Jobs report sees 600k lost

The ABS is out with the April jobs report:

The unemployment rate is a joke, resulting from ABS skullduggery over why less people participated. If the participation rate had been stable the number would have been 9.6%.

Everything else is dire.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

    • Peter PanMEMBER

      Surely someone can’t count… Employment down 600k, unemployment up 100k??? What happened to the other 500k bodies? Did they just give up, got Corona and disappeared???

      • Participation rate fell by 2.4% which seems like a big number month on month.

        Total hours worked fell 9% – that is surely the key number.

        • Engineer TragicMEMBER

          I know the drop was expected but these numbers are pretty brutal!
          I’m with PP, I don’t understand the apparent disparity between employment and unemployment (even allowing for drop in participation). In any case 10% less hours worked is a very revealing number = less $$$ going around.

      • Yep. Those people are on JobKeeper. So the have dropped out of the workforce (lol) hence the lower participation rate.

        In other words the ABS will say everyone on JobKeeper is not working AND not looking for work, therefore not participating and not counted.

        Obviously a joke, the reality is they are effectively unemployed for now and receiving benefits.

        • BrentonMEMBER

          Much worse, A2:

          1. People paid through the JobKeeper wage subsidy: employed

          People who are paid through the JobKeeper scheme will be classified as employed, regardless of the hours they work (e.g. even if they are stood down).

          https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/6202.0main features8Mar 2020

          Half of Australia’s working population is on this program…

          The more you peel back this job report, the more farking horrific it becomes.

          As far as the real economy is concerned, a 2.4% fall in the participation rate is the same as a commiserate lift in unemployment. No income. No loan. No spending.

          This is just 1 month.

          • Ho Lee Fük.

            Ok. So everyone on JobKeeper is “employed” (despite in most cases being idle, on government benefits, and not producing anything).

            Which means the participation drop is people who lost their jobs but aren’t bothering to look for new ones yet (because there’s no point – say you are a gym instructor or a barman or a pilot – you have to wait for restrictions to lift).

            So you can add them straight onto the unemployed number as well.

            Fark me.

          • Post JK (which it seems might now be earlier than Sept) will see it roll off a cliff. Going to be very interesting.

          • So to arrive at a ‘True” UE figure, we need to add job keeper receivers plus people who aren’t looking for work because they can’t because their industry is in lock down. I’d say this figure would be more close to 20% UE rate.

          • Super Phoenix

            That is why JK will not be allowed to discontinue – it will continue with a reduced rate, perhaps nominal $1 or so when the time comes, and those who are on will not be allowed to opt out. Welcome to the Hotel California!!

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        When a person’s entire industry shut down (personal trainer, barista, etc), you are not counted since you’re not ‘actively looking for a job’.

    • It is like Big 4 auditing, everyone knows it is horse$hit. You will only get a qualified review in the year the company can 100% do nothing but go into insolvency. In the meantime the audit fees are great.

      There is a theme with Markets and Main Street being totally unhinged. Cognitve dissonance should abound but I think people want to hold onto what is cosy for as long as possible, hence the govt can get away with a lot up until total system breakdown.

      This is also why people such as Lucy Ellies can get away with saying Aussies have such high levels of part-time and casual work because they exhibit a strong preference for less hours and the market has delivered!

  1. BrentonMEMBER

    Even with JobHider masking the true state of half the workforce, it still wasn’t enough to prevent a monthly blow-out.

  2. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    job keeper is very generous, I would say its worked, but at a massive cost

    • DingwallMEMBER

      I am in shock … it is ploughing downwards…… didn’t the bots get the headlines batsh!t crazy numbers

  3. Based on this clearly accurate number (boom times ahead), why is DoleHider, MortgageHider and GovtBondBuyer still in place..? Surely everything is fine with near full employment.

  4. bzunicaMEMBER

    The participation rate is the big one here. That is where it is getting hidden.

    • Yeah. Looks the official rate would have been close to 10% without the change to the Participation Rate.

    • Super Phoenix

      Call it successful economic management. Of course, successful economic management is about improving the numbers and has nothing to do with improving the real economy.

  5. [RTRS] – ABS SAYS WITHOUT THE FALL OF 489.900 OF PEOPLE LOOKING FOR WORK, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WOULD HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 9.6%

  6. kiwikarynMEMBER

    Is the drop in participation rate due to one parent being required to stay home to take care of the kids? So they’ve lost their jobs but are not looking for work as they have to do childcare or can no longer afford childcare on one income. This will surely change once schools reopen and parents feel confident in sending their kids back.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Only if there is a job to go back to…. but overall that scenario you paint would only be a relatively small proportion

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        If they have a job to go back to then they are still counted as employed. It’s the unemployed that have dropped out of the participation rate. Once the kids go back to school that parent then starts looking for work and will appear again in the stats as officially unemployed. Lots of two income households have lost one income but do not qualify for benefits due to the other partners income, but that person is now doing childcare while the other parent works. I know several people in this situation.

  7. Jeremy Office

    Just another indication that the bureaucracy is completely decoupled from reality.

  8. Who here has actually lost their job in the past 2 months? Maybe it’s not as bad as we think.

    • “I don’t know anyone, or know anyone who knows anyone, who has got this CovidHoax virus. Ergo, it’s a hoax.”
      “I don’t know anyone, or know anyone who knows anyone, who has lost their job. CovidJobHoax.”

      (I know that’s not what you’re saying, I just wanted to make fun of tin foil racketeers)

    • Me. Officially stood down fromjob at wholly owned local council company (manages the council pool/gym faculties) so not eligible for job hider. There’s about 300 of us on jobseeker now. Fun times.

    • Me.
      I used to make money selling veg, meat & preserves at farmers’ markets. Closed either due to indoor gathering restrictions or an abundance of caution on the part of organisers.
      Still employed, I guess, ‘cos the farm still needs working, but working for no income now…

    • Morty Mulgrew

      Me too, business linked to tourism is totally obliterated, along with many here on the Sunshine coast ,presume Gold Coast, Cairns etc is the same

    • Another doleseeker here on the rock’n’roll…”terminated” ( nice choice of parting gesture wording ) formally on the 23rd March.
      In order to revive my allowance, I must look for 3 jobs per month and report my partners income every fortnight to mein Jobactive and “Services” Australia brownshirts via their friendly web portal..Fun times xxx

  9. LOL at 6.2% unemployment. Was reminded of the Simpsons episode where Bart changes his report card from D- to A and even Homer can spot that this is not plausible.

  10. The low ball print in the unemployment rate puts the coalition in a pretty bad place.
    They are going to have to now deal with 2 quarters of solid increases of about 1-1.5%.

    IMO it would have been better to show a higher, worst case print then see it decrease over time.

    In any case do matter which way you dress it, the effects are the same. Low income, low spending, low GDP more pain.

  11. Nobody in Australia or the world trust ABS stats any more. Australia has 12/13 million in the work force. Half of those are now on JobKeeper and JobSeeker, yet unemployment up by just 1-2%.. Same goes for auction rates. Entire RE sector is shutdown but auction rates only dropped a few %.. Creative accounting at its best. How can the media/market take these reports so seriously. They should just ignore ABS numbers and just post the % change of people claiming benefits to get true idea.