Kohler: US close to economic and social collapse

This has been bothering me a lot too. Via Alan Kohler:

A number of things flow directly from the collapse in employment in the US. Inequality is set to widen dramatically because the worst affected are the poorest, most marginalised; there is now a health time bomb ticking because most Americans’ health insurance comes from their employer – no job, no cover…

Holding the country’s nerve in the face of such a devastatingly fast rise in unemployment would be a huge challenge for the highest quality political leadership, but America has the misfortune to be led by a hopelessly incompetent narcissist incapable of providing even a semblance of consistently responsible leadership.

…It’s exacerbated and complicated by the fact that COVID-19 has become a matter of bitter left-right culture wars, with the far right taking to the streets, with guns, to protest the lockdowns and declare they won’t do it. That’s happening to some extent in Australia and elsewhere, but nothing like it is in the US.

…Meanwhile the Trump Administration is rushing towards a cold war with China, far more aggressively and dangerously than it did with tariffs over the past couple of years.

…In general America appears to be on the precipice of a major economic depression and social collapse, and this has now gone to the top of the list of dangers from the pandemic, daylight second.

Sadly this spot on:

  • how does the US recover as the virus runs amok during re-opening?
  • how does Trump hold the place together without crashing markets via revitalised trade war?
  • what happens as social cohesion comes under immense strain heading into the election?

None of these questions have clear answers.

Buy US stocks!

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. Who knows, this might be the genesis of public universal healthcare in the US.

    If so, the US will go from being the best country on earth to the bestest country on earth.

      • I still think Russia to be one of very few countries that will come out less damaged than rest of the world. People still don’t accept or don’t know that Russia imports less than any other country on the planet. This means they have domestic manufacturing that is geared towards domestic (thanks to US sanctions) market and will not get impacted from global slowdown – not as much as China’s, Japan’s or South Korea’s economies who depend way too much on exports.
        Oil is about 12% of Russia’s total gdp and this will have an impact as Oil is also Russia’s biggest export. But this will not be mortal wound for Russia.
        US for example will have to invest massively to bring it’s manufacturing back from China. Most won’t come back but go to another country but some will be back. This means more debt to invest in new plants etc..
        From what I understand Russia is self sustaining and therefore will suffer less in a world of protectionism. Geopolitically this will actually work in Russia’s favor and against current US and EU globalist believes.
        And Russia has almost no debt.
        Just my thoughts.. time will tell.

        • I don’t know about the self sufficiency bit, they are very reliant on external demand for their exports and on inward foreign investment if they want to build anything new. A bit like Aus actually but with more weaknesses in terms of institutions, education levels and productivity – scary eh?

          Most importantly the virus is going to fck Russia hard, which is the major problem, and it doesn’t have the strong institutions and resilience of a democracy, it’s too reliant on one bloke to keep everything together. So yeah it might be fine but it’s fragile, Which means if something goes wrong the whole place could break.

          • you and I have very different views on Russia for while now. will be interesting who will be right. I am very convinced it will be me but I’ve been wrong in the past.. way too many times.
            you might be right about Russia to be too dependent on one man and I thought of that many times. My view (and I am not too convinced on this but it is current view) is there has to be larger group running Russia in the background – FSB or part of FSB. Putin did not rise to power on his own or by luck. He was put there, he was selected.

        • Economics 101

          Yes they do – its 13% of GDP – that includes public and private.

          I mean what hope does Russia have being the worlds largest resource and energy reserve sitting next to the worlds largest population and largest manufacturer and exporter. Can’t see it.

        • St JacquesMEMBER

          Yep, agree. Life might get simpler and and they won’t be able to import all those nice luxury consumer goods anymore, but they’ll get by on their home made basics and they don’t have to worry about affording to pay for imported resources and food. And putting up with hardship is a big part of their ethos.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I reckon you arent far wrong. VVP was always about exposing the rank hypocrisy of the neoliberal scions of the US & UK.

      That doesnt mean I trust/agree with/ anything he has or hasnt done in Russia – and there is tonnes I disagree with – but right from 1998 (when he became PM) he has been pointing to the

      ….. utter bullshit of the US line vis Russia (and wanting to position missiles basically looking over Russia)
      ……utter bullshit of the US line (and a number of US Presidential promises) vis NATO expansion
      ……utter bullshit of the US line vis ‘democracy’ (sure he touts ‘managed democracy, but I reckon he personally is about the most electorally aware and alert leader on the planet, and has a far better sense of what is electorally tolerable in Russia than Trump in the US)
      ….and the complete and utter bullshit of the US approved version of ‘capitalism’. It is about feeding society to the 1%ers, and while no doubt that is happening in Russia too – and VVP has simply created a [slightly] different bunch of 1%ers – Putin recognised it for the corruption and insider trading which had carved up Russia for a decade, and plausibly takes a contrasting position, and makes sure his oligarchs play (national) ball, which provides some sort of spinoff for the man on the street..

      8 Years ago I left Russia – mainly to make sure my kid was raised in an English speaking environment – and came back to Australia, to the utter bullshit of Gillard, Rudd, Abbott (and Hockey), Turnbull and Morrison, and their real estate speculation economic bequest for future Australians. One of my closest friends (also a business journalist married to a Russian) left about the same time, and went back to New York.

      We caught up by skype on the weekend. 8 years ago he loathed Putin and the Putin regime. I was always different insofar as while I didnt like the VVP regime I didnt like any likely alternatives, and didnt like the NeoLiberal sellout of the ‘Western World’. He is moving back in the next few months (assuming travel is again possible – and I dont think it will be). When I asked him why he is going back he replied to the effect that Trump is reason enough, and offered the observation that neither the Democrats or anyone else in the Republicans is likely to bring about meaningful change. Then he noted that his kid (early teens) would get far better healthcare in Russia than in the US (despite the rampant corruption in the Russian medical world), and would get a better state education (in Russia) than he would be likely to afford in the US. When all is said and done, probably about half of all Americans would probably get better healthcare and education in Russia.

      My take would be that whatever comes after Trump (be it next year or in 4 years) needs to bring about major change, but the only way to bring about that change is likely to be a need to bring about something akin to civil war.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        Just put down a book (“Unhinged”) by DJT’s ex Assistant Director of Communications. She describes him as (among other things) “devoid of empathy”.

      • Economics 101

        Occupy Wall street was on the verge of something big. It was so easily coopted into nothing though. BLM came along – and again.

        The US has learned very well how to break down movements by sowing disunity through competing agendas – its just so easy to do – check out the ALP and their identity politics – fractured beyond repair.

        Point being – whatever happens, there will be a revolution how close the disparate interests can come together to form a common interest against the 1% is all that matters.

        What holds the tide back has been the wealth effect from house prices, and this interesting aside in health care.

        A steep lack of jobs in the US will see some unity.

        Anything that binds the people on class lines rather than skin tone and genitals will be enough.

      • BigDuke6MEMBER

        My best friend is half Russian.
        Wow don’t mention Yeltsin to him… he goes nuts.
        He’s got me into frozen vodka and black caviar. More the horse than the “food”.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          about 6 years ago here at MB I left a commment (or 3) going into why the Russians are quite OK with Putin and why they have become increasingly sceptical of the ‘West’ which was part of something I wrote for some financial types a month or so earlier.

          Around the buoy nyet again in dealing with the Russians – The Russians, Ukraine, and the West in the age of Putin.

          https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/07/sunday-macro-july-13/#comment-419708

          Yeltsin, is a very very big part of that, or to be more specific the methods employed to keep Yeltsin in power in 1996 (when the ‘free’ media got bought – when Russians knew he was a drunkard, had a corrupt family pilfering state assets and was front man for a lot of neoliberal carpetbagging) and the outcomes of his tenure as President. 1998 and all that. The one thing Putin can point to the scoreboard on when it comes to Russians, is that for 21 years (he was Yeltsin’s 3rd PM in 18 months) he has made sure Russians are seeing some form of living standard progress. The one thing a lot of Russians recall about Yeltsin and his administration (which had the neoliberal agenda on board) was the economic implosion of 1998.

          • BigDuke6MEMBER

            He’s the most intelligent person I know and I’m sure would agree with everything you have said

      • I think that is a fair representation of things during the time line and yes Putin did a FDR on some oligarchs about the mother country E.g. play as you will in the big global market but don’t screw Russia. A few early on tested it and where hung out to dry.

        • when Putin bought out the owner of Chelsea he put these conditions.. numbers may not be correct as it has been many years ago but I am sure conditions are spot on.
          1. $9bn must be kept in Russia and % of it to be invested in real businesses – manufacturing etc..
          2. $9bn he can take them anywhere he wants or stick them all up his.. no one will stop him.

          So yes, they all have to play ball to a point and invest about half of their money in Russia.. if we use Abramovich as reference.

      • tuohyredMEMBER

        Hi, Ur comment is so apposite. Would U consider tweeting? I see U cant be messaged. Did U ever come across Harry Gordon and son Michael? Harry was known to family as Mickie, son of Dingy the boxer who dropped the Parish from Harry Gordon Parrish

  2. The BystanderMEMBER

    >It’s exacerbated and complicated by the fact that COVID-19 has become a matter of bitter left-right culture wars, with the far right taking to the streets, with guns, to protest the lockdowns and declare they won’t do it.

    The sad thing is that the second the tables are turned and the far-left are on the streets refusing to follow lawful orders, the right wing will be demanding these ‘traitors’ be arrested, beaten and shot in order to preserve the Republic.

    • “refusing to follow lawful orders”

      The lockdown is not constitutional. Like gun restriction laws.
      So the “hard right” would still be right in both cases.
      Not saying that they are or are not acting in the best way, but you are out on a limb to paint the picture you do.
      It is opinion & assumption, not a statement of fact.

    • Economics 101

      Exactly. Like the way the left have been peacefully beating up people on campus for being “alt-right”, calmly rioting as an expression of free speech by burning buildings down to stop speeches from people they don’t like, and using their civil right to beat up anyone who they disagree with.

      Yup – AntiFa have been a real expression of American rights and civil liberties.

  3. – This is NOT going to help the chances of El Trumpo getting re-electd. But it would have killed the re-election of ANY resident of the White House.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Joe (Who am I? Where am I?) Biden

        If you thought Trump getting elected was a little out there, wait till a kiddy-fiddler with Alzheimers takes highest office.

        • Biden isn’t winning against Trump. The Dems so desperately didn’t want Bernie that they are throwing the election (or waiting out Bernie to replace Biden with another). Of course… this all makes America sound like it has two parties, which it doesn’t… but Trump ain’t exactly status quo either but for the score sheet, better the Dems our out of office for this one.

          Besides… what has Biden said / done from his bully pulpit? NOTHING. Zero leadership there and he’s consistently being out-left’ed by Trump for goodness sake.

          • The plan is pretty obvious. They couldn’t have Bernie so they really backed Biiden to get him across the line with the sole purpose of pushing him out and replacing him with their own ‘special’ candidate who led up all the lying devious scumbags in the first place.

      • – Biden is “losing his marbles” bit by bit. Sad story.
        – In 2016 something very revealing happened. During the election campaign the popularity of both Hillary (warmonger) Clinton and El Trumpo fell while the popularity of Obama rose. I think Obama could have won a 3rd term in office “hands down”. I have the same opinion right now. I would prefer Obama over both Biden and El Trumpo.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Why? Obama is a more charismatic version of Albopansy i.e. largely ineffectual.

          His legacy is Obamacare – a universally acclaimed abortion.

          Also, Obama was the first Pres to be at war for every day he was in office. Hardly glittering credentials.

          • – I know that Obama wasn’t happy at all to spend so much on the military and wanted to reduce military spending but there were simply too many people who didn’t want to reduce that spending.
            – The war in Libya (2011) was NOT Obama’s war but it was an idea from the French government and one Hillary (Killary) Clinton. She fought tooth and nail to convince Obama to start that war (and won in the end). I also know that Obama is say 2012 or 2013 said that the Libya war was a mistake.

  4. It’s an issue to be sure, but if they just let the pandemic rip, the economy will be stuffed anyway, so what can they do? If you belong to any forums where the US members discuss politics, it’s seems to be best described as a schism. It doesn’t help matters that a lot of people seem pretty… unsophisticated, and refuse to countenance anything that doesn’t align with their worldviews as being substantive or worthy of consideration.

    Trump doesn’t help of course. The man’s a divisive imbecile who’s only real interest is in Donald Trump, rather than displaying anything remotely resembling leadership.

      • Modern American “politics” are pretty unsophisticated; “You’re either with us, or against us.”

        For example… ask a non-Trump supporter what Trump has done that they agree with or otherwise think is worthy of discussion. The vast majority of non-MAGA’s will recoil at the thought that anything the man has done is worthy. If that isn’t unsophisticated I really don’t know what is.

        For the record… Asking if NATO is still a good idea, calling out the WHO and the China trade war (that at least got some business leaders thinking of alternatives pre-COVID) are three things that would never of happened under any other president that are at least valid questions / comments.

        • I see the same in Trump supporters….the one’s I know are generally, honestly, a bit nutty….they can be quite intelligent and discerning on some matters, but once it comes to Trump their eyes seem to glaze over, and the man can do almost nothing wrong. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s like a cult.

          • Without a doubt! I thought that was a given 😛

            The point is… the “left” in America was long seen as the “reasonable” side, but that is no longer the case as they have befallen the same myopic optics that has long been thought of the Repubs. #TDS

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          For the record… Asking if NATO is still a good idea, calling out the WHO and the China trade war (that at least got some business leaders thinking of alternatives pre-COVID) are three things that would never of happened under any other president that are at least valid questions / comments.

          But do you really think these were questions asked after spending considerable time thinking about them ?

          • If they are good questions, why does that matter?

            Now… Trump as the champion of these questions… that’s sub-optimal. However, do you really think any status quo politician would be pushing the Wuhan Lab issue like he is? Without his bully pulpit on that, we’d never have gotten the gravity and info we’ve had (with the October closing of the lab being the biggest yet).

    • Scott doesn’t help of course. The man’s a divisive imbecile who’s only real interest is in Scott M, rather than displaying anything remotely resembling leadership. – still makes perfect sense.

    • Michael Attwood

      Explain how a virus which predominantly kills those who do not participate in the economy (the very old and very sick) is going to ruin the economy?

      This is all just politics and virtue signalling gone mad. Without the media hysteria COVID-19 would have come and gone, and been chalked up to ‘a really bad flu’.

  5. >America has the misfortune to be led by a hopelessly incompetent narcissist incapable of providing even a semblance of consistently responsible leadership
    The same hopelessly incompetent narcissist who is also responsible for the bitter left-right culture wars he’s blatantly fostered for his own self-interest in re-election.

    • I would say Trump got elected because of the culture wars. The Left went too far left ie the woke movement Trump came in just in time.
      It is getting harder to defend Trumps actions these days but left unchecked peoples TDS will get out of hand and Trump will get blamed for all the worlds problems. Lets try to stick to reality.

        • Too right. We Americans have a hard right party and a far right party. Narly a political thing can be thought of as “left” by anything but an American standard of that term…

          • Haha, yes! I say this to my Murican Republican friends: “The Dems are centre-right at best/worst, and they are no further to the left – why do keep calling them Socialists?”

            They also don’t like this one: “When you are on the far-Right, everything looks like it is on the Left…”.

    • Oh BS!! Go back as far as Obama and Hillary – corrupt Deep State lawlessness run wild – never mind the hundreds of thousands of deaths and misery caused in various parts of the world just to satisfy their narcissistic instincts. No lie is too great. Then work back from there – yet it is all Trumps fault!! Strewth! Monumental stupidity writ large.

      • LOL. It actually all goes back to the viscious Republican attack on Bill Clinton, who established an attack dog culture, to punish Clinton for a trivial transgression, and this then morphed into the Karl Rove manipulation of the trailer-trash cohort to vote against their own interests and elevate George W, which was then amplified further by Fox News and Cheney in their cynical manipulation of the public to promote a disastrous war in Iraq, which weakened the US and now President Nero fiddles and tweets while Rome burns. There is no doubt that the US has been destroyed by the right.

      • Rubbish. Admittedly Hillary was an easy target to lampoon and discredit, but Trump didn’t even win a majority of the votes. He played on the desperation of the poor and disenfranchised and tricked them with empty promises which he then spectacularly failed to fulfill, instead giving huge tax breaks to the big end of town, his mates and cronies. He’s fostered dissent and disunity from the moment he stepped onto the campaign trail; the minute anything goes wrong he blames someone else by either sacking or starting trade wars; he has no empathy, no shame, no thought for anyone but himself – a thoroughly worthless, corrupt, dishonest narcissistic bully who has overseen the final destruction of the US, begun, I grant you, way before he came to power.

        • And Clinton was just so lovely – everyone in Libya and Syria can tell you that!! Eff me she has murdered hundreds of thousands of people just for her own ego “We came! We saw! He died!””

      • Most people seem to overlook that Trump has been a lot better on Foreign Policy , than Bush the lesser or Obama, No new wars in the Middle East, standing up to China on trade and other issues.
        I can’t speak on domestic policies.
        To qualify that, i ve been hating on Trump since he was a real estate developer in the 80s.

        • Steve1036MEMBER

          Eh? Ripping up the Iranian nuclear deal. Threatening to nuke North Korea on Twitter. Pulling out of Paris agreement. Sure he’s stronger on China but America’s foreign policy standing is significantly reduced under trump.

          • Id argue that the real world effects of 2 of those (as opposed to massive amount s of noise on the internet) are far less than the Invasion of Iraq, the take down and destruction of Libya , the mass destabilizing of Egypt , Syria and the rest of North Africa. The 3rd order effects of this leading to European refugee crisis and arguably Brexit.
            As for Paris climate change that’s a long way out and there are elections and term limits. Its changeable.

          • Steve1036MEMBER

            Fair points.

            Iran though has enabled a nuclear power in a region that is rapidly going to shit (even more than usual). He’s then gone on to antagonise them. He’s also sucked up to and legitimised authoritarian strong men in Hungary, Brazil and Turkey. Though that’s partly exacerbating existing trends.

            Agree Libya was boneheaded. A lot of the other chaos was related to the Arab spring uprisings, while America is always blamed its a bit of a long bow. Also with Brexit. Don’t know how global imbalances and inequality can be put down to Bush/Obama.

          • Libya was boneheaded??????????????????? Strewth!!!!!!! It was and remains EVIL! As above it was just an ego trip for Obama and Clinton trying to make themselves look tough. How many wasted lives and nations do we get to before we get past boneheaded???????????

        • I don’t think its that long of a bow, Obama supported Mubarak’s downfall and the Arab Spring
          https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/01/29/obamas_egyptian_blunder_129477.html
          Leading to the wholesale slaughter of christians and other minority groups, the same would have happened in Syria if they’d been successful.
          Angela Merkel opened the borders to north african refugees on the eve of the Brexit vote, these refugees have historically ended up in Britain. We will never know if that swung 2 % of voters but i suspect it might have. That’s why Farage thanked her in the E.P with his Brexit speech, Similar happened with 5 star in italy, even Soros says that.
          These aren’t out there conspiracy theory the facts are well in the public domain if you care to look.

  6. So Kohler is now a disseminator of wisdom????? FFS Is this newfound worship totally founded on his anti-Trump statement?
    I nhad a small debate with Kohler over this stuff around 15 years ago and tried to explain to him the machinations that were involved. It was of no interest to him as it would have involved him changing his tune in his ra ra newsletter and being a bit unpopular with Australia’s PTB.
    This bloody mess is exactly the result of the policies advocated by Kohler and his ilk over many years – plain bloody stupid.
    “America has the misfortune to be led by a hopelessly incompetent narcissist incapable of providing even a semblance of consistently responsible leadership.”
    Bulls..t! This mess is the result of, in the US case, four decades of monumental incompetence, stupidity, and sheer goddamned evil on a mass scale but particularly in the area of Treasury, FED and Universities. Herb Stein said “If something can’t go on forever – It WILL stop”
    The debt based ponzi, with all its parts and consequences, could not go on forever and it was just a question of which brick wall it would eventually run into. Perhaps this is THE brick wall nobody saw.
    So we need somoen to blame so let’s just simplistically blame Trump and Morrison for it all.
    This sort of stupid simplistic BS stuff is no help to anyone and certainly does not contain any solutions and simply serves to magnify the errors so far made and, in that process, make everything worse.

    • Kohler has been so anti Trump since day dot and I’m surprised MB has referenced him in a story regarding Trump.
      In regards to Kohler I think the statement ‘that in every fear there is a wish’ rings true.
      When listening to commentators talk about the distuction of America it helps to know their views on Trump.

      • Even if Trump is a good leader, the fundamental and enormous challenges in the article remain true. Don’t get distracted into an argument about Trump. Either way The US is in a bit of trouble at the moment.

        I reckon they’ll get through ok (but at what cost?)

        • Trump is not a good leader, but the Australian fools who predict the demise of the USA while riding the back seat are categorically insane.

          • I am more charitable. I say they’re maybe not insane. Maybe just wrong 😉

          • I often wonder if these people even think what the world looks like without the US security blanket.
            The most charitable thing i can come up with is they only think on short timelines <5 years and don't have a good appreciation of history.

          • I am agreeing with you Kods. 😁

            The people who write off america May not be insane, I mean I think they have a case… they’re just wrong !

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Even if Trump is a good leader, the fundamental and enormous challenges in the article remain true. Don’t get distracted into an argument about Trump. Either way The US is in a bit of trouble at the moment.

          The US is remarkably resilient. The institutions are still fairly strong despite all the damage wrought on them, especially in the last few years. For all its operational flaws, the mission statement is powerful, resonant and at a broad level supported by basically everyone.

          As Kodiak regularly reminds us, you don’t need to criticise the US much at all to get an angry American defending it.

          That said, if anything can tremendously fvck the place, it’ll be the Trump triple threat of ignorance, greed and narcissism allied with the increasing hysterical right-wing media and their culture war.

          • Agreed, they are resilient.

            But I am seriously wondering whether their handling of this virus has put a long-term ceiling on their capabilities to keep throwing their economic and military might around the world…

      • Please leave you Trump Derangement Syndrome out of this so we can have an adult conversation. I Understand he makes some people really angry but thats what hes trying to do. Good leader, bad leader its all BS. Up till the virus happened he was doing good job with the economy and taking on China.

        • Narapoia451MEMBER

          When Obama was running a trillion dollar plus deficit during the biggest (then) downturn since the great depression conservatives thought he was the worst economic manager in the history of the US. Shut down the government in big pissy stunt to voice their displeasure. When Trump was running Trillion dollar plus deficits during an economic upswing pre covid he was overseeing a great economy, a true stable genius. (Arguments about him simply riding a trajectory that would have been the same for any president in his term aside)

          I always find the TDS label marvelously ironic.

  7. Certainly a very interesting situation. I personally believe that we can mark the 21st century as pre and post COVID-19. In the same way we view 20th as pre and post 1945. There will be major changes to society following. I found it interesting that the 100 year passing of the Russian Revolution recently came and went with almost no notice. Now almost 100 years to the day we are on the brink of society being torn asunder again.

  8. Kohler’s thought bubble is predictable. It is not analysis. He is feeding his own prejudice as MSM does. COVID didn’t start the culture wars. Trump as POTUS is himself a product of the culture wars, and the MSM has lost control of its own narrative. It was/is the Left who dispute their elected president and back in Nov 16 were throwing bricks in the political capital.
    This isn’t happening in the antipodes. Be mad crazy to believe this rot.

    • And the idiotic msm prejudice is: Everything is apples in Straya and USA going down the gurgler. It’s been this way for 20+ years. Why does DLS feed this beast? I’m about to cut my subscription short. Why read this site full of lunatics when most of the “news” comes from somewhere else?

    • Domain is reporting the US was the largest purchaser of Oz RE over the past year. Unfortunately the US is going through a time of schism and Covid will exacerbate it. Neil Howe’s 4th turning historical thesis on generations is interesting. If he turns out to be correct the US is going through a period of societal renewal, however the process of course takes a couple of decades and is extremely messy. He reckons they are halfway through this process atm and in a decade they will have restructured much of their society and it should serve the interests of the people better than it currently does. Interesting times. It is possible we will pick up some US migrants who don’t want to go through that process.

        • DominicMEMBER

          That would be the obvious destination – they can hang out with Pauline.

          But honestly, we’re so cultured up here these days, Victorians and New South Welshman are moving here in their droves. They’ve seen the light. Hell, does Sydney have a ‘South Bank’? No it does not – it just has a lame opera house and some old bridge. You have to behold Brissy’s ‘Wheel’ – not quite as grand as London’s but somehow classier and more sophisticated – people come from as far as Toowoomba to ride in it – that says it all really.

          Anyway, I’ll leave it there — before I make it sound any more attractive than I’ve done so already and everyone comes.

  9. Economics 101

    Why do you have to ask the question when the answer is already written – over and over and over again.

    It’s called history – what happens when the masses are totally dispossessed, have no power, no input into society at all, are subject to impoverished wages, barely scraping by while the wealthiest elite indulge in ever greater wealth with income gaps ever widening.

    The income gap is the single greatest indicator of revolution – nothing comes close.

    The Gini Coefficient is the SINGLE greatest indicator of violence and crime resulting in revolution of anything ever considered.

    It is THE determining factor in when the guillotines are rolled out, the gallows hammered and the cobble stones drenched in blood.

    Do you think the American elite will instead decide that it would be far better to engage in a socialist agenda and share the spoils of wealth with the seething belly of the now ubiquitous impoverished lower class ?

    Something to behold.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Let’s hope so. Personally I’m betting on the end of the fiat Dollar, so any sniff of revolution will make that outcome a dead cert.

      Covid-19 has already done a massive service in that regard, bringing forward the day by several years.

  10. The world is littered with moronic Australians who think that the US is about to collapse. Why is it that so many of you are inflicted with this mental illness. So little commentary about the US coming out of Australia is worth more than toilet paper.

    • I am pretty pro US but they are facing big big issues right now. Personally (as mentioned above) I back them to get through it but there’s no denying the scale of the challenge.

    • The problem with much commentary in Oz is the lack of historical perspective, which makes it a waste of time to pay attention to. The US is going through some tough times as a society, there is no denying that. It is part of a natural cycle that affects all societies. I have faith in the ability of the Americans to figure it’s sh1t out eventually and make some of the changes it needs/wants. It will be a messy process but what comes after will hopefully serve the needs of the American people. People lose sight of the over arching process of social change and get caught up in a binary short term perspective. Not worth wasting time or emotional energy on.

      • Maybe if Bernie was elected but I’m pretty sure both Republicans and Democrats are going to do absolutely zero to fix this b!tch until they’re having riots worse than 1968.

      • The problem with much of the USA, Oz, MSM and MB members’ commentary is that it fails to take into account that the entire world, including Oz, China, Russia, etc., and even the mighty USA, are now running low on many of the resources our hyper-industrialised, globalised civilisation depend on, including but not limited to soil, water, many minerals and climate (even sand FGS). The focus on right/left politics and economy fails to take into consideration that in the end nature bats last; so by century’s end, and probably way before, we’re stuffed unless some sort of radical and miraculous U-turn occurs soon, probably together with a mass population die-off. So in that context, politics, capitalism, socialism and the economy are human constructs built and dependent on nature’s bounty – which is now collapsing at an alarming rate.

      • it will be hard for US to change without some really serious disruption like civil unrest. Military complex, along with super big corps and rich individuals control all media and all politicians. So it is almost impossible to get elected a person that will put the people’s interests ahead of the 1%.
        Look what happened to Tulsi. She was labeled Russian asset without shred of evidence.

  11. Super Phoenix

    US has always been close to economic and social collapse, or so appears, so what’s new?

    Oh, I know!! With a little help from COVID, Putin can instigate a civil war between the red states and the blue states!!

    • you are right
      whoever lived in USA for more than a year knows that USA always looks like being at the brink of a collapse

      it’s just how they operate, no margin and no pretending. USA will have high initial unemployment but than thanks to large initial cut quickly return to fast job growth.
      Europe and Australia on the other hand by trying to hide real unemployment will take years to get to job growth …

      • Super Phoenix

        The US has always been a collection of the 50 states and has appeared lacking unity. But that is not a bad thing. If all the 50 states uniformly did the same thing, and that same thing was wrong, it would be a disaster.

  12. why would USA fear reopening?
    they are heading into a summer with large portion in dense socially active areas (read NYC and NE) of population already over the infection (around 20 million (out of 60 million) people in North East has antibodies)
    the rest of USA is mostly low density socially distant anyway – no need for extra measures

  13. good luck with a prediction on the demise of the US – the Fed still makes more sense than any other central bank in the world – US stocks and USD a buy until that changes

  14. CCP Pure Evil

    The criticism of Trump’s handling of this is hysterical.

    The whole of Western Europe and the UK have far worse number on a per capita basis yet no criticism.

    Sweden has barely any restrictions at all yet no criticism.

    Instead we have this preoccupation with how Trump has handled the global pandemic.

    Australia and NZ are sparsely populated, low density island nations. NZ has one major city, Australia has about 5 with most people living in suburbs and using cars for transportation.

    Trump cut flights from China early on. Then the Chinese Virus spread through Europe and by then it’s too late for the US to do anything due to hundreds of flights landing each day from Europe.

  15. – Agree. And that’s why it’s more and more likely that the US won’t be “United” anymore somewhere in the (near) future. I think it’s very possible that the US will fracture into say 10, 20, or say 40 separate independent states.
    – But I see could imagine that the australian federation is going to break up into mutiple states.

  16. US stocks are overvalued, the Fed is behaving irresponsibly, and they probably will end up getting herd immunity. In which case, just like writing off assets in the GFC, the American approach of attacking an issue head on – even if unintentionally – may work. Their economy could be roaring back while we are all still getting hit by outbreak-lockdown-outbreak-lockdown….

    I wouldn’t underestimate the US.

    Oh, and the US isn’t Trump. People consistently make the mistake of bashing Trump and conflating him with the country…

  17. The other thing I find interesting is those discussing the orange man forget to mention his captain pick economic advisors … a veritable who’s who of CEO or Sqillionaire land … I mean he did post garden hose cabana boy Kudlow.

    I still light a candle [scented] and wipe a tear from my eyes every night for the release of Scooter Libby – a true patriot!

    • Agreed. I suppose all the countries “with economies that matter”’were at the front so they are coming out of it. It’s the vast mass of poor countries now going to cop it, and in fact we will never know how badly because they don’t have the capacity to test even all the corpses.

      Bangladesh just taking off now. 1000+ cases overnight off a vase of 150000. Gonna go exponential. 161 million people in that country. And that’s only one example.

      Economically not sure how much it will matter, which I know sounds harsh but is also kinda true. Awful eh.

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