Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar still overvalued

A strong finish to the week here in Asia with all stock markets rising in response to the lifting tide from Wall Street overnight as the positive rhetoric surrounding a new Chinese-US trade deal smooths over the stark unemployment situation developing in the US. Tonight’s non-farm payroll (NFP – US official unemployment) will be crucial to imbibe those risk spirits for the rest of May as delusion over the too-soon re-opening of the US economy from the coronavirus continues to settle in around financial circles.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% to 2900 points, while the Hang Seng Index is similiarly up 1% to 24219 points, bouncing off the recent daily lows at 23400 points and setting up the daily chart to re-engage for another breakout next week:

Japanese share markets were the main catalyst for the positive mood with the Nikkei 225 surging 2.5% higher to 20179 points, making a new weekly high and almost breaking its bear market rally high. Meanwhile currency traders are caught in a bind with Yen strength, as the USDJPY pair hovers just above the 106 handle in a very weak swing move that doesn’t have much momentum:

The ASX200 was the relative laggard, closing only 0.5% higher to 5391 points, not helped by a much higher Aussie dollar on the back of a very optimistic SOMP from the RBA released today which sent the Pacific Peso soaring higher after its big lift overnight, now above the 65 handle and making a new weekly high:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up more than 1% going into the London open with the latter market ready again to tackle the previous highs near the 2960 point level, as momentum crosses over into positive territory:

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

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Comments

  1. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    The markets are like a duck paddling with 2 broken legs.
    Looks calm on the surface, but underneath a lot of pain and chaos without achieving anything.

    If anyone can explain REA up 7.7% based on that horrific update with no detail and a lot of hope, let me know. That place could be out of business based on the number of jobs already gone. Maybe they have bots running it now, or Homer Simpson’s drinking typing bird sitting in front of the keyboard.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM5q1Pzod1I

  2. Secured a new rental in Enoggera, 1st time I’ve lived northside of Brisbane and a bit more family centric suburban than I’m used to but should be good. Double the size of my current place and only $10/wk more. Some lordylands are smart and discounting, others aren’t smart – current lordyland only offered 4.3% reduction and boom I’m gone. Life is looking good for this drunken unemployed bum.

      • LSWCHPMEMBER

        Yeah, I think so too.The S&P, ASX, whatever are completely detached from reality and I don’t want any part of it. The situation is incredibly volatile, and next week things could skyrocket or go utterly to hell. Who knows?

        It would’ve been nice to make a bunch of money over the last 6 weeks or so. It would’ve been soul destroying to lose it.

        I bailed out before the crash and I’m up about 5% YoY so I’m quite happy to sit on the sidelines and have one less source of stress in my life.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I’m still kicking myself I didn’t choose last Saturdays’ winning lotto numbers.

      Oof! There you go – just kicked myself again.

  3. haroldusMEMBER

    Holey fvck just finished work after starting at 7am.

    I’m sure you do more work working from home, you can’t just sit there pretending.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I am always at work. Even when I’m collecting payments in lieu of rent I’m working. I enjoy that aspect of my job.

      So what do you enjoy about your job being an IT monkey?

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Mostly the twin joys of achievent and ownership.

        And the satisfaction you get from good work well done.

        Ahahahaahhahahahalolloololllollool…….

        *sigh*

        I always wanted to be a lion tamer.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Data reporting in SQL for internal and external clients, data table maintenance, and sort of looking after one major process (not programming but looking after the users in terms of their inputs -> program -> outputs).

            Because I am a grumpy [email protected] I write in Telnet, not these other newfangled skins. Sometimes I like to run queries from the command line.

            So I’m not a programmer. And not a big data guy. Just a maintenance and reporting grunt with occasional support. A cockroach really, in the IT scheme of things.

            I’d be fvcked anywhere I didn’t know the data structure.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            But today I spent the arvo testing for the BAs because they were “too busy”.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            ^^ whatever all that was is the reason why you don’t have an extensive choice of relations!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            ^^ hey, he’s got access to more relations in that sphere than are dreamt of in heaven.

            He’s even very select-ive about them.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Don’t worry about him reus.

            I’m more discrete in my relations. First we have the group, and then we establish order. Sometimes we commit.

    • Mate, in my last job I was working like that for the last 3-4 years. I was paid a fortune, but utterly burnt out. More to life than working.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    All of you will be happy to know – my comments go to spam now. Let’s see how this goes.

    Edit: Looks like I’m accepted again, a little, but the posts I wanted to do have gone off into the ether!

  5. haroldusMEMBER

    Also I know you guys can’t get enough of my garden meanderings, so here’s a bit more.

    Deliveries look like they are catching up. I got a second Diggers delivery within a working week, and an Enfield Produce (vermiculite/coir/manure etc) within a couple of weeks.

    And finally those microgreens I ordered originally look like they are ready to be shipped.

    And my Urbipod is on the way across the nullabor (https://www.urbotanica.com/products/urbipod-full-spectrum-model-free-starter-kit)

    Thanks to Divya for the tip!

    I’m going to use it to develop seedlings to stop them getting leggy.

  6. migtronixMEMBER

    “Currently 8 people are in hospital, including 6 patients in intensive care.”
    No change for 3 days. No. Change…

    Don’t go visit mum but you’ll kill her because all the hospitals are swamped.

    • I got cut fingers from changing the halogen globe on the missus Mazda 3. I hate the bloody retaining springs in them. Such a pain in the arse.

      Modern cars just have no space for such activities. If I was a mechanic I would have thrown spanners.

        • SwampyMEMBER

          Brother in law has an EH (and the same model Ferrari as in Magnum PI, and a Macan, and a Rangey), anyway , got me thinking I wouldn’t mind an older Holden or maybe an XP, XD etc (used to have an XF Fairmont Ghia godddd it was a POS)

          • LSWCHPMEMBER

            @John I had an XE Falcon wagon that make me swear I’d never buy another Ford…all the fcuking door handles fell off among other things.

          • XD/XE’s are known for crap door handles lol.. it was a character trait.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I’m sure you know this Gav, but for everyone else out there… see one of those springs and just run. You’ll do less damage to yourself and the hardware you’re fixing / trying to fix.

        They’re a cheap sh1t solution for holding stuff in place firmly, and for being inserted already in place along with the *whole unit* the springs attach to, during assembly.

        Until the spring rusts out and fail, and some poor sucker has to replace the thing the spring was restraining *while* the unit the spring was in is still in place. And looses fingers along the way.

        And spanners.

        • Springs… I have pulled apart the starter assembly on lawn mowers and edge trimmers which are a spring loaded thing.. drives you nuts! Better to buy the whole assembly already put together for not much more money. I hate fecking around with springs!

  7. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Spectacular full moon out tonight – if the pub was open and I was again young and single all my mates would still get the crazy girls

    • SwampyMEMBER

      Flower moon
      Last super moon this year
      Been epic on the northern rivers
      The moon rises over the Pacific have been amazing

      Masked the eta aquariids meteor shower tho

  8. Just took a quick walk to the shop and now understanding why the flu spreads so bad each year. Idiots everywhere yawning, sneezing coughing with uncovered mouths and then when not epically aspirating, touching mouth with hands and no one was even attempting to stay 1.5m apart. We’re only just starting to relax the lock down here in qld and people are just straight back to normal, if there’s any asymptomatic carriers Brisbane is going to have a massive outbreak, if that doomsday scenario doesn’t happen I’m still expecting a huge flu season.

    • Won’t the measures used to prevent Corona Virus also result in the flu not spreading much? If it is not already in the country, how is it going to get here?

    • Arcadia Planitia

      Yeah – can’t see us getting past Stage 1 of ScummoSafe plans before October.

      Just hope we at least shed a few vybrants over the winter. That would be a step forward.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Rode over to Ringwood today along the Koonung trail. Going by the amount of groups in parks on the way this thing will blow up again pretty quickly. The restrictions are off even though Lieutenant Dan says otherwise.

      Also need to get fitter. Some dick going too hard on his road bike clipped a young girl and bowled her over. Didn’t stop. There’s nothing more frustrating then thinking about ways you’re going to punish someone while they’re slowly pulling away from you. Had my camera on though. Photos will be circulated.

    • truthisfashionable

      Took the little one for her checkup today, the medical centre was empty… Or so I thought.

      Seems if you have a kid you can sit inside, if you are an adult you have to wait outside in the walkway to the major shopping centre.

      What a brilliant way to protect your staff and externalise the risk.

    • Had to pop into Westfields at Hurstville to get some chicken feet today. I’ve avoided Westfields the last few months. Couldn’t believe the amount of people in there. No way could you keep 1.5 m from everyone. I was trying to hold my breath as much as possible. I got in and out as quick as I could. Lots of shops shut/closed during the middle of the day but still packed with people. Admittetly most of the asians were wearing masks but still too close contact for me.

  9. TailorTrashMEMBER

    So I went to my hair dresser this week
    Still open and looks to be doing a ripping business
    Asked about business
    Looks like she engineered or had a 30% decline to qualify for the job keeper payments
    ( according to her ) apparently this is not re checked once you initially qualify
    So once you get the $1500 per employee per week rolling in for 6 months you can put pedal to the metal and grab all the revenue you can

    If this is so …..then 6 months of taxpayers paying the wages and grabbing full on revenue if available it’s got to be a nice little earner for some ……my hair dresser seemed to think so ………she was feeling very upbeat …….

    ….not sure if there will be tax office auditing and clawback ………but this Straya ……if it’s easy money ……a rort is not far behind

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Mate it’s the wonderful bunch of coconuts in close proximity to my face ……helps to strengthen ones self control ……I’m sure Reusa’s hair dressers don’t expect such reserve…..

    • Asked Mrs Nut the accountant type and from this point on she has to prove to the ATO fortnightly that her business is down 30% against the same time last year. To keep receiving JobKeeper, she has to keep cooking the books. That’s fraud and the ATO have some delightful penalties not including a personal visit from the every friendly ATO investigation staff.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        That’s sounds better …..my hairdresser probably relies on her accountant and doesn’t quite understand the details ……but nothing surprises me in Straya
        when it comes to dumb policies that can be rorted .

        • PedrosMEMBER

          I think your hairdresser is right. Once qualified that is it…. I’ve taken this from the ato website….

          “If you work out that you qualify for JobKeeper payments for the first fortnight because your turnover has declined by the relevant amount, you remain eligible and do not need to keep testing turnover in following months. However, you will have ongoing monthly reporting requirements”

          …this is straya….

        • adelaide_economistMEMBER

          I think you missed the bit from your link where it states:

          “However, there are ongoing monthly turnover reporting requirements.”

          As I noted below, with STP the ATO can effortlessly (automatically) detect this stuff. It doesn’t require a human being to manually go sifting for it.

          • CCP Pure Evil

            Your “accountant type” wife has it wrong.

            You continue to report your turnover figures each month but only need to be down 30% in the initial month you register to qualify until September.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Just to add to this – the ATO now has STP, which is basically real time payroll information remitted to the ATO (or as close as you can get with that many transactions). Even if the hairdresser ‘gets away’ with their plan (or ignorance), come tax time the ATO will reconcile the year and able to detect the periods when the 30% decline YoY wasn’t in effect (since the timing of payment info given to the ATO are so frequent now) and at best she’s going to get a big tax bill and at worst – depending on politics, like if there’s a close election due or not – much worse things they will do to her.

      • CCP Pure Evil

        You have it wrong. You only have to be down 30% in the first month you nominate to qualify.

        Once you qualify you get it until the end of September.

      • triageMEMBER

        You sure that is right Nutty. I listened in on a webinar with an assistant commissioner for the ATO and I thought she made clear that once a business is assessed by the ATO as being eligible that stays the case for the duration even if things pick up in the interim. I might have misheard what she was saying but at the time the message seemed crystal clear. edit: yeah, what everyone else is saying.

        • My understanding is it evolves around the fortnightly payments and the monthly “declaration”. There’s only a one time eligibility test test however there is a monthly employer “declaration” to the ATO that’s not a re-evaluation but an estimate of future earnings and employee movements. This goes along with the fortnightly payments from the government and any subsequent payroll reconciliation. I’ll try and grind more from Mrs Nut, they get all sorts of advice from the professional bodies.

          https://www.ato.gov.au/General/JobKeeper-Payment/In-detail/JobKeeper-key-dates/

  10. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    OK, so I’ve got my family of 5 to travel (booked in Jan as usual) to Coolangatta on Virgin in early October (live in Melbourne so will be snow white cold after the next 5 months)…… chances of this happening?
    My gut feel is virus is going crazy post open DOMESTIC gates but economy must keep moving so…… three opinions needed:
    1. Will WE BE ALLOWED to?
    2. should we?
    3. Will my virgin tickets be worth anything?

    Given info from now…… Place YOUR BETS!

  11. Listening to Morrison today. You can tell he is on a massive power trip. Bet you he felt like God telling people when and what they can do and at what time.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Which is all the more ridiculous for him given that the vast bulk of his statements boil down to ‘peer pressure’ or ‘guidance’ as almost all the lockdown laws are entirely within the purview of the state governments.

    • Trip all he wants but Glady and Dan said “yeh, nah.” Even Andy Barr said “in our own time.” Pretty much all the state leaders have their own interpretations that diverge from Scotty from Marketing’s plan.

  12. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Good old Dan Andrews …..does he really know what he is doing …….

    “With China’s development and China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, the country now has many companies, projects and people overseas, and securing their safety wherever they go, especially when emergency crisis occurs, will be the mission of the Marine Corps, Li said “

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187575.shtml

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      People like Clem love this stuff. They spend their entire life publicly dissing entire swathes of the population knowing full well eventually someone will get agitated enough by it to respond in a ‘non politically correct’ way – and then virtue signalling can ramp up in earnest as she plays both school ma’am and innocent victim. Can you imagine living inside Clem’s head? It must be absolutely terrifying.

    • SwampyMEMBER

      Nope sorry if you’re going to be a fkwit and send stuff like that ….. she could have probably contacted him back as he’s just 14
      Hope he learnt a lesson

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