friday, currently at 22835 points. A clear breakdown of what was firm support at the 23300 point level, turning this sideways move into something more interesting but not yet over:

Japanese share markets shot out the gate, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.8% higher to 20741 points, while the USDJPY pair was able to properly open without a big gap this morning, lifting slightly going into the London open, as it tries to get back to its previous mid week high nearer the 107.80 level:

The ASX200 was the big performer as traders return to their desks in full alongside the economy, pushing the market up 2% to close over the 5600 point level, breaking out with gusto!  Meanwhile the Aussie dollar has remained slightly depressed on the weekend gap open, bouncing a little here off the 65 handle from its rollover on Friday:

Eurostoxx futures are up nearly 1% but it could be a mixed mood tonight with US and UK markets closed for a holiday. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows the broader stock market wanting to push back above the previous highs and make a run for 3000 as Wall Street goes ga-ga:

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  1. UNITED STATES …

    Young People Are Rushing To Leave Big Cities In Favor Of “Less Infected” Suburbia … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/young-people-are-rushing-leave-big-cities-favor-less-infected-suburbia

    There’s no doubt that the long-lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic will include a major shift in how consumers look at homebuying. In fact, have already reported here on Zero Hedge about how many are leaving the city in favor of life in the suburbs, since the virus has spread faster in city areas.

    Now, it looks as though the younger generation is following the cues of the older generation and doing the same. The effects could be pronounced, especially since the younger generation was responsible for the boom in many U.S. cities over the last decade. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Got in after taking 300k from developers, has literally two guys connected to Chinese developers on the council, as well as that emasculated tossbag Nic Reece who is on the board at Uni of Melbourne.

      Surely there’s more unexplored corruption at Melbourne Council than Casey.

  2. What do you reckon the markets would have done today if the Brexit vote had happened now rather than in 2016?

    Up 3%?

    • DingwallMEMBER

      ASX up 2% on what? It’s hilarious along with the fact the world’s most innovative bourse now includes Afterpay which at this rate will be bigger than the banks soon…. go Australia!

      • I think it may be my farts that are causing the ASX to rise. There’s been quite a few of them lately and there’s no other plausible explanation.

        If anybody has a a better justification for this nonsense, well, I’m all ears.

        • I am GrootMEMBER

          You’ll have to share the blame with Ermo, who surely by now must be tucking in to his isolation stash of beans.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Once Ive fully consumed my stash (in about 6 mths time) im never eating baked beans again!
            I couldn’t even of load any tins on ebay,…not even at half price!

            Twas a bad investment.

      • I am GrootMEMBER

        Bizarre innit? If the punters can afford to pay the Afterpay debt off within 8 weeks, why not save the money upfront and ask for a 4-6 percent cash discount upfront, given that this is about what the retailer is paying in commission to Afterpay.

        Annualise that. It’d be cheaper to put the discounted purchase price on the credit card and pay it off within 8 weeks. It’s as extortionate as the payday lenders, but doesn’t cop the same flack because the ‘interest’ cost is hidden.

        We are all paying more because of that bulshido.

        • What is your success rate asking for a cash discount of 4-6% at a wide range of retailers ?

          • I am GrootMEMBER

            Granted it tends not to work at big chains like Kmart. Elsewhere quite successful, though I don’t do it habitually except where I feel they are trying it on a bit with the price

            My point is that prices overall would likely be lower if retailers didn’t have to factor in the extra expense of BNPL schemes. The partial offset to this might be a few extra sales made due to offering Afterpay.

          • Jumping jack flash

            Prices would be lower if retailers didnt have to support paying their selected non-slave workers the wages required to take on the enormous quantities of debt that are now essential. Afterpay is just a necessary step because the ordinary people carrying huge quantities of debt around now cant pay the prices in one go.

    • Absolute paucity if rats this summer in northern rivers
      And too eastern browns now I think about it. Saw one 10 footer and not much else

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        GARDENING ALERT !
        Can confirm rat shortage NR.
        I put it down to my vigourous black rat eradication program.
        Don’t want to meet 10ft. Brown
        My Vegie garden was a disaster last year due to rats ploughing the garden nightly going after the numerous worms breeding in the well dunged garden beds.

        • How did you get rid of the rats Bolstrood? I’m a renter so can’t get a dog or cat…

          • Sht loads of ratsak
            Get rid of food scraps
            We have a family of wedge tailed eagles nesting in the ridge line 280 acres across the road
            Neighbour has cats who wander over since we lost our golden retriever
            Also have Eric the Echidna roaming around doing whatever he does (making holes that make #mowerlife hell)
            Pythons help

            But ratsak

            It’s weird coz we had heaps of pecans but not as many avos this year

          • I’ve always relied on the trusty combination of ratsak and big arse traps. After living next door to a drug addled freak who bred rats I can say the combination is very effective on getting the visitors to your property but the most effective is to remove the source, if this isn’t an option remove all forms of access they have to your property, this has to be full on, they can get through some tight spaces. I’ve never had to deal with rats in my garden though.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            SureFire rat poison.
            It is a waxy large pellet, bought from Norco rural store lismore.
            I found it more effective than Ratsack.
            I put it in my Garden shed which is beside the Vegie garden, they were in there as well.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Melbourne, ANU & UQ will be the last ones standing. Melbourne is pretty confident it’ll pick the best and brightest from any Victorian collapses.

  3. Got T-boned on a roundabout today, got out of the car blowing up and it was some old dude and his wife and they were clearly terrified of the singlet wearing tattooed bogan. Softened my anger quite a bit, suprisingly no damage to the mighty Mirage, panel was pushed in but popped straight out.

    • Pfh007.MEMBER

      Do you believe that?

      Bill Gates reads me bed time stories via my Google mini nest but I doubt he controls my brain implant.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        In my almost quarter century of playing (!) the market, I can offer nothing more than the vaguest reason. My theory is that our market rarely performs well without any kind of lead from Wall St, which was closed on Monday. Doesn’t matter what else, we can’t, and never do, think for ourselves in broad terms. My totally unsubstantiated view is that the ASX200 will fall tomorrow. But don’t bet your sheep station on it 😉

        • you are 100% correct. I am very active on ASX and barely look at ASX overall. I do monitor individual companies but don’t bother where overall market is – ASX that is. But I do have screen with US futures flashing at all times for reasons you described.

      • Looked to me like re-opening hopium trading today. Travel stocks (qantass, Webjet, flight centre, Syd airport etc), gambling (aristocrat, crown, skycity), consumer discretionary (HN, JB etc,) all pumped on re-opening hopium today. Hang Seng is about to test its lows again…

        • Yes it’s all bs Les. Flt doing NO business ATM and scru can get screwed for wanting us to open the floodgates before the lockdown

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      I reckon it’s all fake good till there’s a skirmish with chyna or HK goes full retard all of which will happen just when

    • I’d like to think so but I wouldn’t get my gonads on it.

      The so-called markets are immensely volatile and (at least for me) entirely unpredictable based on evidence, logic, experience or any aspect of rational thought. So I’m largely in cash and watching proceedings with interest but no skin in the game.

      It’s been sad missing out on the profits I could’ve made in the last 6 weeks of market exuberance, but I would’ve been a lot sadder if I’d blown my dough.

  4. snakeyeMEMBER

    troubling thing is looks like this breach has retested and looks convincing for a push higher Only issue is the economy, common sense, and the fact we are hard up against the long term trend line. good on anyone getting long here..braver man than me

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Miners have told Scott Morrison a cut to the 30 per cent company tax rate could unleash a $100bn ­investment boom in resources projects across the country.

    https://t.co/zgxxDxKiPr

  6. Asx200 got to be worth a short tmw am. second round covid due soon. Flightcentre up on sfa for eg

      • The market has to be close to tanking. Was trying to figure out if I should buy Somme more bboz or cut my losses and sell

        • Looking to buy put options very soon think retest of 5000 end June to July this market can move fast

    • alwaysanonMEMBER

      That’s where CDK and cdk8s come in. So you can debug Python, the Python to TypeScript conversion, the TypeScript to JSON conversion AND the runtime CloudFormation or Kubernetes errors…

        • alwaysanonMEMBER

          Jokes aside it’s really great – like 10 lines of code turns into 1500 lines of CloudFormation. And now they are doing the same for Kubernetes.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          I don’t know man, writing python to produce yaml to be read by python is getting a bit meta…

  7. migtronixMEMBER

    Little Bourke is getting torn up again, so ask I the guy setting up the obstruction “what’s going on now, this whole thing was torn up one end to the other just 6 months ago”

    “I know mate, that was water this is gas – they just go round and round”

    • DominicMEMBER

      Gotta be a cold war though, right? A hot war means nukes — and crazy expensive real estate in NZ’s South Island.

    • China: “If the US takes us on we’ll… we’ll… we’ll …um… turn around and thump that little guy standing nearby!”

      Real impressive stuff Xi bloke.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Look at America’s numerous proxy wars, support for domestic and international terrorism, destabilisation of Governments, etc, since WW2 and tell me they’re not balls-deep in “fourth generation warfare”.

  8. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Cold or hot. Bad.
    However at least it finally forces us to choose the west. We’ve been attacked by China cold style for 20 years.
    Side with USA military and turn the trade tap to India.
    Painful but necessary. Put steps in place NOW and prepare.

  9. Watching 4 corners…

    Ffs who gets on a cruise in the middle of a pandemic which they all knew was happening. And with multi med issues. Seriously.